Hometrack No Falls No Increase For April

[Sybil13]

Demand spplies brake to HPC

Pretty much what Nationwide said last week.

shortage of new homes for sale has ended house price falls, according to figures published today, adding weight to claims that the market has begun to stabilise.

Hometrack, the housing market analyst, said that the average house price stayed the same from April to May at £155,600, the first time in 20 months that its survey has not shown a month-on-month decline in prices.

While less positive than the 1.2 per cent price rise recorded by Nationwide over the same period, the latest figures support the view that the pace of decline is at least slowing, boosted mostly by an increase in demand relative to a lack of supply. Hometrack said that the number of buyers registering with estate agents was up 21 per cent in the three months to May, while the number of new properties listed increased by only 2.5 per cent.

The average time for a property to stay on the market fell from 10.4 to 9.9 weeks from April to May, while the percentage of postcodes where there had been a price decrease over the past month fell from 32 per cent to 13 per cent. “Aggressive re-pricing†by estate agents was behind an increase in the percentage of the asking price that sellers could hope to achieve, up from 89.6 per cent to 90.3 per cent, Hometrack said. It added that, despite these indicators, the outlook for the housing market remained fragile.

Mortgage and house price data out this week from the Bank of England and Halifax are expected to show a slight increase in mortgage approvals and further evidence that house prices are stabilising, but that the market is still operating at depressed levels.

Richard Donnell, director of research for Hometrack, said: “Overall levels of market activity are well down on what would constitute normal market conditions. The willing purchasers that are returning are largely confined to the more wealthy areas of the country and limited to those buying with cash or who require low loan-to-value mortgages.â€

Rightmove, the property website, said that, while investors were hunting for bargains in the South, the same trend had not emerged as strongly in the North, despite higher numbers of repossessions there.

What the hell does any of this mean? "aggressive re-pricing by estate agents was behind an increase in % of the asking price that sellers could hope to achieve? " Rightmove have confirmed there is a BIG difference between asking and selling price , surely how Rightmove Director Miles Shipside put it is more accurate is it not? (Miles Shipside has been saying since Jan 2009 that sellers need to reduce asking prices 25 -30% from peak).

[

b]Rightmove Index: Raised Asking Price Doing More Harm than Good[/b]

The latest release of Rightmove's house price index shows asking prices on UK property rose 0.9% this month compared to last month.

The report admits that agent's are being forced to up initial advertising prices to win new instructions, amid the fierce competition for the few quality properties that are currently being put onto the market.

That makes the asking price rise, for me, more like bad news than good news. I understand that agent's are trying to survive in a difficult market, but we need to firm out the price drops that we have had, before we can ascertain if they are enough to bring the market to bottom, and accelerate any further drop that may be necessary

In short, by humouring unrealistic vendors over asking prices, agents may be doing nothing more than prolonging their own misery.

The report also said that lack of mortgage availability is hindering market recovery as sellers who have dealt with the market reality and drastically dropped their asking price are faced with buyers unable to obtain finance. Rightmove commercial director Miles Shipside said:

"Some sellers are still pricing wishfully high, though it is encouraging that elements of the market have adapted relatively quickly to find a new price floor at a discount of around 25% from peak. "

"Until banks get their own houses in order, the active minority of sellers and agents who have drastically adjusted pricing will remain frustrated by the limited functioning of the financial services sector."

So, after its initial optimism the Rightmove index enforces the realisation that the UK property market recovery hinges on two things: vendor realism and mortgage availability. The latter more than likely hinged on a recovery to the wider UK economy, which in my opinion is also necessary to increase buyer numbers sufficiently to bring vendor realism

The article above also says:

The willing purchasers that are returning are largely confined to the more wealthy areas of the country and limited to those buying with cash or who require low loan-to-value mortgages.â€

Doesn't sound like a great basis for talking about "green shoots" does it.

I assume BOE and CML keep saying "the green shoots have no roots" because for prices to stop falling mortgage approvals need to double but there is little chance of approvals doubling with mortgage lending down nearly 2/3rds due to the closure of the RMBS market and lenders now reliant on dwindling deposits.

Hometrack said last month :

"......that the recent pick-up in demand is largely seasonal and unlikely to be sustained over the rest of the year."

[the end is a bit nigher]

'aggressive repricing' is also known as dropping your price! - strange that, prices fall and properties start to sell

what the lack of supply is saying is that people are realising that to sell they need to be much more realistic about prices i.e. drop them - there is a realisation that high prices have gone and for reasons we already know, many people just can't afford to sell

this crash is now well and truly embedded

[cashinmattress]

Demand spplies brake to HPC

Doesn't sound like a great basis for talking about "green shoots" does it.

Why bother to argue about the existence of the 'green shoots'? We all know the economy is fvcked. The fundamentals just get worse every day. Don't confuse a sunny weekend in the summer for an economic rebound.

