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ParticleMan

Top Dollar

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Anyone else think the greenback is due some pullback?

gbpusd20090527.gif

(don't bother looking at other pairs, the pattern is dollar selling, Yen buying mostly)

Computer says "yes".

But computer's been known to agree to all sorts of rubbish.

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Serious funding problems at the long end. Sterling is looking like the least ugly in the currency ugly contest especially since S&P has done us all a favour and pointed out what we need to do post election. I fancy we'll see $1.70 before $1.50 again.

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Serious funding problems at the long end. Sterling is looking like the least ugly in the currency ugly contest especially since S&P has done us all a favour and pointed out what we need to do post election. I fancy we'll see $1.70 before $1.50 again

Macro? Absolutely agree.

Technicals on the other hand are indicating distribution to my wounded eye - shall we meet in the middle and sell your bauble of choice back down .75-1% (against the HeliBenjamin) or so?

Edited by ParticleMan

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Top Euro is my view.

OT, sorry, I know.

I just need to get it off my chest at least once a day :P

Edited by VoteWithYourFeet

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Do you fancy a test of the $1.55 level before rallying again? £/EUR looks interesting too. Looking for a firm break above 1.15 and a move back to 1.25. I think this will coincide with $1.70. The UK will get a change of government (my bet is before Xmas) and the prospect is enticing the punters.

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£/EUR looks interesting too. Looking for a firm break above 1.15 and a move back to 1.25. I think this will coincide with $1.70. The UK will get a change of government (my bet is before Xmas) and the prospect is enticing the punters.

+1

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http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/27052009/323/euro-...rench-data.html

Wednesday May 27, 12:20 PM

Euro down against dollar after French data

LONDON (AFP) - The euro dropped against the dollar on Wednesday as economic data showed only a slight improvement in French business confidence, traders said...../

The dollar was also supported by concerns over the woes of German banks and a drop in eurozone factory orders, NAB Capital analyst John Kyriakopoulos said.

The bad news for the Euro is just starting to emerge. Germany's GDP is collapsing with last quarter at -6.3% or almost 3 times as bad as the US.

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Do you fancy a test of the $1.55 level before rallying again?

I'm a free money kind of guy and that smells like too much hard work; $1.58 and let half again run down to $1.56 is what I'm thinking...

£/EUR looks interesting too. Looking for a firm break above 1.15 and a move back to 1.25. I think this will coincide with $1.70. The UK will get a change of government (my bet is before Xmas) and the prospect is enticing the punters.

Possible; I'd probably trade USDJPY instead though (maybe even right down to the BOJ's uncle point, which currently seems to be sub-94) - have you ever stomped on a hosepipe while someone was watering their garden with it?

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Wasn't GoldenSacks saying $1.80-something by the end of the year, i.e. "buy guilts"??

And I'm sure one other government bond buyer was saying Gilts over Bunds because of the currency play...

I'm looking for something more like:

GBP:USD 1.80 ish

GBP:EUR 1.25 ish

EUR:USD 1:45 ish

If not a little more in sterling's favour. It probably won't last though...

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any views on CNY at the moment?

I am taking an absolute shoeing on GBP/CNY and I cant imagine how the pound looks like a better prospect. It must be 10% down this month and whilst that hasnt eaten up my gains from when I went in a couple of years ago.. it has certainly put a sizeable dent in them.

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any views on CNY at the moment?

Nope - I'm the Brave Sir Robin of the Fx world - CNY and RUB are the two I won't touch, not even with a bargepole, not even if I'm paid to.

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(maybe even right down to the BOJ's uncle point, which currently seems to be sub-94)

... just for clarity, if the USD does turn, I'd expect JPY to weaken momentarily, then slingshot right back the other way; the free money there from my point of view is trading both turns, not trying to ride the bronco...

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EURUSD is certainly moving in the right direction now, looks like either we have an audience here ;), or, far more likely I'm not the only person thinking along these lines...

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Serious funding problems at the long end. Sterling is looking like the least ugly in the currency ugly contest especially since S&P has done us all a favour and pointed out what we need to do post election. I fancy we'll see $1.70 before $1.50 again.

