Protectionism

[R K]

(Reuters) - U.S. and Philippine officials are expected to agree on an increase in the number of U.S. military ships, aircraft and troops rotating through the Philippines, Filipino officials said, as tensions simmer with China over its maritime claims.

Though he made no direct reference to the territorial disputes, new Chinese Communist Party chief Xi Jinping urged his military to prepare for a struggle. He made the comments during his visit to a South China Sea fleet ship in southern Guangdong province, but did not name any potential aggressor.

Senior U.S. and Philippine officials met on Wednesday in Manila to discuss strengthening security and economic ties at a time of growing tension over China's aggressive sovereignty claims over vast stretches of the disputed South China Sea.

Philippine defense and diplomatic officials said they expected to see more U.S. ships, aircraft and troops for training exercises and disaster and relief operations.

"What we are discussing right now is increasing the rotational presence of U.S. forces," Carlos Sorreta, the foreign ministry's Assistant Secretary for American Affairs, told reporters. A five-year joint U.S.-Philippine military exercise plan would be approved this week, he added.

The size of the increase in the U.S. military assets in the Philippines, a former U.S. colony, was unclear.

But it comes as the Philippines, Australia and other parts of the region have seen a resurgence of U.S. warships, planes and personnel under Washington's so-called "pivot" in foreign, economic and security policy towards Asia announced last year.

Wary of Washington's intentions, China is building up its own military. Its claims over most of the South China Sea have set it directly against U.S. allies Vietnam and the Philippines, while Brunei, Taiwan and Malaysia also claim parts of the mineral-rich waters.

Xi, who assumed the role of military chief about a month ago, called on the 2.3-million-strong People's Liberation Army to "push forward preparations for a military struggle", state news agency Xinhua said.

Xi, speaking during a three-day inspection of the PLA's Guangzhou base starting last Saturday, did not say against whom the struggle might be fought.

His remarks echo those he made a week ago and are a common refrain by Chinese leaders. Xi replaced President Hu Jintao as chairman of the Central Military Commission on November 15.

Xi also said the army should "modernize" for combat readiness, but gave no specific details.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/12/us-philippines-usa-idUSBRE8BB0LL20121212

[R K]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/18/us-syria-crisis-idUSBRE8AJ1FK20121218

(Reuters) - Russia sent warships to the Mediterranean to prepare a potential evacuation of its citizens from Syria, a Russian news agency said on Tuesday, a sign President Bashar al-Assad's key ally is worried about rebel advances that now threaten even the capital.

Moscow acted a day after insurgents waging a 21-month-old uprising obtained a possible springboard for a thrust into Damascus by seizing the Yarmouk Palestinian camp just 2 miles from the heart of the city, activists said.

The anti-Assad opposition has posted significant military and diplomatic gains in recent weeks, capturing a series of army installations across Syria and securing formal recognition from Western and Arab states for its new coalition.

Assad's pivotal allies have largely stood behind him. But Russia, his main arms supplier, appeared to waver this week with contradictory statements repeating opposition to Assad stepping down and airing concerns about a possible rebel victory.

Russia's Interfax news agency quoted unnamed naval sources on Tuesday as saying that two assault ships, a tanker and an escort vessel had left a Baltic port for the Mediterranean Sea, where Russia has a port in Syria's coastal city of Tartus.

"They are heading to the Syrian coast to assist in a possible evacuation of Russian citizens ... Preparations for the deployment were carried out in a hurry and were heavily classified," the Russian agency quoted the source as saying.

It was not possible to independently verify the report, which came a day after Russia confirmed that two citizens working in Syria were kidnapped along with an Italian citizen.

[ParticleMan]

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/12/10/uk-britain-boe-king-idUKBRE8B90X120121210

BoE's King warns of growing currency competition

By Jonathan Spicer and Edward Krudy

NEW YORK | Mon Dec 10, 2012 10:41pm GMT

(Reuters) -The head of the Bank of England warned on Monday that too many countries were trying to weaken their currencies to offset the impact of the slow global economy and the trend could grow next year.

