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Increased Sales On Lower Prices

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Mortgage bloke on Working Lunch just confirmed that increased sales are down to vendors accepting much lower prices.

Increased sales at lower prices.

The End is Nigh 1 - 0 Bullshitters

Edited by the end is nigh

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Mortgage bloke on Working Lunch just confirmed that increased sales are down to vendors accepting much lower prices.

Increased sales at lower prices.

The End is Nigh 1 - 0 Bullshitters

thanks for confirming my suspicions.

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Mortgage bloke on Working Lunch just confirmed that increased sales are down to vendors accepting much lower prices.

Increased sales at lower prices.

The End is Nigh 1 - 0 Bullshitters

Bearfacts vs Bullshit

I'm sure there's a good reason the language has evolved this way!

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Mortgage bloke on Working Lunch just confirmed that increased sales are down to vendors accepting much lower prices.

Increased sales at lower prices.

The End is Nigh 1 - 0 Bullshitters

OK if I have got this completely wrong and I am going to look so stupid but nothing new there, but could this explain why gross mortgage lending was down 9% for April, people needed to borrow less because sellers are being forced to accept 30% + less? Is there any way to work out what kind of figure we would be looking at for price falls now that mortgage lending is down at least 2/3rds? Its not that straightforward is it because of remortages etc ?

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Bearfacts vs Bullshit

I'm sure there's a good reason the language has evolved this way!

Considering the news the facts and the figures that continue to come out, why does anyone think we are at the bottom of this global crash? Why does anyone even in Maidstone think pulling up details of a single house proves the market is on the up? Can some people not take in the enormity of the situation we face GLOBALY. We have now entered the era of mass unemployment, it's now reality sinks in as it bites hard, job loses are ensuring there is no security for so many people. There has been a small spring bounce of not very impressive numbers from what was dire numbers. We soon will enter what has become the slower 6 months of the year. Let's see how this period works out. My money is on 2009 dropping at least 12%.

Edited by Tim Miller

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I think prices will go down another 20% at least.Just look at the house price graph on this site ..the height of the bubble is astounding..

I believe the OP has hit the nail,on the head too...the figures can be deceptive,unless all the angles are covered..

Anyone else care to estimate how much further price falls will be ??

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Mortgage bloke on Working Lunch just confirmed that increased sales are down to vendors accepting much lower prices.

Increased sales at lower prices.

The End is Nigh 1 - 0 Bullshitters

yes EA told me yesterday he more buyers so he thinks market bottomed out. i said yes, i agree market may well have bottomed out in terms of volume (of house sold) but that doesn't mean house prices will stop falling. good news for you i said as maybe you'll sell something!

but i do think that higher volumes will mean that all prices will still fall the rate of fall will decline. for now whilst interest rates low.

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Anecdotal from today.

I found out yesterday that one of the prime properties in my village that went on sale a month ago sold, it was on for £800k which is pretty much 07 peak price. I was pretty depressed due to feeling that I no longer understand the World I live in but then my wife spoke to one of the her friend who had also offered on the house and found out it went for £675. I felt it would sell for £650k in this market (I would pay around £400k) so now feel less depressed as I do understand the World we live.

Interestingly they had 3 valuations of £650, £700 and £800k and went for the highest in anticipation of the below asking price offers. This also explains the Rightmove figures. It is a unique property in a stunning location near the Church so someone got a reasonable deal if the economy does experience a V shaped recovery coupled with inflation. This I think is unlikely which is why we did not even look at it.

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Anecdotal from today.

I found out yesterday that one of the prime properties in my village that went on sale a month ago sold, it was on for £800k which is pretty much 07 peak price. I was pretty depressed due to feeling that I no longer understand the World I live in but then my wife spoke to one of the her friend who had also offered on the house and found out it went for £675. I felt it would sell for £650k in this market (I would pay around £400k) so now feel less depressed as I do understand the World we live.

Interestingly they had 3 valuations of £650, £700 and £800k and went for the highest in anticipation of the below asking price offers. This also explains the Rightmove figures. It is a unique property in a stunning location near the Church so someone got a reasonable deal if the economy does experience a V shaped recovery coupled with inflation. This I think is unlikely which is why we did not even look at it.

So 15% off peak price I bet the vendors are very happy.

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Mortgage bloke on Working Lunch just confirmed that increased sales are down to vendors accepting much lower prices.

Increased sales at lower prices.

The End is Nigh 1 - 0 Bullshitters

Yes, no "spring bounce" on prices then ? :unsure: Makes you wonder how much lower these recent "sold" prices really are now?

I just caught some of this interview, but didn't he also say that more of these sales were from cash buyers now?

Because as already said on this forum, if these inceased sales, are due to cash rich going into property, because of low interest rates on their cash, this can't go on for long. Once the cash in savings is spent, no more cash sales.

No wonder this mortage guy was bigging up the 95% FTBer mortgages that you can now get from Lloyds via deposit gifting from parents. :rolleyes:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/575b6aa4-4528-11...144feabdc0.html

These are just another attempt at keeping those house prices over inflated imo.

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Mortgage bloke on Working Lunch just confirmed that increased sales are down to vendors accepting much lower prices.

Increased sales at lower prices.

The End is Nigh 1 - 0 Bullshitters

:lol::lol::lol:

Increased transactions only happened in significant numbers this past couple of months.

