Another Five Years Of Brown ?

[abharrisson]

For many ( and rightly in my view) Brown has a lot to answer for in relation to our current economic situation, many I feel are hoping that the next election will see new labour voted out and a new lot come in who can perhaps tame the public sector spending beast and with it our futures.

There is a real danger however that the current expenses scandal is going to play into browns hands..... without it the local elections and euro elections showing support rapidly leaving labour, coupled with another few months of malaise would surely have resulted in a new government come next May.... now however things are different and heres why.

What I fear we will see in the forthcoming election is a resurgent Independent sector, and a resurgent small party sector both driven by the expenses scandal..... so the greens, BNP, UKIP and the libdems will all do well.... why becasue they are largely unaffected by the expnses scandal... equally a number of single independents will rise and take votes.

The critical thing is I believe these votes will more likely to come from current or future tory voters than from Labour voters...... this could well leave labour least effected by all this and leave it with more of a chance of survival especially in some of the key marginals...... independents and smaller parties tend to draw more votes from tory or tory potential voters than they do from labour or labour potential voters....

Five more years of Brown... it could still yet happen, you have been warned.

[AteMoose]

Labour was ahead in the polls for the first 4 or 5 months Gordon was PM (when he almost called an election), since then labour has been behind...

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/interac...oting-intention

[Roman Abramovitch]

Labour party conference: sneak pictures

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_urFu6168K6o/SgXV...1600-h/PIGS.jpg

Source: The Motley Fool - Jokers Corner

[MSWHPC]

however disaffected people are, who is going to vote Labour?

[Guest Skinty]

You forget that in Scotland we have a mainstream party that we can vote for as an alternative to Labour that are not involved in anyway with the expenses scandal of Westminster. In fact the party already currently form a minority government up here.

[Berk-hater]

Nah, ZanuLabour have so many despisable characters in the cabinet that no-one in their right mind could vote them in. The Tory election campaign will focus on ensuring that floating voters that might support independents or smaller parties will worry about wasting their vote and allowing Broon back in via the backdoor. I also believe that the Tories have worked hard on keeping their powder dry until the election. Why else would we repeatedly see Cameron's team apparently failing to nail the current govt. on their failings as and when it happens? It's also part of the reason why Broon keeps trying to goad the Tories on "not coming up with policies". My hope is that they've learnt their lesson about Labour stealing their ideas, and so they're holding back until the election campaign by which time ZanuLabour will have set out their stall and won't have time to steal the Tories' ideas. They'll also have a significantly better funded campaign and a more motivated set of party activists. Can you imagine going door-knocking for Labour sometime in the next 12 months? I'd bet most Labour activists would rather eat their own sh*t. Added to which the economy will be so deep in the Broon sticky stuff by this time next year that it'll be a landslide to the Conservatives.

C'mon an English Government!

[Patfig]

For many ( and rightly in my view) Brown has a lot to answer for in relation to our current economic situation, many I feel are hoping that the next election will see new labour voted out and a new lot come in who can perhaps tame the public sector spending beast and with it our futures.

There is a real danger however that the current expenses scandal is going to play into browns hands..... without it the local elections and euro elections showing support rapidly leaving labour, coupled with another few months of malaise would surely have resulted in a new government come next May.... now however things are different and heres why.

What I fear we will see in the forthcoming election is a resurgent Independent sector, and a resurgent small party sector both driven by the expenses scandal..... so the greens, BNP, UKIP and the libdems will all do well.... why becasue they are largely unaffected by the expnses scandal... equally a number of single independents will rise and take votes.

The critical thing is I believe these votes will more likely to come from current or future tory voters than from Labour voters...... this could well leave labour least effected by all this and leave it with more of a chance of survival especially in some of the key marginals...... independents and smaller parties tend to draw more votes from tory or tory potential voters than they do from labour or labour potential voters....

Five more years of Brown... it could still yet happen, you have been warned.

[/quot

Protect yourselves wah wah wha wha

[Si1]

however disaffected people are, who is going to vote Labour?

it's the economy stoopid...

peoples' wallets vote for them most of the time

[Moo]

it's the economy stoopid...

peoples' wallets vote for them most of the time

When it comes to general elections, spot on.

[sbn]

I am a worrier

Before sept 2007 I worried that I would never be able to afford a house.

From then till 2009 I worried that we might have systemic collapse

This year I have been worried that HPC will not move fast enought for my purposes

More recently I am starting to worry about systemic collapse and war again

I am worried about my job

I worry for my children.

I have never, EVER, at any point worried that Zanulab will get back in again. THEY ARE DEAD FOR GENERATIONS!!! as long as people alive toaday can speak to their offspring and tell them what the LAbour Party REALLY is. and what it REALLY means, they will never be in power.

[Guest pioneer31]

it's the economy stoopid...

peoples' wallets vote for them most of the time

Help for hooomoooners, help for the elderly, help for this, help for that, single mothers, lazy people, shirkers, illegals etc

all paid for by you and me

whereas the Tooooories will cut, cut, cut, cut, cut. (Nice bit of scaremongering)

[andykn]

it's the economy stoopid...

peoples' wallets vote for them most of the time

They didn't in 1997. Major had just about put the last recession and crash behind him but still got voted out on sleaze.