"You can see, month by month, the addition to the number of countries who feel that active exchange rate management, always to push their exchange rate down, is growing," Mervyn King said in a speech.

"My concern is that in 2013, what we will see is the growth of actively managed exchange rates as an alternative to the use of domestic monetary policy," he told the Economic Club of New York. King did not identify any countries.

He also criticized what he said was backtracking by the Group of 20 leading economies to fix the imbalance between countries with trade surpluses and those with deficits, despite vows by the group to make rebalancing the world economy a priority after the financial crisis erupted.

Central banks, including the BoE, have kept interest rates very low and used unprecedented policies such as massive asset purchases to try to stir growth.

Pumping so much money into developed economies, however, can put upward pressure on currencies of emerging economies, hurting those countries' exports.

Brazil and China, as well as more economically developed Japan and Switzerland, have taken steps to push down the value of their respective currencies in recent years.

The Bank has so far bought 375 billion pounds mostly in government bonds to help lift the British economy out of the doldrums.

Countries with trade surpluses are often reluctant to boost domestic spending that would allow deficit countries to rebalance by exporting more.

"This is a problem which has to be tackled," King said, citing a divide between some surplus and deficit countries within the euro zone.

CURRENCY WARS

The warnings by King, who is set to step down in July, echo those made in October by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, who delivered a blunt call for certain emerging economies to allow their currencies to rise.

The back and forth of monetary stimulus and foreign-exchange intervention has complicated any coordinated efforts to recover from the Great Recession.

"It is fair to say a recovery of a durable kind is proving elusive," King said in his speech.

Fielding questions later, he said he had "great confidence" that the United States will avoid the worst-case effects of the so-called fiscal cliff of automatic tax hikes and spending cuts due to come into force in January.

It "will find a way, if not avoiding going over the cliff, then hanging on by the finger tips" on the other side, he said.

Some political analysts predict the Republicans and Democrats will fail to agree on raising taxes and cutting spending before January 1 but might do so soon afterwards.

THE GOVERNOR'S WIFE

Britain recorded economic growth of 1.0 percent in the third quarter, marking an end to nine months of recession - its second since the 2008-09 financial crisis. But most of the rebound was driven by a technical bounce due to the London Olympics and extra public holidays in the preceding quarter.

The euro zone debt crisis, high inflation and fiscal austerity have weighed heavily on the economic recovery.

The address may be one of King's last in the United States. Mark Carney, currently the head of Canada's central bank, is set to be the first non-Briton to lead the Bank next summer.

King recalled the day his wife saw the surprising news that Carney was named to the post.

"She said, 'You know Mervyn, they'll miss you, or six months down the road they'll miss you,'" King told the audience.

"And then she looked at the TV screen and said: 'He's very young, he's very good looking, he's immensely charming and he's very charismatic.' I think he'll do a great job and they won't miss me at all."

[ParticleMan]

Milk it for what it's worth*.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-13/bright-dairy-unit-synlait-milk-preparing-for-ipo-in-new-zealand.html

Bright Dairy & Food Co. (600597), a Shanghai-based dairy company, said its New Zealand unit Synlait Milk Ltd. is in the process of planning an initial public offering in New Zealand.

Bright Dairy said in July 2010 it would pay NZ$82 million ($68 million) for a 51 percent stake in Christchurch-based milk processor Synlait. Bright Dairy didn’t specify in yesterday’s statement to the Shanghai Stock Exchange the amount Synlait was looking to raise in the IPO.

Chinese dairy companies including China Mengniu Dairy Co. (2319) have been seeking acquisitions to improve the quality of their supply chain amid safety concerns. Food-safety scandals in China ranging from toxic melamine in milk powder to kitchen waste reprocessed into cooking oil and rat meat being sold as mutton has driven consumers to buy products overseas.

Bright Dairy fell as much as 3.4 percent to 14.35 yuan in Shanghai trading today, headed for the lowest level since May 2. The stock has gained 47 percent this year, against a 1.9 percent decline in the benchmark Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index.

