Oil Will Be Cheap And Plentiful For At Least 100 Years

[Guest Skinty]

Humans are social creatures, someone is always going to be in charge and we are always going to be governed by some system or another

With social instincts and social values.

We don't need some organised religion to take credit for the conscience that we already have.

[PopGun]

Tanker ships hoarding all over the world isn't a good indicator of plentiful oil to me. Could be for short term speculation, but still not a good sign.

[Kurt Barlow]

Tanker ships hoarding all over the world isn't a good indicator of plentiful oil to me. Could be for short term speculation, but still not a good sign.

A symptom of final users destocking - less fuel in the tanks in cars, petrol station forecourts etc.

If or when the upturn starts the price will rise rapidly as consumers race to rebuild inventories.

The oil industry has lacked the ability to respond to upswings in demand since 2005.

[laurejon]

So loads of tankers full of oil that no one wants, proves that we are short of oil!

If you say so.

This chap seems to think so.

U.S. President Barack Obama plans to visit King Abdullah in Riyadh tomorrow to discuss such issues as peace in the Middle East, terrorism and the price of oil. Obama has said he intends to tell the king that “huge spikes†in energy prices would hurt the interests of both the U.S. and Saudi Arabia.

[Game_Over]

This chap seems to think so.

U.S. President Barack Obama plans to visit King Abdullah in Riyadh tomorrow to discuss such issues as peace in the Middle East, terrorism and the price of oil. Obama has said he intends to tell the king that “huge spikes†in energy prices would hurt the interests of both the U.S. and Saudi Arabia.

Because it is possible that OPEC could drastically cut back on production in order to force up the price of oil

Therefore if the price of oil rises it will once again be nothing to do with oil running out

Quite the contrary

[Methinkshe]

How do you know that you know God?

I'll offer just one example.

Because God has given me His spirit of love (Christ-in-me, which is true Christianity) so that I find I no longer desire to repay evil with evil but to bless those who curse me and to show love to those who show me hatred and persecute me, just as did Jesus.

But that's only the beginning........................

Now, I said that out of courtesy for the OP, I would retire from the discussion about God which is rather off-topic. I do not want to be drawn back into the general debate about the existence of God, but thought I should just answer your question.

So back to the topic in hand..............

[Game_Over]

A symptom of final users destocking - less fuel in the tanks in cars, petrol station forecourts etc.

If or when the upturn starts the price will rise rapidly as consumers race to rebuild inventories.

The oil industry has lacked the ability to respond to upswings in demand since 2005.

So loads of tankers full of oil that no one wants, proves that we are short of oil!

If you say so.

['CrossTheBreeze]

The main reaction between Hydrogen and Boron 11 produces only alpha particles which can be stopped with a layer or two of aluminum foil. However there are side reactions which will produce about one millionth the neutron flux of an operating fission reactor. If construction materials are chosen carefully there should be no long lived radioisotopes.

For the sake of the pedants who haunt this site

Nuclear fusion produces extremely low levels of radiation that cannot even escape the containment vessel let alone the building it is located in.

And unlike nuclear fission the fuel itself is not radioactive.

Happy now?

Why have you used hydrogen-boron fusion as an example? This is much more difficult to achieve than deuterium-tritium fusion.

D-T fusion requires temperatures of 670 million degrees Celsius whereas H-B requires 6.6 billion degrees Celsius. The peak reaction rate is one third of D-T and the power density is 700~2500 times lower. Even if hydrogen-boron fusion was technically possible it may never be economically feasible.

None of the possible theoretical approaches to hydrogen-boron fusion have been tested.

['CrossTheBreeze]

Because God has given me His spirit of love

How do you know it wasn't just wind?

More seriously, all you are saying is you feel something you can't explain so you have attributed it to a paranormal source. It could have been invisible pixies at the bottom of your garden, you have found an explanation you are comfortable with. What if it was the devil pretending to be god? I've heard he can be a bit of a trickster, although that may be a vicious rumour; I don't want to cast aspersions.

I know someone who met three people who all claimed to be the reincarnated spirit of Henry VIII. They can't all have been right.

[Game_Over]

Why have you used hydrogen-boron fusion as an example? This is much more difficult to achieve than deuterium-tritium fusion.

D-T fusion requires temperatures of 670 million degrees Celsius whereas H-B requires 6.6 billion degrees Celsius. The peak reaction rate is one third of D-T and the power density is 700~2500 times lower. Even if hydrogen-boron fusion was technically possible it may never be economically feasible.

