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drrayjo

June And July Will Bring The Pessimists Back On The Table

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Well, the rally has kept him quiet for some time but his teutonic juices are flowing once again, if a little more jerky and circumspect.

This time he is betting on midsummer events maintaining his (waning?) credibility.

Grounding - Part II

BY: CRISIS MANAGER Thursday 21. May 2009 10:29 Age: 4 hrs

The begin of the real crisis - return of the pessimists

The worldwide differences are interesting to observe. In the US people still talk about free markets. In Spain people talk about "la crisis" for more than two years now, while in Germany only a few are concerned. But the latest news are showing that the bear market rally might come to an end and we will face again a severe meltdown in financial markets.

The recently released FEDs minutes reveal that the issues in the banking system are still persistent. At this moment banks have raised $57 billion of capital in the equity markets. This might be the last time they will be able to attract funds from non-governmental investors for a longer period of time. The concerns on the fragility of the banking system rise as commercial real estate and consumer delinquencies rise to new, unprecedented levels. And this trend will continue for quite a while, as GDP is set to contract further.

Britain now entered into the housing slump and will give British banks another shockwave of issues to deal with. The British and US government see already that Quantitative easing does not bring down the yields of the long term guilt or treasury bonds as investor’s priced in the central banks activities. Analysts on CNBC stated that “quantitative easing is ineffective”.

In the meanwhile crowding out of good business practices takes place. Business owners find themselves in bankruptcy with little or no notice and as a result unemployment rises and bank loans continue to implode. (read this story)

Therefore June and July will bring the pessimists back on the table. If they are right, than the contraction and crisis has not even started, yet, but is just about to emerge.

http://www.berninger.de/details/datum/2009...ng-part-ii.html

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I think we are right at the end of this bear market/suckers rally, both in the stock markets and property markets. June will see carnage I reckon and we will enter the capitulation phase or whatever it's called.

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I stopped reading this guys stuff when he confused debt with credit.

He said in march that the UK was going to enter hyperinflation in June.

I think ill pass on his analysis.

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I stopped reading this guys stuff when he confused debt with credit.

He said in march that the UK was going to enter hyperinflation in June.

I think ill pass on his analysis.

I can't help but see this as a ringing endorsement, tbh.

it's the HPC version of Robert Peston saying there is no need to panic.

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This is defenitely only just the beginning

Big changes are coming IMO both here and in Europe

:blink:

Yep. Labour obilerated at the Euro and Local elections in June. Mandy turns up at number 10 next morning with a bottle of whiskey and revolver with Alan Johnson along side.

New Temporary PM Johnson calls and election for July.

"Things can only get better" is released and goes straight to number 1.

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I can't help but see this as a ringing endorsement, tbh.

it's the HPC version of Robert Peston saying there is no need to panic.

So when a guy gets it wrong it's a plus :blink:

I don't see any wheelbarrows around and theres only 8 days to go.

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So when a guy gets it wrong it's a plus :blink:

I don't see any wheelbarrows around and theres only 8 days to go.

ye,s but you see you've got him getting it wrong 8 days too early.

With thinking skills like that, anyone you disparage is only going to come out of it well.

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ye,s but you see you've got him getting it wrong 8 days too early.

With thinking skills like that, anyone you disparage is only going to come out of it well.

How much did a loaf of bread cost in march?

How much does a load of bread cost today?

What are the chances of a load of bread costing significantly more in 8 days?

I think I'm happy with my extrapolation.

Let's meet up again in 8 days and discuss my thinking skills bro.

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How much did a loaf of bread cost in march?

How much does a load of bread cost today?

What are the chances of a load of bread costing significantly more in 8 days?

I think I'm happy with my extrapolation.

Let's meet up again in 8 days and discuss my thinking skills bro.

Well June doesn't last 1 day so again your thinking skills aren't the greatest.

Not a thinking skill thing particularly, but hyperinflations tend to happen in days or weeks, they don't have long ramp up periods. That's why they are called "crack up booms."

As it is I expect the US to go into pointlessly high inflation in June, the figures for the Uk are a lot murkier so it's hard to tell when the inevitable hyperinflation will occur, but June is as good a date as any other tbh.

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Well June doesn't last 1 day so again your thinking skills aren't the greatest.

Not a thinking skill thing particularly, but hyperinflations tend to happen in days or weeks, they don't have long ramp up periods. That's why they are called "crack up booms."

As it is I expect the US to go into pointlessly high inflation in June, the figures for the Uk are a lot murkier so it's hard to tell when the inevitable hyperinflation will occur, but June is as good a date as any other tbh.

He said by june.

Fancy a wager on the price of a pack of waffles come 1st july?

Edited by Alan B'Stard MP

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He said by june.

he might have, I don't know.

All I know is what you reported him as saying -"He said in march that the UK was going to enter hyperinflation in June."

Fancy a wager on the price of a pack of waffles come 1st july?

Sure.

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I have no idea.

Injin it is a simple wager - stop being a pussy and agree to the bet, or alternatively stop insulting the B'stards ''thinking skills'. I would suggest a 10% increase on a basket of goods, rather than a particular brand of biscuits - if more than 10% at the end of next month (annualised well over 120%...looks pretty hyperinflationary to me) then Injin wins, if not then he loses.

Of course I don't expect you to agree to anything, seeing as it is hard enough to get you to agree things exist in the first place. <_<

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Injin it is a simple wager - stop being a pussy and agree to the bet, or alternatively stop insulting the B'stards ''thinking skills'. I would suggest a 10% increase on a basket of goods, rather than a particular brand of biscuits - if more than 10% at the end of next month (annualised well over 120%...looks pretty hyperinflationary to me) then Injin wins, if not then he loses.

Of course I don't expect you to agree to anything, seeing as it is hard enough to get you to agree things exist in the first place. <_<

That seems much fairer, yes.

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Sure, it could be.

Dear oh dear - first you agree to a wager, then when it is put on the table you start to become slippery and evasive.

<_<<_<<_<<_<<_<<_<

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Dear oh dear - first you agree to a wager, then when it is put on the table you start to become slippery and evasive.

<_<<_<<_<<_<<_<<_<

Er, no.

I just keep right on saying the truth as I see it.

Read above.

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