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you follow lowrentyieldmakessense's silver posts the other day ? reckons it's gonna fly.....

I also remember Pluto saying in 2007 that silver might be as good if not better bet than gold ?

No, I haven't read them and can't find, got a link please?

I agree, like silver and its chances the biggest hurdle for us is vat and the fact that it isn't widely recognised/traded.

Every yank knows what a silver eagle is and what coins have silver and will trade for it. We haven't had silver in coins since 1946 and people don't know silver.

Yanks can trade gold/silver according to the ratio and end up increasing their stack considerably without putting in another penny, we can't really get past the vat.

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No, I haven't read them and can't find, got a link please?

I agree, like silver and its chances the biggest hurdle for us is vat and the fact that it isn't widely recognised/traded.

Every yank knows what a silver eagle is and what coins have silver and will trade for it. We haven't had silver in coins since 1946 and people don't know silver.

Yanks can trade gold/silver according to the ratio and end up increasing their stack considerably without putting in another penny, we can't really get past the vat.

lowrenty......has just pm'd me these for you:

http://silverbids.com/?tag=comex-silver

and another one

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/sanders030703.html

but iirc, the second one is different to the one I saw the other day, which may have been off market-ticket or ticker-forum (although this is definitely worth a read. From one of my fav's sites ;).

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On this equities "pump and dump" (#725 and earlier posts), no doubt some of you saw Lex on "Bond Bear Markets" today:

"If yields are really rising due to fiscal jitters then the bond bear may not be sated unless a horrific equity market swoon prompts a new flight to safety back into bonds. Talk about intimidating."

So it'll probably come true, conspiracy or not. The idea is firmly in the mainstream now.

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No, I haven't read them and can't find, got a link please?

I agree, like silver and its chances the biggest hurdle for us is vat and the fact that it isn't widely recognised/traded.

Every yank knows what a silver eagle is and what coins have silver and will trade for it. We haven't had silver in coins since 1946 and people don't know silver.

Yanks can trade gold/silver according to the ratio and end up increasing their stack considerably without putting in another penny, we can't really get past the vat.

you can sort of get passed the VAT

some old posters on this thread

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...st&p=214998

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Thanks muchly, I won't use accounts as I firmly believe that if you don't hold it then you don't own it. I have a couple of kilos of junk coins (half crowns/florins) but really not sure if they will be easy to get rid of if need be.

under 5k cash buys on pm's, no ID required I do believe ? ;)

might be advisable if people intend buying large amounts of physical

Edited by grumpy-old-man-returns
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under 5k cash buys on pm's, no ID required I do believe ? ;)

might be advisable if people intend buying large amounts of physical

not necessarily cash but 5k in a single transaction and 10k in a year. I believe that not only is id required but both instances are reportable though can't find details to support it now.

Banks also record and report large withdrawals of cash aswell, think it is 10k.

Use the main dealers, coininvest, goldline etc spread it around. Also, find local coin guys you can buy from and build a rapour so that you also have somewhere to sell. Done lots on ebay and very few problems.

kilo bars of silver and full krugs from ebay will quickly change up your cash and although traceable is not checked or reported. Know what you are doing before doing this though, get descent scales and an acid test kit or a fisch tester.

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not necessarily cash but 5k in a single transaction and 10k in a year. I believe that not only is id required but both instances are reportable though can't find details to support it now.

Banks also record and report large withdrawals of cash aswell, think it is 10k.

Use the main dealers, coininvest, goldline etc spread it around. Also, find local coin guys you can buy from and build a rapour so that you also have somewhere to sell. Done lots on ebay and very few problems.

kilo bars of silver and full krugs from ebay will quickly change up your cash and although traceable is not checked or reported. Know what you are doing before doing this though, get descent scales and an acid test kit or a fisch tester.

I have a local jeweller who has lot's of silver & gold coins & bars but I would be wary buying them in case some are fakes. I don't know enough to be able to tell just by weight, feel & look tbh.

