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Calling All 'doom & Gloomers'


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Hertfordshire is prime stockbroker belt. A lot of city workers have their family homes here. There is also high employment generally throughout the county.

As such, it is not representative of the whole country. There are stable, wealthy middle class people here who are perhaps a little savvier and certainly a lot luckier than many others in the rest of UK.

In a crash, many of these wealthier, established, older people probably won't be affected too greatly. They might feel the pinch, but we cannot expect that everyone will be queuing in soup kitchens. In the Great Depression, not everyone was reduced to utter poverty. But lots of people were.

Even if 10% of people are forced to sell at a loss, and there is 10% unemployment, that is somekind of serious recession or crash.

Edited by MrsMole
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I often wonder what it would be like if you could get a quarter of an acre for £10k and stick up a house for say £40k.

That would be France.

I don't know what this dogbox is going on about. The majority of people in this country live in cities or in grotty dormitory towns like Swindon. A few people live in this rural eutopia that he describes, the rest are slaving away to pay off mortgages and debts.

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Hertfordshire, great place to live.

Live in small freehold property with garden, out of choice.

-Less to clean

-Less to maintain

-Less council tax

-Mortgage reducing

-Great neighbourhood/transport facilities

-Ideal property for 1st time freeholders

-Ideal property for downsizers

Goal to be mortgage FREE

Goal to save. Wish to buy freedom of time not material possessions.

Goal once free from all borrowings, will take time off to travel.

I agree entirely. Every pound I spend is more time I have to work. Life is too short for that. I grew up in Herts but I've travelled around a bit and I think there are a lot of other nice places in the UK. It is work that limits your choice of home, not lack of nice areas. I am working abroad for the next couple of years but I will be back in Britain for good afterwards. It isn't such a bad place.

La frugalista

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Im lucky to earn a very high income (£140k last year not including 2 property sales), yet our house, a 5 bed detached backing onto fields is modest compared to at least 1/2 the stock in all directions. So shed loads of people must be earning a lot more and Blighty is doing mighty.

This is a clear demonstration the level of wealth swishing around.

So you're saying that you earn an income higher than 99.5% of the population, yet you see houses in all directions worth far more than yours, therefore conclude from this that most (or many) other people must also be earning well inside the top 0.5% earnings level.

This proves that property is overpriced, not the opposite. If (just for the sake of argument) you think that 50% of properties within a considerable radius to your own are more valuable than yours, yet your earnings put you well within the top 0.5% of eaners, does that not prove to you that property as a whole is substancially, and unsustainably, over-vauled?

If you see an ordinary person in a fairly average 3-bed semi that is now being marketed for £299,000, would you assume:

A - That person has a substantial income, and yet used it to by a very mediocre property...

or

B - That person bought that ordinary property before the current bubble (pre-2000), when such an ordinary property was affordable to someone on an ordinary income (and probably priced well below £100,000).

Edited by RJG18
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M, you make it sound like a conspiracy, but its simply the case that our green, pleasant and stable land is too small, hence a long - term perpetual high demand equlibrium.

Im lucky to earn a very high income (£140k last year not including 2 property sales), yet our house, a 5 bed detached backing onto fields is modest compared to at least 1/2 the stock in all directions. So shed loads of people must be earning a lot more and Blighty is doing mighty.

This is a clear demonstration the level of wealth swishing around.

No, there's plenty of land for all - but idiots like the Council for the Protection of Rural England do the aristocracy's work for them by making sure our precious fields are never built on. The masses live huddled in the cities living (literally) on top of each other while outside each city green fields spread for miles in every direction - and most of them have nothing in them but grass - no crops and no animals.

The wealth in evidence around you ....

Some is illusory - as we said a lot is borrowed money

Some more is illusory - a big detached house built for 2k in the 1920s might be worth a million now. Where did the extra 998k come from? Did someone print it?

If everyone in the UK tried to sell their house at once - would there be enough money in the UK to pay for all the houses? Is there enough money in the world if you added up the value of the whole of the UK housing stock.

I can't help thinking a lot of the wealth you mention is an illusion one way or another and, in a HPC and recession, a lot of it will 'disappear' as easily as it 'appeared'. This wealth wasn't earned and like the dot com millions can go as quickly as it came.

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I notice masses of very expensive desirable property on my travels, it cant all be down to borrowed money.

