Wait & See Posted May 7, 2009 Share Posted May 7, 2009 This must be a buy signal Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravity always wins Posted May 7, 2009 Share Posted May 7, 2009 Not just the Chinese.My fear is that all this bailout/Tarp etc chopper money (which GOVT's will not be keeping track of) is going to go straight into the commodity markets to create a bubble in basic human needs off-setting the losses from the housing bubble. The banks/crooks etc, will have not only stolen YOUR MONEY, but will use it to make YOU poor. By poor I mean hungry, actually hungry. Agreed. I hope my skills and investments will prevent this affecting my family too deeply. Time will tell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest มร หล Posted May 7, 2009 Share Posted May 7, 2009 Agreed.I hope my skills and investments will prevent this affecting my family too deeply. Time will tell. Yes me too. WTI $57.95 up 3.1% today. Where's ParticleMan, Noel and EDM when you need 'em? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pl1 Posted May 7, 2009 Share Posted May 7, 2009 Guess there is some truth to the adage buy at maximum fear. Who the hell would have bought equities back in March? Not me. Yet if you had done you would have made a mint. Does anyone know if Peter Schiff's model is working at the moment (lbobmibm)? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joey Buttafueco Jr Posted May 7, 2009 Share Posted May 7, 2009 Guess there is some truth to the adage buy at maximum fear. Who the hell would have bought equities back in March? N Me. No different from any other month Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest มร หล Posted May 7, 2009 Share Posted May 7, 2009 Short term clearly volumes of money affect prices. However, if (like oil) there is too much of the stuff then after all the storage options become used up and certain production is wound down where it can, you are left with the option of clearing stocks or the ongoing costs of storage. If expectations are that consumption will rise within a reasonable period of time then they may be happy to bear those costs. But if that day keeps going back into the future then the market will fall back to its fundamental value.What I'm trying to say in a very long winded way is that with commodities that are utilised, their value has to revert to fundamentals at some point. (But I suppose you know that. Granny and eggs springs to mind) EDIT: The author is currently considering shorting oil. http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/05/07...still-going-up/ Do you think the oil taps will be severely turned in the off direction? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grumpy-old-man-returns Posted May 7, 2009 Share Posted May 7, 2009 Me. No different from any other month I bet you're not shorting anything at the moment though ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joey Buttafueco Jr Posted May 7, 2009 Share Posted May 7, 2009 I bet you're not shorting anything at the moment though ? Never have apart from small flutter here and there for fun. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grumpy-old-man-returns Posted May 7, 2009 Share Posted May 7, 2009 Never have apart from small flutter here and there for fun. I know you're a serious trader. Do you think that the FTSE will crash badly from here ? (this is a closed question btw ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParticleMan Posted May 7, 2009 Share Posted May 7, 2009 Who the hell would have bought equities back in March? Not me. Yet if you had done you would have made a mint. I bet this guy's pretty chuffed... I'm really warming to this idea; the flashpoint may well be the usual tax-loss selling and portfolio rotation arriving a little earlier than usual this year - I figure this will eviscerate what little optimism remains, putting a selling market into the ludicrious position of having no-one left to sell to (hence setting the stage for the retest of the early-October plunge).SPM9 calls are starting to look like surprisingly good value. Noel - this one's goin' out to you, wherever you are. (luck I sez, all pure luck) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joey Buttafueco Jr Posted May 7, 2009 Share Posted May 7, 2009 I know you're a serious trader.Do you think that the FTSE will crash badly from here ? (this is a closed question btw ) "I know you're a serious trader." I'm not - I'm a boring buy and hold investor! (although the day job is credit markets) "Do you think that the FTSE will crash badly from here ? (this is a closed question btw )" Firstly I will reiterate my belief that I have no ability to outsmart the market, and hence there is little point in me expressing my views as they are as likely to be right as wrong.... That being said, what has happened over the last few weeks is starting to look like irrational exhuberance, although I'm not sure we can confirm this as the valuations ((future) earnings) are up in the air. Maybe we won't get another Depression and the global stimulus have worked (in the sense that they have stopped deflation). Maybe there is so much cash flowing around that the stock market seems the obvious choice........ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grumpy-old-man-returns Posted May 7, 2009 Share Posted May 7, 2009 "I know you're a serious trader."I'm not - I'm a boring buy and hold investor! (although the day job is credit markets) oops, my mistake, I think I was getting you mixed up with 'Free Trader' "Do you think that the FTSE will crash badly from here ? (this is a closed question btw )"Firstly I will reiterate my belief that I have no ability to outsmart the market, and hence there is little point in me expressing my views as they are as likely to be right as wrong.... That being said, what has happened over the last few weeks is starting to look like irrational exhuberance, although I'm not sure we can confirm this as the valuations ((future) earnings) are up in the air. Maybe we won't get another Depression and the global stimulus have worked (in the sense that they have stopped deflation). Maybe there is so much cash flowing around that the stock market seems the obvious choice........ ok, thanks for that. Markets UP massively on ALL bad news......h'mmm..