Synlait, which started operations in 2000 and processes more than 500 million liters of milk each year, posted a $6.3 million profit after tax for the year ending 31 July 2012, the company said on its website.

The New Zealand milk processor had the intention of listing within three to five years of the completion of the deal, according to yesterday’s stock exchange statement, citing a company announcement from July 2010.

Mengniu, the country’s largest dairy producer, said on May 8 that it had agreed to buy 26.9 percent of milk supplier China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. (1117) for HK$3.18 billion ($410 million) to gain greater control of milk supplies amid food safety concerns in the country.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-05/china-probes-tetra-pak-for-abuse-of-market-control-xinhua-says.html

China is widening its investigations into the food and dairy industry as it probes Switzerland-based food processing and packaging company Tetra Pak Group for possible abuse of market dominance.

The State Administration for Industry & Commerce has organized more than 20 of its regional agencies to investigate the allegations, Zhang Mao, head of the market watchdog, said at a forum today. It’s also investigating 23 cases of possible monopoly violations, according to the transcript of his speech on the regulator’s website.

The investigation into Tetra Pak is the latest sign of increased scrutiny into the operations of overseas companies in the world’s second-largest economy. Nestle SA (NESN) and Danone’s (BN) infant-nutrition units are cutting some prices after the People’s Daily reported July 2 that the government started probing possible price-fixing by global producers of infant formula. Drugmakers including GlaxoSmithKline Plc (GSK) are being probed separately.

Tetra Pak was asked by the Chinese authorities to provide information about its business in China a few weeks ago, said spokesman Christopher Huntley. “We have no information about a formal investigation.” The information requested was “very broad” and the company is cooperating, he said, declining to disclose further details.

Tetra Pak, which entered the Chinese market in 1972, processes food including dairy and milk products as well as ice cream, according to its website. It has a research and development center in Shanghai and factories in cities including Beijing, Foshan, Kunshan and Hohhot.

Company Apologies

Telephone calls to the watchdog’s press office in Beijing weren’t answered.

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, who took office in March, has pledged to root out consumer abuses. Apple Inc. and Yum! Brands Inc. (YUM) are among foreign companies that have had to apologize this year to consumers in China after authorities began investigating their operations.

“You always got to contend with the fact that anything in China is always political,” said Matthew Crabbe, Asia director of research at industry analyst Mintel Group Ltd. Foreign companies “have to play the political game” and protect their brand image as China is a “very important market for companies. They are going to do what they have to for market share in China.”

Pricing Probe

China’s National Development and Reform Commission, the top planning agency, started an investigation into the pricing of infant formula sold by Nestle’s Wyeth and other foreign companies including Mead Johnson Nutrition Co. (MJN), Abbott Laboratories (ABT) and Dutch producer Royal FrieslandCampina NV, the official People’s Daily said this week.

Domestic company Biostime International Holdings Ltd. (1112) is also being investigated, it said. The NDRC has evidence to show their pricing increased about 30 percent since 2008, the same year milk powder contaminated with the chemical melamine killed at least six infants, fanning distrust among Chinese consumers of local milk and driving them toward foreign brands.

Scandals including contaminated milk powder and rat meat sold as mutton have fueled demands for the government to crack down on safety violations.

Fonterra Cooperative Group Ltd., the world’s largest dairy exporter, was contacted on a “broad ranging investigation of consumer dairy products in China,” and it’s cooperating with the authorities, the Auckland-based company has said.

Price Cuts

A day after the People’s Daily report, Wyeth, owned by Vevey, Switzerland-based Nestle, said it would lower the prices of some baby-formula products by as much as 20 percent. It also canceled a plan to increase the prices of its S-26 range of milk powder and said the price reductions will save consumers an estimated 450 million yuan ($73 million) in the next 12 months.

Danone said its Dumex unit is also preparing a price cut and will disclose details later.

Today, FrieslandCampina said it will cut prices of its Frisco dairy products in China by 5 percent as of July 8. The Amersfoort, Netherlands-based company is “fully cooperating” with the NDRC, it said on its website.

