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BigSack

Another Piper Down...

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Guys, thought you'd be interested to know that we've bought a house in North Berwick, after giving up looking in Edinburgh after 2 years. We saw a great family home in a great location so we just went for it.

I know it is a stupid time to buy (I always swore I'd never buy in the spring!) but there isn't much on the market in North Berwick so we thought we might have to wait a long time for another similar property to come up. We got a really good price for it (at the moment) but I know it will probably be worth half that in 5 years time. Oh well, we'll be there for years and we've got a pretty small mortgage on it so I'm not really that bothered. Our rented place was doing our heads in and the kids need a garden!

Good luck with your house/flat purchases, hope you ride out the crash better than me!

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Guest An Bearin Bui
Guys, thought you'd be interested to know that we've bought a house in North Berwick, after giving up looking in Edinburgh after 2 years. We saw a great family home in a great location so we just went for it.

I know it is a stupid time to buy (I always swore I'd never buy in the spring!) but there isn't much on the market in North Berwick so we thought we might have to wait a long time for another similar property to come up. We got a really good price for it (at the moment) but I know it will probably be worth half that in 5 years time. Oh well, we'll be there for years and we've got a pretty small mortgage on it so I'm not really that bothered. Our rented place was doing our heads in and the kids need a garden!

Good luck with your house/flat purchases, hope you ride out the crash better than me!

Good news - glad to hear of another HPC-er who has found a nice family home (NOT investment) for themselves with an affordable mortgage.

How much of a % discount did you get off peak prices? Have to say I'm stlll seeing a lot of denial out there in Edinburgh. I was looking at plots of land recently and they were asking 120k for someone's back garden in Tranent!! I would have thought land prices would be down a lot by now. Oh well... :rolleyes:

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Good news - glad to hear of another HPC-er who has found a nice family home (NOT investment) for themselves with an affordable mortgage.

How much of a % discount did you get off peak prices? Have to say I'm stlll seeing a lot of denial out there in Edinburgh. I was looking at plots of land recently and they were asking 120k for someone's back garden in Tranent!! I would have thought land prices would be down a lot by now. Oh well... :rolleyes:

Thanks. We got about 15% off peak price, which is pretty good I reckon considering detached family homes haven't fallen as much as the average.

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Well done! We just bought too but I am looking forward to moving in to our house soon!

Only consolation for us is that we avoided the peak by a bit! Still in a coupl eof years when the prices have halved will be cheaper to trade up!

Edited by roblpm

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Guys, thought you'd be interested to know that we've bought a house in North Berwick, after giving up looking in Edinburgh after 2 years. We saw a great family home in a great location so we just went for it.

I know it is a stupid time to buy (I always swore I'd never buy in the spring!) but there isn't much on the market in North Berwick so we thought we might have to wait a long time for another similar property to come up. We got a really good price for it (at the moment) but I know it will probably be worth half that in 5 years time. Oh well, we'll be there for years and we've got a pretty small mortgage on it so I'm not really that bothered. Our rented place was doing our heads in and the kids need a garden!

Good luck with your house/flat purchases, hope you ride out the crash better than me!

Turn coat one should rent that pig stye for at least another 5 years then once house prices have went down 99.9 % one should leave the rented pig stye, then bye, then prey for hpi :lol:

opps fly in the ointment with this plan :angry:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8073157.stm

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Turn coat one should rent that pig stye for at least another 5 years then once house prices have went down 99.9 % one should leave the rented pig stye, then bye, then prey for hpi :lol:

opps fly in the ointment with this plan :angry:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8073157.stm

Yep, as predicted:

Money-Week_clip_image001.jpg

It all looks textbook so far, going by this graph. Prices should rise for a bit, then carnage. I'm betting on the end of this year when the carnage starts.

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Yep, as predicted:

Money-Week_clip_image001.jpg

It all looks textbook so far, going by this graph. Prices should rise for a bit, then carnage. I'm betting on the end of this year when the carnage starts.

Great that youve found a nice place-best of luck!