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confounded Posted May 7, 2009 Share Posted May 7, 2009 I know you're a serious trader.Do you think that the FTSE will crash badly from here ? (this is a closed question btw ) Suspect this was on at 3 in the morning US time. http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=av&...BDLHgmMmQ1s.asf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest มร หล Posted May 7, 2009 Share Posted May 7, 2009 "I know you're a serious trader."I'm not - I'm a boring buy and hold investor! (although the day job is credit markets) "Do you think that the FTSE will crash badly from here ? (this is a closed question btw )" Firstly I will reiterate my belief that I have no ability to outsmart the market, and hence there is little point in me expressing my views as they are as likely to be right as wrong.... That being said, what has happened over the last few weeks is starting to look like irrational exhuberance, although I'm not sure we can confirm this as the valuations ((future) earnings) are up in the air. Maybe we won't get another Depression and the global stimulus have worked (in the sense that they have stopped deflation). Maybe there is so much cash flowing around that the stock market seems the obvious choice........ http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grumpy-old-man-returns Posted May 7, 2009 Share Posted May 7, 2009 Suspect this was on at 3 in the morning US time. http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=av&...BDLHgmMmQ1s.asf 'we have had an engineered stock market rally' I will watch the rest later as I have to pop out now. hope you're keeping well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
punter Posted May 7, 2009 Share Posted May 7, 2009 QE = ripping off the country when it filters through into inflation. it is the zimbabwizing our economy I notice they have expanded the printing press another £50bn, the BBC proudly tells us on the front of its website! this is what happens, it starts out just a few billions, then a few billion more and before you know it they're adding noughts to banknotes. it will get out of control because the government is evil. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParticleMan Posted May 7, 2009 Share Posted May 7, 2009 That being said, what has happened over the last few weeks is starting to look like irrational exhuberance, although I'm not sure we can confirm this as the valuations ((future) earnings) are up in the air. nb: the tealeaves that took me in the upward direction are telling me to trail a 10pt stop and get ready to reload short for just this very reason; I don't think that the surprises will be in earnings exactly - I'm looking for a rising proportion of earnings used to service debt (to the detriment of the proportion distributed to shareholders); I have an uncanny feeling that something along these lines may upset those who depend on such things in the year ahead, triggering a liquidation event Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest มร หล Posted May 7, 2009 Share Posted May 7, 2009 QE = ripping off the country when it filters through into inflation. it is the zimbabwizing our economyI notice they have expanded the printing press another £50bn, the BBC proudly tells us on the front of its website! this is what happens, it starts out just a few billions, then a few billion more and before you know it they're adding noughts to banknotes. it will get out of control because the government is evil. Get a Forex account, quick. See Dr. Bubb thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joey Buttafueco Jr Posted May 7, 2009 Share Posted May 7, 2009 nb: the tealeaves that took me in the upward direction are telling me to trail a 10pt stop and get ready to reload short for just this very reason; I don't think that the surprises will be in earnings exactly - I'm looking for a rising proportion of earnings used to service debt (to the detriment of the proportion distributed to shareholders); I have an uncanny feeling that something along these lines may upset those who depend on such things in the year ahead, triggering a liquidation event What will be interesting to see is what happens if the rise continues and becomes self fulfilling. I remember looking at the housing market in 2003 and thinking it couldn't go further. What is to say we are not at the same point with the stock market? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joey Buttafueco Jr Posted May 7, 2009 Share Posted May 7, 2009 Get a Forex account, quick. See Dr. Bubb thread. is he advising not to touch FX? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest มร หล Posted May 7, 2009 Share Posted May 7, 2009 What will be interesting to see is what happens if the rise continues and becomes self fulfilling. I remember looking at the housing market in 2003 and thinking it couldn't go further. What is to say we are not at the same point with the stock market? Does anybody remember the chap Financial Planner? Yes, quite. He predicted a big stock market rally, did he not? DOW to 15,000 or something like that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest มร หล Posted May 7, 2009 Share Posted May 7, 2009 is he advising not to touch FX? Nope, it's a SH1T!!! get out of Sterling sort of thread. UK in for a depression sort of, well . . . depression. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParticleMan Posted May 7, 2009 Share Posted May 7, 2009 (edited) What will be interesting to see is what happens if the rise continues and becomes self fulfilling. I remember looking at the housing market in 2003 and thinking it couldn't go further. What is to say we are not at the same point with the stock market? Nothing at all, oh sage of the intartoobs; on a personal note the only reason this position's still open is I was left "temporarily" incapacitated by a surfeit of fine booze and pork based products in myriad form (otherwise it would've been closed out after Easter - at a far less tasty profit, I must hasten to add). Blessed it seems by a most pleasant intertwingling of happenstance and serendipity. There's plenty of mental things on the go, if you're looking for 'em; short gilt funds look like low hanging fruit to me, but not for any of the reasons the more hand-wavey types espouse (it's simple innit, you can't have an anti-bubble in credit at the same time as greed going the squirrel-grip in equities/ bounce in high yield currencies now can you; something's gotta burst). Edited May 7, 2009 by ParticleMan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire Posted May 7, 2009 Share Posted May 7, 2009 DrBubb's lastest posting on GEI: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....mp;#entry108035 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doctor Gloom Posted May 7, 2009 Share Posted May 7, 2009 As per title - anyone got any views? I sold out a couple of weeks ago believing that bourses had had a good run since the lows of March... how wrong was I! I believe you were right to get the f out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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