Biostime rose 4.7 percent in Hong Kong trading today, paring its decline since June 27, when it said it was under investigation for price fixing, to about 31 percent.

The commission is also examining the costs and prices of drugmakers including GlaxoSmithKline, Merck & Co., Novartis AG and Baxter International Inc. (BAX) to improve the pricing system for medicines, it said on July 2.

https://www.nzx.com/companies/SML/announcements/239031

Minor Fire at Synlait Milk Dunsandel Plant

8:30am, 29 Jul 2013 | GENERAL

As reported in the media, Canterbury milk nutrition company Synlait Milk had a minor fire in one of its boilers at its Dunsandel plant on the evening of Sunday 28 July 2013.

All automated systems functioned properly and the fire brigade were alerted directly when the smoke sensor was activated in the boiler facility. Several fire appliances were at the scene on standby.

No damage was suffered and the boiler is fully operational. No impact on operations or plant activity is expected.

There were no injuries during the event.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/dairy/8976680/Synlait-plant-undamaged-after-fire

Synlait Milk says a fire in one of its boilers at its Dunsandel plant will not affect production.

The Canterbury milk nutrition products producer said it had a minor fire in one of its boilers at the plant south of Christchurch yesterday evening.

The manufacturer today said all automated systems functioned properly and the fire brigade were alerted directly when the smoke sensor was activated in the boiler facility. Several fire appliances were at the scene on standby during the incident.

The company, which has recently raised capital, said no damage was suffered and the boiler was now fully operational.

No impact on operations or plant activity was expected, it added.

There were no injuries during the event.

Synlait Milk has announced plans to invest $180 million to upgrade the Dunsandel milk plant and build a packaging plant and new warehouse.

It plans to produce a specialist ingredient for infant formula, which is in high demand in China.

The investment would enable Synlait Milk to become one of only two manufacturers in the world to produce lactoferrin as a spray-dried powder to be added to products including infant formula and nutritional powders.

Synlait Milk has a variety of owners including Chinese company Bright Dairy which has invested more than $220m in Dunsandel over six years.

The plant upgrade plans include the introduction of a higher hygiene standard to allow Synlait to manufacture dairy ingredients to a pharmaceutical standard.

Other investors in Synlait include Japanese trading giant Mitsui & Co, Dutch dairy firm FrieslandCampina Investments and Synlait managing director and co-founder John Penno.

Another 2296 new shareholders were added during a recent initial public offer of shares, including institutions in New Zealand, Australia, Singapore and Hong Kong, employees and suppliers of Synlait Milk and New Zealand retail investors.

Synlait Milk shares this morning were trading 1 cent weaker at $2.76.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-04/china-halts-fonterra-milk-powder-imports-in-blow-to-new-zealand.html

New Zealand said China suspended imports of milk powders from Fonterra Cooperative Group Ltd., the world’s largest dairy exporter, after the company warned of a contaminated ingredient used in products from baby formula to sports drinks.

“We understand that China has suspended imports of all whey protein and milk-based powder sourced from Fonterra, whether exported from New Zealand or Australia,” the Ministry for Primary Industries said in an e-mailed statement in Wellington yesterday. Fonterra said on Aug. 3 three batches of a whey protein made at a New Zealand plant last year may contain bacteria that can cause a rare illness called botulism.

The restrictions are a blow for New Zealand, which relies on exports to China, its biggest trading partner, for growth. Dairy products make up about a quarter of the South Pacific nation’s total overseas sales, which in turn account for about a third of economic output. Fonterra collects 89 percent of the milk produced in New Zealand.

“This could be quite a big deal for New Zealand’s prospects, certainly in the near term,” said Paul Bloxham, chief Australia and New Zealand economist at HSBC Holdings Plc in Sydney. “This is likely to have an influence in the short run on the New Zealand dollar and on markets in New Zealand on Monday.”

