"truth About The Housing Market"

[OnionTerror]

http://www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/lifestyle/...ing-market.html

Truth about the housing market

By Louisa Fletcher, 24/05/2009

HOUSE price statistics . . . it was never going to be the most uplifting of subjects right now.

But it wasn't until I saw some conflicting figures this week that I realised two things.

1: How totally varied the impact of the recession is in different areas across the country.

2: Just how confusing the recently-available figures are for the average person.

So this week, I've made it my mission to try to de-mystify it a bit for you.

If you read the RightMove house price report which came out a few days ago, you'd be forgiven for thinking that things are, just slightly, getting better.

It shows that, on average across the UK, house prices have gone up by 2.4 per cent.

However, RightMove's figures are based on asking prices-what the property is on the market for-rather than actual sold prices.

The stats also show that a lot of people are staying away from putting their home up for sale.

Figures have dropped from 135,000 sellers this time last year, to just 61,000 this May. That's the lowest since 2003.

While we're all affected by the credit squeeze, there are three main groups who are particularly struggling in the current housing market, all of whom are having to stay away from selling.

THE EQUITY RELEASERS: These are the folk who, for the last seven or eight years, have habitually re-mortgaged in order to fund their lifestyles. Because they have spent all their cash, they now need to remortgage again as there's very little equity in their properties. For some, they are even in negative equity.

Hence, while they may WANT to move, they are STUCK.

RECENT BUYERS: People who bought around middle to late 2007 - when the market was at its peak.

Because it was still easy then to get a 95 per cent mortgage, this group- mostly first-time buyers-also have very little equity in their property.

They simply borrowed so much to buy so when prices dip they are quickly affected. Again, much as they may want to move, they can't.

Improve

EQUITY LOSERS: These guys are in the best position. Most will have decent equity in their property (around 25 per cent) and are borderline for the best mortgage deals.

But it doesn't add up for them to move right now so they are choosing to sit tight and wait until things improve.

So less property available means house prices will stabilise, which is why we're being told prices have gone up?

Sorry but no, that's not the case. Only the people who are absolutely desperate to move are selling right now - hence the slight rise in asking prices.

Zoopla.co.uk collect EVERY sold price in the UK, so have a good idea of how much people are ACTUALLY paying for homes right now. On average, Zoopla reckon house prices across the UK have fallen 20 per cent since the summer of '07.

But their research does suggests the drop may slow in the coming months.

So while it's not quite as bad as it all sounds-it's not quite as rosy either.

Got a question for Louisa? Email it to louisa.fletcher@notw.co.uk

[red]

The News of The World idiot's guide to equity and benign, 'sitting on the fence' journalism.

I suppose we should be grateful they're not ramping Rightmove's figures...

[cashinmattress]

That's a good article.

I've been saying for ages that unless your house is actually on the market you haven't lost a penny. Same as when it went up 10% in a year. You didn't gain a penny. It's only relevant if you're buying, selling or MEW'ing.

I'd be first to admit now is a bed time for selling. I have a property I'd like to sell but am well in the wood with it and can wait until things pick up. I live in a small village and have only seen 2 places for sale in the last year. One I'd say is easily 2007 priced and the other one sold for about 15% off peak.

It's simple. If you want to live where I do you have to pay. Nobody is selling cheap. One could read stuff on here and work out how much this or that house should be priced at but if it's not for sale you can't buy it. It's a waste of time talking about it now. You might get lucky and find a forced seller somewhere but that's it.

Hamish pointed out that unless the whole chain drops the price it's all irrelevant. f you want to upside and can't see your dream house at the same discount you would have to give on your own property then you won't sell.

I don't think people are in the dire straights you like to portray on here. The public seem to have plenty of meat on the bone and will wait it out.

There will not be a HPC.

A few places are cheaper now but worry about the ones with no For Sale outside. You can't buy them can you?

What about being in negative equity and being forced to pay mortgages at 10% plus?

Why do you and your ilk not take the cost of servicing debt into consideration when you make these bold statements?

[Harry Monk]

There will not be a HPC.

Property prices have already fallen by between 18 and 22%. Is that not already a crash?

You've been shown the Land Registry figures for Maidstone, showing that prices there have fallen in line with those figures and I don't know why you persist with this silly kiddology.

Anyway, what will happen to the Nationwide and Halifax figures this month, Sibs? Come on, say something which turns out to be hopelessly inaccurate, you can do it!

[juvenal]

I have a property I'd like to sell but am well in the wood with it and can wait until things pick up. I live in a small village There will not be a HPC.

A few places are cheaper now but worry about the ones with no For Sale outside. You can't buy them can you?

Does this mean you live in some sort of copse, or forest?

Or are you using 'wood' in the Boogie Nights sense?

