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When Does A Hpc Bear Become A Hpc Bull ?


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Q. When does a HPC Bear become a HPC Bull ? ( i'll answer a question with 3 questions.)

A1. Is is when you buy your first home ?

A2. Is it when you re-enter the housing market ?

A3. Is it when prices drop 40% + from peak ?

Is there a point where you would consider yourself a Bull ? (You do want to make money on your new House Purchase don't you !!!!!! ????)

I consider myself a Bear, but as i have just bought a house 35% of its peak price, it does change my perspective a little bit.

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Q. When does a HPC Bear become a HPC Bull ? ( i'll answer a question with 3 questions.)

A1. Is is when you buy your first home ?

A2. Is it when you re-enter the housing market ?

A3. Is it when prices drop 40% + from peak ?

Is there a point where you would consider yourself a Bull ? (You do want to make money on your new House Purchase don't you !!!!!! ????)

I consider myself a Bear, but as i have just bought a house 35% of its peak price, it does change my perspective a little bit.

I guess it will be different for everyone depending on their personal view.

It doesn't help that a lot of people on this forum view a bear as someone who wants prices to go down rather than someone who expects them to go down.

I have seen a lot of people on here ask the question 'How can you be a bear when you own a house?'. Seems a weird question, but perhaps it is me that is wrong.

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precisely - perhaps this will help some of the BTL/bull crowd on here understand why they are so disliked.

I myself HAVE to buy within the next 18 months. Of course as soon as I do, I will WISH that house prices will go up. However I will fully EXPECT them to continue downwards.

And so I buy into a collapsing bubble KNOWING that I will lose money.

Thats what happens when you live in a country largely populated by spivs and idiots.

Longer I can hold out however - the more damage inflicted on spivs and idiots rather than myself.

Spivs know this, so the VI's want to drag it out as long as poss.

Idiots just agree with them.

Edited by sbn
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Q. When does a HPC Bear become a HPC Bull ?

The majority of bears: House price to earnings ratio of 3-3.5

Uber-bears: House price to earnings ratio of 2.0

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Not sure even when I buy, that I will become a bull. When I buy it will be to live in. If it goes up in value it will have no relevance to me as I don't intend on using it as a cash machine.

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Is there a point where you would consider yourself a Bull ? (You do want to make money on your new House Purchase don't you !!!!!! ????)

I bought beginning of the year and still class myself as a Bear.... I expect and welcome prices to fall further. So many good reasons to have affordable housing for most. I want my kids to do well at school and then naturally stand a chance of owning a home when the time comes... Fat chance of that today.

The answer to your question for me is...No!!! I bought my house for a home and do not intend making money on it. The price will only come into the equation if and when I sell in the future. I am fed up with buying, selling, renting and moving and intend this to be the last move for us. :rolleyes:

When the kids are older they may become interested in the value :lol:

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Q. When does a HPC Bear become a HPC Bull ? ( i'll answer a question with 3 questions.)

A1. Is is when you buy your first home ?

A2. Is it when you re-enter the housing market ?

A3. Is it when prices drop 40% + from peak ?

Is there a point where you would consider yourself a Bull ? (You do want to make money on your new House Purchase don't you !!!!!! ????)

I consider myself a Bear, but as i have just bought a house 35% of its peak price, it does change my perspective a little bit.

Hi The Cooler

Do you really mean 35% of its peak price? ie 65% fall in price? That's some fall! Or 35% off its peak price?

Out of interest - which area of the country did you buy?

M21er

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Q. When does a HPC Bear become a HPC Bull ? ( i'll answer a question with 3 questions.)

A1. Is is when you buy your first home ?

A2. Is it when you re-enter the housing market ?

A3. Is it when prices drop 40% + from peak ?

Is there a point where you would consider yourself a Bull ? (You do want to make money on your new House Purchase don't you !!!!!! ????)

I consider myself a Bear, but as i have just bought a house 35% of its peak price, it does change my perspective a little bit.

I think when prices have bottomed out, probably in several years time. Even then I don't think there will be another property bubble, but as prices tend to overcorrect on the downside, they will probably go up a bit. I think that even if I buy I'd still expect prices will drop, so not really sure why buying affects bear/bull status.

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The majority of bears: House price to earnings ratio of 3-3.5

Uber-bears: House price to earnings ratio of 2.0

And....

When implied yield (or real yield if rented out) has sufficient risk premium priced in. (Subjective, but somewhere between 8 - 12% gross)

When the natural credit cycle (not the fubared manipulated cycle) is somewhere near bottom and looks to be loosening soon).

