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Guest vicmac64

The Markets Are Up On Yesterdays Falls....

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Guest vicmac64

Most people believe that the recession has turned the corner - but they are wrong. Believing what they hear as ever from our media, not doing the sums, not understanding the nature of the crash they believe that things can only get better from here on in.....

They are wrong.

Get ready for the next BEAR RUN on the Debt fuelled ftse 100.

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Most people believe that the recession has turned the corner - but they are wrong. Believing what they hear as ever from our media, not doing the sums, not understanding the nature of the crash they believe that things can only get better from here on in.....

They are wrong.

Get ready for the next BEAR RUN on the Debt fuelled ftse 100.

Care to elaborate?

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Most people believe that the recession has turned the corner - but they are wrong. Believing what they hear as ever from our media, not doing the sums, not understanding the nature of the crash they believe that things can only get better from here on in.....

They are wrong.

Get ready for the next BEAR RUN on the Debt fuelled ftse 100.

Absolute utter rubbish as usual. Debasing currencies if nothing else will see increases in all indices.

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Guest X-QUORK

Stocks schmocks...uppy-downy, uppy-downy.

How is this linked to MPs expenses?

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Hmmm, someone on HPC claims with certainty that the stock market is about to crash - BUY! BUY! BUY!

Yes - thats HPC the one site/ community that foresaw the current housing market crash.

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Hmmm, someone on HPC claims with certainty that the stock market is about to crash - BUY! BUY! BUY!

Surely then that would be sell sell sell?

These predictions make me laugh, nobody knows and I mean nobody.

The one thing that is certain though is one day they will correct.

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I don't think that this is the only group of people who saw that there was going to be a crash, most rational observers could see that the inflation of house prices had gone too high by 2003, it's just the timing of the crash most people could not agree on.

Every boom is followed by a bust, it's the nature of the economic cycle.

Edit: by the way, the crash won't last forever either, but I wouldn't like to call the bottom.

Edited by GGGGGGGGarry

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Bubbles are irrational. It is therefore impossible to call the the top in a rational fashion - for in a rational world there would be no bubble. It was obvious to me in 2002 that I was buying an over-valued house. Best decision of my life though.

Waste of effort trying to predict.

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Care to explain why?

there are 100 coins in circulation to buy 100 magic beans. The bank of make believe decides that the economy is failing through lack of coinage and creates 100 more coins.

What happens to the price of magic beans?

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Absolute utter rubbish as usual. Debasing currencies if nothing else will see increases in all indices.

+1

Nobody knows if the stock markets will crash,flatline in range or rocket.Nobody.We do know that governments are printing like crazy.Im still investing every month in equities in Asia and will continue to do so whatever.I invest a small amount in the FTSE allshare as well.IMO we will enter a multi decade bull market in stocks at some point in the next 24 months.Could be from much lower lows but i feel everything is pointing to foreign equities being good long term investments for sterling investors.

Dripping in is a good idea in this enviroment IMO

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Guest vicmac64

Oh yeah - the governments are printing - BUT THE BANKS AREN'T LENDING............

And the markets rely on Main Street.

+1

Nobody knows if the stock markets will crash,flatline in range or rocket.Nobody.We do know that governments are printing like crazy.Im still investing every month in equities in Asia and will continue to do so whatever.I invest a small amount in the FTSE allshare as well.IMO we will enter a multi decade bull market in stocks at some point in the next 24 months.Could be from much lower lows but i feel everything is pointing to foreign equities being good long term investments for sterling investors.

Dripping in is a good idea in this enviroment IMO

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Care to explain why?

Massive printing of money and forthcoming inflation will push the markets up IMO. Agreed that that doesn't mean we are any wealthier as the actual value of money will have decreased, however, in pure numeric terms, there will be higher profits and higher share prices. Maybe a bit of a pull back at the moment but if we go below 3,500 again then I shall retire from the market for good. (Not least 'cos i'll have done me conkers!). :lol:

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Hmmm, someone on HPC claims with certainty that the stock market is about to crash - BUY! BUY! BUY!

+1 :lol:

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Oh yeah - the governments are printing - BUT THE BANKS AREN'T LENDING............

And the markets rely on Main Street.

Many investment funds are massively cash rich at the moment. And they still get a nice monthly update from the likes of me and millions of other who, rightly or wrongly, keep giving them money. That's the fundamental difference between the housing markets and stock markets. Access to funds.

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there are 100 coins in circulation to buy 100 magic beans. The bank of make believe decides that the economy is failing through lack of coinage and creates 100 more coins.

