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Jonnybegood

The Market Bottom

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What is the bottom of the market? I am noticing recently a number of long time HPCers returning to the market having achieved what they feel is a good price below 2007 peak prices.

This is exactly the way I understand the way the market finds it's bottom, its people who buy in and actually go about setting the bottom, if enough do this then sales increase and it seems everyone is happy to buy at this particular price, and I mean everyone.....all need to be on board sellers, buyers, lenders, surveyors etc etc.

There are some on here who will criticise those for buying back in, still a further 20% to go etc etc, but not everyones idea of the bottom is the same.

Take a couple who STR, they may be happy to buy back in at 25% below peak if they find a property they have always wanted and rarely come onto the market, this coupled with a low IR on savings may make perfect sense now.

A FTB with a nice deposit getting nothing in a savings account may be happy to snap up a property now whilst IR are pretty good and fixing for 10 years is available, No stamp duty, No more rent and builders throwing property at you with all sorts of incentives.

A BTL may be happy to wait for the correction to take its full course, happy to buy anywhere as long as the price is right, looking to make a return long term in place of a pension, hoping for something 40-50% below peak and no rush to buy.

Its similar to the new year sales, you get down the shop at 6am boxing day morning and there is plenty of choice at 30% off everything in store, you wait and the following week its 40% off everything in store and then you wait for the final reductions 2 weeks after the sale started at 50% off, however there is nothing there you like, all the good stuff has gone and you are left with the c*ap, this suits some people as they are not really concerned with what they buy, however some like to have a choice and prepared to pay slightly more for that privilege, rather than buy something that nobody else wants.

How many missed the bottom thinking the stock market was going to go lower? Yes it may fall back but you did miss the opportunity at the time no matter what happens going forward

Edited by Jonnybegood

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I wont buy until I can get a 5 bed detached for 50 pence.

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What is the bottom of the market? I am noticing recently a number of long time HPCers returning to the market having achieved what they feel is a good price below 2007 peak prices.

This is exactly the way I understand the way the market finds it's bottom, its people who buy in and actually go about setting the bottom, if enough do this then sales increase and it seems everyone is happy to buy at this particular price, and I mean everyone.....all need to be on board sellers, buyers, lenders, surveyors etc etc.

There are some on here who will criticise those for buying back in, still a further 20% to go etc etc, but not everyones idea of the bottom is the same.

Take a couple who STR, they may be happy to buy back in at 25% below peak if they find a property they have always wanted and rarely come onto the market, this coupled with a low IR on savings may make perfect sense now.

A FTB with a nice deposit getting nothing in a savings account may be happy to snap up a property now whilst IR are pretty good and fixing for 10 years is available, No stamp duty, No more rent and builders throwing property at you with all sorts of incentives.

A BTL may be happy to wait for the correction to take its full course, happy to buy anywhere as long as the price is right, looking to make a return long term in place of a pension, hoping for something 40-50% below peak and no rush to buy.

Its similar to the new year sales, you get down the shop at 6am boxing day morning and there is plenty of choice at 30% off everything in store, you wait and the following week its 40% off everything in store and then you wait for the final reductions 2 weeks after the sale started at 50% off, however there is nothing there you like, all the good stuff has gone and you are left with the c*ap, this suits some people as they are not really concerned with what they buy, however some like to have a choice and prepared to pay slightly more for that privilege, rather than buy something that nobody else wants.

How many missed the bottom thinking the stock market was going to go lower? Yes it may fall back but you did miss the opportunity at the time no matter what happens going forward

You're out.

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The longer you wait into the crash the better the properties will become. If you have a fixed budget and houses become cheaper then you're going to get nicer stuff for the same price.

Its not true though, if 5 bed detached were selling for £300k in a particular area of Newcastle at peak and now selling for £240k and there is enough people happy to pay £240k and wanting a 5 bed detached then the price will go no lower and could possibly rise.

If this particular area rarely sees 5 beds on the market, then you have missed out.

The only way the properties get better if prices continue to fall, however I see signs that lending etc is starting to stabilise and the sudden shock of the last 18mths starting to pass.

The only property that goes right to the bottom is the stuff nobody wants, either cause its to expensive (limited market) or its cr*p (Area, crime levels, schools etc).

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