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P.P, it is always a good idea to have a "barometer", you are using palladium for this if I understand you right? Any particular reason for this? Seems like a good idea.

..../....

VT just a quick update (and a request for your quick thoughts if you have the time). I had seen some of your posts on gei re. the dollar (i'm double-agent btw) and specifically the one re. volume which looked quite compelling; needless to say a bullish $ mid-term could put a dampener on the precious metals...

As you know i have been using palladium as a bellwether for pm sentiment mainly because it is seemingly less volatile in it's movement and has been holding very consistent channels since last years lows. The following graph shows how pd has upped a gear since mid-august when resistance became support (whilst still holding channels):

pd.gif

Now, assuming this is indeed a bellwether for pm's (and of course i could be barking up the wrong tree or just plain barking), then we are currently testing support at the mo (weekly data points). Interestingly, with gold overlaid (timescale to fit), there is some consistency and support is also being tested:

pdau2.gif

So......... next week could give some clues as to whether the current mid-term bull-run is running out of steam or not as the case may be.

IF (and boy this is a big if), the current mid-term bull-run remains in place then will silver threaten to peak again? (fantasy image time now -_- )

thedchannel.gif

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Hi PP, ah really your DoubleAgent, its a small world,haha...been quite hectic last few days I ll respond to this properly tomorrow night. I can't do it justice right now...Just one quick chart with some linear regression channels and volume by price. I would be on the side of a correction in palladium to "at least" 340USD...We are certainly at a point where is there is an equilibrium between accumulators and distribution. I would say that this week will start to balance or break this equilibrium between buyers and sellers...and I m more inclined to say to the downside, how much I don't know, but certainly 340 is a good place to start, failing that perhaps more. The other thing that cannot be ruled out is another spike up, however, if that happens(which I don't think it will, nut who knows) and I see a divergence between volume/price relationship then I think it will be a strong sell signal. For now though I d rather sell with a tight stop than be a buyer.

This chart shows that this price level is an area of very high volume. Its an area in palladium where buyers/sellers love to meet and have a good old tug of war with the price. The bottoming area last November you notice also was a very high area of volume. Usually when these battles between the bulls and bears conclude its possible a "biggish" move can occur. Other volume behaviour to me says it is ripe to correct, between 350-360 seems like a good area to be short, perhaps on a four chart, or an hourly chart with some nice trend indicator overlayed.

1261261386_65_UploadImage.png

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Hi PP, ah really your DoubleAgent, its a small world,haha...been quite hectic last few days I ll respond to this properly tomorrow night. I can't do it justice right now...Just one quick chart with some linear regression channels and volume by price. I would be on the side of a correction in palladium to "at least" 340USD...We are certainly at a point where is there is an equilibrium between accumulators and distribution. I would say that this week will start to balance or break this equilibrium between buyers and sellers...and I m more inclined to say to the downside, how much I don't know, but certainly 340 is a good place to start, failing that perhaps more. The other thing that cannot be ruled out is another spike up, however, if that happens(which I don't think it will, nut who knows) and I see a divergence between volume/price relationship then I think it will be a strong sell signal. For now though I d rather sell with a tight stop than be a buyer.

This chart shows that this price level is an area of very high volume. Its an area in palladium where buyers/sellers love to meet and have a good old tug of war with the price. The bottoming area last November you notice also was a very high area of volume. Usually when these battles between the bulls and bears conclude its possible a "biggish" move can occur. Other volume behaviour to me says it is ripe to correct, between 350-360 seems like a good area to be short, perhaps on a four chart, or an hourly chart with some nice trend indicator overlayed.

1261261386_65_UploadImage.png

i love those charts with the volume at the lhs.

pd has swung violently to the upside, but looks as if it will remain in the secondary channel (will know for sure later at close of play today). if it does break to the upside, there is the possibility that a spike is imminent. looking at the onset of the 1999/2000 spike, there was certain times when mini-spikes occurred (on the way to $1100). e.g.

pd2000.gif

now, if we compare that with this years actions there are some similarities (namely a 'run-up' of consecutive monthly higher prices):

pd2009.gif

so, is a mini-spike imminent? I have no idea! but if the most recent channel is broken to the upside, i would wager there is a strong possibility. otherwise, if the price stays within the most recent channel, then it's back to watching for a break out of the channel on either side.

btw, i have started a thread on trading at 24k if anyone's interested, not that i proclaim to know what i am talking about, but i like to learn nevertheless :P

Edited by p.p.

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The website below has brought together, and summarised, the 2010 outlooks from the major bank’s analysts and from a handful of market ‘gurus’. It will be interesting to see how these predictions stand up as the year unfolds. The analysis from Goldmans and Morgan Stanley is the most interesting (especially as it is conflicting).