None of the possible theoretical approaches to hydrogen-boron fusion have been tested.

Because I was having a totally pointless discussion with Kurt about whether fusion reactions gave off no radiation or practically no radiation.

[Game_Over]

How do you know it wasn't just wind?

More seriously, all you are saying is you feel something you can't explain so you have attributed it to a paranormal source. It could have been invisible pixies at the bottom of your garden, you have found an explanation you are comfortable with. What if it was the devil pretending to be god? I've heard he can be a bit of a trickster, although that may be a vicious rumour; I don't want to cast aspersions.

I know someone who met three people who all claimed to be the reincarnated spirit of Henry VIII. They can't all have been right.

You are just being an *rse now, because he said he would not take the thread off topic by defending himself

Either post something relevant to the thread or p*ss off.

If you want to ridicule people try starting your own thread and see how long it lasts.

[Game_Over]

Back on topic, and a reminder of the title.

" Oil Will Be Cheap And Plentiful For At Least 100 Years"

You had better tell the Saudi's of this good news, they intend to use up their oil themselves by becoming the worlds largest manufacturing nation.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

The country’s population has more than tripled to 25 million people from 7.3 million in 1975 -- and 57 percent of all Saudis are under the age of 25. As the population grows, the kingdom’s riches must be spread among more people: In 2008, per- capita gross domestic product was less than $19,000, versus $47,000 in the U.S. and $103,000 in Qatar.

To create jobs for its growing citizenry, the government wants to build cities and diversify into new industries. “The impetus to change has grown as the population has grown,†says Howard Handy, chief economist at Samba Financial Group, a Riyadh-based bank. “They’re very focused on how to find work for all these young people.â€

The proposed economic city -- 720 kilometers (450 miles) north of the capital of Riyadh -- is one of four new metropolises that Saudi Arabia is planning in the hope of creating more than a million new jobs by 2020. “Their dream is to become a major industrial power beyond oil,†says Jean- Francois Seznec, who teaches at the center for contemporary Arab studies at Georgetown University in Washington. The Saudis are mainly looking at energy-hungry industries such as plastics, petrochemicals, aluminum and steel.

So it seems like the Saudis, rather than planning for when the oil runs out

are actually planning for when external demand for their oil dries up

Perhaps the US have tipped them off that they are only 10-15 years away from commercial fusion

Or perhaps the US have informed them that they intend to achieve energy independence in the next 10-15 years

Either way it doesn't look like the Saudis are expecting the oil to run out any time soon

['CrossTheBreeze]

Because I was having a totally pointless discussion with Kurt about whether fusion reactions gave off no radiation or practically no radiation.

So you picked the least likely form of fusion because it produces little radiation? So you were just being an *rse?

D-T fusion has been sustained for 0.5 seconds in the JET project but following the D-T experiments future experiments had to be done remotely because the reactor vessel was radioactive. 80% of the energy is released as neutrons which make the surrounding reactor vessel radioactive, produce tritium which is hard to contain, and damage the structural integrity of the reactor.

If sustained fusion is achieved there will still be the problem of how to build a reactor that will last long enough to be economical and no-one knows what the effects of release of tritium by large numbers of power stations will have on the environment. When inhaled, ingested or absorbed through skin it can cause health problems.

Fusion will create less radioactive waste than fission if it ever works, but fusion power stations are decades away from reality.

[Game_Over]

I saw you it doing throughout the entire thread and thought I'd have a go. Sorry if I stepped on your toes.

Already have.

It was a serious point. Methinkshe took the thread off-topic several posts ago because her on topic posts were not convincing. Having had no success on the off-topic approach she tried to stop further debate by claiming she didn't want to take the thread off-topic. It was a bit late for that.

I don't pick arguments with people if they have already said they don't want an argument.

Also, it may have been a serious point but it was framed in a manner designed to ridicule the poster who had already said that they did not wish to discuss the matter further.

And they did this because I asked them not to, so I think it is her you owe an apology to actually.

['CrossTheBreeze]

You are just being an *rse now, because he said he would not take the thread off topic by defending himself

I saw you it doing throughout the entire thread and thought I'd have a go. Sorry if I stepped on your toes.

Either post something relevant to the thread or p*ss off.

Already have.

It was a serious point. Methinkshe took the thread off-topic several posts ago because her on topic posts were not convincing. Having had no success on the off-topic approach she tried to stop further debate by claiming she didn't want to take the thread off-topic. It was a bit late for that.