You've rather lost me here....

[dances with sheeple]

That's a good article.

I've been saying for ages that unless your house is actually on the market you haven't lost a penny. Same as when it went up 10% in a year. You didn't gain a penny. It's only relevant if you're buying, selling or MEW'ing.

I'd be first to admit now is a bed time for selling. I have a property I'd like to sell but am well in the wood with it and can wait until things pick up. I live in a small village and have only seen 2 places for sale in the last year. One I'd say is easily 2007 priced and the other one sold for about 15% off peak.

It's simple. If you want to live where I do you have to pay. Nobody is selling cheap. One could read stuff on here and work out how much this or that house should be priced at but if it's not for sale you can't buy it. It's a waste of time talking about it now. You might get lucky and find a forced seller somewhere but that's it.

Hamish pointed out that unless the whole chain drops the price it's all irrelevant. f you want to upside and can't see your dream house at the same discount you would have to give on your own property then you won't sell.

I don't think people are in the dire straights you like to portray on here. The public seem to have plenty of meat on the bone and will wait it out.

There will not be a HPC.

A few places are cheaper now but worry about the ones with no For Sale outside. You can't buy them can you?

yes, like a red headed step-child (or troll) it is **** meets the wooden paddle time, selling time is over, it is loss making capitulation time.

[D Vardy's Shadow]

That's a good article.

I've been saying for ages that unless your house is actually on the market you haven't lost a penny. Same as when it went up 10% in a year. You didn't gain a penny. It's only relevant if you're buying, selling or MEW'ing.

I'd be first to admit now is a bed time for selling. I have a property I'd like to sell but am well in the wood with it and can wait until things pick up. I live in a small village and have only seen 2 places for sale in the last year. One I'd say is easily 2007 priced and the other one sold for about 15% off peak.

It's simple. If you want to live where I do you have to pay. Nobody is selling cheap. One could read stuff on here and work out how much this or that house should be priced at but if it's not for sale you can't buy it. It's a waste of time talking about it now. You might get lucky and find a forced seller somewhere but that's it.

Hamish pointed out that unless the whole chain drops the price it's all irrelevant. f you want to upside and can't see your dream house at the same discount you would have to give on your own property then you won't sell.

I don't think people are in the dire straights you like to portray on here. The public seem to have plenty of meat on the bone and will wait it out.

There will not be a HPC.

A few places are cheaper now but worry about the ones with no For Sale outside. You can't buy them can you?

Summary:

1. The housing market is largely intact

2. Houses which are not for sale are at the same or higher prices

3. Houses which are for sale are for sale at higher prices

4. Houses which actually do sell don't usually count, because the chain does not come together

5. Houses which do sell and complete don't count because they are distressed sales

In other words, stability in the market is underpinned by a slight upward trend of price movement in houses which are not for sale.

Can't argue with that.

[Hawk]

That's a good article.

I've been saying for ages that unless your house is actually on the market you haven't lost a penny. Same as when it went up 10% in a year. You didn't gain a penny. It's only relevant if you're buying, selling or MEW'ing.

I'd be first to admit now is a bed time for selling. I have a property I'd like to sell but am well in the wood with it and can wait until things pick up. I live in a small village and have only seen 2 places for sale in the last year. One I'd say is easily 2007 priced and the other one sold for about 15% off peak.

It's simple. If you want to live where I do you have to pay. Nobody is selling cheap. One could read stuff on here and work out how much this or that house should be priced at but if it's not for sale you can't buy it. It's a waste of time talking about it now. You might get lucky and find a forced seller somewhere but that's it.

Hamish pointed out that unless the whole chain drops the price it's all irrelevant. f you want to upside and can't see your dream house at the same discount you would have to give on your own property then you won't sell.

I don't think people are in the dire straights you like to portray on here. The public seem to have plenty of meat on the bone and will wait it out.

There will not be a HPC.

A few places are cheaper now but worry about the ones with no For Sale outside. You can't buy them can you?

Not to sure what your talking about?

Most of us don't live in areas where there is a lack of property on the market. Just about every street in a 20 mile radius of where I want to buy has a house up for sale or one so close that its not great loss that you would have to settle opting for that one.

How can you say there will be no HPC, we're in one now...

Every 2 weeks now a property comes on the market where I live, at lease 30% down from peak offering no-chain! the only reason I'm not taking these offers up is, this trickle will slowly turn in to a flood and I will get the pick of a bunch.

Who are you trying to convince, us? or yourself?

Edited May 24, 2009 by Hawk

[dolce vita]

.........................

Hamish pointed out that unless the whole chain drops the price it's all irrelevant. ...................

Oh that's ok it must be right then

You really couldn't have picked a stupider kunt to back up your views.

