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macca23

Balham/ Clapham

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Buffer - that last post of mine came over the wrong way.

maybe what I meant to say is the area would be desirable to more people now than it was at the start of the boom meaning prices won't simply revert to where they were 5, 6, 7 years ago etc

Prices most probably won't go back to those of 5 years ago, but the area is still by and large very overpriced. Don't forget Balham wasn't really anyones first choice even up until very recently, it's really just the Clapham\Wandsworth latte drinking overspill that have gone there.

Balham has always had some really nice streets, especially towards Wandsworth Common & Clapham South, fairly decent schools and plenty of families, but paying 380K for a 3 bed flat in Zone 3 Balham is sheer madness...people do it though :lol:

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Balham has improved/gentrified, that change is probably permanent, so prices are very unlikely to drop to an extent that it, say, becomes much cheaper/less desirable than Clapham South, or on a par with Tooting, or whatever. But they've dropped alright and will continue to drop. The national average of 20% off peak/a return to 2004 prices seems to have been almost exactly played out in Balham from what I've seen of selling prices, although this is not [yet] borne out in asking prices.

Gentrification had already happened in 2004, from what I can remember it was around 2000-2002 when Balham prices seemed to be really roaring upwards at a higher rate than the national average [which was itself pretty spectacular].

Edited by the flying pig

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Somewhere on a street very close to me showing as 'under offer'.

A so-so two-bed leashold flat on a so-so road listed above £400k, basically 20% above peak.

If it sells for anywhere within £50k of that price then in a narrow sense I suppose I should be pleased because mine would fetch the same but far more importantly it bodes badly for my chances of trading up [will have to move further out] and for the country as a whole - if that is genuinely the going rate for a place like that then we are lost :o .

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so for a 2 bed flat in this area, even with a 20% deposit, you are talking about £1900 a month for a 5% mortgage!

there are either.......

1) a lot of people with a lot of money who want to live in this area

2) a lot of people on interest only deals (the above example is £1300 on I/O)

3) a lot of tracker mortgages keeping prices up round here? (even a 2% above base tracker is £666 on I/O)

worth noting that £400k plus for a 2 bed flat is normal in this area

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Somewhere on a street very close to me showing as 'under offer'.

A so-so two-bed leashold flat on a so-so road listed above £400k, basically 20% above peak.

The mistake I certainly made when I sold my flat at the start of last year was to forget what a small microcosm of society the HPC-educated are and assume that the general public do anything like the same sort of research that we would do when selling.

Just after I exchanged on the sale of my 3bed ex-council flat in SE1 at a little under £275k, another 3bed in another block in the estate came on the market. Mine was top floor of 4, with huge balcony, set back from Westminster Bridge Road although flat itself could do with a bit of a spruce up. There's was 3rd floor of 8 or so, slightly bigger bedrooms, generally better condition, but enclosed balcony overlooking the same road.

All the work it had done before the previous sale in August 2007:LINK, so I guess the developer got out at just the right time. They originally put it on the market at £365k, got an offer around that figure that was later withdrawn, put it back on market at £350k and sold at full asking price just before Christmas 2009. For £6k more than August 2007, despite having had NO work done to it and the spectre of Southwark Council's impending major works now hanging over it.

There is still a LOT of property being marketed at what people NEED to sell it for. I marketed my place at what I was told it was worth at the time. In hindsight, I wish I'd marketed it at £300k as I think sooner or later some point would have paid that. However, every day I wake up and don't have to deal with the negligent, murdering scum (allegedly) that are Southwark Council is another good day for me.

Oh and I do realise it's a completely different area and apologies for going off on a tangent somewhat, but I think it is still relevant anecdotally.

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Think this kind of area is probably a bit “different†to some others so might not follow the normal trends?

Twenty years ago Balham was not somewhere you would want to live, and now, to many it is very desirable, so while the increases have been higher than most other areas maybe the fact that it is now a better place to live than it was at the start of the boom will mean falls will be less than they would have been had the area not come up so much?

