Signing Off

[Leonard Hatred]

I too agree with the OP in that some rather militant posters give this site an unsavoury flavour...

However, don't expect not to be challenged when you post statements like this - it's Sibley's 'prices will stay high because sellers will hold on' theory. And it's simply wrong. People who 'have to sell' are precisely the ones who will be setting the new market rate, not those who decide to 'get on with their lives' and not sell.

I notice that of all the bullish posts on here in the last few months, not one has contained a single cogent argument, backed up with hard facts, as to why the bubble will reinflate.

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

You are making a lot of assumptions about where the market is going. If even one of your predictions is out, then your stack of cards falls down.

But I wouldn't bet a penny on every one of your predictions coming true.

PS You also assume fixed rate mortgages, which are a minority in this country.

EDIT: simplified comment.

He assumes a 25 year fixed rate mortgage, not sure where you can those.

[Guest vicmac64]

Yes, governments are corrupt.

But I am pretty sure they have better things (adverts, tazers) to invest in, than a load of Indians doing social denial of service attacks on arbitrary forums.

Nah - all we'd get is ................. boot boot boot boot boot boot from the boot boot brigade from down under. They ring me from the nether regions of the world and I politely tell them its not 'boot boot' its get get off my phone now - I didn't ask you to call me, I don't want you to call me ever..... so please get on with your own life and I'll get on with mine - next thing you hear is 'but but' prounounced 'bute bute' and then nothing.........

casue I've hung up the phone

Edited May 4, 2009 by vicmac64

[Mixle]

Here it is. And it was for discussion a while back...

Take a property valued at 200k in 2007, on the market today at 160k (20%) drop.

At a typical rate of 4.99% repayment over 25 years, on a mortgage of 140k total repayment will be 245k.

FTB decides to wait for more drops following HPC advice.

Same property type valued today at 160k drops by another 10%, that's 144k, however, mortage rate went up to 5.99% so total repayment on a mortgage of about 130k will be 251k.

(In both case FTB paid about 10% deposit).

Conclusion:

Even if there is another 10% drop in the average house price, the hike in mortgage interest rate will make the overall cost of ownership bigger. And this is excluding the rent payment BTW.

Wrong. Your own figures:

Case A:

Property at 160k

10% deposit: 16k

Mortgage: 144k@4.99% for 25 years

Initial payment £841

Case B:

Property at 160k

Property drops 10% to 144k

10% deposit 14.4k

Mortgage: 129.6k@5.99% for 25 years

Initial payment £837

And you can assume that cost of rent is negligible, as by saving for a bigger deposit you will get a better LTV.

Edited May 4, 2009 by Mixle

[babesagainstmachines]

Economy is in bad shape yes. But people are still getting on with their lives, they will sell if they have to, and not at silly

prices like it is often suggested here.

You really are a total idiot. Silly prices are what houses have been going for since 2002. They are know becoming gradually more sensible.

[Valerius]

Wrong. Your own figures:

Case A:

Property at 160k

10% deposit: 16k

Mortgage: 144k@4.99% for 25 years

Initial payment £841

Case B:

Property at 160k

Property drops 10% to 144k

10% deposit 14.4k

Mortgage: 129.6k@5.99% for 25 years

Initial payment £837

And you can assume that cost of rent is negligible, as by saving for a bigger deposit you will get a better LTV.

Please explain to me how for a typical FTB's cost of rent + saving for a bigger deposit works out CHEAPER OVER TIME than paying outright for a mortgage, considering how long it will take for significant drops to come. [if it happens that is]

Look at the big picture for a start.

[Mixle]

Please explain to me how for a typical FTB's cost of rent + saving for a bigger deposit works out CHEAPER OVER TIME than paying outright for a mortgage, considering how long it will take for significant drops to come. [if it happens that is]

Look at the big picture for a start.

The margin in your mortgage numbers is small, but it favours not buying.

The margin in my assumption is going to be even smaller, depending on the earnings and the cost of the rent. So the number can go significantly either way depending on how much you save/rent.

For a start though, you can consider what saving does to your money in your example. The difference in rate on borrowing to saving is 5.99% (your mortgage) + 3% (current 1 year bond rate) = 8.99%. If you save an extra 14k, that's a 20% deposit and you get an 80% LTV. That might well give you the 4.99% rate again.

