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gruffydd

Taleb Bets On Hyperinflation

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http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/06/01...long-inflation/

A hedge fund firm that reaped huge rewards betting against the market last year is about to open a fund premised on another wager: that the massive stimulus efforts of global governments will lead to hyperinflation.

The firm, Universa Investments L.P., is known for its ties to gloomy investor Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of the 2007 bestseller “The Black Swan,†which describes the impact of extreme events on the world and financial markets.

Funds run by Universa, which is managed and owned by Mr. Taleb’s long-time collaborator Mark Spitznagel, last year gained more than 100% thanks to its bearish bets. Universa now runs about $6 billion, up from the $300 million it began with in January 2007. Earlier this year, Mr. Spitznagel closed several funds to new investors.

Edited by gruffydd

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yes, but what if something unforseen happens, and his prediction is wrong?

If something unforseen happens they print more - if nothing unforseen happens, then printing has been a sucess and therefore they need to print more to make it a bigger success. If the printing isn't working, then, you guessed it, they need to print more. I think you get the drift of where this is going.

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some stuff for the more advanced TFH squad

things like this concern me:

"

Cybersecurity Act of 2009, that would hand the president the power to shut down the entire Internet in the event of a “cybersecurity†crisis.â€

then:

"Once “Internet 2″ is in place, or even the plug is pulled and no internet for a while, getting information, real information, will be next to impossible."

sorry to hijack this hyper-inflation thread. :)

people need more education to see what's coming. :ph34r:

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some stuff for the more advanced TFH squad

things like this concern me:

"

Cybersecurity Act of 2009, that would hand the president the power to shut down the entire Internet in the event of a “cybersecurity†crisis.â€

then:

"Once “Internet 2″ is in place, or even the plug is pulled and no internet for a while, getting information, real information, will be next to impossible."

sorry to hijack this hyper-inflation thread. :)

people need more education to see what's coming. :ph34r:

Very interesting GoM, heres an article from April on CNET

Bill would create national cybersecurity adviser

April 1, 2009 11:24 AM PDT

Bill would create national cybersecurity adviser

by Elinor Mills

----

Two U.S. senators introduced legislation on Wednesday that calls for naming a national cybersecurity adviser who reports directly to the president and who would have the authority to disconnect federal or critical infrastructure networks from the Internet if they were deemed to be at risk of attack.

This proposed legislation comes amid a review ordered by the Obama administration into the government's policies for defending itself against cyberattacks and follows the resignation of Rod Beckström as director of Homeland Security's National Cybersecurity Center in response to what he said was a power grab by the NSA for cybersecurity leadership.

The legislation, proposed by Sen. John D. Rockefeller IV (D-W.Va.) and Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-Maine) would establish an Office of the National Cybersecurity Advisor that would take the lead on Internet security matters and coordinate with the intelligence community and the private sector.

The legislation also calls for the creation of a Cybersecurity Advisory Panel composed of outside experts from industry, academia, and nonprofit groups that would advise the president, as well as creation of a public-private clearinghouse for cyber threat and vulnerability information sharing, establishment of measurable and auditable cybersecurity standards from the National Institute of Standards and Technology. It would also require that cybersecurity professionals be licensed and certified.

In addition, the legislation would require that the cybersecurity adviser conduct a review of the U.S. cybersecurity program every four years and require officials to complete a number of reviews and reports. Officials would be asked to: do a threat and vulnerability assessment of public systems and private sector operated infrastructure; conduct a legal review of the federal statutory and regulatory framework for cybersecurity; complete a report on identity management and civil liberties, and one on risk management that attempts to put a dollar value on cybersecurity threats and includes civil liability and government insurance.

Other provisions of the legislation call for the creation of state and regional cybersecurity centers to help small and midsize businesses adopt security measures, an increase in funding for cybersecurity research and development at the National Science Foundation, and the establishment of a Secure Products and Services Acquisitions Board that would certify that products the government purchases meet security standards it sets.

http://news.cnet.com/8301-13578_3-10209406-38.html

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If you want to hedge against hyperinflation you should buy to let.

exposed.

you are on my igore list, which had no-one on it for 18 months, but since January now has quite a collection of dicks on it. good bye.

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yes, but what if something unforseen happens, and his prediction is wrong?

Presumably being a hedged fund, they are hedged :unsure:

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Yes, but for heaven's sake get a long term fix and a short term lease with the tenant.

Sure, although I'm more talking about investing capital rather than borrowing.