Coca-Cola Co. (KO) in China said it has quarantined some whey protein it received from the New Zealand company. Chinese regulators said companies including Hangzhou Wahaha Group were among importers of the potentially tainted ingredient. Russia has also suspended imports of Fonterra products, the country’s consumer rights watchdog said on its website.

Fonterra Director of Communications Kerry Underhill said the company hasn’t had confirmation of reports that Russia has banned all Fonterra products.

Different Countries

The whey protein batches were mixed with other ingredients to form products sold in markets including China, Australia, Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam and Saudi Arabia, the New Zealand ministry said.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention describes botulism as a serious paralytic illness.

Four companies including units of Wahaha and Danone’s Dumex brand imported possibly tainted products from Fonterra, China’s quality supervision regulator said in a statement. The products have been recalled, the regulator said. Danone and Wahaha couldn’t be reached outside of regular office hours.

Coca Cola

Coca-Cola Greater China said in a statement that 25 kilograms of Fonterra’s whey protein were used in the production of isolated batches of the company’s Minute Maid Pulpy Milky product. The company said it will recall products from these batches in China.

External and internal experts confirmed its products are safe due to an ultra-high temperature manufacturing process and low acidity, which sanitizes the final product, Coca Cola said.

A further 4,775 kilograms of the whey protein have been quarantined, it said.

Trade Minister Tim Groser said New Zealand should expect “a wide ban.”

“The entire world knows about this,” he told reporters. “Different countries are taking different positions, and it’s absolutely appropriate that they should.”

In an earlier television interview, Grosner said China had stopped all imports of New Zealand milk powders.

In New Zealand, five batches of Nutricia Karicare follow-on formula products for children from 6 months old were identified as potentially containing contaminated protein. Nutricia recalled two baby formula products in New Zealand.

‘Reputational Risk’

“It’s not good,” said Stephen Toplis, head of research at Bank of New Zealand in Wellington. “It’s reputational risk more than anything, and that will be determined by what happens over the coming weeks in terms of how the company responds.”

Fonterra said Chief Executive Officer Theo Spierings, who is visiting China for scheduled meetings, will speak with customers there and the company will hold a press conference in Beijing today. There have been no reports of any illness linked to consumption of the affected products, Fonterra said.

“Fonterra would be the first to say that they have been on the back foot on this issue,” New Zealand Minister for Economic Development Steven Joyce told reporters. “They would also tell you that some of the information that they initially relied on has changed.”

China Impact

“Fonterra is doing everything possible to protect human health and our focus is on public safety,” Gary Romano, managing director of New Zealand Milk Products at Fonterra, said at a press conference in Auckland. Any financial impact would be something to assess later, he said.

Fonterra, which said none of its own branded consumer products are affected by the quality issue, drew about 14 percent of its revenue from China in the six months ended Jan. 31, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Fonterra in January had to assure China that traces of an agricultural chemical found in some milk posed no health risks. In 2008, locally made melamine-contaminated milk powder caused an industrywide scandal in China, prompting the collapse of Fonterra’s partner Sanlu Group.

China is stepping up scrutiny of local and international food companies. This year it disclosed a probe into pricing of baby formula, prompting companies from Danone to Nestle SA (NESN) to cut prices. Fonterra in July said it would cut prices in China for Anmum supplements for pregnant women.

(* on the NZX tomorrow, the Red and the Blue are both listed...)

Edited August 4, 2013 by ParticleMan

[Fully Detached]

Bump!

Kiwi Plunges

[Eddie_George]

South Korean concern as US overturns Apple iPhone ban

The South Korean government has said it is concerned about the US's move to overrule a sales ban of some older Apple and iPad models. In June, the US International Trade Commission (ITC) ruled that Apple infringed a patent of rival Samsung. President Barack Obama's trade representative then vetoed the decision because of its "effect on competitive conditions in the US economy". South Korea said the move would affect the protection of patent rights.

It was the first time since 1987 that a presidential administration had vetoed an ITC import ban. The ban was set to take effect on 5 August. The South Korean media denounced the US move as being "protectionism".