Specifically if I drive to most parts of Southern & Central Hertfordshire I see endless (and I don mean endless) large expensive homes in every direction located in well healed villages and also Towns. We visit freinds in Epsom, Surrey and see the same thing, mile after mile of lovely expensive property.

Im sure its probably the same story throughout the home counties.

I of course see a few poor areas with undesirable property but the actual land mass seems vastly less than that occupied by the wealthy set.

Surely this informs us that we are in fact a very wealthy nation and that all the bear stuff is just a tad overdone? B)

What do you mean by wealthy?

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If everyone in the UK tried to sell their house at once - would there be enough money in the UK to pay for all the houses? Is there enough money in the world if you added up the value of the whole of the UK housing stock.

That would require in the region of £45 Trillion.

(based upon the ODPM's estimate of the average house being currently worth around £180,000, and there being around 25 million properties in the UK.

UK GDP is around £1 trillion.

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I understand that over 50% of households in work have less

than a month's savings on which to live.

In fact, it appears that most households (whatever the size

of income) are spending all or more of their income annually.

Their only real asset is their home, which is now becoming

an inflated asset - or a dwindling asset - probably not worth

what they think it is worth. (Just try selling it.)

This does not spell "wealth" to me.

Since July 2004, when debt went over the trillion mark,

the consumer has borrowed another 88 Billion.

(current debt total is 1.088 trillion).

So, in the past year, debt has increased by 9%.

This is unprecendented.

In the eighties crash, available credit was one of the reasons for

re-possessions. Redundancy itself did not lead to repos;

if provision had been made for the worst-case scenario, then

families could ride out the storm.

But now, like then, few have enough in the bank to cover the

average 7 months that it takes to become re-employed.

Also, unlike then, even fewwer have accident/redundancy/illness

insurance to cover their mortgage.

Redundancy/illness/accident/bereavement/divorce do not directly

lead to repos, it is debt that leads to repos.

People just do not seem to think far enough ahead, or to have the

necessary caution to live well within their means (which is true "wealth").

In short, very few households have the necessary provison to

cope with a downturn in the economy.

And how often do we see a downturn ?

Why, regularly.

And we are entering one right now.

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Dogbox,

Not leaning towards bullish views again are you? Just because you saw some nice houses that were probably all built 100 years+ in the past??

Let me spell it out:

A house is not wealth or money.

A house is an object that has a market value that can go up or down.

People with these large houses can only convert that market value into wealth while prices are high if they STR or downsize.

Otherwise they have no more wealth from their home, as it is all tied up in that one object. And if the market carries on down then it will gradually become worth less and less.

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And another thing ----

The Government is also in debt.

This administration has inflated itself out of all proportion.

True, it has reduced benefit payment by swelling the private

sector, but this is only a shor-term benefit, it has a long-term

effect, which we are now entering.

Mr Brown is now reported to be facing a substantial shortfall

in his projected income for this year.

Basically, the Treasury is living above its means.

And when this happens, Mr Brown has no alternative..

He must - and he will - put up taxes.

Which means we all have less income.

Which means the majority of us will fall further into debt.

N'est-ce pas ?

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Hi dogbox

Wealth is a funny old thing you can’t see it. Don’t be fooled by looking at assets because without knowing the underlying liabilities they mean nothing. With companies its easy they have a published balance sheet. Individuals don’t have to show their net and to be honest often don’t know it themselves. When you strip out the mortgages, credit cards and car loans an awful lot of high flyers are worth next to nothing.

Working in the insolvency field for the last couple of decades has made me very sceptical of “Flash Harry’s” with the big house and BMW in the drive conversely a lot of very wealthy people don’t show any “front” at all.

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"June 2 (Bloomberg) -- Warren Buffett, the second-richest American, lives in a $700,000 (£360k), five-bedroom house on a maple- lined street in Omaha, Nebraska. Neighbor Mike McMullen says he sometimes sees Buffett, 74, warming up his Lincoln on winter mornings. The license plate reads: ``Thrifty''.

Four decades after Buffett bought Berkshire Hathaway Inc., now a holding company worth $129.9 billion,..... Berkshire had $46.7 billion in cash as of March 31 (2005), more than any other company traded on the New York Stock Exchange at the time, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Buffett takes just $100,000 a year in salary. He controls 40 percent of the company's Class A shares, worth about $40 billion. "

Bloomberg, June 2nd 2005

You can't judge a book by its cover dogbox.

