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Mondo

History Tells Us That March 2009 Marked A Buying Opportunity

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Interesting article in The Telegraph today, moving on from green shoots to blue skies...

"I appreciate there's still economic uncertainty, job losses and worried business people. But stock markets lead, not follow. Economic indicators suggest blue skies ahead. Don't stay in the cold."

Any thoughts? I don't quite see it myself, but base that purely on 'personal sentiment' - that is to say I don't have any statistics, graphs or hisrtorical perspective to back me up, just a feeling that we're currently still a fair way from the end. :(

edit to try to quote text properly!

Edited by Mondo

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...

Any thoughts? .....

Alan Steel is chairman of Alan Steel Asset Management

I'm guessing but I recon this guy makes his living selling equities based investments?

Chris

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Guest Winnie
Interesting article in The Telegraph today, moving on from green shoots to blue skies...

Any thoughts? I don't quite see it myself, but base that purely on 'personal sentiment' - that is to say I don't have any statistics, graphs or hisrtorical perspective to back me up, just a feeling that we're currently still a fair way from the end. :(

edit to try to quote text properly!

The observers who have been right in the past all say that this is a trader/ Fed manipulated dead cat bounce, aimed at reflating bank shares in the US long enough for them to get their capital raising issues covered whilst shares are "attractive". Volume is low, except on days where more scared fund managers have taken the leap and put their clients' money back into the market in case they have missed the "turn".

Because there is no more money in the banks or likely to come through Congress the idea is to get lots of honest money lured back in to prop up all these companies, and as with the 1930s, it will get lost again, causing a downward spiral of selling, despair, false hope, rinse repeat till the real bottom.

The view is that large chunks of the remaining TARP cash are being used by the Fed's market manip team along with Goldman Sachs who are masterminding it. the only snag is that treasuries and the dollar are reaching critical point so we can expect a reversal of "strategy" soon.

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Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable

"I appreciate there's still existential uncertainty, hair loss and worried donkeys. But penguins lead, not follow. Swimming indicators suggest blue lakes ahead. Don't stay in the bath."

******ing horseshit.

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The observers who have been right in the past all say that this is a trader/ Fed manipulated dead cat bounce, aimed at reflating bank shares in the US long enough for them to get their capital raising issues covered whilst shares are "attractive". Volume is low, except on days where more scared fund managers have taken the leap and put their clients' money back into the market in case they have missed the "turn".

Because there is no more money in the banks or likely to come through Congress the idea is to get lots of honest money lured back in to prop up all these companies, and as with the 1930s, it will get lost again, causing a downward spiral of selling, despair, false hope, rinse repeat till the real bottom.

The view is that large chunks of the remaining TARP cash are being used by the Fed's market manip team along with Goldman Sachs who are masterminding it. the only snag is that treasuries and the dollar are reaching critical point so we can expect a reversal of "strategy" soon.

Thank you - lots for me to look into there!

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'Wealth' is being destroyed at an incredible rate, lending has disappeared and the entire foundation of high property values destroyed - forever. Would you accept mortgage backed securities?

Until the debt is paid off (highest %age against GDP in history , 50% higher than 1928) there will be no recovery. How long does it take to repay 350% of your income back, especially when your income is falling 4% per year?

Stocks are bought by idiots who have no idea what they are doing, making prices increase because there is a lot of stupid people about.

Edited by Peter Hun

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Stock market recoveries have predicted 12 of the last 2 economic recoveries.

Taking a medium term view, the stock market is clearly very down, and there is nothing whatsoever to suggest it will achieve its previous levels any time soon.

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The observers who have been right in the past all say that this is a trader/ Fed manipulated dead cat bounce, aimed at reflating bank shares in the US long enough for them to get their capital raising issues covered whilst shares are "attractive". Volume is low, except on days where more scared fund managers have taken the leap and put their clients' money back into the market in case they have missed the "turn".

I don't know anyone I would trust who thinks this is a trader / Fed manipulated dead cat bounce. In fact I don't know anyone except a few on here who thinks that at all.

The US and our own beloved Governments have decided to print some cash to throw at the problem. That is going to prevent some companies who would have gone bust from doing so and increase profits for others. It certainly isn't what I would have done but it's the reality.

I very much doubt the Fed or our sack of shite have the intelligence or ability to manipulate anything.

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Taking a medium term view, the stock market is clearly very down, and there is nothing whatsoever to suggest it will achieve its previous levels any time soon.

yes there is

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Do you think it needs a bit of prozac?

I think it clearly needs help by those employed by the taxpayer - if it doesn't say it wants help - then it must have it anyway.

and cctv cameras for its own safety too

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Stock market recoveries have predicted 12 of the last 2 economic recoveries.

I was going to say:

So have dead cat bounces, they just come a bit before the big trough and before the recovery!

