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bear_or_bull

The Next Boot To Drop

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The green, green shoots of spring are forcing their way up through the frosty soil... Or whatever.

At the moment every piece of (continued) bad news is conspicuously ignored by the market. Indices continue to rise on low volumes.

In the absence of a pull back this will grow into a fully fledge V shaped recovereh. But what might trigger the pull back? Will it be the drip, drip, drip of bad news, or a whopper?

Any thoughts?

Japan gdp back to the early 90s?

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/articl...Tya2yAD98A0C6O0

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/05/20...o-lost-decades/

Another Asian crisis?

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/05/20...on-asian-banks/

A crude oil pull back (or spike?) hitting Index big hitters...?

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE54I6VK20090519

http://www.nasdaq.com/aspx/stock-market-ne...ally-at-end-apr

Continued mortgage reset problems in the states?

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/05/...cast-chart.html

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/05/20...linquent-spike/

Earnings reality bites back?

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/05/normalizing-earnings/

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/05/sp-50...ngs-decline-90/

Bond yields force mortgage rates up?

http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/05/19/w...-yields-rising/

http://www.thetruthaboutmortgage.com/what-...-rates-to-move/

Who knows? What else could be lurking out there? Or will these weeds soon grow strong?

Any thoughts?

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Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable

IWantToBelieve.jpg

Do not question the Great Mystereh of the Recovereh.

post-8170-1242832692_thumb.jpg

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IWantToBelieve.jpg

Do not question the Great Mystereh of the Recovereh.

That picture really does sum up what's going on here.

You can't believe a way out of this one in the long run.

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to paraphrase that Lazlo Birinyi (he of the cartoon voice)

'sitting here waiting for the next shoe to drop... turns out it's a centipede'

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Won't it just be that people buying at the moment are getting significant discounts, it's still a buyers market and the indices keep on dropping? Wasn't there 30K of house purchases last month when two years ago it was 130K?

Everything is still looking bad. The green shoots are a joke.

Things will slide further. Hopefully in a year or so, nobody will be fooled by green shoots talk and asking prices won't do stupid things like go up.

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I expect to see the QE & bank bailout fake recovery kicking in quite strongly through to Spring. Then we'll see inflation coming to the fore. A double dip recession. Fun days ahead.

Edited by gruffydd

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I think QE is causing this, all this money has to go somewhere and i reckon this is what is causing the markets to spike.

This will in turn cause inflation , the only way out is inflation, the States have now admitted this. Beware holding cash I have said it many times on here!

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QE is a get out of jail quick card (but only on compassionate leave). It can't fail to work in the short term. Green shoots now, moulds and rusts coming soon.

Edited by gruffydd

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Savings rates rising, slowing the flow of money from savings to property. (Watch NSAI).

Rising repos coming to market.

The collapse of the Openmarket Homebuy Scheme, leading to:

Plenty of broken chains coming back to the market.

Some building Society collapses to scare folks into NSAI, meaning:

Banks and BS have no money to lend out.

A huge fall in the LR data (laggy, but most folks don't get that), leading to:

Lots of people realising the bottom is not in and pulling out of deals, leading to:

Lots more supply...

And then a HIPs Holiday, just to boost supply into the next leg down.

So, just supply and demand really.

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Jobs, tax, inflation and an increasing uncompromising high cost environment which will cause even more extreme pain.

Inflation will not help, it will absolutely blight the income statement all but a fraction of the population which is not going to be paid more to do a job that the rest of the world can do for less.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8058191.stm

Biggest union 'to cut workforce'

By Michael Millar

Business reporter, BBC News

Unison members protesting

Job cuts as well as pay are key issues for the union

Staff at Britain's biggest trade union are facing redundancy after its leaders ordered significant budget cuts, the BBC has learned.

The executive council of Unite the Union has ordered budget cuts of 20% for some departments, sources say.

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My prediction (just for the crack like): It will emerge that the Saudi's have been massively goosing their oil reserve figures.

peak oil is a myth, just like human effect's on global warming.

However, I think they will still use that peak oil thingy to up the poi to $200 p/b in 2010.

Let's see eh.....

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I think QE is causing this, all this money has to go somewhere and i reckon this is what is causing the markets to spike.

This will in turn cause inflation , the only way out is inflation, the States have now admitted this. Beware holding cash I have said it many times on here!

Not wage inflation, though.

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