Until then, I see no reason to tie up my capital on a pile of bricks.

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I think when prices have bottomed out, probably in several years time. Even then I don't think there will be another property bubble, but as prices tend to overcorrect on the downside, they will probably go up a bit. I think that even if I buy I'd still expect prices will drop, so not really sure why buying affects bear/bull status.

I've seen this said a few times. Out of interest, do you mean you don't think there will be another bubble in the immediate future (5-10 years), or do you mean you don't think there will be another bubble ever? I've seen the latter suggested a few time on here and it strikes me as strange. It reminds me of the "new paradigm" that we had during the dot-com bubble that would prevent prices from ever falling, or the "new paradigm" we had during this housing bubble that meant limited supply would drive prices up forever.

On the original question - I would like to become a bull exactly at the moment that the general population become bears because they're so sick of constant falls in prices...

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When unemployment is 3m+ and everyone is very worried about the roof over their head. Sentiment isn't anywhere near that bad yet. I think we'll be there in another 12 months' time.

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When the situation changes sufficently to fuel another boom, or provide a stable, rising market equal to inflation to a little bit higher.

At the moment there is still way too much debt around to fund another giant debt bubble, non housing costs are going up and wages are going down.

Got to do something about that lot first ;)

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When one thinks the property market is picking up. That might be about now, but it could all fall flat on its face again.

The stock market is certainly bullish now, which means that some of the billions that were wiped out in share values have been wiped back in again!

I think low interest rates have probably reduced the number of forced sellers, but how long can rates remain so low?

Edited by blankster
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I've seen this said a few times. Out of interest, do you mean you don't think there will be another bubble in the immediate future (5-10 years), or do you mean you don't think there will be another bubble ever? I've seen the latter suggested a few time on here and it strikes me as strange. It reminds me of the "new paradigm" that we had during the dot-com bubble that would prevent prices from ever falling, or the "new paradigm" we had during this housing bubble that meant limited supply would drive prices up forever.

On the original question - I would like to become a bull exactly at the moment that the general population become bears because they're so sick of constant falls in prices...

IMO there might be another house price bubble in the future, but not in near future (<10 years). I think we'll see house price falls for a while yet, and its doing to take a while for the debt to unwind.

Re: longer term, depends what you mean by bubble, there will always be economic cycles and it would be normal if house prices fell when a recession came. If there is another bubble likely to be around 2025 (ie 18 years from peak) - but if proper regulations of banks/lending etc this next "bubble" may be much smaller. Maybe there will be a bigger bubble in another 18 years after that. The 18 cycle makes sense to me - from Fred Harrison's "Boom Bust: House Prices, Banking and the Depression of 2010"

I am reading "When Bubbles Burst" by John P. Calverley I agree with what he says - ie will take a long time to have next house price bubble".

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I'm a Bear and will always remain a bear.

By definition, a bear is an animal who lives alone, bulls* run in a herd.

I sold my house at the very end of 2006 when the bulls were all buying and calling me nuts, I have gotten more interested as the markets have fallen and the herd have started to sell.

We are seeing more of the herd buying now but its a bull trap so as tempted as I am I'm not buying now, when the bulls turn and all start selling I shall wake up from my sleepy and start looking to buy.

* AKA (rather cruelly) Sheeple.

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I listed myself as a bear for two reasons: I thought house prices were going to fall, but I also thought the economy as a whole would suffer a severe downturn.

For all the reasons that have been discussed on here, I think we may have averted the cataclysm, and I'm now neutral - there have been a huge number of opportunities out there, although they're disappearing quickly. For example:

* Bank stocks - were seriously undervalued in Jan/Feb imho. Nationalisation aside (which couldn't really have happened), Barclays at 50p was ridiculous (although PanMuir Gordon today placed a target price of 40p on them) - they're now trading at around 300p. RBS traded from a low of about 10p to just under 50p today. People jumping in now could well be hit, but a 500% return on investment is astounding by any stretch of the imagination.

* Housing - people on here were talking about getting 20% discount straight off the asking price - how many people do you hear talking about that now. it may have already been factored into the price, but the point is the pendulum's swinging.

I am looking to move in the next 6 months, and am quite happy to take the possibility of a hit of 10% over the next couple of years, but I see the weighted return as being skewed positive for some of the reasons that the HPCers here fear such as inflation, and lending increasing.

I think we've hit the time when you have to re-evaluate - there's been a sizeable fall in prices in some areas, but they won't fall for ever.

ps: How do I change my HPC status?

Edited by whyohwhy
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