Ok - Maybe The Bulls Were Right.

[sbn]

NOT!

[NotMyHouse]

You had me going for a moment there, you, you, you, you plucked chicken, you.

[General Melchett]

I hope you washed afterwards, with hot soapy water.

[Harry Monk]

Of course we've reached the bottom. Look how sunny it is, everybody happy, girls out showing off tanned flesh, all is wonderful.

I imagine things won't change at all in October and November etc etc etc by which time we will have another half a million MEWed-up morons on the dole, not getting that BMW and the plasma screen telly paid for by the Benefits Agency.

Time to buy a house everybody!!!

[Jim B.]

You had me going for a moment there, you, you, you, you plucked chicken, you.

And me!

I'm feeling good today. The sun's shining, we can expect another 20% of house prices within the next two years, and Chelsea won the FA Cup.

It does make me laugh, these bulls calling the bottom, I expect it's like this in every crash, but still it's amusing. It's a shame they don't put their money where their mouth is though. Like an extra half million on the dole in the next six months and massive spending cuts are not going to effect house prices. I suppose it keeps them off the streets anyway.

[sbn]

I hope you washed afterwards, with hot soapy water.

Just to confirm

I am not Eminem

[redmen9]

Speaking from a purely selfish perspecive I love to see people show so much optimism towards the whole financial system. When I see nice expensive cars driving down the road with their nice 09 plates I think, well there goes another one that's spunked up their savings (committed themselves to years of debt) which means there's one less who can hopefully compete against me when I want to but a house.

Yes the crisis is over, go out and spend all your money, happy days are here agin......

[Lone_Twin]

Bl00dy hell SBN, I nearly had a heart attack. People at work are wondering why I was shouting NO at my PC.

On another note I know one of my colleagues must look at this site as it welcomed me back (based on my IP address) when I had not yet visited today. So if you are sat on the 7th floor stick your hand up.

I think we may have a whole summer of pumping and ramping trying to get the market going again but unless credit conditions change (and I can't see any particular reason that they should) then the reality is going to be either falls or a very small rise as sucker money is drawn out of the populace.

[RufflesTheGuineaPig]

WE HAVE REACHED THE BULL TRAP!

[Bruce Banner]

I think we may have a whole summer of pumping and ramping trying to get the market going again but unless credit conditions change (and I can't see any particular reason that they should) then the reality is going to be either falls or a very small rise as sucker money is drawn out of the populace.

The rampers trolling this forum have just slipped up .

See link at the bottom of my sig.

[Scott]

WE HAVE REACHED THE BULL TRAP!

That's one of the most sensible posts I've read on this forum in a long time. Short, succinct and has a point.

[sammysnake]

bounce bounce bounce

[Ked]

Just to confirm

I am not Eminem

That's pretty funny...

[Flat Bear]

WE HAVE REACHED THE BULL TRAP!

Yes we are at the hieght of the trap.

Taking just the nationwide figures (which i have taken to be the most accurate over time) we have seen a marked bounce which has not only shown a marked slowdown but an actual rise as I and some others have predicted.

It is very difficult to be accurate with timing, but I am sure this bounce has run its course and the subsequent downturn in prices will be of a higher magnitude than previous. Drops starting in June, July at the latest, quickly accelerating to record falls.

A very good indicator of market sentiment has been some "bears" on this site who have been extremely bullish over the last few months, since January in fact, look back at all the buy now at 30% off (off what ) posts. Recently these posts having been getting less frequent.

What was the reason for this pronounced bounce?

I only realised there would be such a big bounce after reading numerous threads by some of the so called bears on this site. The main (and only?) reason for wanting to buy now instead of later was their money was earning them very little interest, or "burning a hole in their pockets" to be more accurate. The reasoning seemed extremely weak but the fact is so many people felt exactly the same way and the very very low interest rates set by the government had a massive affect much more than many predicted or want to believe.

Other characteristics of this bounce

This bounce has been mainly made up of buyers re-entering the market with sizable deposites or FTB again with sizable deposites. This has had the affect of taking out of the future market larger deposites or cash deposites which will have an adverse affect on short term price rises.

The cruellest but unfortunately a likely senario is interest rates will need to rise sharply and soon as the limited "real" cash left in the system is in higher demand and economic condition dictate rates must rise.

[the primitive]

Of course we've reached the bottom. Look how sunny it is, everybody happy, girls out showing off tanned flesh, all is wonderful.

I imagine things won't change at all in October and November etc etc etc by which time we will have another half a million MEWed-up morons on the dole, not getting that BMW and the plasma screen telly paid for by the Benefits Agency.

Time to buy a house everybody!!!

Brave man persisting with that sig! I am bearish but the Halifax data is surely due a +ve month after the last 2 big -ve ones, unless they are becoming hugely disconnected from the Nationwide.

