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2 key baselines being tested in silver and palladium at the mo. the pd trend has been my commodity market bellwether since the destructive sell-off last autumn; if this one breaks, hold onto your hats!

ag.jpg

pd.jpg

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post-6179-1246999752_thumb.jpg

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I managed to read about half of The Intelligent Investor on holiday- it's a good read and I'd recommend it to anyone who wants to learn about investment. Thanks bobby.

I decided that I don't have the time to be an active aggressive investor or speculator. Ofcourse I'd love to sit behind my computer and print money day trading but this isn't a realistic possibility due to my work commitments. Actually, Graham seemed to be dead against day trading due to the increased brokerage costs of frequently buying and selling. Have things changed in the electronic age?

I don't think I can reasonably evaluate individual stocks or predict if interest rates will rise or predict currency movements or anything really. I do think stocks are a good long term investment though, and I plan to buy stocks with about 15% of my savings and also some bonds. I would like to use my ISA allowance and then use the "dollar cost averaging" method. I want to buy foreign stocks, probably american. What's the easiest way to do this? Use an IFA? Vanguard? Other?

I thought of loads of questions to ask you all when I was reading the book, some where

Are the stocks of the major companies in the DOW/FTSE100 overpriced using traditional methods such as p/e ratio?

Are stocks/gold really a poor hedge against inflation as Graham argues?

Do most of the major stocks still pay dividends?

Also, I'm relatively young with no real ties, and I like to gamble. I'm thinking about making a speculative bet with about 5-10% of my savings. I'm prepared for the downside of losing it for a possible upside of a big return. Any ideas?

Edit: For the bet, something like, lose £1 90% of the time, win >£10 10% would be ok.

Edited by Reraise

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2 key baselines being tested in silver and palladium at the mo. the pd trend has been my commodity market bellwether since the destructive sell-off last autumn; if this one breaks, hold onto your hats!

post-6179-1246999728_thumb.jpg

post-6179-1246999752_thumb.jpg

interesting things are afoot - palladium breaks though resistance / silver needs to make a decision:

post-6179-1251584663_thumb.jpg

post-6179-1251584676_thumb.jpg

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I've recently come across this thread and have found reading from the beginning very interesting. I trade both in the US and UK through seperate brokerage accounts. I tried day trading a few years back but was not able to get into it, I am not proficient with a numeric keypad and have a right hand injury. Anyhow it was all too fast paced and fraught for me.

I've been reading your comments on channeling, I also tried that, even subscribing to channelingstocks.com for leads.

As was mentioned in another post the problem here can be setting stops, I found I all too often got stopped out by the mm or a midday dip and lost the trade. A trade I've been having success with in this market has been picking a stock I like for fundamental reasons and trading around a full position.

Basically if I like a stock for the next few months and a position may be 1000 shares I dca into the stock over about a week, if the stock pops up a few % (I set different amounts for different stocks/sectors) on any day I sell a third of the position, it goes up again I sell another third, if the stock (and the market) have a down day I rebuy a third, and on and on. Somewhat similar to channeling but I find it more successful and easier to controol the trade. Obviously I use a discount broker and I basically take no tax implications into consideration when I trade.

I look forward to reading more informed posts on this thread, thanks.

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I've recently come across this thread and have found reading from the beginning very interesting. I trade both in the US and UK through seperate brokerage accounts. I tried day trading a few years back but was not able to get into it, I am not proficient with a numeric keypad and have a right hand injury. Anyhow it was all too fast paced and fraught for me.

I've been reading your comments on channeling, I also tried that, even subscribing to channelingstocks.com for leads.

As was mentioned in another post the problem here can be setting stops, I found I all too often got stopped out by the mm or a midday dip and lost the trade. A trade I've been having success with in this market has been picking a stock I like for fundamental reasons and trading around a full position.

Basically if I like a stock for the next few months and a position may be 1000 shares I dca into the stock over about a week, if the stock pops up a few % (I set different amounts for different stocks/sectors) on any day I sell a third of the position, it goes up again I sell another third, if the stock (and the market) have a down day I rebuy a third, and on and on. Somewhat similar to channeling but I find it more successful and easier to controol the trade. Obviously I use a discount broker and I basically take no tax implications into consideration when I trade.