Edited May 4, 2009 by Mixle

[aussieboy]

i think you'll find that the entire internet is full of idiots, it attracts idiots. When people make posts reffering to how they should spend £300k+ etc or other grown up things they always smack of bogussness, thats because they are purporting to be people with lives, but most people with lives dont post that sort of stuff on forums, they're too busy leading their lives. Like the army of 'ex-pats'.... lol, Theres no way real people with real lives would live on a forum like this.

personally i put it down to the interweb police.

you mention threads on metal health and child poverty. I dont recall those threads, but I know thats how secret intelligence services operate, a constant barrage of subliminal messages that we see and absorb. Like spam, attempting to dissolve the true intelligent content and drive real thinking away.

blah blah blah.. it goes on and on, i could type for hours on it, but your right. Something is wrong but I dont think well be able proove it or stop it. I'd wager that all forums are heavily policed, probably flagged up with gradings by the intelligence services from Very Safe to terrorist Risk...... And spammed, attacked accordingly. You just have to observe. You understand human behaviour, your a human, but again and again your senses are insulted with obviously bogus actions....... Its everywhere. I could almost proove it,

Cant believe they havn't made a film on US/UK internet manipulation - the conspiracy...... Why not? too close to the bone me thinks..... Just too close for their liking.

Not to mention all the real trolls, and real spammers, and real bogus multi-poster users.

QED

[geoffk]

The fact is that i and some others always challenge the bnp scum on here and all the other idiots who post about dla and disability ect ect and life on benefits without knowing the facts.

They have a agenda and are a minority but a vocal one.all i have to say is if you keep challenging them with facts they hide.

Fight them don't hide from them...

[ʎqɐqɹǝʞɐɥs]

This site has been had. Look at some of the foaming mouth posters who now dominate this forum.

Most are post 07. Their posting rate suggests they have either nothing better to do or someone pays them to keep a potential political movement in check.

Paranoia ? perhaps but the world has changed. Forums like this present a great threat to vested interests beyond property.

Why are so many threads about DLA and people on the sick. a little on target for my liking. The recent thread on mental health sickened me as did the one on child poverty,.

Anyone brave enough to express anything but contempt for Chav sum is screamed down by the new bread of 40 a day posters.

HPC feels nothing like the better mannered days of Grumpy old man and even TTRTR, at least he was honest.

+1. That mental health thread is absolutely vile. How anyone could post such a thread is beyond me.

[Game_Over]

A lot of people like me realised that a crash was inevitable, but didn't post here before it happened because they didn't want to be seen as nutters.

I used to say to my father-in-law that when it happened it would be as bad as the 1930's, but TBH I didn't really think it would be that bad.

Turns out it was worse.

We are in a phoney war situation at the moment IMO

Government has stabilised the situation for the time being, but there is no getting away from the fact that public spending and consumer demand are going to have to contract by probably 20-30% over the next few years.

Anyone who thinks house price multiples will do anything other than fall in these circumstances is a complete fantasist in my view.

So far we have had a 30% fall and the sh*t hasn't even hit the fan yet.

Hundreds of thousands of well paid public sector jobs have got to go yet and when they do, house prices will fall even further - it's inevitable.

[Game_Over]

The fact is that i and some others always challenge the bnp scum on here and all the other idiots who post about dla and disability ect ect and life on benefits without knowing the facts.

They have a agenda and are a minority but a vocal one.all i have to say is if you keep challenging them with facts they hide.

Fight them don't hide from them...

They aren't the minority, 'they' are the majority

The public finances are effectively bankrupt

It's either cut spending on education, healthcare and social services OR

Stop paying people who could work to sit around doing nothing for the rest of their lives

Which is it to be?

because that IS the choice we now face

[Bardon]

+1. That mental health thread is absolutely vile. How anyone could post such a thread is beyond me.

Can someone please post a link to this thread cos I gotta see it.

[Game_Over]

Can someone please post a link to this thread cos I gotta see it.

Someone dared to make the suggestion that the millions of people in the UK now classed as disabled can't all possibly be unfit to work, especially hundreds of thousands of people classed as 'mentally ill'

At the end of the day, whether the 'loony left' like it or not, the country can no longer afford to pay millions of people to sit round doing nothing for the rest of their lives.

Someone is going to have to decide where massive cuts are going to be made - it's INEVITABLE.

[tim123]

Wrong. Your own figures:

Case A:

Property at 160k

10% deposit: 16k

Mortgage: 144k@4.99% for 25 years

Initial payment £841

Case B:

Property at 160k

Property drops 10% to 144k

10% deposit 14.4k

Mortgage: 129.6k@5.99% for 25 years

Initial payment £837

And you can assume that cost of rent is negligible, as by saving for a bigger deposit you will get a better LTV.

What percentage of the market took a 25 year fix at 4.99%?

0.01 % perhaps.

Most people took 2, 3, or 5 year fixes and will be remortgaging at today's rate. As they no longer have 10% equity in their property they won't be getting anything like the best available rates and will be paying well over the odds going forward.

tim

[Bardon]

Someone dared to make the suggestion that the millions of people in the UK now classed as disabled can't all possibly be unfit to work, especially hundreds of thousands of people classed as 'mentally ill'

Okay I just searched for it on the glorious search engine here and didn't come up with anything.

Not having read the topic I can only hazard a guess that it is a highly relevant, sensitive and high impact issue for the majority of posters on here.

Edited May 4, 2009 by Bardon

[Game_Over]

Okay I just searched for it on the glorious search engine here and didn't come up with anything.