The only people that are pumping out the propaganda and rhetoric are those trying to sell before the rest of the pyramid collapses.

[Sybil13]

'aggressive repricing' is also known as dropping your price! - strange that, prices fall and properties start to sell

what the lack of supply is saying is that people are realising that to sell they need to be much more realistic about prices i.e. drop them - there is a realisation that high prices have gone and for reasons we already know, many people just can't afford to sell

this crash is now well and truly embedded

Problem being that the "aggressive repricing " was UP> That is what the article is saying isn't it, the same as Miles Shipside said, it is the EA's that are putting the prices up telling sellers THIS IS THE PRICE YOU MIGHT BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE. Problem is that only a VERY few achieve it, the rest just sit there, and one assumes it is the few that achieve it that are skewing the figures . Was surprised to see that the TOM was only about 10 weeks, I thought the average was about 26 ?

“

Aggressive re-pricing†by estate agents was behind an increase in the percentage of the asking price that sellers could hope to achieve, up from 89.6 per cent to 90.3 per cent, Hometrack said. It added that, despite these indicators, the outlook for the housing market remained fragile.

Edited May 31, 2009 by Sybil13

[indirectapproach]

“Was surprised to see that the TOM was only about 10 weeksâ€

Agreed, that seems surprisingly short.

[Timm]

"Demand spplies brake to HPC"

Pretty much what Nationwide said last week.

Yes, and it is exactly what those of us that have been reporting what has been happening on the ground (and been dismissed as bullish anecdotealists) have been saying since Feb.

If you have 100 sellers and 90 buyers, then prices will fall. If you have 20 sellers and 30 buyers, then prices will rise.

Structural pressures are still bearing downwards on price, but the market is currently being manipulated upwards.

[Sybil13]

Thoought I would add this article in relation to Hometrack and Nationwide figures as it offers info for newbies and bears of little brain like myself about what each index measures:

What Are House Prices Really Doing

In spite of some commentators talking about house prices bottoming out and green shoots of recovery appearing, the predictions vary widely.

To take just a sample of the indices in the last week or so, the Centre for Economics and Business Research says the end is in sight for the housing slump, though the average price has a further 8% to fall. This is modest compared with Jones Lang LaSalle which is forecasting that UK house prices could fall by another 14% before the end of the year as the impact of rising unemployment hits sales and household finances...............

..................It might be an old chestnut but it unfortunately remains true - don't read too much into one month's figures,’ warned Liam Bailey, head of residential research at Knight Frank. ‘I think in the wider UK there is still another 10% to go. The economy is in such bad shape and unemployment is rising.’

....................Halifax and Nationwide weight their figures so that they are measuring the same kind of properties in the basket each month,’ says Bailey. ‘We do the same with our indices.’

The Land Registry figures are at least six months out of date because that is the average time it takes for prices to be logged and its figures vary from those compiled by the mortgage lenders because the Land Registry includes unmortgaged properties whereas the lenders’ indices are based on mortgage advances.

The difference between the Halifax and Nationwide’s figures is easy to explain. Both are based on the lenders’ own lending figures, but because Nationwide’s lending is more heavily weighted to London and the South East than Halifax, which has a more even spread nationally, there are bound to be discrepancies.

House prices move at a different pace depending on geographical area, local supply and demand, and the type of property. Values can even vary from one side of a street to the other if there is a railway line running behind the houses on one side.

Then you have indices from property websites like Hometrack which measure asking prices – not the same thing at all as actual selling prices. Hometrack reckons house prices are down only 10.1% over the year to April 2009 – though this probably reflects homesellers’ optimism more than reality.

Hometrack’s figures are based on a wide sample of estate agents and they give the number of viewings, the time it takes to sell, the asking price and the price achieved. Some believe it is a much better indication of what is really happening in the market.

Hometrack sends out a questionnaire every month to over 6,000 agents, and covers every post code in the country. Because the questions are the same every month, the replies can be compared with previous responses and provide a good indication of whether prices are going up or down for various property types.

The survey from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors is based on chartered surveyors’ estimates of what is happening in their specific area and has become progressively less negative in recent months, with enquiries by potential home buyers increasing for the sixth consecutive month.....................

.............But don’t let the ‘green shoots’ brigade confuse you. Agents are still selling less than one home per week and the vast majority - some 60% - say prices are falling. Forecasts from RICs agents are getting better but 43% still expect prices to fall.

The difficulty with the Halifax and Nationwide indices is that they are averages and cover the whole country,’ says Dominic Agace of estate agent, Winkworth. ‘But having said that if you talk to any of our offices they would tell you that prices are off anything up to 25% to 30% compared with the peak.’