I look forward to reading more informed posts on this thread, thanks.

hello, welcome to the forum.

nothing to add as yet - but i look forward to reading your posts in the future

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ive been interested in "having a go" at investing, i have done my own research, and i am confident in investing my own hard earned cash. i have £1000 avaliable to do what i wish with, and i was just thinking to invest the lot in 1 company, i have a company in mind, (one in my imagineary portfolio) and it will be a long term punt,

its for more of locking the money away, and making some proffit than trying to get rich in the next 7 days. im thinking 3-5 years

what are your thoughts, i know diversity is king, but is it worth spreading that amount of money? i probably wont be putting any more money into that or any other company, and it will just sit there till i need the money, or it makes a good proffit.

or is there somethnig other i could put my money in, i dont want ot put it just in abank account

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interesting things are afoot - palladium breaks though resistance / silver needs to make a decision:

pd.jpg

here's a chart showing resistance turned into support for palladium

pd2.jpg

post-6179-1252445745_thumb.jpg

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here's a chart showing resistance turned into support for palladium

pd2.jpg

Hi PP, I have been watching this chart also for the last 2 weeks as you have put it in my head. I ll post later a couple of charts of it and my thoughts.

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Hi PP, I have been watching this chart also for the last 2 weeks as you have put it in my head. I ll post later a couple of charts of it and my thoughts.

things are getting interesting again

agpd.jpg

post-6179-12548412667527_thumb.jpg

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things are getting interesting again

agpd.jpg

EDIT to ADD, not quite used to the new board yet. It does actually seem alot better function wise. If you right click the charts and hit view image then you ll see the full chart on a separate tab.

Hi PP, yeah I have been keeping an eye on all the metals, and the gold/silver ratio also. So gold makes new highs. I wonder if this is or could be the bellwether for future problems in the economy or credit markets. With US T-bonds rising in price, the flattening yield curve and the gold price soaring it may be a signal. Remember back arounf the time Bear Stearns failed gold soared in a similar fashion as today, March 2008. It seems that gold is anticipates future economic problems with these abrupt moves up.1254909823_11_UploadImage.png

The arrow shows the rise in gold before the train wreck of the summer and autumn of 2008. It might be something to keep an eye on.

Here are two palladium charts. I don't trade the metal but I like to keep an eye on it.

1254910074_21_UploadImage.png

This is the weekly chart, where I like to define the trend, primary trend at least. The system signal is automated with the software placing the blue arrows to trade on the long side and the orange ones to trade on the downside. There are quite a few parameters however the indicators are not visible on the chart as the arrows keep the chart "clean" The system gave the long signal in mid february for Pa and the trend has remained intact.

Next move to the daily chart. As the primary trend is up on the weekly, we only want to be taking longs on a shorter timeframe.

1254910611_40_UploadImage.png

This chart is quite messy, but hopefully it will make sense. On this chart we have volume, some resistance lines in red, and a keltner standard deviation bar overlayed on the volume. The very bottom indicator is a derivative from the volume and kelter overlay. This is really to smooth out the volume trend and remove the spikey noise, to see easily see where the volume reaches peaks and troughs and divergences between volume and price occur.

Basically when the orange crosses over the blue line to the upside we have slow rising volume, and vice versa when the orange crosses the blue to to the downside. It all gives a clue to the future direction of volume. When it flatlines around the bottom at historically low volume levels, then we know volume is likely to rise again, and when it peaks we know volume is likely to fall. All in all, I think it does a good job of smoothing th volume trend with very few whipsaws and takes out the noise.

Some points to note:

Now since we have established the uptrend on the weekly, a useful strategy is to trade long in the direction of the price, when the volume indicator bottoms, or starts to move up. If you look at every touch of the bottom channel, volume was flat, but then started to rise as the orange average crossed the blue. A useful way is to trade in the direction of the price and volume. This strategy works nicely.

Now if you look at the peaks between Feb until today the volume spikes have been decreasing in size. The spikes in volume have declined 12% between Feb and August. At the resistance at circa 300, there was heavy sell volume, and now we are moving up on low volumes...volume has fall 74% since the last peak. So perhaps we will reach the 330 mark before a sell off, and failing that next target will be 372...Volume is historically low. It will be interesting to see if volume starts to rise with price. Or will volume start to rise with a decling price. As the trend is up on the weekly chart, then for now we have to go with the trend. Of course we have to go with what is happening and react. I m not going to make a solid prediction on what might happen as it is easy to become dogmatic that way. It is ok for fundamentals, but with actual trading i think it is better to use price as the ultimate guide. However, if forced to take a bias, with a more than 50/50 either way, I think a strong move up is possible to 372, before a sharp move down. However, if volume contines to weaken and gets stronger on the downside and any indicators give sells the we ll go with that. Finally here is a clean daily chart with no channels and the system applying the buy signals with green arrows..

