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DownsizingDiva

Nationwide Or Lr - Which Would You Trust?

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So Nationwide's figures are largely as expected (by bears and bulls alike). It is spring. The sun is shining, there is an amount of "pent up demand" etc. etc. etc. BUT:

Why take the figures of a VI as a true indicator?

Why don't the "sheeple" track Land Registry figures? (and I include the media in this definition of the "Sheeple"). The LR figures are the ONLY reliable source of House Price Data, as they are SOLD prices. They cannot be manipulated. OK, they don't include repossessions etc. so have to be viewed with caution, but compared to Haliwide figures, are far more reliable.

Unfortunately, I think I know the answer - and this is what I find extremely worrying: The vast majority of the government are VIs. They are multiple homeowners, many of whom probably have BTL portfolios, (as do the EAs who are desperately trying to talk the market upwards).

Of course the price of any "commodity" (because unfortunately that is what houses have become) does not go up or down in a straight line.

I believe the difference between this house price crash and previous ones will be the influence of the VIs in creating a "false confidence" - the "sheeple" will fall for it, and the rest of us will have to sit by and watch as prices rise once again.

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neither.

the places is so messed up, they can't tell the truth now.

No - Land Registry figures do tell the truth. I track properties on RM and check LR figs. Current data suggests prices are on a steady downward roll.

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So Nationwide's figures are largely as expected (by bears and bulls alike). It is spring. The sun is shining, there is an amount of "pent up demand" etc. etc. etc. BUT:

Why take the figures of a VI as a true indicator?

Why don't the "sheeple" track Land Registry figures? (and I include the media in this definition of the "Sheeple"). The LR figures are the ONLY reliable source of House Price Data, as they are SOLD prices. They cannot be manipulated. OK, they don't include repossessions etc. so have to be viewed with caution, but compared to Haliwide figures, are far more reliable.

Unfortunately, I think I know the answer - and this is what I find extremely worrying: The vast majority of the government are VIs. They are multiple homeowners, many of whom probably have BTL portfolios, (as do the EAs who are desperately trying to talk the market upwards).

Of course the price of any "commodity" (because unfortunately that is what houses have become) does not go up or down in a straight line.

I believe the difference between this house price crash and previous ones will be the influence of the VIs in creating a "false confidence" - the "sheeple" will fall for it, and the rest of us will have to sit by and watch as prices rise once again.

Always trust whichever indicator is pointing downward the most at that point in time.

Anything else pointing upwards can not be trusted and should be discarded immediately.

Never let the facts get in the way. Ever. Follow the HPC crowd. Blindly. :blink:

Edited by Valerius

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No - Land Registry figures do tell the truth. I track properties on RM and check LR figs. Current data suggests prices are on a steady downward roll.

DO LR show every property sold?

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So Nationwide's figures are largely as expected (by bears and bulls alike). It is spring. The sun is shining, there is an amount of "pent up demand" etc. etc. etc. BUT:

Why take the figures of a VI as a true indicator?

Why don't the "sheeple" track Land Registry figures? (and I include the media in this definition of the "Sheeple"). The LR figures are the ONLY reliable source of House Price Data, as they are SOLD prices. They cannot be manipulated. OK, they don't include repossessions etc. so have to be viewed with caution, but compared to Haliwide figures, are far more reliable.

Unfortunately, I think I know the answer - and this is what I find extremely worrying: The vast majority of the government are VIs. They are multiple homeowners, many of whom probably have BTL portfolios, (as do the EAs who are desperately trying to talk the market upwards).

Of course the price of any "commodity" (because unfortunately that is what houses have become) does not go up or down in a straight line.

I believe the difference between this house price crash and previous ones will be the influence of the VIs in creating a "false confidence" - the "sheeple" will fall for it, and the rest of us will have to sit by and watch as prices rise once again.

I trust both - since I'm sufficiently analytical to factor in the weakness in method of both when drawing conclusions.

I mistrust media reports of either, because the media refuse to factor in any subtlety in numbers becasue they assume that because few editors or journalists are good at sums their audience are neither interested or capable of understanding.

Don't need to consider VI's, governments or other forms of paranoia. Simple stupidity is sufficient explanation.

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compared to Haliwide figures, are far more reliable.

Approvals are a leading indicator, haliwide indices are a current-ish snapshot, LR is a lagging indicator.

All are useful, none are perfect.

I believe the difference between this house price crash and previous ones will be the influence of the VIs in creating a "false confidence" - the "sheeple" will fall for it, and the rest of us will have to sit by and watch as prices rise once again.

There is no such thing as "false" confidence. And besides, consumer confidence is a self fulfilling prophecy.

This is not about sheeple falling for anything. This is not even about one set of vested interests for HPI competing with another set of vested interests for HPC. (although that does currently mask the real issues)

This is simply about how long the present, and temporary, downwards pressures can hold back the well established and multi decadal upwards trend of HPI.

Long term, HPI will not stop until population growth ceases, or building exceeds growth. Neither of which will happen in my lifetime.

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Approvals are a leading indicator, haliwide indices are a current-ish snapshot, LR is a lagging indicator.

All are useful, none are perfect.

There is no such thing as "false" confidence. And besides, consumer confidence is a self fulfilling prophecy.

This is not about sheeple falling for anything. This is not even about one set of vested interests for HPI competing with another set of vested interests for HPC. (although that does currently mask the real issues)

This is simply about how long the present, and temporary, downwards pressures can hold back the well established and multi decadal upwards trend of HPI.

Long term, HPI will not stop until population growth ceases, or building exceeds growth. Neither of which will happen in my lifetime.

Hamish is right

"Approvals are a leading indicator, haliwide indices are a current-ish snapshot, LR is a lagging indicator, All are useful, none are perfect."

apart from that his rant is of course just a wind up.

Anwyay, the indices are interesting but no-one should serously get out a ruler and start drawing straight line predictions from anything right now. The biggest reason being the very low volumes mean skewed figures in either direction are highly probable.

Another reason is the recession is far from over. Watch the press and markets Monday is all I say, something big is about to happen and could set it all back into a downward spiral even further.

Ho-hum, time to buy a gun, and duck tape and water and food and hole up for a few years.

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Hamish is right

Watch the press and markets Monday is all I say, something big is about to happen and could set it all back into a downward spiral even further.

Ho-hum, time to buy a gun, and duck tape and water and food and hole up for a few years.

Any clues on what we should be looking for on Monday then? Go on give us a clue - I will be too busy sunbathing to notice as the temperature on Monday in London is apparently going to bE 26C.

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Hamish is right

"Approvals are a leading indicator, haliwide indices are a current-ish snapshot, LR is a lagging indicator, All are useful, none are perfect."

apart from that his rant is of course just a wind up.

Anwyay, the indices are interesting but no-one should serously get out a ruler and start drawing straight line predictions from anything right now. The biggest reason being the very low volumes mean skewed figures in either direction are highly probable.

<SNIP>

Indeed. The interesting thing about the Nationwide bounce is that has only managed to take place with the lowest Interest Rates for 300 years and with it being spring.

One key thing to consider is that Mortgage advances are through the floor, and this clearly results in fewer transactions. I don't think this will be making much cheer for estate agents just yet.

My feeling is that this is the bull trap, and that there is at least another 20% to fall. The market has to clear and it isn't going to do so operating at current volumes.

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