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babesagainstmachines

The Dollar And Yen

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low in January £1 = £1.35

now £1 = £1.63

In terms of US$ the pound has gained 20% in less than 5 months.

The experts with their straight line graphs will point to a return to £1 = $2 before Christmas.

The media will probably wake up if it does reach £1 = $2. They are still reporting in weak pound mode, e.g. that the weak pound may be a positive factor for Vauxhall jobs in the UK. This volatity is so damaging. How can any business decisions be made in this environment?

Meanwhile the petrol price rises steadily despite the pounds strength. Shafted again.

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Can't speak for the Dollar but with regards to the Yen: Japan seem to be in the same boat as the rest of us and is still using an IR policy of "Lower than every one else in the world".

Considering that many people believe that the only way is "Up" from here with reagrds to UK IR Rates then what we could be seeing now is the "Reset" of the Yen Carry trade.

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Get the popcorn, it's going to be a bumpy ride

Do you mean USD/JPY or do you mean the dollar and the yen individually against the other major currencies? I presume you mean that both are going to drop again?

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Do you mean USD/JPY or do you mean the dollar and the yen individually against the other major currencies? I presume you mean that both are going to drop again?

Individually. Specifically, looking for a reaction to recent bond market action.

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USD's already substantially weakened against all majors (apart from the odd day or two that is ;)); for what little it's worth I think the GM default will firm treasuries (there's now a line under the level of state support and in all probability it's less of a commitment than the worst of the market's fears - and - the news will probably turn it into a selling day for the Dow in general hence a buying day for treasuries); I don't think I'd be increasing a position in anticipation of further weakness (in fact I think I'd be taking profits if I was invested in this market).

Yen's an interesting case; in the long run the GM default isn't good news for Japanese producers; whether the housewives agree today or not... well let's just say they've been making a monkey out of me for a while now...

Edited by ParticleMan

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I've bought dollars today. Just a couple of thousand in notes as I'm making a couple a trips out there over the next year.

Sterling looks ready to top out anytime now. We might have already seen the top at 1.64 already. <_<

Edited by narco

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I've bought dollars today. Just a couple of thousand in notes as I'm making a couple a trips out there over the next year.

Sterling looks ready to top out anytime now. We might have already seen the top at 1.64 already. <_<

I don't think sterling is going to drop back down, I think up to near 1.70 is not unfeasible. Sterling is definitely still recovering from being oversold. The euro may drop back against the dollar. I think it just depends on what currency is currently under the spotlight. They all have horrible fundamentals, so it doesn't really matter. But I think for now sterling's problems are priced in and attention is maybe going to shift away from the dollar for a bit onto the euro. I still say sterling can reach as high as 1.25 Euros.

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I don't think sterling is going to drop back down, I think up to near 1.70 is not unfeasible. Sterling is definitely still recovering from being oversold. The euro may drop back against the dollar. I think it just depends on what currency is currently under the spotlight. They all have horrible fundamentals, so it doesn't really matter. But I think for now sterling's problems are priced in and attention is maybe going to shift away from the dollar for a bit onto the euro. I still say sterling can reach as high as 1.25 Euros.

is the UKs fundamentals really that much better than US/Euro?

the debt to gdp ratio says no

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low in January £1 = £1.35

now £1 = £1.63

In terms of US$ the pound has gained 20% in less than 5 months.

The experts with their straight line graphs will point to a return to £1 = $2 before Christmas.

The media will probably wake up if it does reach £1 = $2. They are still reporting in weak pound mode, e.g. that the weak pound may be a positive factor for Vauxhall jobs in the UK. This volatity is so damaging. How can any business decisions be made in this environment?

Meanwhile the petrol price rises steadily despite the pounds strength. Shafted again.

How much would you have lost now if you followed Jim Rogers advice? (although to be fair he probably didnt say get rid of the pound, stick it on the dollar)

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