Even though there isn’t much conviction around as a whole, the award for fence-sitting still very clearly goes to Deutsche Bank. Their useful insight into the 2010 is that it might be a great year, it will probably be a good year, it could well be a bad year and there’s still a pretty good chance that it will be an awful year.

http://pragcap.com/t...ns-and-outlooks

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Wall Street Banks

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* UBS 2010 Outlook

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* 2010 Outlook From Northern Trust

* Bank Of America/Merrill Lynch Is Bullish On 2010

* Prudential’s 2010 Investment Outlook

* PIMCO’s 2010 Outlook

* PFG Best’s Look Back And Ahead

* Wall Street Is Very Bullish About 2010

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* Jim Rogers Is Still Skeptical

* Hussman: 80% Chance Of A Market Plunge

* Boeckh Investments

* Sprott Asset Management: The Rally Is Fake

* ECRI: The Recovery Will Continue In 2010

* Comstock Is Still Bearish

* Jeff Saut Debates Todd Harrison

* TCW’s 2010 Outlook

* Cumberland Advisors 2010 Outlook

* Biriyni’s 2010 Outlook

* Sam Stovall Is Cautiously Optimistic

* Steve Keen’s 2010 Investment Predictions

* Leuthold Turns More Cautious On 2010

* Robert Prechter: Stocks Will Fall In 2010

* David Tepper’s 2010 Outlook

* Richard Bernstein’s 10 for 2010

* 20 for 2010 By Doug Kass

* 2010 Outlook From ISI Group

Actionable Ideas, Alternative Assets & Potential Potholes

* RBC’s top trades for 2010

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* Gold Is In A Bubble And Could Crash

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* Dividends Could Play A More Important Role In 2010

* Goldman’s 2010 Commodity Outlook

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* The 4 Reasons Emerging Markets Will Outperform

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palladium finally coming back down?

pdwk280110.gif

will know tomorrow at close of play whether it stays above channel or not. on another note, silver getting whacked at the mo.

VT - where the feck r u? good call on the $ btw

Edited by p.p.

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this feels like the most likely next move downwards for the markets and for metals in my opinion if we are seeing another round of $ strength/deleveraging as the stimulus monies run out.

S+P has been keeping well below a key level of 1120 which is what ive been watching all week.

For me Prechter nailed it on the head this week

i think weve had a one year restbite to our multiyear depression

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE60O54Y20100125

but we will see i let the market bounce 50% before shorting and have still been well caught out by the bounce to date

Edited by getdoon_weebobby

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this feels like the most likely next move downwards for the markets and for metals in my opinion if we are seeing another round of $ strength/deleveraging as the stimulus monies run out.

S+P has been keeping well below a key level of 1120 which is what ive been watching all week.

For me Prechter nailed it on the head this week

i think weve had a one year restbite to our multiyear depression

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE60O54Y20100125

but we will see i let the market bounce 50% before shorting and have still been well caught out by the bounce to date

gold and silver are both resting at crucial price points at the mo - the next month will be all-telling wrt the precious metals

my only problem with the current situation in the SMs is the perceived notion that the markets will turn down / are turning down from so many commentators, but then again i maybe listen to too many contrarians.

the third way could be a long slow mid-channel mediocrity of no-direction, as the 'debt-fuelled' recovery grinds on.

any significant changes in IR's could sway the balance

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agreed p.p

for me the markets have picked up substancially in volatility since last thurday (obama/china/greece etc)

interesting times again as we see if stimulus are withdrawn / if rates go up / effects etc etc etc of the government fiscal withdrawals

im probably somewhat bias in my opinions too, as im still finding myself in the greater deflationary depression camp.

ps great video on paulson in another thread yesterday , hadnt seen that footage again since the day it . thanks p.p

Edited by getdoon_weebobby

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just a reminder that you only have couple of weeks to fill your ISA allowances etc before tax year finishes.

im not a big fan of pensions , but am puting some money in a sipp to take advantage of higher rate tax relief (next govt will probably end this completely)

in relation to shares ISA if you maximise yours and your partners allowances thats £7200 each , rising to £10,200 after april 5th . so from april 5th you could have £35k in a nice tax free wrapper.

in current times im looking for big solid stable shares priced in £s , that make there money mainly abroad . and are paying good dividend yield . i like defensives.

as an example bought 3 shares this week for my ISA - vodafone , glaxosmithkline , astrazeneca and 1 fund - invesco perpetual high income fund.

for me these are a long term hold , where i am looking for dividends which i will reinvest (this is very important) , capital gains are a bonus.

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P.P, it is always a good idea to have a "barometer", you are using palladium for this if I understand you right? Any particular reason for this? Seems like a good idea.

update on the pd barometer:

pdpuch.gif

which is at a crucial point, breakthrough or another wave cycle?

ps. i wish you would get your ass back here VT, miss your input man!

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Is a simple strategy of buying blue chip company shares after bad news comes out likely to produce good results in the medium to long term? Again from an amateur's perspective, with little understanding of the overall financial strength of the company.

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