Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

Str Sale Completed At Small Loss: Sw London


Recommended Posts

What are they basing that on?

Probably nothing but a hope to reduce the level of decline by trying to change expectations in the market. They have a very large mortgage book and house prices falling is not a good thing if you are a bank and are going to have lots of customers who will be in negative equity if this happens. Predicting a 30% drop will only make this more likely.

Better to predict an upturn to try and encourage people to buy and support the market. You can't seriously expect an institution that has a major vested interest in the market to give you an un biased forecast..

No one rational who analyses what is happening in the economy would be predicting an end to the decline soon.

On topic.

Good decision which will probably save you a lot of money if you buy back in at the right time in 2-5 years.

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 67
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

:lol:

And now, some light reading for anyone who just STR-ed to slit their wrists to..........

From todays Sunday Times. Lloyds banking group predicts houses only have another 6% to fall, and prices will be rising by the end of the year.

Shhhhhh, don't tell BTB's wife..... :lol:

Hamish, just out of interest, could you dig out some Lloyds predictions from 2 years ago? Assuming they were within a few percent of where we are now I will be happy to base all my ffuture decisions on their current predictions.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Absolutely: you need to add in either that or your imputed rent rather than the mortgage costs which will change your figures quite a bit.

On the other hand it's a bit like managing to drop your Lloyds asbestos liabilities for £10,000 in 1986. It does help you sleep at night to know you don't owe anyone any money ..

Link to post
Share on other sites
I thought I should come back and update my post of Feb/March 09 where I explained how I had recieved an offer for £480k on my house in Hampton Hill bought for £490k in Jan 07. This was in the context of wondering how low an offer I should accept based on going STR for a few years to ride out the HPC.

I had originally bought in 2007 despite having been a reasonably firm HPC believer.

Anyway my post earlier this year explaining how a pregnant woman had fallen in love with the place and offered a near-peak price attracted waves of derision including someone who called me 'stupid' and many who were sceptical. Most were non-believing and the view was 'wait till the deal is completed' - which I thought was fair enough.

So upon exchange of contracts yesterday at the agreed price I resolved to update the sceptics - but the post is gone, even though earlier ones or remain. Did HPC have some sort of wipeout? No posts are listed under my profile anymore despite me having made 1000s a few years ago.

Anyway I'm renting up the road in a slightly better house for £1650pcm so notwithstanding the hassle of moving, probably an OK result. But all my friends/relatives/colleagues/wife think I'm mad.

Am I??

Is this for real or are you having a laf. Lets get this correct you bought at the top of the market and are selling at the bottom. The moving costs alone would set you back c£30k.

I know that area well and I would say that prices are starting to increase already hence why you managed to sell at near what you paid. Unfortunatley in a couple of years you will have been priced out. Expect to see that property c£600k.

So when you take in account rental costs , moving costs and the loss of a couple of years you will be down c£150k on the property.

Lets hope you can make some serious gains out of the £200k equity you have taken out of the property. I would say you need to be looking at near 100% return over 2 years. Good luck! :lol:

Link to post
Share on other sites
Is this for real or are you having a laf. Lets get this correct you bought at the top of the market and are selling at the bottom. The moving costs alone would set you back c£30k.

I know that area well and I would say that prices are starting to increase already hence why you managed to sell at near what you paid. Unfortunatley in a couple of years you will have been priced out. Expect to see that property c£600k.

So when you take in account rental costs , moving costs and the loss of a couple of years you will be down c£150k on the property.

Lets hope you can make some serious gains out of the £200k equity you have taken out of the property. I would say you need to be looking at near 100% return over 2 years. Good luck! :lol:

It's possible (if unlikely) that you are correct .. My feeling would be that once the the banks (either on their own or by force) start losing people instead of "retaining talent" and the big management consultancies are forced to cut back, then prices will fall pretty seriously in that area ..

So far this has been very much a "Working class" recession with people like construction workers having to take paycut's/ not working .. There will be a big sea change when Middle class people start to lose jobs ..

The main thing is that he's put a floor under his losses .. even if he is (ROFL) priced out he at least did owe more money to the bank than his asset is worth in addition to losing his deposit .. (a 50% + fall is much more likely in my opinion) ..