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"June 2 (Bloomberg) -- Warren Buffett, the second-richest American, lives in a $700,000 (£360k), five-bedroom house on a maple- lined street in Omaha, Nebraska. Neighbor Mike McMullen says he sometimes sees Buffett, 74, warming up his Lincoln on winter mornings. The license plate reads: ``Thrifty''.

Four decades after Buffett bought Berkshire Hathaway Inc., now a holding company worth $129.9 billion,..... Berkshire had $46.7 billion in cash as of March 31 (2005), more than any other company traded on the New York Stock Exchange at the time, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Buffett takes just $100,000 a year in salary. He controls 40 percent of the company's Class A shares, worth about $40 billion. "

Bloomberg, June 2nd 2005

You can't judge a book by its cover dogbox.

Learn something new every day!

What a waste of money - even if he doesn't feel the need to spend it on himself or family (does he have family??), you'd have thought that he might spend it on public spirited gestures. New library, new art gallery etc.

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Just thinking about this "lots of wealth judging by there's plenty of big houses" thing.

Is there anywhere, a breakdown of total UK housing stock by numbers in each Council Tax band?

That, although crude, would put some numbers on this.

I'll go looking. ODPM start I imagine.

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All the bears are saying (well, most of them) is that there's no way of justifying that all of these posh pads (or any other houses) are worth three times what they were ten years ago.

No, thats not the point. Many bears on here every day highlight all sorts of economic bad news topics and stories that could leave one to conclude the whole country is basically fukked.

I see sunstantial wealth all around me, it cant all be fake and unhinged over - indulgence.

Given that common sense informs us that a goodly percentage of this apparent 'visible' wealth must be real, the true picture of the UK might be far rosier than many on this forum would have us beleive.

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No, thats not the point. Many bears on here every day highlight all sorts of economic bad news topics and stories that could leave one to conclude the whole country is basically fukked.

I see sunstantial wealth all around me, it cant all be fake and unhinged over - indulgence.

Given that common sense informs us that a goodly percentage of this apparent 'visible' wealth must be real, the true picture of the UK might be far rosier than many on this forum would have us beleive.

I'll have a dose of whatever you take please dogbox, to help me see this wonderful country of ours with its chavs, violence, debt, high house prices, job insecurity, low wages, long hours etc in the same positive light you see it in.

There is no doubt there is a lot of money in this country. But it's appropriated by a small percentage of the population. Many of the rest are in drudgery.

You're not in the rose tinted spectacle mail order business by any chance? I'll have 4 pairs for my and my immediate family (my kids need the really good ones by the way) and I'd like you to get in another 349,996 so all 350,000 who leave the UK each year for a better life - most of whom from what I see on that ex-pats forum CANNOT WAIT to get out of here - can slip on their specs and see what a wonderful wealthy, happy country this really is. (You had better make mine the ones with the strongest lenses available.)

Edited by Marina
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To read this site, the user might conclude the UK is about phantom wealth on the back of borrowing and about slave wages.

However, when I drive home I see a differnet world of quiet contentment, whispering wealth, gravel drives and Tennis skirts. Wealth everywhere - so a good sign for all of us B)

Those neat lawns, tennis skirts and nice houses were all there in the late 80s too. Didn't stop the housing market going tits up.

So your point is...?

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No, thats not the point. Many bears on here every day highlight all sorts of economic bad news topics and stories that could leave one to conclude the whole country is basically fukked.

I see sunstantial wealth all around me, it cant all be fake and unhinged over - indulgence.

Given that common sense informs us that a goodly percentage of this apparent 'visible' wealth must be real, the true picture of the UK might be far rosier than many on this forum would have us beleive.

Dogbox - It's clear that the Baby Boom generation have done well out of UK PLC but even they are worried about Pension provision.

As for the rest of us we have little chance of emulating the comparative wealth of our parents and will pay for their indulgence. We pay for our education and our pension funds are non existent and we compete with economies that pay 1/5th of our salaries. The TRUE picture of the UK may be far worse than you are prepared to accept.

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Hertfordshire is prime stockbroker belt. A lot of city workers have their family homes here. There is also high employment generally throughout the county.

As such, it is not representative of the whole country.

At last a sensible reply.

Ok, but on a recent visit to Wiltshire I saw endless miles of prime residential living again, mostly villages. The smell of old money wafted through the meadows, as I sipped some anicient Beer, well to do retired types, immaculate lawns, picture box cottages, is this the real England?

Same in Surrey, Sussex, Hants and even large parts of Essex - these are just the ones Ive visited.

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  • 439 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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