Bloke at work just bought a house the weekend, at (he says) 25% off peak. Big (30+%) cash deposit after an inheritance, "All the sensible people I talk to (meaning not me ) think this is the time to buy"

We shall see.

[deadman]

Good man sbn.

There are only a small group of us who are unswerving in this.

And we will be vindicated.

[Peter Hun]

It does make me laugh, these bulls calling the bottom, I expect it's like this in every crash, but still it's amusing. It's a shame they don't put their money where their mouth is though.

The funny thing is that last time they did call the bottom, but by that time the nobody was listening any more. When it was at 2.7 average earnings it was obviously the bottom, I knew it but couldn't do anything about it due to my business needs. The bottom of the market last nearly a year I seem to remember.

[Rinoa]

Evening Standard

[moonriver]

There are only a small group of us who are unswerving in this.

And we will be vindicated.

Yes, reading on here lately, the number of dedicated bears, do seem to be getting fewer and fewer.

But looking at all the underlying economic factors, I too am one who remains a firm bear.

And Sbn... Your thread title gave quite a few of us a shock then.

[Flat Bear]

Nationwide raw data

Aug 08 164,654

sept 161,797

oct 158,872

nov 158,442

dec 153,048

(bounce starts)

jan 09 150,501

feb 147,746

march 150,946

april 151,861

may 154,016

Questimated data

june 155,000

(bounce ends)

july 153,000

aug 150,500

sept 147,500

oct 144,000

nov 140,000

dec 135,000

What yer reckon? Have I over/underestimated rate of falls?

Feel free to dig this back up at a future date.

[munimula]

Yes, reading on here lately, the number of dedicated bears, do seem to be getting fewer and fewer.

But looking at all the underlying economic factors, I too am one who remains a firm bear.

And Sbn... Your thread title gave quite a few of us a shock then.

The problem for dedicated bears like myself is that we've been coming here for anything upto 5 years and we're knackered

[munimula]

Questimated data

june 155,000

(bounce ends)

july 153,000

aug 150,500

sept 147,500

oct 144,000

nov 140,000

dec 135,000

What yer reckon? Have I over/underestimated rate of falls?

Feel free to dig this back up at a future date.

I reckon we'll see 20-25% (10-15% pa) falls over a 2-yr period but agree that falls will start again in ernest around July/Aug time once the cash has been sucked out of the cash buyers

[expatowner]

Evening Standard

Spring house price rise leads experts to say worst is over

Jonathan Prynn

A spring bounce in the property market has pushed the average London house price back over the £300,000 mark.

A 1.4 per cent rise in April spurred the average price for a home to £302,411.

Today's official Land Registry figures will be closely monitored by those watching for property green shoots as, unlike other surveys, they cover all transactions.

Nicholas Leeming, director of propertyfinder.com, said: "London often leads the way so good news in the capital is good news for everyone. Confidence in the housing market is at its highest since the credit crunch began and, although the road to recovery may be long, it seems the worst is behind us."

It is the first time the average price has been over £300,000 since January and the highest monthly rise since August 2007, although values are still down 14.3 per cent in a year. Prices in London peaked at £356,257 in January last year. The biggest monthly rises were in the eastern boroughs of Newham (3.2 per cent) and Hackney (2.8 per cent) which are less likely to be affected by the City downturn.

Houses going up in price. Yikes!

[Cozza]

Evening Standard

Surely this article is a joke!

A consortium of estate agents and other VI's give an entirely unbiased perspective to house prices and green shoots.

Troll Rinoa, go out and buy more dog box flats if you believe any of this utter nonsense. Then tell us all about it! Or are you all mouth and no trousers?

[abharrisson]

Nationwide raw data

Aug 08 164,654

sept 161,797

oct 158,872

nov 158,442

dec 153,048

(bounce starts)

jan 09 150,501

feb 147,746

march 150,946

april 151,861

may 154,016

Questimated data

june 155,000

(bounce ends)

july 153,000

aug 150,500

sept 147,500

oct 144,000

nov 140,000

dec 135,000

What yer reckon? Have I over/underestimated rate of falls?

Feel free to dig this back up at a future date.

I wouldn't trust the data if my life depended on it.... all it can surely tell you in the macro with such low volumes of sales is that on balance prices are still falling in patches but by no means nationally or across every house type but that the rate of fall generally might have slowed.... for now..... those predicting a crash of similar shape to the last one, now have less "data" to support their case, those predicting the massive 50% plus falls now have perhaps a wider time frame to reckon with...... looking at affordability we are in a very different place to the 1990's and almost regardless of multiples of wages etc, affordability is a critical factor which too many don't consider deeply enough.