Edited June 2, 2009 by 'CrossTheBreeze

[Methinkshe]

I saw you it doing throughout the entire thread and thought I'd have a go. Sorry if I stepped on your toes.

Already have.

It was a serious point. Methinkshe took the thread off-topic several posts ago because her on topic posts were not convincing. Having had no success on the off-topic approach she tried to stop further debate by claiming she didn't want to take the thread off-topic. It was a bit late for that.

As far as I recall, the thread went off at a tangent in response to Steve Cook's overpopulation claims.

However, my memory could be wrong and, tbh, I cannot be bothered to retrace a dozen or more pages to discover exactly whose post about what caused the thread to end up as a discussion about the existence of God.

Nevertheless, in recognising that the thread had gone off-topic, out of courtesy to the OP I declined to continue the sub-debate about the existence of God. That was my sole motive, whatever else you care to believe.

[Kurt Barlow]

So loads of tankers full of oil that no one wants, proves that we are short of oil!

If you say so.

Its called destocking you twit and is a fairly common occurence in a recession. Cash flow is tight so you run down your stocks.

[Kurt Barlow]

So you picked the least likely form of fusion because it produces little radiation? So you were just being an *rse?

D-T fusion has been sustained for 0.5 seconds in the JET project but following the D-T experiments future experiments had to be done remotely because the reactor vessel was radioactive. 80% of the energy is released as neutrons which make the surrounding reactor vessel radioactive, produce tritium which is hard to contain, and damage the structural integrity of the reactor.

If sustained fusion is achieved there will still be the problem of how to build a reactor that will last long enough to be economical and no-one knows what the effects of release of tritium by large numbers of power stations will have on the environment. When inhaled, ingested or absorbed through skin it can cause health problems.

Fusion will create less radioactive waste than fission if it ever works, but fusion power stations are decades away from reality.

Not in Gameovers la la fantasy World. Anything he says will come true!

[Kurt Barlow]

So it seems like the Saudis, rather than planning for when the oil runs out

are actually planning for when external demand for their oil dries up

Perhaps the US have tipped them off that they are only 10-15 years away from commercial fusion

Or perhaps the US have informed them that they intend to achieve energy independence in the next 10-15 years

Either way it doesn't look like the Saudis are expecting the oil to run out any time soon

Ghawar is dying - the Saudis know it, every petroleum geologist knows it. Thats why they are planning ahead.

Whats your source for the USA being only 10-15 years away from commercial fusion (by that I mean a design with a lifetime of 40 years plus and EROEI in excess of 5)?

[Game_Over]

Ghawar is dying - the Saudis know it, every petroleum geologist knows it. Thats why they are planning ahead.

Whats your source for the USA being only 10-15 years away from commercial fusion (by that I mean a design with a lifetime of 40 years plus and EROEI in excess of 5)?

So why are the Saudis planning to invest in energy intensive industries then?

Sounds like they are expecting external demand for their oil to fall dramatically in the near future.

And if the US had solved the problem of commercial fusion do you really think they would be posting the plans on the internet?

['CrossTheBreeze]

Perhaps the US have tipped them off that they are only 10-15 years away from commercial fusion

ITER is a joint project supported by European Union, India, Japan, China, Russia, South Korea, and the USA.

Its aims are:

* To momentarily produce ten times more thermal energy from fusion heating than is supplied by auxiliary heating

* To produce a steady-state plasma with a Q value greater than 5.

* To maintain a fusion pulse for up to eight minutes.

* To ignite a 'burning' (self-sustaining) plasma.

* To develop technologies and processes needed for a fusion power plant — including superconducting magnets and remote handling (maintenance by robot).

* To verify tritium breeding concepts.

* To refine neutron shield/heat conversion technology (most of energy in the D+T fusion reaction is released in the form of fast neutrons).

It is scheduled to be switched on in 2018.

If ITER is successful DEMO will go ahead with the intention of producing thermal energy 25 times that supplied.

* Conceptual design is to be complete by 2017

* Engineering design is to be complete by 2024

* The first 'Construction Phase' is to last from 2024 to 2033

* The first phase of operation is to last from 2033 to 2038

* The plant is then to be expanded/updated

* The second phase of operation is to last from 2040 onwards

The people planning and funding research into fusion aren't as optimistic as you.

[SMAC67]

Humans are social creatures, someone is always going to be in charge and we are always going to be governed by some system or another

If this wasn't the case, we wouldn't be human.