He has shown me them once about 6 months ago when I had already bought some from CID. He had a sizeable collection bearing in mind that he probably had a lot more that he didn't want to sell.

I didn't realise that it was only 10k in a year though from a reputable dealer & if you need id anyway then it's pointless doing it for that reason.

I wouldn't dare buy through ebay..... :o

edited - I am sure that someone posted on GEI stating that if your purchases were under 5k, no id was required for cash transactions ??

Edited by grumpy-old-man-returns
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Here's the chart for UK Public Sector Net Borrowing, updated with the May 2009 figure which was released this morning.

May's PSNB was £19.9bn, slightly higher than analyst expectations. April's number was revised upwards from £8.5bn to £10.6bn. The Government has now borrowed roughly as much in the first two months of this fiscal year as it did in the whole of 2006/07.

Net debt is now £774.8bn, 54.7% of GDP.

The gilts market shrugged off the high borrowing figures and the yield on the 10-yr gilt is now down to 3.75%. Investors are becoming cautious again as the grim news regarding the state of the global economy dampens expectations of any quick recovery.

psnb0509.gif

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I have a local jeweller who has lot's of silver & gold coins & bars but I would be wary buying them in case some are fakes. I don't know enough to be able to tell just by weight, feel & look tbh.

He has shown me them once about 6 months ago when I had already bought some from CID. He had a sizeable collection bearing in mind that he probably had a lot more that he didn't want to sell.

I didn't realise that it was only 10k in a year though from a reputable dealer & if you need id anyway then it's pointless doing it for that reason.

I wouldn't dare buy through ebay..... :o

edited - I am sure that someone posted on GEI stating that if your purchases were under 5k, no id was required for cash transactions ??

I wouldn't be anymore wary of the local jeweller than a main dealer. You need to learn how to tell and check your gold. Places like cid and hatton garden etc buy stuff in and sell it. They turn stuff around quickly and I wouldn't hold my breath that every coin was checked and tested, probably a lot of dudds passing through reputable dealers aswell though not herd of it in uk.

The 10k thing seems to be from each dealer/account as far as I remember so if you spread it around you can get rid of a lot of cash with just under 10k at each.

Buying from ebay has a risk but can be limited by only dealing with reputable sellers. Make sure that they have a long history of selling gold and have excellent feedback.

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(...)

The Government has now borrowed roughly as much in the first two months of this fiscal year as it did in the whole of 2006/07.

(...)

Mindblowing.

So mind blowing that I unthinkingly nicked your graph and posted it in theplacethatcannotbenamed without asking. I hope you don't mind.

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Here's the chart for UK Public Sector Net Borrowing, updated with the May 2009 figure which was released this morning.

May's PSNB was £19.9bn, slightly higher than analyst expectations. April's number was revised upwards from £8.5bn to £10.6bn. The Government has now borrowed roughly as much in the first two months of this fiscal year as it did in the whole of 2006/07.

Net debt is now £774.8bn, 54.7% of GDP.

The gilts market shrugged off the high borrowing figures and the yield on the 10-yr gilt is now down to 3.75%. Investors are becoming cautious again as the grim news regarding the state of the global economy dampens expectations of any quick recovery.

psnb0509.gif

Thanks for this.

Will there need to be an emergency budget ?

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Who Are They Trying To Fool? (TNX)

Thursday, June 18. 2009

Posted by Karl Denninger in Bonds at 15:44

I mean, c'mon, $165 billion in Treasuries for sale in the next week?

$31 billion in 3-month bills

$27 billion in 7-year notes

$40 billion in 2-year notes

$37 billion in 5-year notes

$30 billion in 6-month bills

Annualized this is $8.58 trillion dollars!

Now obviously they won't keep doing that for the next 52 weeks (one hopes) but you have to be smoking something if you think the market can continue to absorb this sort of supply and shrug it off.

Today the TNX was up over 5%, undoubtedly on this announcement, almost erasing the benefit from the recent stock market decline.

So Ben's liquidity games have bought him about 15 basis points of improvement in the TNX, but he's given up 35 handles on the SPX.