And the South Korean trade ministry said in a statement: "We express concerns about the negative impact that such a decision would have on the protection of patent rights." It also called on the ITC and the Obama administration to make "fair and reasonable decisions".

Samsung now faces a decision on Friday to decide whether some of its phones and tablets infringed on Apple's patents and should be banned from imports into the US.

Apple and Samsung, the top two global smartphone makers, have been locked in a global patent war since 2011. The now-overturned patent related to 3G wireless technology and the ability to transmit multiple services correctly and at the same time. The ITC ordered a halt on all imports and sales on AT&T-sold models of the iPhone 4, iPhone 3, iPhone 3GS as well as the iPad 3G and iPad 2 3G. Some of those devices are no longer on sale in the US.

[ParticleMan]

No use crying over spilt lactoferrin, I always say.

[ParticleMan]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-13/chinese-military-ship-confronts-u-s-cruiser-at-sea.html

A U.S. Navy guided-missile cruiser had a confrontation with a Chinese military ship on Dec. 5 in the South China Sea, underscoring rising tensions in the region over China’s newly declared air defense zone.

The USS Cowpens, operating in international waters, and a Chinese naval vessel “had an encounter that required maneuvering to avoid a collision,” the U.S. Pacific Fleet said yesterday in a statement.

“This incident underscores the need to ensure the highest standards of professional seamanship, including communications between vessels, to mitigate the risk of an unintended incident or mishap,” according to the Navy statement.

China was probably angry that the Cowpens may have been trying to spy on China’s only aircraft carrier, which was operating in the area, said Dean Cheng, an analyst at the Heritage Foundation’s Asian Studies Center in Washington.

“This was not an accident,” Cheng said in an interview. “It was deliberate. The Chinese are raising the ante.”

The U.S. government lodged protests over the incident with Chinese officials in Beijing and Washington, according to a State Department official who asked not to be named discussing the content of diplomatic communications.

The Chinese embassy in Washington didn’t respond to an e-mailed request for comment. Calls today outside of normal office hours to the spokesmen’s offices of China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ministry of Defense weren’t answered and there were no statements regarding the incident on their websites.

Reduce Risk

Ultimately, officers on the Chinese and U.S. vessels communicated and both warships maneuvered to ensure safe passage, according to a U.S. defense official who asked not to be identified discussing the incident. The official said the outcome underscored the need for continuing military-to-military communications with China to reduce the risk of mishaps.

While the near-collision was resolved peacefully, Cheng said it hints at the growing risk of confrontation as China seeks ways to assert its sovereignty in the region.

China last month unnerved its neighbors by declaring an air defense identification zone in the East China Sea that overlaps with Japan’s zone and includes uninhabited islands claimed by both nations.

“I think we’re going to see much more tension in the air and on the surface,” Cheng said. “In the South China Sea, we’ve been seeing a steady ratcheting up of pressure.”

Monitoring, Interfering

A report of the confrontation was carried today on huanqiu.com, the website of the Global Times, a newspaper under the People’s Daily, the Communist Party mouthpiece, citing reports from foreign media. The paper said the U.S. Navy was using the excuse of freedom of navigation on the high seas to carry out surveillance in waters near China, when in reality it was monitoring and interfering in the country’s normal naval activites.

The Global Times identified the Chinese aircraft carrier as the Liaoning. The ship was commissioned last year, and left its home port of Qingdao in eastern China on Nov. 26 for training in the South China Sea escorted by two missile destroyers and two missile frigates, the official Xinhua News Agency reported that day.

The Chinese vessel tried to force the Cowpens to stop, causing a military standoff, according to the Washington Free Beacon, a news website, which earlier reported the incident. The Cowpens continued on its course because it was operating in international waters.

’Getting Dangerous’

After a second Chinese ship sailed in front of the Cowpens and stopped, the U.S. vessel was forced to change course to avoid a collision, the Free Beacon said.