Not having read the topic I can only hazard a guess that it is a highly relevant, sensitive and high impact issue for the majority of posters on here.

It's relevant because the public finances here are effectively bankrupt

Big cuts are going to have to be made in benefits, so it is not really surprising that people in receipt of these benefits and who therefore have plenty of time on their hands will post on websites like this defending the Status Quo.

One way or another massive social changes are coming IMO and people on the left had better start getting used to the idea.

[Bardon]

It's relevant because the public finances here are effectively bankrupt

Big cuts are going to have to be made in benefits, so it is not really surprising that people in receipt of these benefits and who therefore have plenty of time on their hands will post on websites like this defending the Status Quo.

One way or another massive social changes are coming IMO and people on the left had better start getting used to the idea.

Okay thats deep, I shall play my cards close to my chest on this one, around here.

[Fully Detached]

I can't be arsed to read all that. Would somebody mind telling me if it's ok to call them lazy ******ing nutters, or if we have to be caring and sharing now? Things move so fast here, I struggle to keep up.

Ta.

[Game_Over]

I can't be arsed to read all that. Would somebody mind telling me if it's ok to call them lazy ******ing nutters, or if we have to be caring and sharing now? Things move so fast here, I struggle to keep up.

Ta.

The question is, do we sack someone like a nurse or care home worker

Or do we think someone with depression should work

It's a simple choice and one those on the left now have to face.

[no_more_bull]

This site has been had. Look at some of the foaming mouth posters who now dominate this forum.

Most are post 07. Their posting rate suggests they have either nothing better to do or someone pays them to keep a potential political movement in check.

Paranoia ? perhaps but the world has changed. Forums like this present a great threat to vested interests beyond property.

Why are so many threads about DLA and people on the sick. a little on target for my liking. The recent thread on mental health sickened me as did the one on child poverty,.

Anyone brave enough to express anything but contempt for Chav sum is screamed down by the new bread of 40 a day posters.

HPC feels nothing like the better mannered days of Grumpy old man and even TTRTR, at least he was honest.

Totally agree. Funny thing, I was planning to post a similar topic today, after I took yet another uncalled for beating yesterday. The old "how dare you imply an upward trend, you must be a troll" brigade... Funny thing that they don't freely attack a veteran or guru poster, as pointed out by Bardon earlier in this thread.

Anyway, I can carry on ranting and lowering myself to the personal attacks that people "heroically" do behind the safety of their PC, but what's the point.

I really had fun here, learned a lot and laughed a lot. Admired the top posters such as RB, Goldfinger, BlooLoo and many others (apologies for leaving anybody out...), but it is time to go, as the dry, sharp wit has been replaced by the foaming, personal attacks.

Adios amigos.

[Frank Hovis]

Can someone please post a link to this thread cos I gotta see it.

There you go.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...=113221&hl=

I stand by my position which a minority - step forward shakerbaby - choose to see as an assault upon people with serious mental illness rather than a complaint about the low level of problem that counts as disabled. Perhaps this makes them feel holier than thou and it goes to prove that you see what you want to see.

And can the OP shut the door on his way out, there's a draught.

[grumpy-old-man-returns]

This site has been had. Look at some of the foaming mouth posters who now dominate this forum.

Most are post 07. Their posting rate suggests they have either nothing better to do or someone pays them to keep a potential political movement in check.

Paranoia ? perhaps but the world has changed. Forums like this present a great threat to vested interests beyond property.

Why are so many threads about DLA and people on the sick. a little on target for my liking. The recent thread on mental health sickened me as did the one on child poverty,.

Anyone brave enough to express anything but contempt for Chav sum is screamed down by the new bread of 40 a day posters.

HPC feels nothing like the better mannered days of Grumpy old man and even TTRTR, at least he was honest.

Hi hankdd,

I remember you also, thanks for the kind mention.

I can totally understand your pov & unfortunately ALL sites go the same way eventually.

Even I thought about stopping posting again just recently for the same reasons.

It will always be a battle of notoriety vs moderation, notoriety always wins unless you have paid membership with verified details.

Good Luck.

[Bloo Loo]

snip

• just because a poster is wealthy, qualified, successful, good looking, master of their trade, been posting a long time, in itself doesn't make them senior to another poster although I do see a bit of of that around here

you were a poor team leader, you fell at the first hurdle, and you are Australian.....Your fired!

[BubbleBlower]

Please explain to me how for a typical FTB's cost of rent + saving for a bigger deposit works out CHEAPER OVER TIME than paying outright for a mortgage, considering how long it will take for significant drops to come. [if it happens that is]

Look at the big picture for a start.

In the last thread this came up in you consistently dodged one question: where are these 25-year fixes that you are using as a basis for comparison? You know that the effect of that extra 1% of interest over the 20-years outside of a normal 5-year fix completes dwarfs the effect of renting for a year and yet you keep dodging the question:

What 25-year fixes are you referring to?