Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
gruffydd

Blanchflower Warns Of 'false Dawns', Slams Darling

Recommended Posts

"The leading Bank of England official who accurately predicted the recession"

No he didn't, he consistently voted for cuts in interest rates that would have inflated the bubble further. Talk about re-writing history.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
"The leading Bank of England official who accurately predicted the recession"

No he didn't, he consistently voted for cuts in interest rates that would have inflated the bubble further. Talk about re-writing history.

Also the "labour market expert" on the MPC and fully behind the shifting to jobs to a migrant workforce. Which is one of the reasons unemployment is so high now, then he goes on the write articles about the problems of unemployment.

What a shit.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
"The leading Bank of England official who accurately predicted the recession"

No he didn't, he consistently voted for cuts in interest rates that would have inflated the bubble further. Talk about re-writing history.

By the time Blanchflower joined the MPC the damage was done. Has cutting the interest rates to zero reinflated the bubble? Blanchflower was actually ahead of the curve.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

so, do we like blanchflower now then ?

a weak V rather than a double dip W....interesting idea.

i personally favour the inverted square root recession.

e23r5.png

Edited by spivtastic

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
By the time Blanchflower joined the MPC the damage was done. Has cutting the interest rates to zero reinflated the bubble? Blanchflower was actually ahead of the curve.

The worst of the excesses were in 2006 and 2007. He was on the MPC then. That was when 125% mortgages et al appeared in volume. The banks didn't care, whatever happened the BOE would shower them with liquidity as it was stuffed with doves. They were right, just after most had busted themselves.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The worst of the excesses were in 2006 and 2007. He was on the MPC then. That was when 125% mortgages et al appeared in volume. The banks didn't care, whatever happened the BOE would shower them with liquidity as it was stuffed with doves. They were right, just after most had busted themselves.

i agree. i'm very upset that blanchflower is getting favourable press.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
By the time Blanchflower joined the MPC the damage was done. Has cutting the interest rates to zero reinflated the bubble? Blanchflower was actually ahead of the curve.

You are probably right, but the medicine he prescribed of reducing rates would not have saved any jobs either.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He was one of the first saying that we should lower interest rates, so when they eventually cut interest rates he was proclaimed as being right.

Well, right with what? The market needs to settle the imbalances, so that people with money get a good return on money lent to borrowers. Low interest rates cover up the problem, they dont fix it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

blanchflower is an interesting fellow especially as he has worked with HPC Guru Andrew Oswald/Mega Bear/Dr Doom in the past on a number of papers/things

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/resources.php

The economics professor who is not afraid to speak his mind and stick to his beliefs.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2004/may/08/4

So, perhaps not surprisingly, he plays Dr Doom about house prices. He thinks the current pace of house price inflation, as well as house price levels, is way out of kilter with long-term trends, totally unsustainable and, as has happened in the past, will end in tears.

He brushes aside the idea that house prices will simply stop growing and stay steady for several years to allow wage growth to catch up and re-establish the long-term ratio between them.

The optimists say that low interest rates and low unemployment will prevent house prices falling. "That argument is unpersuasive and I continue to believe house prices will crash. And I also expect them to overshoot by more than the current over-valuation would suggest." Oswald, who correctly predicted the house price crash of the early 1990s, knows this is an unpopular view which has drawn a lot of flak from the general public.

"It is our responsibility as economists to speak out when the data are telling us something, even though we may sometimes be wrong or unpopular.

"A major problem in this country is that most comment on the housing market is made by people who have a vested interest in high house prices," he says, referring in particular to the Nationwide and Halifax, big mortgage lenders who produce monthly house price indices.

Oswald simply does not believe the idea that we are in a new era of house prices which is different from the past and which justifies current high valuations. "When you hear people talk of a new era, you know you are in huge trouble. Remember people said that about the dotcom boom in the stock market in 2000 before it crashed."

In my option some of Oswolds fears rubbed onto Blanchflower and he decided that he needed to solve the problem as he was in the MPC (and low Irs is a blunt solution/tool). He is kind of right, low interest rates delays the problems

Edited by moosetea

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
"The leading Bank of England official who accurately predicted the recession"

No he didn't, he consistently voted for cuts in interest rates that would have inflated the bubble further. Talk about re-writing history.

He was saying the same as people on here, HPC just didnt like his choice of medicine. He saw the wheels coming off and receommended lower rates - the only weapon at his disposal.

125% mortgages is nothing to do with the MPC. They are charged with containing inflation.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Also the "labour market expert" on the MPC and fully behind the shifting to jobs to a migrant workforce. Which is one of the reasons unemployment is so high now, then he goes on the write articles about the problems of unemployment.

What a shit.

This article was printed in the Times, what do you expect from this paper, veracity?. what has happened to this broadsheet, it used to have a reputation for real journalism, now they just print what the owners want to see, which is propoganda in support of Gnu Labour.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
EKG_Flatline.jpg

i take it back, the 'flatliner' is more like it. Infact, i believe we're in the midst of the greenshoot inspired volatility/signs of life bit.

:lol:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
If Anthea Turner says house prices are going to fall do we all have to like her too? :(

no, then it's time to turn bull.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The worst of the excesses were in 2006 and 2007. He was on the MPC then. That was when 125% mortgages et al appeared in volume. The banks didn't care, whatever happened the BOE would shower them with liquidity as it was stuffed with doves. They were right, just after most had busted themselves.

If we assume that America has triggered the global recession, 2006/7 where irrelevant and it went pop in 2005 and started to slowly seep into the system as subprime defaults grew.

Although to be fair if Blanchflower really did have talent he would have been saying we need to cut rates and curb lending in 2006/7 to ensure we didn't have total collapse here.

He only called for 1.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The worst of the excesses were in 2006 and 2007. He was on the MPC then. That was when 125% mortgages et al appeared in volume. The banks didn't care, whatever happened the BOE would shower them with liquidity as it was stuffed with doves. They were right, just after most had busted themselves.

Sorry OM, but how could the guys at the BoE have possibly known about the 125% mortgages, the securitisation going on and LIAR LOANS?

without reports fron the FSA, they were effectively blinded.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Sorry OM, but how could the guys at the BoE have possibly known about the 125% mortgages, the securitisation going on and LIAR LOANS?

without reports fron the FSA, they were effectively blinded.

Can't they read internet forums?

Do their own research?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Sorry OM, but how could the guys at the BoE have possibly known about the 125% mortgages, the securitisation going on and LIAR LOANS?

without reports fron the FSA, they were effectively blinded.

You are kidding. It was all in the newspapers and even exposed on TV as early as 2003.

You'd have to shut your eyes to be blind to what was going on, and stick your fingers in your ears.

Month after month of increasing debt (way beyond wages) was also a bit of a tell - tale.

No excuses whatsoever.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
You are kidding. It was all in the newspapers and even exposed on TV as early as 2003.

You'd have to shut your eyes to be blind to what was going on, and stick your fingers in your ears.

Month after month of increasing debt (way beyond wages) was also a bit of a tell - tale.

No excuses whatsoever.

course its an excuse, they live by the figures. Anecdotals, like press reports and reality dont measure up when the back stabbers are looking for an uncovered ass.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:   328 members have voted

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.