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Sybil13

Cebr Expect The Housing Market To Crash Soon

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Right... I've been reading the posts on this site for a while now and I'm still not sure what the market is likely to do. But now I've worked it out. Check the Daily Express headlines and assume the opposite. So when they predict a crash in prices then it's time to buy :P

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HPC was also killed for a second time on July 28th 2008:

e15057645.jpg

we could have a lot of fun with old express headlines charting the denial of a housing market crash.

The postcode area that i'm looking at is completely dead at the moment. there was a little flurry of activity a few weeks ago, as houses that had been chased down in price were sold, highly likely at reduced offers.

The last couple of weeks the market looks to be very much in the doldrums...i'm guessing these articles are looked at by the VI's as a timely boost, in lieu of no financial bailout good news stories and initiatives which have been coming thick and fast from the govt. since sep last year through to the budget this.....now it's quiet on all fronts, and people appear to be settling down for steady albeit unspectacular MoM declines the VI's need to time a recovery for Q1 2010.

Well they've got to have something to shout about.

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Guest pioneer31
HPC was also killed for a second time on July 28th 2008:

e15057645.jpg

I don't believe it!

Myleene to replace Carol Vorderman?

How's her arithmetic?

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Right... I've been reading the posts on this site for a while now and I'm still not sure what the market is likely to do. But now I've worked it out. Check the Daily Express headlines and assume the opposite. So when they predict a crash in prices then it's time to buy :P

they don't print a headline if they've got no housing greenshoots to cling to, they'll go to box b of the editors selection of predictable headlines to grab the attention of braindead express readers, box c is reserved for stories on labour stealth taxes it appears. box b now appears to be susan boyle [although i tend to walk past the newspaper counter these days so i have only a vague recollection, may have been another desmond rag]

the express sheeple aren't interested in reading gloom about house prices....just as sybil won't read a cebr report unless it predicts 36-40% falls ;)

the cebr, like most housing commentators have to keep rejigging predictions, perhaps cebr have been more consistent, but they don't appear to have a greater insight than anyone else who has access to the data.....one reason to take cebr data with a pinch of salt is the trotting out of new build housing shortage for medium term price pressures. we've proved that to be something of an erroneous argument....sentiment AND access to credit have a far bigger impact on the uk market than shortage of new builds. commentators try and fabricate a supply problem, when presumably there wasn't a supply problem just three years ago when in my postcode areas terraced house sales were staggering highly for the quarter. you can't tell me housing demographics have changed that much in a few years....

if there's a supply shortgage it's because of speculative buyers holding on to properties they were looking to make a killing on by now....or it's supply shortage becuase of less scope to make mega profits on capital appreciation.

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Right... I've been reading the posts on this site for a while now and I'm still not sure what the market is likely to do. But now I've worked it out. Check the Daily Express headlines and assume the opposite. So when they predict a crash in prices then it's time to buy :P

Hi Catman, despite all Hamish says about me, just like yourself I am here trying to work out what the market is likely to do. I am "a bear of little brain" and find it difficult at times to follow threads and at other times give up as bulls and bears fight it out for page after page. But stick around because there are good threads and if its been in the news then it will be here. Hope you had a good bank holiday

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I don't believe it!

Myleene to replace Carol Vorderman?

How's her arithmetic?

I don't think it's her arithmetic they're - er - ramping. It's her figure(s).

db

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I posted thoughts on this on the blog, but to repeat one point that hasn't been mentioned here: it all depends on your headlines. The BBC website has an article on the same report, which is headed, "Home values 'down 28% from peak'" Not dramatic, by HPC standards, but not a ringing cry of Onward and Upward either. It gets better:

UK property prices will have fallen by 28% from their peak before the market downturn ends, the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) has said.

The economists' group predicted prices would reach their trough early next year, but said there was little chance of real price growth until 2013.

<snip>

The CEBR added that improved conditions in the housing market suggested that property prices only had about a further 8% left to fall.

But it warned that a "sluggish recovery" in the real economy meant prices would only rise by 6% during 2010 and 2011.

It predicted the average cost of a home would rise by only 3.1% between the final three months of 2009 and the final quarter of 2010, with a further 2.5% increase the following year.

The gloomy forecast came despite an anticipated increase in mortgage approvals, and improvement in credit conditions.

<snip>

However calling the bottom of the market was "slightly premature" said the one of the CEBR report's authors, Benjamin Williamson.

"Worsening conditions in the labour market and the wider economy seem likely to counter-balance historically low interest rates and slowly improving credit conditions," he added.

And managing economist at the CEBR, Ben Read, added that house prices were "likely to remain in the doldrums for some time as what is likely to be a slow recovery in the real economy translates into weak wage growth and stubbornly high unemployment - factors that will put a fairly heavy lid on house price inflation."

Now me, I don't call that the end of HPC - and the most telling bits were quoting the actual report. And the Beeb calls is a "gloomy forecast". We might, here, call it a cheering forecast for those wanting house prices to go down. Still more, I think, for those of us who think that it would be really good if they would stabilise at a low figure for years to come.

The point is, however, that the Beeb has a totally different take on this to the Express (a rag to which I have hitherto had little exposure - which seems like a good state to return to) and sees the same report as signalling a continued and sustained fall - albeit a little less precipitately than has been the case in recent months.

Never mind having problems working out which economists are right about the housing market - we have to work out who right about what the economists said.

db

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  • 407 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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