“It’s getting dangerous out there,” said Patrick Cronin, a senior adviser for the Asia-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security in Washington. “Accidents happen. People can get killed out there through these maneuvers. We need more efforts at ways to tamp down or avert crises as they arise.”

Cronin said the incident appeared to be a “tit-for-tat” response to the U.S. refusing to recognize China’s new air defense zone.

“We’re making them look impotent with respect to the ADIZ,” Cronin said, referring to the acronym for air defense identification zone.

By trying to block a U.S. ship, China is engaging in “coercive diplomacy -- it’s neither war nor peace,” he said.

[Gigantic Purple Slug]

The double worry now being of course that the Chinese economy appears to be close to blowing up.

[R K]

There should be no surprises about what the Russians have done.

They have consistently made clear their support for President Assad. It was hardly a great secret that they had moved military assets into Syria - and the Russian pilots hadn't flown their fighter aircraft over to the Eastern Mediterranean to earn some extra air miles.

President Vladimir Putin had a meeting with President Barack Obama on Monday night to explain what Russia's plan was - and although there were profound differences, US officials said they understood better what Russia's intentions were.

And yet.

Isn't there something totally jaw-dropping, gob-smacking, eyebrow-arching, ear twitchingly extraordinary - and not to mention, casual - about the way the Americans learnt about Russian plans?

It began with a phone call from a Russian diplomat to his counterpart in Baghdad to say "we've got something interesting to tell you".

Then a three-star Russian general leaves the Russian embassy compound and knocks on the door of the American one, and asks to see the US military attache.

He tells the American military man that bombing starts in an hour, so you'd better get out of Syrian airspace now and move any assets you have off the ground. And 60 minutes later, the bombing started.

Wow. To say the Americans were blindsided by this unorthodox line of communication is to put it mildly. Having had their "clear the air" meeting on Monday night there was an anticipation that though there might be big policy differences, there would be a degree of co-ordination and openness.

Just consider this - the risks of a US fighter plane running into a Russian one with unimaginable consequences has just ratcheted up. Are they going to take it on turns to bomb targets? One day it's the Americans and their allies, the next day it's the Russians. You don't need to be a military historian to know that that is not going to fly (so to speak).

And that is before we get to the strategic objectivesl......more........

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-34405983

[Little Frank]

An ambitious Asia-Pacific trade pact linking the United States and 11 countries lay in tatters on Tuesday after U.S. President-elect Donald Trump said he would kill the deal on his first day in office on Jan. 20.

Trump's statement appeared to open the way for China to assume the United States' leadership mantle on trade and diplomacy in Asia. The Republican termed the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) "a potential disaster for our country."

China, Japan and South Korea are already in the initial stages of discussing a trilateral trade deal, and Beijing has been pushing its own limited Asian regional trade pact that excludes Washington for the past five years.

Japan and Australia, Washington's closest allies in Asia, pledged after Trump's announcement to push ahead without the United States, although removing the largest market for goods and services would shrink it dramatically.

"Pushing them forward is the idea that, if they don't act, it will look like China's very weak trade deals are the only game in town," said Derek Scissors, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, where he focuses on Asian economies and trade.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-tpp-idUSKBN13H0OT

Trump has pledged to redraw trade deals to win back American jobs, and has threatened Mexico and China with punitive tariffs in a move that some economists have warned could spark a trade war that threatens to roll back decades of liberalization.

Ending the TPP was a key election pledge of Trump's and was also the policy of his Democratic opponent, Hillary Clinton. The deal died in Congress after Trump's Nov. 8 election victory.

The Trans Pacific Partnership, a signature diplomatic initiative of Democratic President Barack Obama, was intended to lower tariff barriers in countries that accounted for 40 percent of the world economy, as well as providing a bulwark against China.

A major trade deal between the United States and Europe is also now close to collapse after Britain's plans to withdraw from the European Union prompted Washington to demand better terms and opposition in France and Germany has also all but scuppered it.

[BearlyBegun]

 

Ahhh this is the old (2009) thread I couldnt find the other day!

ParticleMan: Protectionism, then war