It uses slightly different rules for alerts than the weekly one and is more reactive. Even with the aid of the channel it has given some very nice buys...Remember the red arrows do not denote sells, as the prmary trend is up, so we will only trade in the long direction until that weekly trend changes, unless we get extremely overbought and go parabolic. I have hidden the actual indicators as I don't really want to post them on a public forum, however, if anyone os genunely interested discussing some methods then PM me...

By the way I have been traded just applying part of the system I would use over palladium.

1254912915_83_UploadImage.png

Edited by VedantaTrader

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great charts vt - thanks

how much is the subscription for your charting service if you don't mind me asking?

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i couldn't use the full editor on the last post (another one for the list of snags following the 'improvements' to this site.

anyway here's a chart looking at weekly silver

weeklysilver.jpg

however, this week has not finished as yet - hence the last position is not confirmed

post-6179-12549367775563_thumb.jpg

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great charts vt - thanks

how much is the subscription for your charting service if you don't mind me asking?

Well, it depends on what data feeds you use and how much real time intraday markets you want or need. SierraChart in and of itself is the best one I have used for what it gives you and value for money. I have used pretty much all the others, including esignal pro-realtime, tradestation and I really prefer this one. They provide the software, however, they have data services from many sources which you need to get the data. I think I use service level 3 with seperate subscriptions to CBOT Mini, CBOT gold, silver, wheat, corn, soybeans and also I use Mytrack for London Stock Exc data for all stocks...and also Barchart for foreign exchange data. Plus historical end of day data for 1000's of other markets, including all the future exchanges, indexes, LSE, T-bonds, all commodities, very usefull all in all. These are all the realtime services I use...I reckon I m over £50 a month...The program is based on C++, and you can do just about everything with it, from testing and wrting simple indicators to building and backtesting fully automated trading systems.

I reckon you if you wanted just historical data which is updated at the end of everyday you could get it for about £14 a month, which is great value for money. Or if you want forex also, around £15-20 per month.

You can get a free trial by the way, so you should try it. The website is no bells and whistles, but don't let that put you off.

Check this page out[/url.

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Well, it depends on what data feeds you use and how much real time intraday markets you want or need. SierraChart in and of itself is the best one I have used for what it gives you and value for money. I have used pretty much all the others, including esignal pro-realtime, tradestation and I really prefer this one. They provide the software, however, they have data services from many sources which you need to get the data. I think I use service level 3 with seperate subscriptions to CBOT Mini, CBOT gold, silver, wheat, corn, soybeans and also I use Mytrack for London Stock Exc data for all stocks...and also Barchart for foreign exchange data. Plus historical end of day data for 1000's of other markets, including all the future exchanges, indexes, LSE, T-bonds, all commodities, very usefull all in all. These are all the realtime services I use...I reckon I m over £50 a month...The program is based on C++, and you can do just about everything with it, from testing and wrting simple indicators to building and backtesting fully automated trading systems.

I reckon you if you wanted just historical data which is updated at the end of everyday you could get it for about £14 a month, which is great value for money. Or if you want forex also, around £15-20 per month.

You can get a free trial by the way, so you should try it. The website is no bells and whistles, but don't let that put you off.

Check this page out[/url.

To date I have used esignal and CQG . I dont use either now as the trading platform I use (Trading Technologies) now supplies charting at no extra cost.

Compared with what they offer and the price I paid I would say either of VT options seem very good value

just my 2p worth

Edited by getdoon_weebobby

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I have started using https://www.thinkorswim.com/ charts which are a free download, are similar I believe to tradestation, have historical data updated nightly etc. I think are a good option for most peoples purposes.

I'd be interested in hearing comments from anyone who may give them a test ride (it's free!).

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I have started using https://www.thinkorswim.com/ charts which are a free download, are similar I believe to tradestation, have historical data updated nightly etc. I think are a good option for most peoples purposes.

