S&p/case-schiller Home Prices Continue Downward March

[drrayjo]

Hey bulls, at least not every record got broken this time! And while deterioration is not slowing, it's not accelerating at record levels either!

...basically it's dire business as usual.

U.S. home prices continued their multiyear tumble in March, according to the S&P Case-Shiller home-price indexes, as the downdraft shows no near-term signs of abating.

For the first quarter, the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index posted a 19.1% drop from a year earlier, the biggest quarterly decline for the reading's 21-year history.

Separately, the monthly numbers showed 15 of 20 major metropolitan areas posted price declines of more than 10% from a year earlier, with the Sun Belt continuing to be hit hardest. Nationally, home prices are at levels similar to the fourth quarter of 2002.

David M. Blitzer, chairman of S&P's index committee, noted that March was only the second time since October 2007 that both the 10- and 20-city index didn't report record annual price declines.

Still, three of the 20 metro areas reported record monthly declines: Minneapolis, Detroit and New York. Minneapolis had a 6.1% drop just in March, the biggest-ever monthly decline measured by the index.

The indexes showed prices in 10 major metropolitan areas fell 18.6% in March from a year earlier and 2.1% from February. In 20 major metropolitan areas, home prices dropped 18.7% from the prior year and 2.2% from February.

Two regions reported a slight price increase in March from a month earlier: Charlotte and Denver. A third, Dallas, was flat. Also, nine of the 20 areas reported better month-to-month results in March than February.

For the 12th straight month, no region was able to avoid a year-over-year decline. Phoenix and Las Vegas were again the worst performers, with drops of 36% and 31%, respectively. Phoenix is down 53% from its peak in June 2006. Dallas has been the least hurt, down 11% from its June 2007 peak.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124334273595354315.html

[Concrete Jungle]

Recovereh?

[drrayjo]

Recovereh?

It has only been three months, but prices are tracking close to the 'More Adverse' scenario so far.

Federal "stress test" scenarios that is....

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/

[Executive Sadman]

Federal "stress test" scenarios that is....

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/

Ye Gods!!

I find it somewhat intrigueing also that our own building societies are stress tested for a 40% decline, and all the building socs are rather conveniently pedicting total falls of 30-35%...

[bomberbrown]

Federal "stress test" scenarios that is....

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/

I love that site. I also love the monthly summaries in graphs.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/04/...-in-graphs.html

[Selling up]

For the first quarter, the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index posted a 19.1% drop from a year earlier, the biggest quarterly decline for the reading's 21-year history.

This makes no sense.

If it's an annual drop then it's not a quarterly decline!!!

[yellerkat]

This makes no sense.

If it's an annual drop then it's not a quarterly decline!!!

I think it's just the way they phrase things in the US.

Comparing 1Q08 with 1Q09.

[Selling up]

I think it's just the way they phrase things in the US.

Comparing 1Q08 with 1Q09.

They should learn to talk proper like I.

[three pint princess]

New York, May 26, 2009 – Data through March 2009, released today by Standard & Poor’s for its

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show that the U.S.

National Home Price Index continues to set record declines, a trend that began in late 2007 and

prevailed throughout 2008.

Nationally, home prices are back to their late-2002 levels

Recovereh!!!

Edit: From the peak, home prices are down 32.2%

Edited May 26, 2009 by Tom Peters

[drrayjo]

New York, May 26, 2009 – Data through March 2009, released today by Standard & Poor’s for its

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show that the U.S.

National Home Price Index continues to set record declines, a trend that began in late 2007 and

prevailed throughout 2008.

Nationally, home prices are back to their late-2002 levels

Recovereh!!!

The markets are on drugs and love this news, along with tooled-up North Koreans and the bell tolling for GM;

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10505129/1/...?cm_ven=GOOGLEN

[Sybil13]

Ye Gods!!

I find it somewhat intrigueing also that our own building societies are stress tested for a 40% decline, and all the building socs are rather conveniently pedicting total falls of 30-35%...

Moodys stress tested on "the assumption now being 40% falls" but also tested for 60%.

RBS and Lloyds were stress tested for 50% and another 2 years of recession I believe.

Last boom crash propery went up 47% and fell 35% , this boom property has gone up 147% since 1999 and......to be honest 60% does look likely.

Why US house prices will keep crashing

Always worth another read:

And why should Britons worry about it?

But why else should Britons worry about imploding US home prices?

Firstly because whatever our politicians are telling us, many banks won't want, or even be able, to lend very much while the losses on their dodgy US dabblings keep growing.

And secondly because what happens in US housing is a good guide to our own property market. The US crash started a good 12-18 months before ours, yet it's continuing. There are more than enough domestic reasons why British property prices will keep dropping, as we've pointed out several times recently: Longer dole queues are bad news for house prices. But while the housing market keeps imploding on the other side of the Atlantic, there's even less chance of a turnaround over here.

Edited May 26, 2009 by Sybil13

[interestrateripoff]

When we finally hit bottom it will be interesting to see how far prices have fallen from peak.

It still doesn't look like we are approaching bottom yet.

Those stress tests had better been thorough as it appears we'll soon be at those levels. We have to hope they didn't fudge them so the banks would pass, luckily I doubt they would have been that incompetent.

[spivT]

RBS and Lloyds were stress tested for 50% and another 2 years of recession I believe.

if that's the case why haven't we seen the results......or have i missed the bulletin ? Or is it just too gruesome a read.

[CokeSnortingTory]

I remember when Prince sang "tonight we're gonna party like it's 1999" and he was looking to the future.

He could sing it again now, and he'd still be looking to the future......

[Sybil13]

if that's the case why haven't we seen the results......or have i missed the bulletin ? Or is it just too gruesome a read.

Hi just quoting Telegraph via HPC

HPC Bloomberg FSA Stress Tests

The results for UK banks have not been released despite the admission from the US government two weeks ago that similar tests showed 10 lenders needed to boost their reserves by a total of $74.6bn (£47bn). Barclays is the only bank to have been open about its test results. It is thought to have been asked questions such as what would happen if there was a 50pc fall in house prices or a recession lasting more than two years.

Sources close to one major UK bank subjected to stress testing suggested that the decision to withhold the information was "political rather than financial".

Edited May 26, 2009 by Sybil13

[ccc]

The US crash started a good 12-18 months before ours - Moneyweek

Agggggggggggghh.

Why do even publications like this fail to do simple research ? The difference is 18 months. On the nose.

Compare S &P/Case Shiller Vs Hali/NWide

Overall - the US went YoY negative in Oct 2006

Overall - the UK went YoY negative in Apr 2008

Very simple.

As for Scotland we are a full 24 months behind. They were right all along. It is different here.