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I'm Defecting To The Bulls Too

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In the light of the constant stream of reports that started about a month ago I'm now of the opinion that there is no 'dead cat bounce' and that we are near the trough bottom. It may be some time before we see improvements in the economy and house prices may dip a little more before they rise, but I doubt by much.

In fact there's evidence that some economies are already starting to emrge from the recession. For example, take a look at this:

China’s manufacturing expanded for a third month, adding to evidence that the world’s third-largest economy is recovering from its deepest slump in almost a decade.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

So I've changed from a Bear to a Bull.

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you know if the media get onto a site like this and start reading all the recent bears that are buying imagine the headlines..

"housepricecrashexperts are buying

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In the light of the constant stream of reports that started about a month ago I'm now of the opinion that there is no 'dead cat bounce' and that we are near the trough bottom. It may be some time before we see improvements in the economy and house prices may dip a little more before they rise, but I doubt by much.

In fact there's evidence that some economies are already starting to emrge from the recession. For example, take a look at this:

China’s manufacturing expanded for a third month, adding to evidence that the world’s third-largest economy is recovering from its deepest slump in almost a decade.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

So I've changed from a Bear to a Bull.

You highlight the inflationary pressure building in the wider economy not in the housing market. The ONLY way the housing market can recover is if the banks began to lend like they used to in the boom. Are they? Will they?

Suggest you swap back quick sticks.

If you had said 'I am becoming a bull because I believe we have seen the bottom of nominal falls', then that would have some credence.

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In the light of the constant stream of reports that started about a month ago I'm now of the opinion that there is no 'dead cat bounce' and that we are near the trough bottom. It may be some time before we see improvements in the economy and house prices may dip a little more before they rise, but I doubt by much.

In fact there's evidence that some economies are already starting to emrge from the recession. For example, take a look at this:

China’s manufacturing expanded for a third month, adding to evidence that the world’s third-largest economy is recovering from its deepest slump in almost a decade.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

So I've changed from a Bear to a Bull.

Everybody knows that CHina are just busy building roads to nowhere, railways to nowhere and buildings that noone will occupy whilst creating jobs transporting materials and building these things. WHo are they selling to?

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So I've changed from a Bear to a Bull.

Big mistake , if you wanted to switch should of gone to 'neither' first .......

We have had some 'seasonal stability' this period is almost over now and everything is in place for the next leg down :)

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In the light of the constant stream of reports that started about a month ago I'm now of the opinion that there is no 'dead cat bounce' and that we are near the trough bottom. 6...&refer=home[/url]

So I've changed from a Bear to a Bull.

Good for you OP

Didn't I always say 'this time it's different'?

Q:- Will you be investing in a BTL empire?

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so what your saying is; its all sorted now and we'll carry on as we were ... if i didnt know any better id say we're following the map :ph34r:

bubble-lifecycle.jpg

Probably so, except the bottom of the bull trap is just above the mean, and the capitulation/despair phase will be only a tad more than the overshoot - maybe 10-15% more ?

The basic features of that graph are likely correct but the relative heights of those features aren't.

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OP: Interesting.......

bubble-lifecycle.jpg

In the words of Kryten:

'I know that strictly speaking this is only one point, but it is such an important point, I thought it was worth mentioning it twice.'

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In fact there's evidence that some economies are already starting to emrge from the recession. For example, take a look at this:

China’s manufacturing expanded for a third month, adding to evidence that the world’s third-largest economy is recovering from its deepest slump in almost a decade.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

So I've changed from a Bear to a Bull.

I think you are now a Chinese Bull.

For the UK, what bullish signs do you see? Remember the debt is still there but the jobs are still going an a rate of 100K a month.

I've been worried that this was looking like the trough but realised nothing has really changed. Lending is still low, interest rates are still 5+% for any new entrants, the population is ageing and losing their jobs the debt is still at record levels.

My only worry now is how long its going to take.

VMR.

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Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable

GP partner earnings down 2.1% YoY.

And in case you feel tempted to believe Daily Mail headlines, the average is £107,667 pretax this year.

Any sectors showing significant wage inflation?

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you have to take every day as it comes. The market tanks, and you think the world is going to cave in, the sun comes out and the markets go up and you think everyone is going to spend half a million on a 2 bed flat in the outskirts of london.

We still have to live through this recession, the jobs, the high inflation, the high interest rates and the winter months will come eventually.

Right now everything is fine and dandy, yep, but we are living in a bubble (the bailout bubble).

