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Rinoa

Hmrc: April House Sales Up 9%

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Recovery marches on. :)

This tells me the rate of price declines is slowing down. I expect the annual rate fall to drop to only 5-10% by summer. We can have our different views as to whether that is a recovery.

VMR.

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HMRC

Seasonally adjusted. Up from 59k in March to 64k April.

Recovery marches on. :)

No economist but doesn't it work that the within reason the cheaper a product the more you sell of it? So how does volume prove anything about a price obscentity rise (can't bring myself to call it a recovery for all the documented reasons of sane people on here)

Edited by Greg Bowman

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HMRC

Seasonally adjusted. Up from 59k in March to 64k April.

Recovery marches on. :)

This news, coupled with the fact that mortgage approvals have fallen 9%, suggests to me that the hoovering up of all that frightened cash continues apace.

Cant be much cash left sloshing about now.

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Guest theboltonfury
Seriously Rinoa, thanks for posting these links. It's very reassuring to see such clear evidence of further price declines.

If my car is on its last legs but this month only the clutch goes, does this mean that my car is in a state of recovery or is continuing to get much worse?

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Recovery marches on. :)

Rinoa is absolutely right here- the recovery is marching on. It started marching around September 2007 and it is going to march on for another year or so.

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This news, coupled with the fact that mortgage approvals have fallen 9%, suggests to me that the hoovering up of all that frightened cash continues apace.

Cant be much cash left sloshing about now.

Yes, maybe the stockmarket has attracted a bit too. Wonder how the lender's capital ratios are looking?

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http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8060872.stm

The total amount of mortgage lending fell back again in April, the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) said.

The amount lent by its members stood at £10.4bn, down from £11.4bn in March, and was 60% lower than in April 2008.

The CML said the drop during last month was due to a seasonal factor, with Easter falling in April this year, rather than in March a year ago.

The lenders organisation played down recent suggestions that the housing market may be about to pick up.

"It's still too early to spot a clear pattern of recovery in the housing market as some commentators have suggested," said the CML's director general Michael Coogan.

"Activity remains weak, and we have said we will see volatility in monthly lending figures as we bounce along at the bottom of the market," he added.

Yep clearly the recovery is happening lending picking up the economy is awash with cash.

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As someone who is testing the water right now, my anecdotal experience in SW London is of an active and depressingly competitive market. Every house I have seen is already under offer :(.

I hope it is a seasonal trend that will die off...

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Guest X-QUORK
As someone who is testing the water right now, my anecdotal experience in SW London is of an active and depressingly competitive market. Every house I have seen is already under offer :(.

I hope it is a seasonal trend that will die off...

Strange reaction for a bull.

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So more houses were sold this month but less money was needed to buy more houses.

This would suggest to me that each house was, on average, far cheaper this month than last month.

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So more houses were sold this month but less money was needed to buy more houses.

This would suggest to me that each house was, on average, far cheaper this month than last month.

Yes, so thanks to Rinoa for bringing this to our attention.

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Yes, maybe the stockmarket has attracted a bit too. Wonder how the lender's capital ratios are looking?

Theyd sure look better if they put up their rates. :rolleyes:

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Sales up but mortgage lending down, (though I take the point about remortgagers going on to SVR). The VIs are winning the battle in one sense....

They are tempting the cash out of savings accounts which may have poor interest rates, but at least secure your capital, and pulling the cash into an asset class that is devaluing at 20% per year. THere are some very stupid people out there who are going to get very angry when the prices of houses continue to fall. THeir shiny new BTL investment will be giving them a return of 6%, but the capital tied up in the house will depreciate by 20%+. Meanwhile wh

When interest rates rise to counter inflation, the savings rates will be up above the 6% that they get on the property rental.

In hindsight 3% in a savings account backed by a government scheme would not be looking too bad!

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HMRC

Seasonally adjusted. Up from 59k in March to 64k April.

Recovery marches on. :)

*looks at link*

Right. House sales in April this year exactly the same as last month.

So let me get this right. You're relying on Seasonal Adjustment to show a spring bounce?

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Sales up but mortgage lending down, (though I take the point about remortgagers going on to SVR). The VIs are winning the battle in one sense....

They are tempting the cash out of savings accounts which may have poor interest rates, but at least secure your capital, and pulling the cash into an asset class that is devaluing at 20% per year. THere are some very stupid people out there who are going to get very angry when the prices of houses continue to fall. THeir shiny new BTL investment will be giving them a return of 6%, but the capital tied up in the house will depreciate by 20%+. Meanwhile wh

When interest rates rise to counter inflation, the savings rates will be up above the 6% that they get on the property rental.

In hindsight 3% in a savings account backed by a government scheme would not be looking too bad!

They may not have any market knowledge either.

We saw a house round the corner bought up quite quickly and now on for rent, but at quite a high price and old and outdated decor.

It may not be too long before they give up and sell, or invest even more money into updating it.

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IIRC, April 08 wasn't exactly a boom month to be 60% down on was it?

What the !!! Does this mean that although up a little from last month, nowhere near last year, which was already a very low base?!

Jesus, this recovereh is sh*t and quite frankly, I blame Cartman.

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No economist but doesn't it work that the within reason the cheaper a product the more you sell of it? So how does volume prove anything about a price obscentity rise (can't bring myself to call it a recovery for all the documented reasons of sane people on here)

Price elasticity of demand i believe its called

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_elasticity_of_demand

Cut the price and more will sell basically

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What the !!! Does this mean that although up a little from last month, nowhere near last year, which was already a very low base?!

Jesus, this recovereh is sh*t and quite frankly, I blame Cartman.

CML April Figures

Also it is worth pointing out that these are the Gross Lending figures and they held up quite well for a while, but Converted Lurker seemed to think they weren't indicative as the Net lending figures were more important.

A lack of "churn" may be relevant here as well, if customers stay on SVR because it is cheaper or because they can't get a deal.

Anyone who knows more about this could help me out here. :)

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