Any opinions on this?

I think Earlsfield is in a similar situation

I lived in Balham 20 years ago and it was a perfectly nice area to live. Last time I went past it looked the same accept it now had a Waitrose. I also lived close to Wandsworth Common (Balham side) for a while and that was a better location IMO. Earlsfield: lived there for a couple of years in the mid-nineties – nothing wrong with it, but wouldn't want to live there again – now has a Carluccios so it must of come-up. Is there anywhere left in London that's left that hasn't been gentrified but you would want to live?

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I have just sold my 2 bed purpose built Edwardian flat with garden in Clapham for £250k

We sold for that price as we wanted a quick sale and it needed modernisation- we had an offer 4 days after putting it on the market and then when our buyer started messing us about put it back on the market and had two viewings and two offers in the first week - Our first buyer then panicked thinking he might lose the flat and decided to stop fannying about

Looking at the websites now a flat like ours ( Just of the Kings Ave ) in good nick are selling for between 280 and 300k in fact the flat underneath the one we sold went on the market at just under 280k and that only has 1 bedroom

Where we were is FTB territory and In fact all three people who viewed our flat had wanted one in our road for a long time

Still we are out of it now and have used the money from the sale to buy a semi detached cottage on the Isle of Wight

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I bought in Battersea in 2009 and though the 2007/2009 crash is the only one I have directly experienced it seems property normally goes up fairly slowly and then you get the occasional crash like 1989/90 and 2007/2009.

When I bought nobody seemed to wish to buy and I though the Estate agent would offer me the hand of his daughter in marriage.

I did not If anything posh it was a 3 bedroom ex local being rented out and the landlord was worried about prices falling further , I was as well 

However I got it for under the £250k threshold and rent saved plus the rent was higher than the mortgage cost.

Anyways Balham would be ideal for me from a commuting /social point of view .

Talking to vendors in 2009 then you could sense the panick and I think the only time to get a good deal is when the economy is potentially tanking, which from an employment / salary point of view is a two edged sword.

I could go to £550k in Balham but do not wish to do that if we get another crash in couple of years.

I do worry about local market though and wonder if Balham is still up and coming and might buck a general downturn at least in part.

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I could go to £550k in Balham but do not wish to do that if we get another crash in couple of years.

I do worry about local market though and wonder if Balham is still up and coming and might buck a general downturn at least in part.

Unfortunately, all bets are off at the moment. There will have to be a crash/correction at some point unless the government can work out even more wacky schemes to keep prices up.

That doesn't help much with your forward planning, but it sounds as though you bought for the right reasons last time (i.e. saving on monthly rental costs rather than relying on HPI to make a quick buck).

In my opinion, it is only really interest rate rises that will cause a crash, so the relative strength of Balham vs Battersea might come down to which area has the most indebted buyers. I guess this is unlikely to favour the up and coming areas that have grown most in the last few years, but it might be pretty similar.

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this caught my eye.

2-bed ground floor [so no loft conversion potential] flat near Balham station, postage stamp-sized back yard backing onto what looks very much like the railway line, benchmark 2010-12 sold prices [helpfully provided by RM] £390k-425k, asking price now £650k.

even if they 'only' get £550-600k [the asking price looks huge] we're surely close to end days.

i dunno if it's HTB or what but my sense is that over the last two years, HPI on smartish flats [say in the originally c. £400k bracket] is about 50%, whereas on on biggish houses [say originally in the c. £1m bracket] it's 'only' about say 30%...

Edited by the flying pig

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this caught my eye.

2-bed ground floor [so no loft conversion potential] flat near Balham station, postage stamp-sized back yard backing onto what looks very much like the railway line, benchmark 2010-12 sold prices [helpfully provided by RM] £390k-425k, asking price now £650k.

even if they 'only' get £550-600k [the asking price looks huge] we're surely close to end days.

i dunno if it's HTB or what but my sense is that over the last two years, HPI on smartish flats [say in the originally c. £400k bracket] is about 50%, whereas on on biggish houses [say originally in the c. £1m bracket] it's 'only' about say 30%...