[Modigliani1]

I've been saying for ages that unless your house is actually on the market you haven't lost a penny. Same as when it went up 10% in a year. You didn't gain a penny. It's only relevant if you're buying, selling or MEW'ing.

Hey so property is the same as cash! Doesn't matter if there's rampant inflation or horrible deflation. It only becomes relevant if you are actually buying or selling!

Brb, letting my financial advisor know that even though my shares lost 70% of their value over the last two years, it's totally irrelevant as I don't intend to buy or sell!

Ah! And please don't forget to let banks know that the crisis is over! All they need to do is not to put their repossessed properties on the market.

Because, after all, unless your house is on the market, you haven't lost a penny.

[Hip to be bear]

That's a good article.

I've been saying for ages that unless your house is actually on the market you haven't lost a penny. Same as when it went up 10% in a year. You didn't gain a penny. It's only relevant if you're buying, selling or MEW'ing.

I'd be first to admit now is a bed time for selling. I have a property I'd like to sell but am well in the wood with it and can wait until things pick up. I live in a small village and have only seen 2 places for sale in the last year. One I'd say is easily 2007 priced and the other one sold for about 15% off peak.

It's simple. If you want to live where I do you have to pay. Nobody is selling cheap. One could read stuff on here and work out how much this or that house should be priced at but if it's not for sale you can't buy it. It's a waste of time talking about it now. You might get lucky and find a forced seller somewhere but that's it.

Hamish pointed out that unless the whole chain drops the price it's all irrelevant. f you want to upside and can't see your dream house at the same discount you would have to give on your own property then you won't sell.

I don't think people are in the dire straights you like to portray on here. The public seem to have plenty of meat on the bone and will wait it out.

There will not be a HPC.

A few places are cheaper now but worry about the ones with no For Sale outside. You can't buy them can you?

So let us get this straight.....One sold for 15% off and the other is still for sale at 2007 price, but has not sold!

Sibbers, this is for you:

Edited;for technical incompetence!!!

Edited May 24, 2009 by Hip to be bear

[Guest absolutezero]

There will not be a HPC.

Despite we're in the middle of one now and prices have dropped by about 20%, that tells me everything I need to know... I can safely ignore everything you say from now on.

[Darkman]

There will not be a HPC.

A few places are cheaper now but worry about the ones with no For Sale outside. You can't buy them can you?

I think you do make a good point here. For perhaps the majority, lower values will mean little or nothing. Only the minority desperate to sell or forced to sell will be hit. The home owners who sit it out for minimum 5 years may be unscathed. And in effect the opportunities for bargain hunters will be limited.

However, to deny the crash is just silly. Obviously sale values are sliding, and will probably continue sliding. It's certainly a crash, and the longer it goes on the more people will be affected.

There will be no "recovery in two years". This slide will go on maybe 8 - 10 years I'm guessing. Looking at it historically and seeing the current financial mess, that's a fair estimate. Though a more accurate description might be a correction rather than crash. Prices should never have risen to those levels in the first place.

If I planned to buy in two years time, and I might, it's not because I think values will increase after that point. I simply want a home of my own, and I'll just have to grin and bear it as values continue to drop (more gradually) over the following 5-6 years. That's life.

Having said all that, there is a real danger for current home owners. What if prices never reach these dizzy heights again within 50 years? What if we actually learn from these mistakes and make sure housing stays affordable in future? If that happens, a lot of people are going to get burned. The only consolation for them is that we're probably far too selfish to let it happen. The idea of housing being affordable and fairly controlled in this country is a ridiculous one. This is England, we don't do things like that here.

[Leonard Hatred]

I find it heartening that the only crash deniers left are escaped mental patients.

[PropertyGuru]

I've been saying for ages that unless your house is actually on the market you haven't lost a penny.

yes you have, and you're wrong, as anyone with more than the estate agent regulation handful of neurons would know. It depends on rather more than that. Including (for example) how much you bought it for, and how much your mortgage is. There's an actual real honest to goodness not imaginary in your face PHYSICAL cash amount you lose each month by paying too much, whether you sell or not. I know you probably don't have the necessary mental equipment to understand the concept of 'opportunity cost', but give it a shot, MENSA boy, give it a shot.

It's simple. If you want to live where I do you have to pay.

I'd imagine most people, reading your pathetic troll posts would pay rather a lot NOT to live anywhere near a nylon suit wearing spotty little oik like yourself.

There will not be a HPC.

what do you mean? There won't be one AFTER THE CURRENT ONE finishes? Or are you just retarded?