But if you think agents are under pricing your home for a quick sale, trust your own judgment. And don’t take your property off the market until you have exchanged contracts. The buyer may not be able to raise a mortgage.

This would fit in with what Miles Shipside Rightmove said that even when sellers and agenst show have "DRASTICALLY" adjusted pricing remain frustrated. And what Hometrack said that it is only the cash rich and those with BIG deposits who are buying :

"Some sellers are still pricing wishfully high, though it is encouraging that elements of the market have adapted relatively quickly to find a new price floor at a discount of around 25% from peak. "

"Until banks get their own houses in order, the active minority of sellers and agents who have drastically adjusted pricing will remain frustrated by the limited functioning of the financial services sector."

Edited June 1, 2009 by Sybil13

[Valerius]

Yes, and it is exactly what those of us that have been reporting what has been happening on the ground (and been dismissed as bullish anecdotealists) have been saying since Feb.

If you have 100 sellers and 90 buyers, then prices will fall. If you have 20 sellers and 30 buyers, then prices will rise.

Structural pressures are still bearing downwards on price, but the market is currently being manipulated upwards.

And it is going to get worse.

Many sellers are holding off putting their properties on the market waiting for better times, especially the desirable property owners.

While all the same some STRs will try to find a safe heaven for their cash once inflation kicks in, and FTBs will be wary of "missing the boat".

There is only way for HPI and it is UP.

Edited June 1, 2009 by Valerius

[cashinmattress]

And it is going to get worse.

Many sellers are holding off putting their properties on the market waiting for better times, especially the desirable property owners.

While all the same some STRs will try to find a safe heaven for their cash once inflation kicks in, and FTBs will be wary of "missing the boat".

There is only way for HPI and it is UP.

Hmm. Dubious logic as per usual.

A knife edge is a better analogy. These 'sellers' on the edge; one cold winter; a few IR base rate rises, rising fuel costs, food and consumer inflation, one job loss or wage cut...the list goes on.

The real problem is people like you. With all the sound advice and good market analysis available here, you still hold onto the bubble mentality and pimp the mantra like some medieval priest. Anybody listening to your advice is being subjected to propaganda, plain and simple, and they will be worse off for it. Your vested interests are clouding the reality of the situation, and I hope that nobody outside of this forum has to listen to you and your ilk's bad advice. Sure it will be a bitter pill for people to swallow if they lose some 'equity' or even part of a down payment, but if it gets them out of the downward spiral, don't you think they will be better off for it? Why do you lot want to see the world burn? I never understand that, unless you are selling fire extinguishers.

There is only one way for HPI, with the precondition being a stable and growing world economy which we most definitely DO NOT HAVE. In a failed economy like ours, HPI becomes HPC, and for the forseable future the only way is DOWN.

Back in your hole.

[Dr Renter]

And it is going to get worse.

Many sellers are holding off putting their properties on the market waiting for better times, especially the desirable property owners.

While all the same some STRs will try to find a safe heaven for their cash once inflation kicks in, and FTBs will be wary of "missing the boat".

There is only way for HPI and it is UP.

And what happens when all of these waiting sellers put their houses on the Market? And as for the FTBers. It doesn't matter if they Are scared of missing the boat, they can't afford a deposit and can't afford a house.

[thecrashingisles]

Problem being that the "aggressive repricing " was UP> That is what the article is saying isn't it, the same as Miles Shipside said, it is the EA's that are putting the prices up telling sellers THIS IS THE PRICE YOU MIGHT BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE. Problem is that only a VERY few achieve it, the rest just sit there, and one assumes it is the few that achieve it that are skewing the figures . Was surprised to see that the TOM was only about 10 weeks, I thought the average was about 26 ?

Aggressive re-pricing†by estate agents was behind an increase in the percentage of the asking price that sellers could hope to achieve, up from 89.6 per cent to 90.3 per cent, Hometrack said. It added that, despite these indicators, the outlook for the housing market remained fragile.

I think that means that people are achieving a higher percentage of their asking price by dropping the asking price to start with.

[ccc]

One of the main stories on the BBC news.

Now correct me if I am wrong - but I can't remember the hometrack figures ever getting headline news on the BBC breakfast news ?

Unless I have missed it - I don't think it ever really gets mentioned.

Those BBC execs with their BTL's muct be getting anxious !!

[Dr Renter]

There is only way for HPI and it is UP.

Love this quote. You Sir are a genius. Think I'll have a go. I'll predict that today rivers will run downstream.

[Sybil13]

Love this quote. You Sir are a genius. Think I'll have a go. I'll predict that today rivers will run downstream.

And I predict that Sibly will contd posting on HPC .

What is more I will reveal that Mc Tavish's wife posts the REALLY bearish comments on HPC to make sure he doesn't come to bed!

[cashinmattress]

And I predict that Sibly will contd posting on HPC .