It is the railway line. I looked at a couple of flats on this road back in 2012, one backing on to the railway line, the other not, but otherwise both almost identical to this one.

While in the garden of the track side one the estate agent tried to convince us that as it was near the station the trains would all be going slowly so we'd barely hear them. A couple of minutes later the Gatwick Express came thundering through :rolleyes:

IIRC the track side one was on the market for £430K and the other side £460K.

I did buy in the end (not there though!) and keep an eye on the local market and it seems absolutely crazy right now.

My current favourite is this place: http://www.rightmove...y-29486814.html

EDIT: This was the one I looked at: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatching.html?prop=32555428&sale=47738579&country=england

Seems it acheived close to its asking price back then!

Edited by jon211

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this caught my eye.

i dunno if it's HTB or what but my sense is that over the last two years, HPI on smartish flats [say in the originally c. £400k bracket] is about 50%, whereas on on biggish houses [say originally in the c. £1m bracket] it's 'only' about say 30%...

HTB must have had an effect.

Saying that, I live a bit further out and am seeing the opposite with houses in the sub £1m bracket up much more than flats below them or the larger houses above them. That is the popular part of the market and is motoring even though it is out of the reach of HTB.

Either way. 30% in two years is very stupid when it is on top of prices that were already at bubble levels.

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My current favourite is this place: http://www.rightmove...y-29486814.html

Great example. This is the type of advert that will just look ridiculous in years to come. £750k for a council house that was probably bought for £100k on right to buy a few years ago.

Just imagine bring able to go back to 2010 and telling someone that would be worth anything like that amount of money within four years. Even the EAs would have laughed you out of the office.

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From right move, below. All sold prices.

50% hpi in a little under a year. It's maybe easier to get big % hpi on a cheaper place because (e.g.) a new kitchen is proportionately worth much more, but this is clearly a nonsense.

I won't mention the 320% hpi since 2000.

Entering Weimar Republic territory.

Flat G01b, Du Cane Court, Balham High Road, London, Greater London SW17 7JP

£315,000 Flat, Leasehold 16 Jan 2014

£210,000 Flat, Leasehold 30 Jan 2013

£142,000 Flat, Leasehold 19 Sep 2003

£75,000 Flat, Leasehold 29 Feb 2000

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From right move, below. All sold prices.

50% hpi in a little under a year. It's maybe easier to get big % hpi on a cheaper place because (e.g.) a new kitchen is proportionately worth much more, but this is clearly a nonsense.

I won't mention the 320% hpi since 2000.

Entering Weimar Republic territory.

Flat G01b, Du Cane Court, Balham High Road, London, Greater London SW17 7JP

£315,000 Flat, Leasehold 16 Jan 2014

£210,000 Flat, Leasehold 30 Jan 2013

£142,000 Flat, Leasehold 19 Sep 2003

£75,000 Flat, Leasehold 29 Feb 2000

I know this block well - one thing I can think of that might partially explain the higher price in the last 12 months is perhaps a significant lease extension?

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I know this block well - one thing I can think of that might partially explain the higher price in the last 12 months is perhaps a significant lease extension?

could be. though see the link below

looking at sw12 as a whole that rate of inflation seems high, though far from extraordinary.

Edited by the flying pig

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since we were talking abt overpriced property in this part of the world.

£1.1m for 900 sq feet.

that's a mere £1,225.99 per square foot, in case you'd been wondering.

W1 prices come to SW12.

this won't end well.

sad.gif

It's gone utterly mental recently, seems that £7-800 per sq foot is the minimum for anything half decent around here now.

I saw the 2.5 bed ex-council house that I posted above has gone SSTC now after being reduced to only £675K!

Edited by jon211

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I used to live in this place, rented not owned I must add. Everything in London town seems to be going for at/above asking price so we'll assume someone has offered near 600k. That means they are either:

1) A HTB2er who has decided to borrow 550k or so and pay about 3k a month on a repayment mortgage. This can't be true, as you can still rent this for below 2k, they must be mad.

