copper crutch Posted May 14, 2009 Author Share Posted May 14, 2009 I Have worked out prices have dropped around 4% in this area, prior to the recent rises in the Spring Bounce. http://www.espc.com/Buying/261301.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geneer Posted May 14, 2009 Share Posted May 14, 2009 Your bear-in-despair approach keeps confusing me.There's so much tasty bear fodder out there, even Goldilocks would be spoilt for choice. I prefer the term "born again bull." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ccc Posted May 14, 2009 Share Posted May 14, 2009 (edited) I Have worked out prices have dropped around 4% in this area, prior to the recent rises in the Spring Bounce. http://www.espc.com/Buying/261301.html Come on. You are being silly now. At the boom a one bedder in Gorgie was between 120-130k. This is what was PAID for them not what they hoped to get. Now ? The average sale price of a one bedder in Gorgie is 106k according to the ESPC. Fits in pretty perfectly with my own tracking. Today there are 10 you could DEFINITELY get for under 100k. Either they are fixed prices of 100k or less or offers over 89k etc.. On top of this there are another 10 you could PROBABLY get for 100k or less. These are all 110k fixed price max. Above this there are only 4. A fall from 125k to 105k is about 16%. Strange choice of example there.... There are only 4 one bedders in Gorgie wanting more than the one you choice. There are 22 one bedders on for less than this. Strange choice... Why didn't you choose this one and tell is all Gorgie one bedders had fallen 28%.... ESPC Gorgie 89k PS - 'Recent rises' in the Spring Bounce...Gorgie asking prices are lower than 6 months ago. Edited May 14, 2009 by ccc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geed Posted May 14, 2009 Share Posted May 14, 2009 I Have worked out prices have dropped around 4% in this area, prior to the recent rises in the Spring Bounce. http://www.espc.com/Buying/261301.html C.mon Crutchster what do you for a living? No one takes you seriously anymore on here, me included. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Muswell Hillbilly Posted May 14, 2009 Share Posted May 14, 2009 I Have worked out prices have dropped around 4% in this area, prior to the recent rises in the Spring Bounce. http://www.espc.com/Buying/261301.html Also note that this flat has been on the market for many, many months, which is surely indicative of its unreasonably high asking price. When did we have ESPC reference numbers in the low 260,000s? About a year ago? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TTD Posted May 15, 2009 Share Posted May 15, 2009 258000 - Mar 2008 262000 - Mid 2008 269000 - Sep 2008 272000 - Jan 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geneer Posted May 15, 2009 Share Posted May 15, 2009 (edited) C.mon Crutchster what do you for a living? No one takes you seriously anymore on here, me included. Why not be open about it Crutchster. Theres room for an EA on the forum. Be open and honest and I'm sure people would welcome your input, whether we agree or not. The bear-in-despair routine is wearing a bit thin. Edited May 15, 2009 by geneer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
copper crutch Posted May 15, 2009 Author Share Posted May 15, 2009 Why not be open about it Crutchster. Theres room for an EA on the forum. Be open and honest and I'm sure people would welcome your input, whether we agree or not. The bear-in-despair routine is wearing a bit thin. more bad news, the old supply and demand issue, just will get a bigger and bigger issue, as we all no almost all new build has stopped, and there will be very little new houses built in the near to medium future. This of course will result in a fresh bubble http://edinburghnews.scotsman.com/latestne...-BBs.5271176.jp ps sorry to burst your wee bubble but i am not an EA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DWM Posted May 15, 2009 Share Posted May 15, 2009 This of course will result in a fresh bubble Sorry, Crutchster, simply cannot see it. Where's the mortgage funds coming from following decline of RMBS's? BoS and RBS redundancies (plus Scottish inevitably declining public sector jobs once Eton Dave gets in next year) surely mean that, notwithstanding loads of interest, there ain't sufficient funds for the average punter (absent 30% deposit of course). All this talk of spring bounces seems to assume that Banks are going to increase lending and ignore LTV, silly income multiples etc. - forget it, it won't happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jie Bie Posted May 15, 2009 Share Posted May 15, 2009 more bad news, the old supply and demand issue, just will get a bigger and bigger issue, as we all no almost all new build has stopped, and there will be very little new houses built in the near to medium future.This of course will result in a fresh bubble http://edinburghnews.scotsman.com/latestne...