It seems that a reasonable no. of people are getting back into the market after being fed-up with renting and feeling pressure to buy. Particularly folk with young families-perfectly understandable becase family stability/comfort/health is more important than money. With 2 little ones I feel the pressure/desire too and may 'give in' or not. We'll see!

This to some extent explains the pause in house price falls nationally. I agree with you though-my gut tells me that falls will resume this winter. The monied buyers entering the market now are not being replaced by new monied buyers due to economic conditions. Alot of the money going into the market now is the last remnants of those who benefited form years of HPI. This money is not being replaced so the fundamentals are not here for continued support for prices at these levels as professional jobs in banking etc are lost and bonuses slashed.

One good thing is that this 'pause' should encourage more sellers into the market which should free it up significantly and refresh the stale stocks that have taken up permanent residence on the espc website.

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Yep, as predicted:

Money-Week_clip_image001.jpg

It all looks textbook so far, going by this graph. Prices should rise for a bit, then carnage. I'm betting on the end of this year when the carnage starts.

Good luck with your new home BigSack. Take it you will stick around these parts ?

As for the story of the graph I agree the end of this year is when it will really begin.

Edinburgh YoY figures in July will be something like -15%.

Summer ends. Edinburgh becomes a rather dark depressing place again. People realise this was just a little blip on the long route downwards. Job losses start to really kick in for the Financial sector. Carnage will begin.

As for job losses I think people need to understand that the recent ones announced by RBS will not kick in until November - if I have been informed correctly. That will be when these people are actually out of a job.

Anyway - 15% off peak prices for yourself is not a bad deal. I am waiting for 50% though. Greedy chap that I am. ;)

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Good luck with your new home BigSack. Take it you will stick around these parts ?

As for the story of the graph I agree the end of this year is when it will really begin.

Edinburgh YoY figures in July will be something like -15%.

Summer ends. Edinburgh becomes a rather dark depressing place again. People realise this was just a little blip on the long route downwards. Job losses start to really kick in for the Financial sector. Carnage will begin.

As for job losses I think people need to understand that the recent ones announced by RBS will not kick in until November - if I have been informed correctly. That will be when these people are actually out of a job.

Anyway - 15% off peak prices for yourself is not a bad deal. I am waiting for 50% though. Greedy chap that I am. ;)

Tory, a mere 50 huh, i have decided to rent until my new prediction of 85% drop comes true, from peak bubble, you may scoff :blink: but in some areas of the city this has already happened.

Sold for 260k new, now being offered for 107k :blink:

http://www.mov8realestate.com/new/search/

still a bit to go IMO Though in this area in particular i predict a 2 bedder will bottom out at 30k :lol:

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Thanks ccc and fflump.

Maybe I should become a bull again, now that I've bought a house :P

I'll start posting positive stories like that loon, the crutchster...

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Thanks ccc and fflump.

Maybe I should become a bull again, now that I've bought a house :P

I'll start posting positive stories like that loon, the crutchster...

You should become Shamish Macdoolish.

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Great that youve found a nice place-best of luck!

It seems that a reasonable no. of people are getting back into the market after being fed-up with renting and feeling pressure to buy. Particularly folk with young families-perfectly understandable becase family stability/comfort/health is more important than money. With 2 little ones I feel the pressure/desire too and may 'give in' or not. We'll see!

This to some extent explains the pause in house price falls nationally. I agree with you though-my gut tells me that falls will resume this winter. The monied buyers entering the market now are not being replaced by new monied buyers due to economic conditions. Alot of the money going into the market now is the last remnants of those who benefited form years of HPI. This money is not being replaced so the fundamentals are not here for continued support for prices at these levels as professional jobs in banking etc are lost and bonuses slashed.

One good thing is that this 'pause' should encourage more sellers into the market which should free it up significantly and refresh the stale stocks that have taken up permanent residence on the espc website.