Could a perception that the Tories will tax more cost them votes? I don't think many people seriously believe the "cutting waste" agenda - all politicians always say that.

[R K]

Don't be silly. Brown won't even be leading his own party by the Autumn.

He's crispy toast. His closest allies are lining up to stick knives in him.

[Alba]

You forget that in Scotland we have a mainstream party that we can vote for as an alternative to Labour that are not involved in anyway with the expenses scandal of Westminster. In fact the party already currently form a minority government up here.

What about Alex Salmond's £400 per week Westminster food claim, when he was rarely there?

[spivT]

no, what will play into browns hands, if anything.......are the financial props they've put in place to 'stabilise' the economy.

They have supposedly been aggressive in trying to inspire the "C" word, and the BoE have been aggressive in their role of price setter, and more importantly with QE attempting to manipulate a reallocation of investment away from the bond markets and into things like equities. encoraging investors to take a 'risk' on an oversold market by providing less enticing returns in the safe haven markets.

If they can keep these supports inplace - continue with the backstopping, the manipulation and the disregard for moral hazard, they will undoubtedly continue to inspire talk of green shoots and the resilience of UK plc. however if and when these supports are removed then you could have trouble's being stored up for 12-18 months from now. How much of this 'recovereh' and greenshoots are based on the monetary and fiscal props ? and what will be the reaction when things like QE are stopped ? how much is the economy really able to stand on it's own two feet and how wil they know if they don't remove the training wheels ? interesting times for any govt. in may 2010.

it's conceivable brown and the boe can keep the charade going until 2010 when they will attempt to claim the plaudits for reaching they're respective aims. beyond the short-term there is uncertainty especially for the housing market.

[Guest pioneer31]

People will get scared by all the "Tories will cut VITAL (ie schools and hospitals) services" propaganda.

So keep voting Labour.

Remember in 1997 - "you only have 24hrs to save the NHS"?

[Berk-hater]

You forget that in Scotland we have a mainstream party that we can vote for as an alternative to Labour that are not involved in anyway with the expenses scandal of Westminster. In fact the party already currently form a minority government up here.

You're right, I did forget Scotland had a "mainstream party" in the Scottish National Party, much like I "forgot" we had the British National Party.

[lulu]

however disaffected people are, who is going to vote Labour?

There are alot of people around my work who still think that Labour and Brown are doing a great job.

I think their mindset is stuck in the mid 80''s somewhere. All I ever here is things about nasty tories who would close all the schools and hospitals. Labour are for the working people apparently- funny, they are doing sod all for me - I dont quite think these people quite realise what a big mess we are in and what a mess Labour have made of the economy.

[bagsos]

Funnily enough just discussing this with one of the younger people at work. He was a paid up member and an activist for labour but left in disgust after Iraq; he now doesn't know a single person who will vote for them whilst any of the cabinet who voted for Iraq is in any position of authority. Couple that with a trashed economy, Hazel Blears and Jackie Smith's husband, and they have no chance at all of getting back in.

[bogbrush]

What about Alex Salmond's £400 per week Westminster food claim, when he was rarely there?

I can't beleive Alex Salmond gets by on £400/week for food. He looks to me like he goes through that a day.

[Guest anorthosite]

You're right, I did forget Scotland had a "mainstream party" in the Scottish National Party, much like I "forgot" we had the British National Party.

If you're so shallow that you compare parties based on their names, then can I point out that the SNP have taken power up here? That makes them pretty mainstream, unlike the dear old BNP, who incidentally, we have up here too (do you need the difference between Britain and England explained as well?).

[jp1]

however disaffected people are, who is going to vote Labour?

The 500 million postal votes?

Gordon "I Heart Ghurkas" Brown: We cant have an election yet, as I havent got enough postal votes printed yet..doing my best, Ill let you know when Im ready

[Guest anorthosite]

I can't beleive Alex Salmond gets by on £400/week for food. He looks to me like he goes through that a day.

At least he doesn't waste the food he claims for:

[Berk-hater]

If you're so shallow that you compare parties based on their names, then can I point out that the SNP have taken power up here? That makes them pretty mainstream, unlike the dear old BNP, who incidentally, we have up here too (do you need the difference between Britain and England explained as well?).

Oh dear, a little sensitive?! The question is whether we'll have another Brown Govt. For 90% of the UK electorate (yes, thank you, I understand the difference between Britain and England) voting SNP is not an option and won't to a greater extent affect the outcome of the general election anymore than the BNP will.

The comparison was not based on names but on relevance to the likely impact on the results of the next general election. But whilst on the subject of the importance of the SNP. as you've brought it up, might I suggest that had the Labour Party not made such a hash of things over the past 12 years, the SNP would not have have "taken power".

[andykn]

as long as people alive toaday can speak to their offspring and tell them what the LAbour Party REALLY is. and what it REALLY means, they will never be in power.

The message seems to have been forgotton about the Tories already. Trying to jail Matrix Churchill directors when they knew they were innocent, unemployment "an acceptable price to pay" from Cameron's boss, privatising industries then getting cushy non exec jobs on the boards of the industries they'd privatised. Inflation and interest rates in double figures even after over 10 years in power.

Give me a Labour recession (interest rates 0.5%, inflation 3%) over a Tory one any day.

And you've always got Boris to show what Tories in power are like, no London buses running, a feat even the Blitz didn't manage.