Edited May 24, 2009 by PropertyGuru

[Prof]

yes you have, and you're wrong, as anyone with more than the estate agent regulation handful of neurons would know. It depends on rather more than that. Including (for example) how much you bought it for, and how much your mortgage is. There's an actual real honest to goodness not imaginary in your face PHYSICAL cash amount you lose each month by paying too much, whether you sell or not. I know you probably don't have the necessary mental equipment to understand the concept of 'opportunity cost', but give it a shot, MENSA boy, give it a shot.

I'd imagine most people, reading your pathetic troll posts would pay rather a lot NOT to live anywhere near a nylon suit wearing spotty little oik like yourself.

what do you mean? There won't be one AFTER THE CURRENT ONE finishes? Or are you just retarded?

And that, my friends, is why he`s called "PropertyGuru".

I make that a knockout in the first round.

[Darkman]

I think what Sibley may have been grasping for, was that any home owner without a mortgage who stays put for ten years will be unaffected.

[mbga9pgf]

If there was a HPC you would have the house you dream of and wouldn't need to be on here.

The truth is only a small percentage of property has actually dropped price. The rest is in hands of people who can afford to wait until prices rise before they sell.

Once mortgages become easier to obtain you will see HPI at it's best. Only an idiot would sell cheap at the moment and have the pleasure of watching somebody else reap the benefits at a later date.

I think posters on here should be means tested before they comment on anything. I doubt many are credit worthy of a mortgage and could only afford a house if they dropped enough so a Provident loan could cover the asking price.

Getting boring just watching people on here copy and paste cherry picked bad news articles and boost each other up.

Deal in reality sometimes. It's more interesting.

Here's one for you sibley. What happens when house prices dont bounce back like you are predicting? Whjat do all those sellers who need to get on with their lives, move due to jobs etc do then?

[D Vardy's Shadow]

...

I think posters on here should be means tested before they comment on anything. I doubt many are credit worthy of a mortgage and could only afford a house if they dropped enough so a Provident loan could cover the asking price.

That is only for the Trolls group, but they are allowed to self cert on the income from their bridge.

[simpleton]

If there was a HPC you would have the house you dream of and wouldn't need to be on here.

The truth is only a small percentage of property has actually dropped price. The rest is in hands of people who can afford to wait until prices rise before they sell.

Once mortgages become easier to obtain you will see HPI at it's best. Only an idiot would sell cheap at the moment and have the pleasure of watching somebody else reap the benefits at a later date.

I think posters on here should be means tested before they comment on anything. I doubt many are credit worthy of a mortgage and could only afford a house if they dropped enough so a Provident loan could cover the asking price.

Getting boring just watching people on here copy and paste cherry picked bad news articles and boost each other up.

Deal in reality sometimes. It's more interesting.

You're absolutely correct Sibbers me old son. That's why there's never been a property crash in the UK (except when there has), and why there isn't one now.

All those boring statistics from Nationwide, Halifax, Land Registry et al?

They just make them up. For a larf.

You really are a terrible kunt.

[Prof]

Deal in reality sometimes. It's more interesting.

True, you want to try it sometime.

[Bloo Loo]

to the trolls with houses:

Can you MEW more this year than you could last year...?

[geoffk]

If there was a HPC you would have the house you dream of and wouldn't need to be on here.

The truth is only a small percentage of property has actually dropped price. The rest is in hands of people who can afford to wait until prices rise before they sell.

Once mortgages become easier to obtain you will see HPI at it's best. Only an idiot would sell cheap at the moment and have the pleasure of watching somebody else reap the benefits at a later date.

I think posters on here should be means tested before they comment on anything. I doubt many are credit worthy of a mortgage and could only afford a house if they dropped enough so a Provident loan could cover the asking price.

Getting boring just watching people on here copy and paste cherry picked bad news articles and boost each other up.

Deal in reality sometimes. It's more interesting.

http://www.propertysnake.co.uk/

£39,500 (DOWN 56%) 1 bedroom flat

£50,000 (DOWN 50%) 1 bedroom detached

£46,375 (DOWN 46%) 2 bedroom house

£58,000 (DOWN 44%) 3 bedroom semi detached

£25,000 (DOWN 44%) 3 bedroom house

£275,000 (DOWN 44%) 3 bedroom house

HERE ARE CRASH PRICES.....This is the fastest housing crash in history...It must be painful to read the above drops when you have a vested interest in the market... and i do believe you are a estate agent..

[gotout2006]

The number of homes sold by estate agents, meanwhile, reached an 18-month high last month, says the National Association of Estate Agents. The average agent agreed 10 sales during April, up from eight in March and a low of just five last August.

This was in the times this morning. I posted a Question on there forum which they never ever print.

I asked how many estate agent's are there and if they all sold 10 how many house's would have sold in April.

[1929crash]

There will not be a HPC.

Technically you are correct because you are speaking in the future tense. We have a HPC.