What is more I will reveal that Mc Tavish's wife posts the REALLY bearish comments on HPC to make sure he doesn't come to bed!

More like McSpamish's wife is over at the neighbors making Mr Smith's asset rise, as she is most certainly not getting it with all the time he spends ranting on here.

[the end is a bit nigher]

Problem being that the "aggressive repricing " was UP> That is what the article is saying isn't it, the same as Miles Shipside said, it is the EA's that are putting the prices up telling sellers T

I think that means that people are achieving a higher percentage of their asking price by dropping the asking price to start with.

I read it in the same way as thecrashingisldes

Yes, and it is exactly what those of us that have been reporting what has been happening on the ground (and been dismissed as bullish anecdotealists) have been saying since Feb.

If you have 100 sellers and 90 buyers, then prices will fall. If you have 20 sellers and 30 buyers, then prices will rise.

Structural pressures are still bearing downwards on price, but the market is currently being manipulated upwards.

As long as the buyers have the money to pay the asking prices. If 12m buyers are competing for one house but the most anyone can afford is £5, then there is demand for the house at £5. The house could be said to be worth £5. Just because there are 12m people after it doesn't mean it is worth any more.

And it is going to get worse.

Many sellers are holding off putting their properties on the market waiting for better times, especially the desirable property owners.

While all the same some STRs will try to find a safe heaven for their cash once inflation kicks in, and FTBs will be wary of "missing the boat".

There is only way for HPI and it is UP.

Firstly, why would they be that stupid as to hold off? If they are looking to trade up then a general market rise will cost them. In the mantime they put their lives on hold. Secondly, if they all suddenly flood the market as is looking more and more likely then they will just depress prices further.

[Prof]

And it is going to get worse.

Many sellers are holding off putting their properties on the market waiting for better times, especially the desirable property owners.

While all the same some STRs will try to find a safe heaven for their cash once inflation kicks in, and FTBs will be wary of "missing the boat".

There is only way for HPI and it is UP.

I think that you meant "There is only one way for house prices, and that is UP."

Personally, I think that house prices will go up a bit, down a bit, up a bit, down a bit for quite some time. I also think that the price trend over the next couple of years will be DOWN.

[Sybil13]

The average time for a property to stay on the market fell from 10.4 to 9.9 weeks from April to May, while the percentage of postcodes where there had been a price decrease over the past month fell from 32 per cent to 13 per cent. “Aggressive re-pricing†by estate agents was behind an increase in the percentage of the asking price that sellers could hope to achieve, up from 89.6 per cent to 90.3 per cent, Hometrack said. It added that, despite these indicators, the outlook for the housing market remained fragile.

I think that means that people are achieving a higher percentage of their asking price by dropping the asking price to start with.

OK so what we are saying is that previously sellers were achieving 89.6% of the asking price but now they are getting 90.3% BECAUSE they have lowered the asking price in the first place, yet how does that work when RM show asking prices going UP 4 months in a row?

Hometrack like RM is based on ASKING price isn't it, which again has me confused because how can their average asking price be 30% lower than RM's? So what are we saying that if average asking price for Hometrack is £155600 then average selling is what 10.4% lower or (see below) 25 - 30% lower?

I know the article about Hometrack said:

The difficulty with the Halifax and Nationwide indices is that they are averages and cover the whole country,’ says Dominic Agace of estate agent, Winkworth. ‘But having said that if you talk to any of our offices they would tell you that prices are off anything up to 25% to 30% compared with the peak.’

[grey shark]

Demand spplies brake to HPC

Check out this freak in the comments of the article ............

Many of these comments come from the grumpy folks at housepricecrash.co.uk . I actually happen to agree that houseprices have not reached their bottom yet, but their semi-crazed "government conspiracy" nonsense really doesn't help. 'Vested Interest' is their favourite way to discredit a story.

Marcos Scriven, London,

Edited June 1, 2009 by grey shark

[Sybil13]

Check out this freak in the comments of the article ............

Many of these comments come from the grumpy folks at housepricecrash.co.uk . I actually happen to agree that houseprices have not reached their bottom yet, but their semi-crazed "government conspiracy" nonsense really doesn't help. 'Vested Interest' is their favourite way to discredit a story.

Marcos Scriven, London,

"Vested Interest" is their favourite way to discredit a story reported with a distinct VI slant. VI = bullsh*t or bear facts?

Ah well let people decide for themselves if HPC is based on "semi-crazed "government conspiracy" nonsense".....

I wonder what he thinks would help the reporters to present a far more balanced picture rather than perpetually TALKING UP the market? Is it not in the VI of the country for property to fall to sustainable levels and to start to deal with the consequences of a property bubble that has left the country bankrupt.

Edited June 1, 2009 by Sybil13