-BBs.5271176.jp ps sorry to burst your wee bubble but i am not an EA. Do you not have a reply to ccc's post from 8.09pm last night? Seems to me he has done you a favour by finding plenty of flats in the area you want to buy for cheaper than you thought they were. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
copper crutch Posted May 15, 2009 Author Share Posted May 15, 2009 This of course will result in a fresh bubble Sorry, Crutchster, simply cannot see it. Where's the mortgage funds coming from following decline of RMBS's? BoS and RBS redundancies (plus Scottish inevitably declining public sector jobs once Eton Dave gets in next year) surely mean that, notwithstanding loads of interest, there ain't sufficient funds for the average punter (absent 30% deposit of course). All this talk of spring bounces seems to assume that Banks are going to increase lending and ignore LTV, silly income multiples etc. - forget it, it won't happen. Dont Agree there are loads of 90% ltv available, and there is even an 80% BTL Coming out in July, funding is not an issue as long as you have a good secure job. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
copper crutch Posted May 15, 2009 Author Share Posted May 15, 2009 Come on. You are being silly now. At the boom a one bedder in Gorgie was between 120-130k. This is what was PAID for them not what they hoped to get. Now ? The average sale price of a one bedder in Gorgie is 106k according to the ESPC. Fits in pretty perfectly with my own tracking. Today there are 10 you could DEFINITELY get for under 100k. Either they are fixed prices of 100k or less or offers over 89k etc.. On top of this there are another 10 you could PROBABLY get for 100k or less. These are all 110k fixed price max. Above this there are only 4. A fall from 125k to 105k is about 16%. Strange choice of example there.... There are only 4 one bedders in Gorgie wanting more than the one you choice. There are 22 one bedders on for less than this. Strange choice... Why didn't you choose this one and tell is all Gorgie one bedders had fallen 28%.... ESPC Gorgie 89k PS - 'Recent rises' in the Spring Bounce...Gorgie asking prices are lower than 6 months ago. i have already looked at that one its a dump, i offered 70 for it and was laughed at, they want 100k. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The McGlashan Posted May 15, 2009 Share Posted May 15, 2009 (edited) more bad news, the old supply and demand issue, just will get a bigger and bigger issue, as we all no almost all new build has stopped, and there will be very little new houses built in the near to medium future.This of course will result in a fresh bubble http://edinburghnews.scotsman.com/latestne...-BBs.5271176.jp ps sorry to burst your wee bubble but i am not an EA. Crutchster, the linked Scotsman article is utterly irrelevant to house prices. From the article: The push towards [housing the homeless in] B&Bs is part of the council's strategy to try and cut down on the number of people sleeping rough ahead of a 2012 Government deadline where it has an obligation to provide a home for everyone in the capital. By what mechanism do you think that the issues the authorities face in housing the homeless will ignite a new house price bubble? If the authorities increase the stock of housing, surely the invisible hand will ensure a corresponding drop in the price? If the authorities cannot increase the stock of housing, then the underlying situation remains the same. The bubble that risks being blown at the moment is an increase in B&B rates. You also say: there are loads of 90% ltv available, and there is even an 80% BTL Coming out in July, funding is not an issue as long as you have a good secure job. I have already stated to you that mortgage lending has more than halved since this time last year, and has fallen by two-thirds since the peak. Funding is indeed an issue. Good secure job? Unemployment in Edinburgh has risen by 69% YoY. Up 85% from the Dec 07 low. Up 23% on the quarter - much worse than UK (12%) and Scotland (16.5%). BTW, who is offering this 80% LTV BTL? They must be mad, the market has collapsed. According to the CML, BTL lending dropped 41% on the quarter; it has crashed to less than a third of the Q1 2008 level and is only a quarter of it's 2007 level. http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/media/press/2272 Edited May 15, 2009 by The McGlashan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