Link to post
Share on other sites
It's possible (if unlikely) that you are correct .. My feeling would be that once the the banks (either on their own or by force) start losing people instead of "retaining talent" and the big management consultancies are forced to cut back, then prices will fall pretty seriously in that area ..

Think you will find that the banks have started losing people or do you not read the headlines.

So far this has been very much a "Working class" recession with people like construction workers having to take paycut's/ not working .. There will be a big sea change when Middle class people start to lose jobs .. See above

The main thing is that he's put a floor under his losses .. even if he is (ROFL) priced out he at least did owe more money to the bank than his asset is worth in addition to losing his deposit .. (a 50% + fall is much more likely in my opinion) ..

50% fall your be lucky. When will you bears understand that the market has fallen more in this crash than it did for the whole of CG1. We will not get a 50% fall (unless we get Hyper inflation) in which case I would rather have my money in property than cash as this will be worthless.

Edited by endofcrash2
Link to post
Share on other sites
Think you will find that the banks have started losing people or do you not read the headlines.

The people the banks have laid off do not live in Twickenham .. for the banks it's all about retaining highly skilled employees right now .. Thousands of call centre staff may go.

Given that almost everyone I know round here works in IT or Finance and none of them are being laid off .. a couple of "Gardening leave" but no actual lay-offs ..

Link to post
Share on other sites
The people the banks have laid off do not live in Twickenham .. for the banks it's all about retaining highly skilled employees right now .. Thousands of call centre staff may go.

Given that almost everyone I know round here works in IT or Finance and none of them are being laid off .. a couple of "Gardening leave" but no actual lay-offs ..

"Highly skilled" and "bank employee" don't seem right together somehow. Are you sure? Just kiddin, just kiddin.

Link to post
Share on other sites
The people the banks have laid off do not live in Twickenham .. for the banks it's all about retaining highly skilled employees right now .. Thousands of call centre staff may go.

Given that almost everyone I know round here works in IT or Finance and none of them are being laid off .. a couple of "Gardening leave" but no actual lay-offs ..

How do you know. There have been thousands laid off in the city. Look at Lehmans for example. I suspect that some live in Twickenham or surrounding area.

Edited by endofcrash2
Link to post
Share on other sites
How do you know. There have been thousands laid off in the city. Look at Lehmans for example. I suspect that some live in Twickenham or surrounding area.

Barclays got most of Lehmans senior people ..

I have yet to meet anyone who has been laid off from the financial sector ..

Link to post
Share on other sites
Barclays got most of Lehmans senior people ..

I have yet to meet anyone who has been laid off from the financial sector ..

Really? I could introduce you to a dozen or so in London, if you're keen, from ABN alone. Then there's Dresdner etc etc.

Link to post
Share on other sites
The people the banks have laid off do not live in Twickenham .. for the banks it's all about retaining highly skilled employees right now .. Thousands of call centre staff may go.

Given that almost everyone I know round here works in IT or Finance and none of them are being laid off .. a couple of "Gardening leave" but no actual lay-offs ..

I also know plenty who have been layed off from the finance sector. But the distribution of those being let go varies. For example alot seem to be "analysts" (fresh grads) who have just reached the end of their 2nd year/3rd year "programme" and are let go instead of being promoted to "associates". Then plenty of associates (aged 25-30) have been let go too. But it seems from Director upwards (40+) there's been relatively few layoffs, possibly because it is really only they who have all the knowledge and contacts and are the "highly skilled". The rest (associates, VPs, analysts) are just paper pushers and power-point creation machines.

I think that the properties that will suffer most are those flats/houses geared towards the 20-30 range working in finance, those renting out at approx £140-200/pw/per room as those rapidly disappear to live with mummy and daddy. In fact, looking at the Isle of Dogs rental market, rents for 2-beds have dropped from £400/week last summer, to about £300/week now, and still dropping.

I think the upper end of the market catering to the directors, MDs, etc will do well as not so many of those jobs have been lost, and even if they do lose their jobs they probably have massive savings or shares they can sel to keep living in their houses for a while (many also have families so its not an option to run home to mummy and daddy).