Agree,im a long term bear on sterling against Asian currency,but im hearing our trade balance is moving fast towards surplus :o .The figures are trailing 5 months behind and it seems our exports are growing fast and imports slowing.

We could be about to announce a surplus in the autumn in the trade balance.If what im hearing is right the sterling crash is off for now.

This could see interest rates rise sooner than people think,maybe winter/spring up to 2.5% IMO.If these figures are right (its a very good source) .

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It'd tie in with the HEW and unsecured debt trend.

And now at Euro 1.15.

And strangely BolloxManLondon or whatever his name was remains missing in action. Probably working to repay his shorting losses from March.

I am currently working on a $1.70 target for the next few months and I'll go for Euro 1.25.

Sterling's fall was far too quick and we now know the Government and Public spending are going to get trimmed big time. The Treasury is working on plans for massive cuts in total defiance of the PM.

The big difference between the Uk as opposed to Europe and the US is that we are not really a Global reserve currency.

The US is about 64% of currency reserves and the Euro about 26.5%, the UK is about 4% which is strangely just a bit more than the Yen.

The key point about this is that the US and Europe can print almost as much as they like and avoid collapse as the suckers are on the hook. If the UK tried the same trick investors would dump Sterling and we'd then be completely broke and the BoE know this.

In summary the Uk doesn't really the power to stealthily debase our currency, as we'd either get put on the economic rack by the IMF or we'd have to go with a total currency collapse.

Edited by mikelivingstone

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I wouldn't be at all surprised if we were getting some strength on the buy side (of USD) from what's going on over in the Treasuries market today (a selloff would tend to drain liquidity I think).

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Nope - I'm the Brave Sir Robin of the Fx world - CNY and RUB are the two I won't touch, not even with a bargepole, not even if I'm paid to.

Is that a permanent position or a recent development? I've held a considerable amount of RMB for a couple of years and am still well up on it. But i'm wondering if I shouldnt dip out. My brain tells me that RMB ought to fare better than GBP - but my eyes are watching it tank......

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I'm a bit concerned tonight. This thread had been going all day and has had 21 posts of interesting comment and opinion with no loony ranting. I assume the ranters are still down the pub drowning their sorrows after the footy?

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Agree,im a long term bear on sterling against Asian currency,but im hearing our trade balance is moving fast towards surplus :o .The figures are trailing 5 months behind and it seems our exports are growing fast and imports slowing.

We could be about to announce a surplus in the autumn in the trade balance.If what im hearing is right the sterling crash is off for now.

This could see interest rates rise sooner than people think,maybe winter/spring up to 2.5% IMO.If these figures are right (its a very good source) .

Durhamborn, I'm confused, surely exports are growing relative to imports precisely because we have had weak sterling. As it strengthens pressure will come to bear on those exports and the manufacturers behind them.

How on earth does this logic lead to higher interest rates? Besides we have inflation targetting for interest rates, and once again stronger sterling results in lower import prices, pushing inflation further away (i.e. deflation) from the target of +2% CPI...

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I'm a bit concerned tonight. This thread had been going all day and has had 21 posts of interesting comment and opinion with no loony ranting. I assume the ranters are still down the pub drowning their sorrows after the footy?

Or celebrating.......................ha!

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Durhamborn, I'm confused, surely exports are growing relative to imports precisely because we have had weak sterling. As it strengthens pressure will come to bear on those exports and the manufacturers behind them.

How on earth does this logic lead to higher interest rates? Besides we have inflation targetting for interest rates, and once again stronger sterling results in lower import prices, pushing inflation further away (i.e. deflation) from the target of +2% CPI...

I think what Durhamborn is referring to are competing pressures here. I work in manufacturing industry, one that will be difficult to "export" . At the moment there is overcapacity in our industry in Europe. As we speak, UK product is exported to Europe because of a toxic (as far as the Europeans are concerned) combination of the exchange rate, and freight rates at or below cost at the margins. We aren't making hay, but our European competitors really are suffering at the moment.

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