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Well,

I expected a lot of comments like this, but that's OK; I'm not too bothered about arguing my corner, although I see the pound is up another 3 cents against the dollar today too (about 20c in two months). So it looks like quite a few people with money are bullish for the UK's future too.

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In the light of the constant stream of reports that started about a month ago I'm now of the opinion that there is no 'dead cat bounce' and that we are near the trough bottom. It may be some time before we see improvements in the economy and house prices may dip a little more before they rise, but I doubt by much.

In fact there's evidence that some economies are already starting to emrge from the recession. For example, take a look at this:

China’s manufacturing expanded for a third month, adding to evidence that the world’s third-largest economy is recovering from its deepest slump in almost a decade.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

So I've changed from a Bear to a Bull.

Is that a bull on stock prices, house prices or just the general state of the economy ?... I'm of the opinion that stocks have seen their low point already( so I suppose bull) that house prices falls will continue but at a more relaxed pace ( considered bear).

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There never was a house price crash - it was a house SALES crash. But now, apparently, houses are taking an average of 10 weeks to sell. On average they are fetching 90% of the asking price.

I didn't think this a few months ago, but I think it's possible that the market will be back to 2007 prices and activity quite soon. It's a complete mystery to me why this is happening as the economy worsens and unemployment continues to rise.

But don't quite me on this in a few months time if I'm wrong.

Edited by blankster

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Well,

I expected a lot of comments like this, but that's OK; I'm not too bothered about arguing my corner, although I see the pound is up another 3 cents against the dollar today too (about 20c in two months). So it looks like quite a few people with money are bullish for the UK's future too.

Fair enough. But could you at least change your avatar to someone a bit more, well, cheerful and bullish, please, to reflect your new status?

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Probably so, except the bottom of the bull trap is just above the mean, and the capitulation/despair phase will be only a tad more than the overshoot - maybe 10-15% more ?

The basic features of that graph are likely correct but the relative heights of those features aren't.

What mean are you talking about?

I hope you are not referring to the Rightmove graph that has an exponential long term average for house prices going up at a ridiculous angle?

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In the light of the constant stream of reports that started about a month ago I'm now of the opinion that there is no 'dead cat bounce' and that we are near the trough bottom. It may be some time before we see improvements in the economy and house prices may dip a little more before they rise, but I doubt by much.

In fact there's evidence that some economies are already starting to emrge from the recession. For example, take a look at this:

China’s manufacturing expanded for a third month, adding to evidence that the world’s third-largest economy is recovering from its deepest slump in almost a decade.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

So I've changed from a Bear to a Bull.

You are part of the sheeple who joined this site when it was popular to do so (December 2008). Why would you have any credibility? Don't let the door hit you from behind.

Edited by catara

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There never was a house price crash - it was a house SALES crash. But now, apparently, houses are taking an average of 10 weeks to sell.

Given that there are over 900,000 homes for sale on Rightmove alone and fewer than 40,000 transactions are being completed monthly, this seems unlikely.

OP- that's your shout. Mine is that the Autumn and Winter will be a jobs and house price bloodbath and I would have to say the mathematics are on my side.

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So I've changed from a Bear to a Bull.

Hmmm. What does thinking house prices will just remain static count as? Bear, bull or neither? Have you considered taking this position? ;)

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China’s manufacturing expanded for a third month, adding to evidence that the world’s third-largest economy is recovering from its deepest slump in almost a decade.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

So I've changed from a Bear to a Bull.

What you are mistaking here is a bought recovery with a natural sustainable recovery. The Chinese have pumped massive stimulus into the economy a rise in production is to be expected if the state has funded it!.

Have you noticed commodities have been rising as well. This is down to the Chinese buying and stock piling, actual demand is down. Same with the oil markets with above ground storage becoming very scarce due to the stockpiling. It is a gamble and one that requires a crack up boom to make successful but if we get a crack up boom interest rates will be punishing, not a great time to be a debtor!

Good luck with you new bull status, seems you were a bit late arriving to the bear camp anyway if your registration date is anything to go by. :rolleyes:

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:lol::lol::lol:

You make me larf you do! - there should be a minimum post count required to validate a "crossing of the floor"

Otherwise you are a johnny-come-lately and will soon be worried in the presence of welshmen!!!

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You are part of the sheeple who joined this site when it was popular to do so (December 2008). Why would you have any credibility? Don't the the door hit you from behind.

I've noticed a few new bears getting worried. People need to watch how the whole story is unfolding, not just the current chapter. House prices are still way out of sync with fundamentals and rents are still way cheaper than buying (for those without large deposits - ie. most FTBs, the foundations of the market).

Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but turning bullish now is foolish imo. This has years to play out in yet!

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