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MrB

Frank Veneroso On Nakedcapitalism

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http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/05/fra...rs-are-too.html

Ineresting reading for those minded for such things.

Coparisons with reession troughs and stock market troughs (i.e which comes first). Can the stock market predict the business cycle lows? It seems in big bear markets the business cycle troughs before the stock market. Those looking for stock market prescience may be disappointed.

It seems that there are a lot of bullish traders; bearish corporate insiders. The question is, who is right?

"Traders are screamingly bullish, possibly reflecting extreme confidence that an economic recovery is around the corner. At the other extreme corporate insiders with their fingers on the pulse of business activity seem to be quite pessimistic. This pattern suggests that stock market

“players†are anticipating an immediate and meaningful economic recovery even though it is not

yet apparent in reports on business conditions. This stands in contrast to the majority of the big, bad recessions and/or big bad bear markets when eaten up investors waited for at least some evidence of economic recovery before aggressively bidding up stock prices. "

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