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ralphmalph

Green Shoots Green Shoots

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I love the fact that they use 'not as bad as expected' as some sign of recovery, you see it all the time these days.

It's still pretty bad whatever way you look at it.

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I love the fact that they use 'not as bad as expected' as some sign of recovery, you see it all the time these days.

It's still pretty bad whatever way you look at it.

Yes, spinning "falling less fast" as a positive is bizarre to my mind, this argument is being used for house prices and everything else at present. My take on it is this :

If I jump out of a plane, I will eventually stop accelerating, and may even slow down now and again on a strong updraft.

However I will still make a mess when I hit the ground.

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Yes, spinning "falling less fast" as a positive is bizarre to my mind, this argument is being used for house prices and everything else at present. My take on it is this :

If I jump out of a plane, I will eventually stop accelerating, and may even slow down now and again on a strong updraft.

However I will still make a mess when I hit the ground.

Waht's more bizarre is that these people seem to think that after hitting the floor, being largely liquified, you'll then haul yourself up and run the 100m faster than Usain bolt.

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Yes, spinning "falling less fast" as a positive is bizarre to my mind, this argument is being used for house prices and everything else at present. My take on it is this :

If I jump out of a plane, I will eventually stop accelerating, and may even slow down now and again on a strong updraft.

However I will still make a mess when I hit the ground.

Your personal decision to jump out of the plane. Your personal decision may want the economy to do something but it is beyond your power.

The analogy could be that you are in a plane the engines fail, the plane drops, starts to accelerate the fall, then the pilots of the plane restart the engines the fall slows and then the plane starts to rise and then fly normally. Nothing you could do personally could affect that outcome, whatever your wishes.

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Yes, spinning "falling less fast" as a positive is bizarre to my mind, this argument is being used for house prices and everything else at present. My take on it is this :

If I jump out of a plane, I will eventually stop accelerating, and may even slow down now and again on a strong updraft.

However I will still make a mess when I hit the ground.

Or you're partner is cheating on you, but they are only sleeping with 5 of your best mates instead of the 10 before. Certainly cheers you up :lol:

Edited by Jim B.

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Fundamentals. If we learn only one thing from this affair it must be that productivity, trade surplus and government debt repayment really rather matter.

None of those are going well. We remain in as much mire as ever, despite bumps.

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Factory orders balance ticked up to -56 this month from -57 in April / Expected -50

Manufacturers' expectations for output rose to -17 from -32

So it's the rate of fall that will be slower than recent months, prices will fall and production will be down.

Eventually figures have to go up or you get something like RICS with -97% I think they reached.

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Guest X-QUORK

So, ten years of boom followed by only two years of bust? Is that sustainable?

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time to turn bull is it not malph ?

Spiv,

I have to say that I am wavering, I am on record on this site that I did not see falls of more than 30% to 35%. Also on record as saying that when 95% mortgages come back would be another sign. Also on record as saying that unemployment would be key as well.

2 out of my three indicators are greenish. I still think small decreases to year end, then next spring will see rises, but not rises of the 10% to 20% that we have seen in the past.

I am definately bullish on the UK economy, it just remains to be seen how high or low compared to the past unemployment peaks at.

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Guest theboltonfury

If someone can be bothered to dig out the thread on 2009 predictions back in mid 2008 it mainly has the same old posters preaching with certainty of full meltdown by now. Including loss of currency, martial law, no cash machines, one bank, etc etc.

Infact, what's happening is that we have a recession. Some houses are cheaper, some alot cheaper and some still the same.

However much the board doesn't like it, this situation is not close to how it was predicted to pan out by people here heralded as wise heads. All that happens now is the same old people just roll their 'predictions' back a year or so. We are definitley still in a Bear market but there are also definitely one or two small green shoots out there, or at the very least nothing that's going to kill us off anytime soon

I'm hopeful of a much cheaper house but don't see as anything like guaranteed

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Fundamentals. If we learn only one thing from this affair it must be that productivity, trade surplus and government debt repayment really rather matter.