THen I realised having re read what you wrote that you were being far more astute than I gave you credit for! ;)

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Stocks are bought by idiots who have no idea what they are doing, making prices increase because there is a lot of stupid people about.

yah, but if there's enough idiots...

and we've no shortage of idiots, just drooling at one more go at ponzinomics.

Until theres some value restored i tend to think this is nothing but a bull trap.

House prices might have fallen 25%, but then so have rental yields by a similar amount.

Stock markets may have fallen, but earnings have too, and dont seem to be properly priced in yet.

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I don't know anyone I would trust who thinks this is a trader / Fed manipulated dead cat bounce. In fact I don't know anyone except a few on here who thinks that at all.

The US and our own beloved Governments have decided to print some cash to throw at the problem. That is going to prevent some companies who would have gone bust from doing so and increase profits for others. It certainly isn't what I would have done but it's the reality.

I very much doubt the Fed or our sack of shite have the intelligence or ability to manipulate anything.

For me the key to the management theory you are so opposed to is if we do get another timely period of equity induced fear to cause a flight to safety that will start bringing the rates back in check. If we don't and get the much anticipated bond market explosion god help us. I just don't see why they would let the markets run free and drive up interest rates at a time when servicing debt is so crucial to any possible chance of recovery.

THEY ARE MANAGING THIS, (I hope for all our sakes)

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History of other housing bubbles and my own personal experience tells me that we are no where near bottom yet.

Read the quotes in my signature and have a good look at the Nationwide graph. Note the graph does not show the recent bubble. The recent bubble was off the scale. :rolleyes:

Edited by Belfast Boy

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From The Telegraph article:

By nature, analysts are not optimists. They're cold fish, unemotional, so they don't get carried away on waves of euphoria or despondency. They stick to numbers.

:lol::lol:

The article refers to "history" a lot but in that respect history tells us that whatever analysts recommend and broadcast in the general media is as likely as not to be very far removed from the eventual outcome.

One of the best examples (but it happens all the time - what were "analysts" doing when Enron was about to go under, yes you guessed) is at the start of the dotcom bust when they were telling clients dotcoms were a strong buy while at the same time they were offloading dotcoms as fast as they possibly could.

Edited by billybong

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The 1928 still had it up runs ...

This advice could probably make me a fortune...

if I only knew what on earth it meant.

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'Wealth' is being destroyed at an incredible rate, lending has disappeared and the entire foundation of high property values destroyed - forever. Would you accept mortgage backed securities?

Until the debt is paid off (highest %age against GDP in history , 50% higher than 1928) there will be no recovery. How long does it take to repay 350% of your income back, especially when your income is falling 4% per year?

Stocks are bought by idiots who have no idea what they are doing, making prices increase because there is a lot of stupid people about.

The stock market has been in a bear market for around 14 years.Stocks were over-valued,and capital was malinvested in property and now gilts.

Everything now is pointing to a turn.IMO we are at the start of a 15 year bull market in stocks.Mainly in Asia.Sterling adjusted im thinking Asia up 250% over the next 15 years.

Money where my mouth is i moved all my cash into Asian equities in March.Small amount in some FTSE blues.

The UK economy and house prices,worst investment over the next 15 years IMO.

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The observers who have been right in the past all say that this is a trader/ Fed manipulated dead cat bounce, aimed at reflating bank shares in the US long enough for them to get their capital raising issues covered whilst shares are "attractive". Volume is low, except on days where more scared fund managers have taken the leap and put their clients' money back into the market in case they have missed the "turn".

Because there is no more money in the banks or likely to come through Congress the idea is to get lots of honest money lured back in to prop up all these companies, and as with the 1930s, it will get lost again, causing a downward spiral of selling, despair, false hope, rinse repeat till the real bottom.

The view is that large chunks of the remaining TARP cash are being used by the Fed's market manip team along with Goldman Sachs who are masterminding it. the only snag is that treasuries and the dollar are reaching critical point so we can expect a reversal of "strategy" soon.

Getting interesting.

http://www.bloomberg.com/?b=0&Intro=intro3

Picture1.jpg

post-6129-1243448108_thumb.jpg

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The stock market has been in a bear market for around 14 years.Stocks were over-valued,and capital was malinvested in property and now gilts.

Everything now is pointing to a turn.IMO we are at the start of a 15 year bull market in stocks.Mainly in Asia.Sterling adjusted im thinking Asia up 250% over the next 15 years.

Money where my mouth is i moved all my cash into Asian equities in March.Small amount in some FTSE blues.

The UK economy and house prices,worst investment over the next 15 years IMO.

I have 100K invested in the KLSE right now and the gains are extraordinary....I could have done better with STI or HSI but I'm happy with the KLCI blue chips - and in July the FTSE takes over the top 30.

KNM

Kinstel

Zelan

Mulpha

UEMLand

Dialog

IOI

I lurve my Malaysian counters.....

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