I look at it another way. I have a small child as well and the fact that I am highly "read" (forgive me for the w@nk term!) on the property market means I have already saved a good educations worth of money, she will appreciate that in the future and she cares little that we are in rented at the moment. A little patience goes a long way in a lifetime. The longer you are patient the more you will be rewarded. BigSack and roblpm have been patient and have reaped the rewards, probably saving £1000's. I predict that I may be actively seeking to buy in the latter stages of Q4 this year and Q1 2010, this is all dependant on where I see the market of course, and I will be looking at renovations and will be highly flexible on location and type of property. I want value value value! I don't intend to stay in my first few properties longer that 2-3 yrs at a time, hopefully less than that. I intend to renovate and sell my first few homes to avoid paying the bank interest and get my mortgage gown ASAP. This may not suit all, but my father was mortgage free by the time he was 35 by doing just this.

If the market looks like the falls may continue on through 2010, and I can't see REAL value I will delay another year.

Simple fundametals is what I am looking for;

  • A return to long term acceptable average salary mulitples of 2.5-3.5:1 for the average home (I may stretch to 4:1).

  • Wait for interest rates to rise back up to 3-4% (a more normal scenario than today's laughable base rate) to see what mortgage rates do and how the highly leveraged cope (more falls?)

  • I expect at least 35% off peak prices in Edinburgh, RoS figures confirm 24% from peak at present, espc has it at just over 16% from Q2 2008 (espc 35% drop from £234K peak would be £152K, we are currently at £196K - Q1 figs)

  • When the stock market has confirmed it is genuinely back in a bull market as I believe it is a leading indicator on the general health of the economy

  • When a 1 bed flat can be bought in Edinburgh for less than £80K

    I have a list somewhere to add to this I will try and dig it out. It is important to have a list such as this to dictate to you where your entry point will be. Keeps the emotion out of the decision.

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I look at it another way. I have a small child as well and the fact that I am highly "read" (forgive me for the w@nk term!) on the property market means I have already saved a good educations worth of money, she will appreciate that in the future and she cares little that we are in rented at the moment. A little patience goes a long way in a lifetime. The longer you are patient the more you will be rewarded. BigSack and roblpm have been patient and have reaped the rewards, probably saving £1000's. I predict that I may be actively seeking to buy in the latter stages of Q4 this year and Q1 2010, this is all dependant on where I see the market of course, and I will be looking at renovations and will be highly flexible on location and type of property. I want value value value! I don't intend to stay in my first few properties longer that 2-3 yrs at a time, hopefully less than that. I intend to renovate and sell my first few homes to avoid paying the bank interest and get my mortgage gown ASAP. This may not suit all, but my father was mortgage free by the time he was 35 by doing just this.

If the market looks like the falls may continue on through 2010, and I can't see REAL value I will delay another year.

Simple fundametals is what I am looking for;

  • A return to long term acceptable average salary mulitples of 2.5-3.5:1 for the average home (I may stretch to 4:1).

  • Wait for interest rates to rise back up to 3-4% (a more normal scenario than today's laughable base rate) to see what mortgage rates do and how the highly leveraged cope (more falls?)

  • I expect at least 35% off peak prices in Edinburgh, RoS figures confirm 24% from peak at present, espc has it at just over 16% from Q2 2008 (espc 35% drop from £234K peak would be £152K, we are currently at £196K - Q1 figs)

  • When the stock market has confirmed it is genuinely back in a bull market as I believe it is a leading indicator on the general health of the economy

  • When a 1 bed flat can be bought in Edinburgh for less than £80K

    I have a list somewhere to add to this I will try and dig it out. It is important to have a list such as this to dictate to you where your entry point will be. Keeps the emotion out of the decision.

Except the "normal" mortgage rate should be a wee bit higher if history is correct!

fhfb_contract_rate.gif

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[*]Wait for interest rates to rise back up to 3-4% (a more normal scenario than today's laughable base rate) to see what mortgage rates do and how the highly leveraged cope (more falls?)

If IRs go up to 4% (the BoE rate) then it will be carnage for house prices.

I think the BoE will do all it can to keep IRs artificialy low. :ph34r:

But if inflation continues to climb and the City boys hike their rates, then IRs going up are a given. No matter what the BoE would like.

All those on trackers or VRs will find it very tough once the IRs start to climb. Add to that an extra 1million on the dole and I think prices wil drop another 20-40%........... :(

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