copper crutch Posted May 15, 2009 Author Share Posted May 15, 2009 Crutchster, the linked Scotsman article is utterly irrelevant to house prices.From the article: By what mechanism do you think that the issues the authorities face in housing the homeless will ignite a new house price bubble? If the authorities increase the stock of housing, surely the invisible hand will ensure a corresponding drop in the price? If the authorities cannot increase the stock of housing, then the underlying situation remains the same. The bubble that risks being blown at the moment is an increase in B&B rates. You also say: I have already stated to you that mortgage lending has more than halved since this time last year, and has fallen by two-thirds since the peak. Funding is indeed an issue. Good secure job? Unemployment in Edinburgh has risen by 69% YoY. Up 85% from the Dec 07 low. Up 23% on the quarter - much worse than UK (12%) and Scotland (16.5%). BTW, who is offering this 80% LTV BTL? They must be mad, the market has collapsed. According to the CML, BTL lending dropped 41% on the quarter; it has crashed to less than a third of the Q1 2008 level and is only a quarter of it's 2007 level. http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/media/press/2272 Roll up roll up, party hats and streamers on this site as regards the 80% BTL. http://www.ahuja.co.uk/property-news/ajays...age-on-its-way/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The McGlashan Posted May 15, 2009 Share Posted May 15, 2009 Roll up roll up, party hats and streamers on this site as regards the 80% BTL. http://www.ahuja.co.uk/property-news/ajays...age-on-its-way/ Ah, I see, hearsay sourced from a VI BTL blog... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geed Posted May 15, 2009 Share Posted May 15, 2009 Dont Agree there are loads of 90% ltv available, and there is even an 80% BTL Coming out in July, funding is not an issue as long as you have a good secure job. Fill yur boots dopey Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
copper crutch Posted May 15, 2009 Author Share Posted May 15, 2009 Crutchster, the linked Scotsman article is utterly irrelevant to house prices.From the article: By what mechanism do you think that the issues the authorities face in housing the homeless will ignite a new house price bubble? If the authorities increase the stock of housing, surely the invisible hand will ensure a corresponding drop in the price? If the authorities cannot increase the stock of housing, then the underlying situation remains the same. The bubble that risks being blown at the moment is an increase in B&B rates. You also say: I have already stated to you that mortgage lending has more than halved since this time last year, and has fallen by two-thirds since the peak. Funding is indeed an issue. Good secure job? Unemployment in Edinburgh has risen by 69% YoY. Up 85% from the Dec 07 low. Up 23% on the quarter - much worse than UK (12%) and Scotland (16.5%). BTW, who is offering this 80% LTV BTL? They must be mad, the market has collapsed. According to the CML, BTL lending dropped 41% on the quarter; it has crashed to less than a third of the Q1 2008 level and is only a quarter of it's 2007 level. http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/media/press/2272 Every day more bad news. :angry: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...howtopic=114632 the party is over hpi in the post :angry: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scunnered Posted May 15, 2009 Share Posted May 15, 2009 (edited) Good secure job? Unemployment in Edinburgh has risen by 69% YoY. Up 85% from the Dec 07 low. Up 23% on the quarter - much worse than UK (12%) and Scotland (16.5%).BTW, who is offering this 80% LTV BTL? They must be mad, the market has collapsed. According to the CML, BTL lending dropped 41% on the quarter; it has crashed to less than a third of the Q1 2008 level and is only a quarter of it's 2007 level. http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/media/press/2272 Monsieur, with these figures you are really spoiling us. Good stuff: keep it up. Addendum: and here's what the ESPC has to say for April: Latest Latest ESPC figures show that the average house price in Edinburgh now stands at £201,497 following an annual fall of 10.9%. Despite