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LazyDay

Wsj: Treasury Forecasts Politically Influenced

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http://rassegnastampa.mef.gov.it/mefintern...009052212826069

"The U.K. Treasury forecasts in the budget conveniently showed debt peaking at 79% of gross domestic product, just under the 80% ievei that wouid usualiy trigger a downgrade adding to the suspicion that the forecasts were poiiticaliy infiuenced. S&P doesn't beiieve the Treasury's figures. It expects U.K. borrowing to hit 100% of GDP and remain there for many years, based on a taxpayer final bili for baiiing out the banking sys tem that is roughiy twice the Treasury's iow-baii estimates."

Edited by LazyDay

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http://rassegnastampa.mef.gov.it/mefintern...009052212826069

"The U.K. Treasury forecasts in the budget conveniently showed debt peaking at 79% of gross domestic product, just under the 80% ievei that wouid usualiy trigger a downgrade adding to the suspicion that the forecasts were poiiticaliy infiuenced. S&P doesn't beiieve the Treasury's figures. It expects U.K. borrowing to hit 100% of GDP and remain there for many years, based on a taxpayer final bili for baiiing out the banking sys tem that is roughiy twice the Treasury's iow-baii estimates."

Not to say that thw Wall Street Journal itself is politically influenced too by the guy who owns it and thinks of himself as a king maker - Rupert Mardoch

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Not to say that thw Wall Street Journal itself is politically influenced too by the guy who owns it and thinks of himself as a king maker - Rupert Mardoch

I would agree on that. S&P are no angels either. However, I would put more trust in the S&P projections and not the Treasury's figures in this case.

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I would agree on that. S&P are no angels either. However, I would put more trust in the S&P projections and not the Treasury's figures in this case.

Neither predicted the mess we have gotten into.

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Neither predicted the mess we have gotten into.

The minority of Hedge funds which did predict the mess and acted on their predictions stand out now. The gain did not come without a lot of pain to them, however.

If you are not prepared to bear the possibility of pain, S&P predictions are as good a forecast as it gets.

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