I'd be interested in hearing comments from anyone who may give them a test ride (it's free!).

thanks - i will have a look at that site this weekend

silver failed to make the breakout of the upper channel line so i will be looking if it can solidly bounce from a support set-up before the lower channel line

agfailedbreakout.jpg

the previous resistance channel line for palladium is still acting as support (weekly)

pdbounce.jpg

agfailedbreakout.jpg

pdbounce.jpg

post-6179-12568425577198_thumb.jpg

post-6179-12568425843391_thumb.jpg

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thanks - i will have a look at that site this weekend

silver failed to make the breakout of the upper channel line so i will be looking if it can solidly bounce from a support set-up before the lower channel line

agfailedbreakout.jpg

the previous resistance channel line for palladium is still acting as support (weekly)

pdbounce.jpg

PP how are you protecting your physical?

you might want to take a leaf out of this lads book!

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/shops-shock-tactics-fail-to-halt-revellers-in-midflow-1927525.html

you certainly dont want to be taking the proverbial with his mailbox!

it may not be pc

but for the

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5uXu067MTqI&feature=fvst

let them be

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zvoeeq-BH4w&feature=channel

rock on!

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PP how are you protecting your physical?

you might want to take a leaf out of this lads book!

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/shops-shock-tactics-fail-to-halt-revellers-in-midflow-1927525.html

rock on!

any potential robbers would leave empty-handed as all they could take with them is electronic signals down a phone line!

however, they would have to negotiate with Drax first

3471587621_cd78dcc402.jpg

provided they can overcome the language barrier first!

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any potential robbers would leave empty-handed as all they could take with them is electronic signals down a phone line!

however, they would have to negotiate with Drax first

3471587621_cd78dcc402.jpg

provided they can overcome the language barrier first!

ah if you only had big mama t

you dont need no houndog!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5XUAg1_A7IE

rock on!

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Lloyds down hard this am

is this indicative of a market correction as the bear market rally continues or is it all going south again?

I also wonder what the impact of the current Dubai crisis (Dubai not too big to fail?) is on Lloyds and other banks too PP.

I'd say that there are plenty of Canny McSavvy's currently exposed in Dubai. I wonder if NAMA will see another write down? Watch this space.

Edited by paul65

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I also wonder what the impact of the current Dubai crisis (Dubai not too big to fail?) is on Llyods and other banks too PP.

I'd say that there are plenty of Canny McSavvy's currently exposed in Dubai. I wonder if NAMA will see another write down too. Watch this space.

absolutely, the Dubai debt situation is interesting; it is affecting many markets and financials, however, this poses questions about the safety of the bond markets and sovereign debt.

Following the collapse of lehman (and quasi failure of aig) the markets turned and safety was temporarily sought in the dollar, is history repeating? who can say, but this time instead of banks going bust it might be individual states :o

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absolutely, the Dubai debt situation is interesting; it is affecting many markets and financials, however, this poses questions about the safety of the bond markets and sovereign debt.

Following the collapse of lehman (and quasi failure of aig) the markets turned and safety was temporarily sought in the dollar, is history repeating? who can say, but this time instead of banks going bust it might be individual states :o

almost certainly its head for the hills time again!

the question is who next?

baltic states

eastern europe

piggs

when one domino falls you just never know where it ends

it might be a surprise to most that with dubai toppling over

the horse racing industry in this island is now well and truly fecked!

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/dubai-default-alarm-hits-aib-shares-and-bond-markets-1955967.html

rock on!

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hsbc up to there neck too as the rumours go

been trying to tell a couple of friends who are in lloyds its a get in and get out trade but they are in the camp that its a one way bet (cant seem to get them to accept yes theyll probably never ever go bust but that the government might own 99% one day so what does that do for your shares ?!)

im a bear as they come but there are good oportunities in these shares but with money u can afford to lose.

i was short at 1.10p now im long as an example. (altho im bearish who is to say we dont have a short term rallly from here)

i think it not just the uncertainty over dubai but also who will be after dubai......

i was in dubai in may great deal on an amazing hotel but not a place i would ever rush back to. the girlfriend loved it but id rather be on a greek island personally if i want some sun or new york if i want shopping.

i still believe the end result of all this will be debt deflation probably followed later by inflation problems . i think this could be a turn in the markets although every drop to date has been a buying opportunity since march ..................

Edited by getdoon_weebobby

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