No, not necessarily, time for some anthropology for you my lad. The current way of organising our life is a small blip on a large timescale (in human terms anyway). It will pass, and we will find another way, but not until our current economic system collapses. It won't collapse until oil depletion commences or it's usage kills the bio-sphere.

Oil will be cheap and plentiful for at least 100 years is your claim, which is the reason depletion is going to come as a shock. Since you assume you will be dead before it is a problem, it is not your problem, hence you do not need to do anything. This is the prevalant belief system on the planet. With no-one doing anything it will very quickly become a real problem.

This part of human behaviour is well understood why sociologists. In large groups no-one takes responsibility. As an aside, people in large groups will always go for a solution that is more extreme than their own beliefs. People attenuate their beliefs within a group structure. Hence bubbles, and investment through herd mentality.

We will continue to fight over resources, and we will do so along, ethnic, class, and religious boundaries. Osama Bin Laden is the spiritual leader of the muslims and George Bush (and now B Obama) are the leaders of the christians as both groups fight over the dwindling resource we call oil.

We weren't always like this, and even today, not all people behave in this manner. Some people are capable of living in peace and symbiosis with the planet. Of course we try and kill them, they are a barrier to "progress".

Petrol seems to be over £1 a litre again, I thought it was supposed to be cheap for 100 years?

[SMAC67]

Back on topic, and a reminder of the title.

" Oil Will Be Cheap And Plentiful For At Least 100 Years"

You had better tell the Saudi's of this good news, they intend to use up their oil themselves by becoming the worlds largest manufacturing nation.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

The country’s population has more than tripled to 25 million people from 7.3 million in 1975 -- and 57 percent of all Saudis are under the age of 25. As the population grows, the kingdom’s riches must be spread among more people: In 2008, per- capita gross domestic product was less than $19,000, versus $47,000 in the U.S. and $103,000 in Qatar.

To create jobs for its growing citizenry, the government wants to build cities and diversify into new industries. “The impetus to change has grown as the population has grown,†says Howard Handy, chief economist at Samba Financial Group, a Riyadh-based bank. “They’re very focused on how to find work for all these young people.â€

The proposed economic city -- 720 kilometers (450 miles) north of the capital of Riyadh -- is one of four new metropolises that Saudi Arabia is planning in the hope of creating more than a million new jobs by 2020. “Their dream is to become a major industrial power beyond oil,†says Jean- Francois Seznec, who teaches at the center for contemporary Arab studies at Georgetown University in Washington. The Saudis are mainly looking at energy-hungry industries such as plastics, petrochemicals, aluminum and steel.

I just do not understand how people cannot understand the illogicallity and madness of the above. Saudi Arabia is the world's oil producer, what energy source do they intend to use to keep their mega cities and increasing populations going? Sunlight?

It's just not workable but it looks like they will use what they have left pursuing this folly. They can't be blamed really, most of the planet is doing exactly the same..............

[SMAC67]

So loads of properties that no one wants, proves that we are short of houses!

If you say so.

[Methinkshe]

I don't pick arguments with people if they have already said they don't want an argument.

Also, it may have been a serious point but it was framed in a manner designed to ridicule the poster who had already said that they did not wish to discuss the matter further.

And they did this because I asked them not to, so I think it is her you owe an apology to actually.

No apology needed, but thank you GameOver, anyway.

The myth that I and Gameover and others would like to dispel is, imo, one that was perpetuated, if not perpetrated, by a book called "The Limits to Growth" published in the 1970s.

Its connections with The Club of Rome are well attested, but thereafter the connections become murky but by no means untraceable to such unsavoury outfits as the Bilderbergers ( Charlie Skelton's Bilderberg Files) if one cares to do the research. To cut a long story short, there is a global intent of the elite to maintain their elevated position through subjugating the masses - was it ever any different?

Some of the ways that control of the global population can be established is through perpetuating fear.

A fear of:

a) Over-population

b ) Climate change

c) Limited natural resources

And having instilled a fear of manufactured problems, the solutions are presented. That they amount to robbery and theft is not perceived by a population that has been terrified into capitulation.

But the solutions to a) b ) c) as propagated by the global elite are:

a) Enforced birth control (eugenics by another name)

b ) Taxation and more of it

c) Secure a supply (of whatever natural resource) by seeing off any indigenous oppostion via enforced birth control/eugenics, plus many other ruses.

Are you really going to fall for it?