What happens to the price of magic beans?

I can see you simple logic but you are forgetting that the clumsy owner of the coins keeps dropping them down drains and places where they can't be retrieved and quite likely currently at a rate quicker than the central banks are currently issuing them. There is an argument the money being pushed out by the central banks is going straight into the stock market but this is not where it needs to go at the moment, it needs to be lent to reckless consumer to support the very companies that are in the stockmarkets that have fed at credit bubble levels to achieve their recent profit and need this sustaining just to stand still.

It does not guarantee stock market will go up if the central banks are issuing extra currency if deleveraging is destroying it at a faster rate. It is a very tricky thing to get right so we could have massive inflation but equally we could remain trapped in the deflationary spiral associated with credit bubble bursting at the rate they are. Also in general inflation is not the saviour for stock, indebted individuals and business everyone assumes.

What ever happens there will be pain recovering form this crisis and I don't believe the stock market will a great place to park your money. In real terms the stock market may become very cheap but in nominal terms at best I think it will move sideways.

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+1

Nobody knows if the stock markets will crash,flatline in range or rocket.Nobody.We do know that governments are printing like crazy.Im still investing every month in equities in Asia and will continue to do so whatever.I invest a small amount in the FTSE allshare as well.IMO we will enter a multi decade bull market in stocks at some point in the next 24 months.Could be from much lower lows but i feel everything is pointing to foreign equities being good long term investments for sterling investors.

Dripping in is a good idea in this enviroment IMO

i suspect we'll see a lot of small V-shaped rises and falls over the coming months. I don't believe we'll touch the March lows again, and we could have a period of far less volatility before a second leg down in stocks next year.

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Absolute utter rubbish as usual. Debasing currencies if nothing else will see increases in all indices.

+1

Funny how people want to have currency collapses and asset collapses.

Rising stock markets could be a natural result of people chosing to invest in assets rather than holding cash which is likely to be systematically devalued.

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I can see you simple logic but you are forgetting that the clumsy owner of the coins keeps dropping them down drains and places where they can't be retrieved and quite likely currently at a rate quicker than the central banks are currently issuing them. There is an argument the money being pushed out by the central banks is going straight into the stock market but this is not where it needs to go at the moment, it needs to be lent to reckless consumer to support the very companies that are in the stockmarkets that have fed at credit bubble levels to achieve their recent profit and need this sustaining just to stand still.

It does not guarantee stock market will go up if the central banks are issuing extra currency if deleveraging is destroying it at a faster rate. It is a very tricky thing to get right so we could have massive inflation but equally we could remain trapped in the deflationary spiral associated with credit bubble bursting at the rate they are. Also in general inflation is not the saviour for stock, indebted individuals and business everyone assumes.

What ever happens there will be pain recovering form this crisis and I don't believe the stock market will a great place to park your money. In real terms the stock market may become very cheap but in nominal terms at best I think it will move sideways.

The magic bean bank allows the none magic bean banks to create their pretend magic beans at 10 times the amount of magic beans they hold in reserve. If the none magic bean banks lend 10% less money into the economy then the money supply falls by about 9% or 100 magic beans + 1000 none magic beans - a 10% fall of 100 none magic beans.

If the none magic beans then lend another 10% less the magic bean bank can create another 100 magic beans.

It is all magic until there is too much magic and right now there is insufficient magic.

And you have your real and nominal round the wrong way? The stock market could double but still not keep pace with inflation compared to other assets.

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Absolute utter rubbish as usual. Debasing currencies if nothing else will see increases in all indices.

Source please.

At what point in history has every single country debased it's currency.

The US are printing.

The UK are printing etc...

Has the Zimbabwe stock exchange kept it's value?

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We could still have a slight retrace, but, of what I've seen and IMO, we are at stock bottom.

BKIR stock has risen will over 1000% in eight weeks. Happy I bought when I did.

IMO, Fill yer boots!!

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I think a much bigger factor is the sheer amount of money there already is out there and the asset classes it flows between.

New money pales in comparison.

An asset class can rise even if there is deflation overall.

What we are increasingly seeing is fear of inflation and comfort that the financial system is 'fixed'.

So under the money flow theory what assets are likely to benefit?

Commodities and commodity producers. I still think that Platinum is an absolute steal at its current price... once the high tech car industry gets on its feet, there are going to be BIG shortages of the stuff... within the next 10 years imo.

Hydrogen cells, modern catalitic converters as well as a host of exotic materials require platinum.

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