OR

2) Someone who has saved 150k of equity and is then borrowing 450k or so @ just above 3% to pay a repayment mortgage of 1.9k/month which is probably the same as the cost to rent.

OR

3) Some mental BTLer who will hopefully get severely carried out.

Unfortunately, I doubt it is 3 and so I feel sorry for a household with an income of well north of 100k to support this debt who feel "the need" to buy this flat. I don't know whether it is the fact that the primary bedroom also has to take the foot traffic through to the garden, the fact the second bedroom isn't big enough for a double bed and a wardrobe, the fact that the kitchen isn't big enough to swing a cat, the fact the lounge can't support a dining area and lounge area configuration at the same time or the fact that you always have to walk 10 minutes to Balham instead of Tooting Bec to pretend you live in SW12 not SW17; that makes me very sad to think this can go for 600k.

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I used to live in this place, rented not owned I must add. Everything in London town seems to be going for at/above asking price so we'll assume someone has offered near 600k. That means they are either:

1) A HTB2er who has decided to borrow 550k or so and pay about 3k a month on a repayment mortgage. This can't be true, as you can still rent this for below 2k, they must be mad.

OR

2) Someone who has saved 150k of equity and is then borrowing 450k or so @ just above 3% to pay a repayment mortgage of 1.9k/month which is probably the same as the cost to rent.

OR

3) Some mental BTLer who will hopefully get severely carried out.

Unfortunately, I doubt it is 3 and so I feel sorry for a household with an income of well north of 100k to support this debt who feel "the need" to buy this flat. I don't know whether it is the fact that the primary bedroom also has to take the foot traffic through to the garden, the fact the second bedroom isn't big enough for a double bed and a wardrobe, the fact that the kitchen isn't big enough to swing a cat, the fact the lounge can't support a dining area and lounge area configuration at the same time or the fact that you always have to walk 10 minutes to Balham instead of Tooting Bec to pretend you live in SW12 not SW17; that makes me very sad to think this can go for 600k.

Whereas the one above is Tooting, and ridiculously priced.

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To be fair to that one its actually more like Clapham than Balham.

I kiboshed the Kingston forum by making an ironical observation about a garage conversion, but prices there are not so bad when compared to that. One million for a shell of a pokey worker's cottage (88 sqm) in South Clapham - That's bonkers, isn't it ? Please tell me why the area is hot, and what elevates it in price over so many other neighbourhoods that have similar housing stock and not greatly disadvantaged in terms of transport connections to main employment centres of the Capital. In my ignorance I believed the area was dotted with sink estates (ditto Islington, Hoxton, etc) and that you ran a fair chance of being mugged or experiencing some other unpleasant occurrence. It seems that it must in fact be some Utopia where people are desperate to move to.

Sorry if I am repeating but is it exceptionally desirable is buying here - ticks the boxes to raise a family ( tough that will be in a Shoebox size property) or is it more about return on investment?

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I kiboshed the Kingston forum by making an ironical observation about a garage conversion, but prices there are not so bad when compared to that. One million for a shell of a pokey worker's cottage (88 sqm) in South Clapham - That's bonkers, isn't it ? Please tell me why the area is hot, and what elevates it in price over so many other neighbourhoods that have similar housing stock and not greatly disadvantaged in terms of transport connections to main employment centres of the Capital. In my ignorance I believed the area was dotted with sink estates (ditto Islington, Hoxton, etc) and that you ran a fair chance of being mugged or experiencing some other unpleasant occurrence. It seems that it must in fact be some Utopia where people are desperate to move to.

Sorry if I am repeating but is it exceptionally desirable is buying here - ticks the boxes to raise a family ( tough that will be in a Shoebox size property) or is it more about return on investment?

That newish fridge looks out of place in the Kitchen. Maybe it is there to help buyers visualise it as a home!

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