But NSA prices for the same period are actually up on Halifax and Nationwide indices.

So how does that fit into your theory?

You and the BBC must be on drugs.

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Mortgage bloke on Working Lunch just confirmed that increased sales are down to vendors accepting much lower prices.

Increased sales at lower prices.

The End is Nigh 1 - 0 Bullshitters

Lol, lower prices attract higher volumes. How surprising!

I await the next explanation from our bovine friends. Perhaps Mr McTav could get into even more granular detail than usual, whilst continuing to completely miss the very simple point. I enjoy that stuff.

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:lol::lol::lol:

Increased transactions only happened in significant numbers this past couple of months.

But NSA prices for the same period are actually up on Halifax and Nationwide indices.

So how does that fit into your theory?

You and the BBC must be on drugs.

Ahhh, you beat me to it.

Pls explain the above to a simpleton .... you are saying that the increased transactions led to increased prices?

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To summarise - gross mortgage lending for house purchase down c.60% yoy.

House prices down from peak c.25%.

LTV's have fallen significantly - witness product requirements. (CML refuses to publish data anymore presumably 'so they don't scare the market').

Transactions have risen a bit (?evidence?).

So basically far less lending per property. To get sales away, vendors are increasingly dropping their prices. This is more drastic for those that have been on the market for some time than those coming on recently.

Its from Rinoa so some rose tinted spectacles are required:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...howtopic=115124

This thread ran yesterday. Transactions were at a similar level according to HMRC, but up if seasonal adjustments are taken into account.

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:lol::lol::lol:

Increased transactions only happened in significant numbers this past couple of months.

But NSA prices for the same period are actually up on Halifax and Nationwide indices.

So how does that fit into your theory?

A couple of clues for you:

springAUSTIN0702_468x594.jpgcoil%20spring.jpg

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My money is on 2009 dropping at least 12%.

And 2010? And 2011? And 2012? And 2013?

The last crash in the 90s took four or five years to pan out. Only forced sellers are setting the lower rates. I won't sell at a lower price, because my house is worth more than that discounted price. If nobody comes round I'll just wait. Only when I've lost my job or got divorced will I have to think seriously.

These events, while not uncommon, are rare enough that the market can still be in denial. But after three or four years there will be enough evidence that houses have been sold at a discount that even the most stubborn seller will have to capitulate. Only at that point will the downward pressure stop, and we will see this whole sorry bubble start to inflate again.

2014 sounds right to me.

[i declare myself a self-professed housing expert -- therefore that is what I am.]

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Considering the news the facts and the figures that continue to come out, why does anyone think we are at the bottom of this global crash? Why does anyone even in Maidstone think pulling up details of a single house proves the market is on the up? Can some people not take in the enormity of the situation we face GLOBALY. We have now entered the era of mass unemployment, it's now reality sinks in as it bites hard, job loses are ensuring there is no security for so many people. There has been a small spring bounce of not very impressive numbers from what was dire numbers. We soon will enter what has become the slower 6 months of the year. Let's see how this period works out. My money is on 2009 dropping at least 12%.

SO frustrating innit!

The Tip of the Titanic(public) has just touched the iceberg - the rest of the ship can feel the judder(media) - but momentum just keeps pushing liner straight into the mass(frozen market) and ultimate sinking(of Prices). :lol:

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Ahhh, you beat me to it.

Pls explain the above to a simpleton .... you are saying that the increased transactions led to increased prices?

Yes, if they increase significantly over 4/5 months ~ and there is not an equal surge in supply.

The effect is not immediate, which is why TEIN thinks his theory of "increased transactions lead to lower prices"

is working.

And just for the record, TEIN's original theory is not the same as what the broker on working lunch said.

What the broker said may eventually be correct, but not in the timescale he was referring to.

Edited by Rinoa

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Yes, if they increase significantly over 4/5 months ~ and there is not an equal surge in supply.

The effect is not immediate, which is why TEIN thinks his theory of "increased transactions lead to lower prices"

is working.

And just for the record, TEIN's original theory is not the same as what the broker on working lunch said.

What the broker said may eventually be correct, but not in the timescale he was referring to.

Transactions are occurring because sellers are willing to accept lower prices and buyers think they are getting a bargain.

Buyers are currently augmented by cash buyers...hence falling mortgage lending at the same time as rising transactions (assuming seasonal adjustments ;) ). Ther eare only so many potential cash buyers.

If supply of reasonably priced property does not increase, or asking prices rise, my money is on the Mexican standoff of last year returning. Prices will not rise significantly as unemployment spikes.

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Yes, if they increase significantly over 4/5 months ~ and there is not an equal surge in supply.

The effect is not immediate, which is why TEIN thinks his theory of "increased transactions lead to lower prices"

is working.

And just for the record, TEIN's original theory is not the same as what the broker on working lunch said.

What the broker said may eventually be correct, but not in the timescale he was referring to.

so we're not seeing increased sales on lower prices?

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:lol::lol::lol:

Increased transactions only happened in significant numbers this past couple of months.

But NSA prices for the same period are actually up on Halifax and Nationwide indices.

So how does that fit into your theory?

You and the BBC must be on drugs.

Have you put any money on the house prices futures market? If you're right you'll make a killing!

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