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Very interesting GoM, heres an article from April on CNET

just imagine how you would feel if you were a trader or you had a large str fund or savings in a bank & the internet plug get's pulled.....

off line for a few days even....

totally powerless.

People think that posters like me who frequent TFH sites are bonkers. Then low & behold stuff we have been shouting about for a few years are now being passed or proposed in government legislation.

People do not realise just how dehabilitating the new anti-terror laws are. :ph34r:

bump

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exposed.

you are on my igore list, which had no-one on it for 18 months, but since January now has quite a collection of dicks on it. good bye.

-> :mellow:

Not your best refutation of a good way to invest capital in hyperinflationary times.

A great way to stick your fingers in your ears and shout la-la-la-la, though.

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just imagine how you would feel if you were a trader or you had a large str fund or savings in a bank & the internet plug get's pulled.....

off line for a few days even....

totally powerless.

People think that posters like me who frequent TFH sites are bonkers. Then low & behold stuff we have been shouting about for a few years are now being passed or proposed in government legislation.

People do not realise just how dehabilitating the new anti-terror laws are. :ph34r:

bump

Indeed. Power in the hands of the few always leads to the helplessness of the many, only in retrospect is this realized. Hows the old saying go?... When the people fear the government there is tyranny, when a government fears the people there is freedom.

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Sure, although I'm more talking about investing capital rather than borrowing.

Although Persimmon are offering to fix buyers up with a 100% BTL mortgage (95% loan/shared equity/5% gifted deposit), and arrange the first tennants. They are giving illustration of £550 in mortgage monthly and incoming rent of £800. Nothing to pay at all up front. Purchase price of £179K. I'm sure there's some small print, but my eyesight is crap, so I can't read it. What the hell, where do I sign?

In any case you are probably right about BTL being as good a bet as anything. Cash/savings are disaster. Equities are risky. What do people do with their money to keep it relatively safe? Galling to admit it though.

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Indeed. Power in the hands of the few always leads to the helplessness of the many, only in retrospect is this realized. Hows the old saying go?... When the people fear the government there is tyranny, when a government fears the people there is freedom.

do you know I misread your username as 'Godley' from yesterdays reply I gave you.

I thought it was odd that he was starting to understand what's going on & he isn't normally in agreement with me. I replied anyway thinking he had 'seen the light' so to speak.

Now I can see you are 'godless'

Anyway, to get back on topic, yes that saying is very apt indeed.

It's too late now imo, freedom is but a distant memory. :(

We just have to try to live our own little piece of freedom, in our own way.

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A hedge fund firm that reaped huge rewards betting against the market last year is about to open a fund premised on another wager: that the massive stimulus efforts of global governments will lead to hyperinflation.

I really wish these buggers would say what they actually mean by 'hyperinflation', as it's such a stunningly broad term. I mean, "I'm taking a position to guard against hyperinflation" could mean anything from buying a few commodities to sodding off to some deserted part of Russia with enough survival kit to last a decade, depending on the definition of 'hyperinflation'.

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As with definitions of recession, depression...

And the houseprice crash. Which some numskulls are now claiming never happened :blink:

I would tend to think of hyperinflation as 15% plus.

Edited by gruffydd

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As with definitions of recession, depression...

And the houseprice crash. Which some numskulls are now claiming never happened :blink:

I would tend to think of hyperinflation as 15% plus.

per......

ah well, that's narrowed it down a bit. that's like one of my FTSE predictions. :D

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation

Definitions used by the media vary from a cumulative inflation rate over three years approaching 100% to "inflation exceeding 50% a month." [2] In informal usage the term is often applied to much lower rates. As a rule of thumb, normal inflation is reported per year, but hyperinflation is often reported for much shorter intervals, often per month.

The definition used by most economists is "an inflationary cycle without any tendency toward equilibrium."[citation needed] A vicious circle is created in which more and more inflation is created with each iteration of the cycle.

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Taleb also makes small bets on highly unlikely events.

So the odds are against hyperinflation in that sense.

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Guest Winnie

Taleb is the emperor with no clothes.

I know so many people who have read that book and ended up completely puzzled - which is the essence of having read a pile of bu***t dressed up as ex-trader geek wisdom. Problem is they all seem to think they should think it is clever.

The Black Swan basically states the bleeding obvious in about 280 pages - chance, fate and the unexpected do really exist. Well I never!

He is also probably on the Fed list of people to neutralise/ bring "onside" - along with Roubini and maybe even Meredith.... remember the Fed want us to think there is going to be hyperinflation..............

Taleb is Cramer for intellectuals. :P

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