Link to post
Share on other sites
I also know plenty who have been layed off from the finance sector. But the distribution of those being let go varies. For example alot seem to be "analysts" (fresh grads) who have just reached the end of their 2nd year/3rd year "programme" and are let go instead of being promoted to "associates". Then plenty of associates (aged 25-30) have been let go too. But it seems from Director upwards (40+) there's been relatively few layoffs, possibly because it is really only they who have all the knowledge and contacts and are the "highly skilled". The rest (associates, VPs, analysts) are just paper pushers and power-point creation machines.

I think that the properties that will suffer most are those flats/houses geared towards the 20-30 range working in finance, those renting out at approx £140-200/pw/per room as those rapidly disappear to live with mummy and daddy. In fact, looking at the Isle of Dogs rental market, rents for 2-beds have dropped from £400/week last summer, to about £300/week now, and still dropping.

I think the upper end of the market catering to the directors, MDs, etc will do well as not so many of those jobs have been lost, and even if they do lose their jobs they probably have massive savings or shares they can sel to keep living in their houses for a while (many also have families so its not an option to run home to mummy and daddy).

All of this stuff about SW London somehow being different because its upper middle class citizens are immune to the new economic situation the country finds itself doesn't cut it for me. I concede that the area remains affluent and a decline in house prices will probably pan out over a longer time but there are just as many shut-up pubs/shops as anywhere else. All we are seeing is a lag effect, which also happened in other economic slides (as far as I know). It remains the case that, despite being in the very fortunate position of having a salary in the top few % of the UK population, and substantial existing capital, I can barely afford a modest terraced house (albeit bigger than average size) in whole swathes of the capital. As I believe Time magazine (or similar) recently said, London has become too expensive for its own middle-classes. This is unsustainable.

Most of the money going into buying property in the area or anywhere else remains recycled money from existing housing and every time a sale takes place at a lower price (a slow process) some of this evaporates.

I think it will be a slow but sure process, likely accelerating when higher envy taxes kick in over the next few years.

Link to post
Share on other sites
All of this stuff about SW London somehow being different because its upper middle class citizens are immune to the new economic situation the country finds itself doesn't cut it for me. I concede that the area remains affluent and a decline in house prices will probably pan out over a longer time but there are just as many shut-up pubs/shops as anywhere else. All we are seeing is a lag effect, which also happened in other economic slides (as far as I know). It remains the case that, despite being in the very fortunate position of having a salary in the top few % of the UK population, and substantial existing capital, I can barely afford a modest terraced house (albeit bigger than average size) in whole swathes of the capital. As I believe Time magazine (or similar) recently said, London has become too expensive for its own middle-classes. This is unsustainable.

Most of the money going into buying property in the area or anywhere else remains recycled money from existing housing and every time a sale takes place at a lower price (a slow process) some of this evaporates.

I think it will be a slow but sure process, likely accelerating when higher envy taxes kick in over the next few years.

No I never suggested it was immume .. and i totally agree .. it will fall pretty slowly .. HOWEVER we may have an interest rates induced "Cliff" moment at some point ..

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 1 month later...

So to bring the story bang up to date (if anyone's interested) the sale completed today at £480k and I've moved into the rented place (£1650pcm). Already a kitchen drawer has come off in my hand but it's a pleasure to phone the landlord's agents and put the problem onto them. No more trips to the local Wickes for a while. And the garden's lovely.

But . . . what to do with the money (£250k)? Plan is to buy in this area or maybe a bit nearer to London in 2 years.

Link to post
Share on other sites
So to bring the story bang up to date (if anyone's interested) the sale completed today at £480k and I've moved into the rented place (£1650pcm). Already a kitchen drawer has come off in my hand but it's a pleasure to phone the landlord's agents and put the problem onto them. No more trips to the local Wickes for a while. And the garden's lovely.

But . . . what to do with the money (£250k)? Plan is to buy in this area or maybe a bit nearer to London in 2 years.

BBC 2 10 pm tonight. Merryn SW will put you right about where to put your dough...

I've just put a large lump with BMidshires at 4.25% two year lock in. Fingers crossed..

Link to post
Share on other sites
BBC 2 10 pm tonight. Merryn SW will put you right about where to put your dough...

I've just put a large lump with BMidshires at 4.25% two year lock in. Fingers crossed..

Want something a bit racier. Otherwise how can I get back on the property ladder considerably further up than I stepped off it? Of course there's a risk I'll never get back on . . .

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 442 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.