Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
Ash4781

The Housing Market May Just Be On The Turn

Recommended Posts

he says there's a lack of supply of houses in the UK

so the house price trend relative to incomes will rise and therefore prices haven't got much further to fall

looks like the bulls have been right all along

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

theres apparently 1m empty properties in the uk and 4m people on council etc wait lists.

i havent seen these cheap properties that match incomes, especially not the new lower income of dole many will be finding

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The article doesn't mention which way Interest Rates might go and the likely effect.

Imagine if you'd told him in 2007 that interest rates would be 0.5% in 2009 he'd probably have thought that the average house price would be over half a million ny now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
he says there's a lack of supply of houses in the UK

so the house price trend relative to incomes will rise and therefore prices haven't got much further to fall

looks like the bulls have been right all along

:lol::lol::lol:

I am presuming you were joking?

If not an unsubstanciated misconception that has been trotted out to perpetuate the boom since back in 2005 when it was clear houses were overvalued but showing signs of crashing does not mean the bulls are right. It is the argument used by every seller who has failed to sell recently and then rented out there house, it has been the most effective piece of propaganda used in this whole corrupt housing market we now have. Time will tell who is right but evidence thus far does not support this massive shortage, if anything we have a massive surplace after 10 years of huge development and conversion of every empty building conceivable. There is an argument that we have built too many of the wrong types of houses but at the right price people will live in them, just currently not at the price they are now advertised at.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

supply / demand is a good point. But its not that their isnt enough dwellings in the UK. Its just a demand to own 50 billion properties because everyone wants to be a property gazillionaire, which causes lack of supply to buy.

Rental supply should always be good as long as there are BTL wanna-be's. So maybe best to rent whilst everyone wants to buy, and buy when everyone wants to rent.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Huh? average wage is 25K, average house is 150K.....6 times salary is the norm?

Bloo Loo has a raised eyebrow.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Huh? average wage is 25K, average house is 150K.....6 times salary is the norm?

Bloo Loo has a raised eyebrow.

I have too :P

Because of course the long term average is arguement is flawed because of the impact of the "bubble" - when its on the long term average from 2001/2002 I'll take more notice.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Huh? average wage is 25K, average house is 150K.....6 times salary is the norm?

Bloo Loo has a raised eyebrow.

he said personal income.

stats and language - beautiful together. :rolleyes:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
he said personal income.

stats and language - beautiful together. :rolleyes:

Of course.....light dawns.....Expenses!.....silly me.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Huh? average wage is 25K, average house is 150K.....6 times salary is the norm?

Bloo Loo has a raised eyebrow.

He is using the Halifax definition of 'an average salary' methinks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
he says there's a lack of supply of houses in the UK

so the house price trend relative to incomes will rise and therefore prices haven't got much further to fall

looks like the bulls have been right all along

If there was genuine lack of supply why didn't rents rise at the same rate as property prices?

Speculation drove prices up, not lack of supply.

house_prices_versus_rents.jpg

Back to school, newdman...

post-278-1242891451_thumb.jpg

Edited by red

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
He is using the Halifax definition of 'an average salary' methinks.

Ah, another one "not breaking the rules".

reality would be a better guide in my opinion, otherwise, as many point out here time and again, you can make the facts fit whatever prediction you like.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Without stating the sources for his figures he seems to be carefully choosing which stats he uses for his assertion that we are only 3% above the long term average for the relationship between prices and salaries.

Was the ommission of his sources an oversight or deliberate?

Subconscious message to everyone reading the times - prices back to normal, lending up, buy, buy, buy!

PS, i live in Coventry. The city has been destroyed by the collapse of the car industry. Whilst there hasnt been car production here for some time, many of the better paying blue collar jobs have been for suppliers for the car industry. Many of these companies have each made hundreds of redundancies since the late part of last year as the car industry fell to its knees. And I cant see anything changing on that score. Oh, and some Auto ind suppliers have been laid off for months and then return to work for short time working.

Avg local salary is lower than national avge salary - my guess is that up to 15% less. But a 3 bed terrace here is still advertised at 6 times national avge salary!

Like Mr. K. says - just 3% to go then. Buy!!! buy!!!! buy!!!!! :unsure:

Edited by Nick Dastardly

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Kaletsky is a cretin who has got it completely wrong over the last two years, why he hasn't lost his job makes me think he must be doing the editor of the times special favours.

The man is worse than a cretin he is a dangerous one who some people might be stupid enough to believe and lose their money following his advice. He has been constantly wrong I also can not understand who he has a job.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That article is staggeringly moronic for a man who is supposedly an economist. He seems to have completely ignored the money. Specifically, where it came from to cause the boom, and where it's gone now.

Just... breathtaking.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
If there was genuine lack of supply why didn't rents rise at the same rate as property prices?

Speculation drove prices up, not lack of supply.

house_prices_versus_rents.jpg

Back to school, newdman...

Great graph, what's the source?

That rent curve looks very similar to wage inflation to me...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

lets pretend prices have fallen back to average incomes (they haven't by a long way) -

to buy people need a secure job, larger deposit, confidence in house prices not falling

- they have none of those things really.

even when that illusion is the case, property prices may suffer from investment fashions just like antiques and collectibles, many of which are about half the price they were 10 years ago - see my off topic (thats half price before worrying about inflation!)

speculative heat goes out of the property market permanently? you'll get prices 70 to 75 % down from peak in some cases, especially if we get 5m+ unemployed, the low interest rates Labour support machine will have to be switched off at some point and then I'm afraid its good night vienna

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:   295 members have voted

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.