None of those are going well. We remain in as much mire as ever, despite bumps.

they really do, and that is the sad thing.

nothing has actually been done to address any of the serious problems that we face, so any of the talk of green shoots is just blown smoke.

in a similar vein to house prices.

eventually rates have to return to a more reasonable level, so anything that happens before rates have actually returned to normal doesn't really matter.

even if there were raises in prices, they would most likely be lost in the vertiginous drops that are likely to happen once rates start going back up.

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Well, the way I see it, the global economic contraction just sees us going back in time. If GDP contracts by 10%, we're back to 1997. But 1997 wasn't so bad, was it?

I'm quite looking forward to going back to 1956 - peaceful roads, building our own ships, no Rupert Murdoch etc.

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Re: the analogies with planes and stuff.

I thought the effing plane (HPI) was going to crash so I bailed out (STRd) with a parachute (STR fund).

Seems I was right.

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http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/8516796

LONDON, May 20 (Reuters) - British manufacturing orders fell slightly more than expected in May but firms were more upbeat about the future than at any time since last September, a survey showed on Wednesday.

The Confederation of British Industry's monthly Industrial Trends survey showed the factory orders balance ticked up to -56 this month from -57 in April. Analysts had expected a bigger improvement to -50.

The balance measuring manufacturers' expectations for output over the coming months rose to -17 from -32, its highest level since September 2008.

"After scaling back production very sharply at the beginning of the year, manufacturers can see a glimmer at the end of the tunnel," said Ian McCafferty, chief economic adviser to the CBI. "They still expect manufacturing activity to fall, but at a much slower rate over the next few months."

Firms still expect to cut prices but at a slower rate than in April, with the balance at -13 in May versus -20 in April.

(Reporting by David Milliken; editing by David Stamp)

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they really do, and that is the sad thing.

nothing has actually been done to address any of the serious problems that we face, so any of the talk of green shoots is just blown smoke.

in a similar vein to house prices.

eventually rates have to return to a more reasonable level, so anything that happens before rates have actually returned to normal doesn't really matter.

even if there were raises in prices, they would most likely be lost in the vertiginous drops that are likely to happen once rates start going back up.

Interest rates for new mortgages are at rates far higher now with the BoE at .5 than they were when Boe was at 4.5%

So BoE raises rates to 4%-5% are mortgage rates going to 10%, er I think not.

The Boe will raise rates and mortage rates for new customers will stay roughly where they are.

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Well, the way I see it, the global economic contraction just sees us going back in time. If GDP contracts by 10%, we're back to 1997. But 1997 wasn't so bad, was it?

I'm quite looking forward to going back to 1956 - peaceful roads, building our own ships, no Rupert Murdoch etc.

...and England winning the world cup on home soil in 10 years time (well it'd have to be 2018, but near enough).

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UK Industrial production, much, much better than expected. -17 against -47 predicted (again more proof economists do not know what is going on).

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/cbi-uk-ma...drops-17-in-may

How they measure May when it is only halfway through is byoind me.

A bit strange. Forexfactory.com reports that the CBI Industrial orders expectation index released to day was -56 rather than the expected -50 (This number is based on a survey of about 550 manufacturers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of order volume expected during the next 3 months.) i.e. relative level of order volume was lower than expected.

The -17 versus -47 was the manufacturer's expectations for relative output in the next quarter. This is rather puzzling. Lower expected orders, but more sanguine about increased output...some sort of spin is going on here, but without taking time to understand the fine distinction between these metrics one is at a loss with what to think. The one thing I will say is that it is the former metric that is normally reported on forex sites and not the one reported by marketwatch.

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Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable
So, ten years of boom followed by only two years of bust? Is that sustainable?

Of course, it's all down to sentiment.

As I keep telling those blokes in their 20s with mortgages and children who are getting laid off coming to see me depressed.

"Chin up, all down to sentiment, you can keep everyone fed on a cheery disposition."

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However I will still make a mess when I hit the ground.

Neither you, or the plane, will hit the ground.

"they" will not let it happen.

If everyone beleives that the plane will stay in the air, then that is what will happen.

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