this year-on-year fall, the average house price in the Capital is now at its highest level since September 2008. The number of properties selling remains 60% down year-on-year, with the number of homes coming onto the market similarly constrained. The percentage of Fixed Price properties achieving the asking price reaches highest level since June 2008. There's a link to a PDF with more details, but they've cocked it up and linked to the February one instead. Looking at the corresponding URL for April doesn't take you anywhere. Edited May 15, 2009 by Scunnered Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bailey Posted May 15, 2009 Share Posted May 15, 2009 Dont Agree there are loads of 90% ltv available, and there is even an 80% BTL Coming out in July, funding is not an issue as long as you have a good secure job. There are 90% ltvs available - not loads though - but the rates are high around 6-7% and high arrangement fees. The criteria is also pretty rigorous and they will turn you down for the smallest thing. They can't seem to get a balance between lending to anyone and lending to no-one. Funding is an issue and is a reason many sales fall through. Also what is a secure job these days - solicitors, banking, BT ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foxtrot_Oscar Posted May 16, 2009 Share Posted May 16, 2009 Every day more bad news. :angry: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...howtopic=114632 the party is over hpi in the post :angry: Bore off Crutchster. Your faux bear whinging is becoming increasingly tedious. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ccc Posted May 16, 2009 Share Posted May 16, 2009 i have already looked at that one its a dump, i offered 70 for it and was laughed at, they want 100k. What people want for their property means sweet FA. I want 3 million pound for Liz Hurley to give me a blowy. I fear I may be waiting a while. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ccc Posted May 16, 2009 Share Posted May 16, 2009 There are 90% ltvs available - not loads though - but the rates are high around 6-7% and high arrangement fees. The criteria is also pretty rigorous and they will turn you down for the smallest thing. They can't seem to get a balance between lending to anyone and lending to no-one. Funding is an issue and is a reason many sales fall through. Also what is a secure job these days - solicitors, banking, BT ? So when rates are at thier lowest ever these people are paying 6-7%. When rates head back up to 5% ish these people will be goosed. 10-12% perhaps ? Ouch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The McGlashan Posted May 16, 2009 Share Posted May 16, 2009 Monsieur, with these figures you are really spoiling us.Good stuff: keep it up. Addendum: and here's what the ESPC has to say for April: There's a link to a PDF with more details, but they've cocked it up and linked to the February one instead. Looking at the corresponding URL for April doesn't take you anywhere. Here it is: http://www.espc.com/EspcPageMedia/MarketRe...THLY_200904.pdf Why do ESPC prices look like this: While the RoS data gives us this? They don't even appear to be related. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geneer Posted May 16, 2009 Share Posted May 16, 2009 Crutchster, the linked Scotsman article is utterly irrelevant to house prices. Why its almost as if the Crutchster justs want to keep a "Edinburgh Prices Rising Again" thread going, isn't it. Good find McGlashan. It would be good to stick it on the Edinburgh Latest thread. Let Crutchsters PR stunt thread fade away. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ccc Posted May 16, 2009 Share Posted May 16, 2009 Here it is:http://www.espc.com/EspcPageMedia/MarketRe...THLY_200904.pdf Why do ESPC prices look like this: While the RoS data gives us this? They don't even appear to be related. You remember we had a bit of chat recently about it ? Hamish was telling us the RoS data was only useful for developers and cash buyers Didn't give him the figures he was looking for more like. According to the BBC the RoS gives ALL transactions including repossesions/auctions etc.. ESPC does not. The number of sales are so low that I imagine this is having a larger effect than it would normally ? Big difference in average price. Q1 averages for the different trackers: ESPC - 196 RoS - 187 Nationwide - 229 The average sale price of a Nationwide property was 42 k different. MASSIVE difference. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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