At this rate to get the TNX down to 3% he'll have to sacrifice 230 points on the SPX, taking it down to about the March lows.

Rock, meet hard place.

I told you so.

To the government: Stop spending or the TNX will continue to ramp and you will be forced to crash the market outright to keep mortgage rates from going to 8%.

Disclosure: They won't stop spending so I am of course short the broad market - the only logical trade to have on with this sort of stupidity coming out of Washington DC. We break a couple of key technical levels and I'm going to get so short I will be able to walk under my Suburban and not hit my head.

http://market-ticker.org/archives/1134-Who...o-Fool-TNX.html

http://www.tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?post=99252

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according to one of the posters on there, the reopened 3 months (whatever they are), were an appendix to the original

$27 billion in 7-year notes

$40 billion in 2-year notes

$37 billion in 5-year notes

$30 billion in 6-month bills

-----

$134 billion

things that make you go hmmmmmm

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according to one of the posters on there, the reopened 3 months (whatever they are), were an appendix to the original

$27 billion in 7-year notes

$40 billion in 2-year notes

$37 billion in 5-year notes

$30 billion in 6-month bills

-----

$134 billion

things that make you go hmmmmmm

Apparently those two Japanese fellows are now missing. :ph34r:

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Some comments on Gilts from Market Oracle from a Technical Trader and Macro Trader's standpoints.

http://marketoracle.co.uk/Article11436.html

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Today the DMO auctioned £4bn nominal of 4% Treasury Gilt 2022. The cover ratio was 1.69, the weakest cover since the 2nd April. When this same gilt was auctioned previously on 28th April the cover was 2.25. This is also the lowest cover ratio so far for a gilt which falls within the BoE's buying window under QE.

The tail was 1.1

All the same, gilts have had a good run recently as equity and commodity markets have sold off. The yield on the 10-yr gilt, which closed above 4% on 11th June, is currently 3.76%.

The BoE purchased £3.5bn of gilts yesterday under the QE programme, and it will also be buying another £3bn tomorrow.

Edit: removed word.

Edited by FreeTrader
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Question now is -

Will they wreck the real econopmy some more to prop up their rubbish, or will they make more tax/cut noises?

I would think today's result is a slight concern for the DMO. There's a net drain of gilts at present because the BoE is buying them faster than the DMO is selling, but unless QE is extended the DMO will be on its own in around five weeks' time.

It's trying to sell debt on a huge scale when other governments (most notably the US) are doing the same. You get the feeling that the markets can absorb this new issuance for a while but in due course we'll see auction fatigue. Barring another systemic crisis that causes investors to rush for safety again, I can only see govt bond yields being driven higher. I'm sure this is what is prompting comments from Bernanke, King and Trichet regarding the sustainability of public spending.

I'm guessing the MPC will use the extra £25bn of QE authorised, but if they extend the programme beyond £150bn, I think they'll be showing their true hand. It will be apparent that this is essentially about monetising UK public debt because there aren't enough genuine buyers to take it up at a yield that won't prove crippling for the public finances.

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I would think today's result is a slight concern for the DMO. There's a net drain of gilts at present because the BoE is buying them faster than the DMO is selling, but unless QE is extended the DMO will be on its own in around five weeks' time.

It's trying to sell debt on a huge scale when other governments (most notably the US) are doing the same. You get the feeling that the markets can absorb this new issuance for a while but in due course we'll see auction fatigue. Barring another systemic crisis that causes investors to rush for safety again, I can only see govt bond yields being driven higher. I'm sure this is what is prompting comments from Bernanke, King and Trichet regarding the sustainability of public spending.

I'm guessing the MPC will use the extra £25bn of QE authorised, but if they extend the programme beyond £150bn, I think they'll be showing their true hand. It will be apparent that this is essentially about monetising UK public debt because there aren't enough genuine buyers to take it up at a yield that won't prove crippling for the public finances.

So for us simples, the question is, will they continue to throw sh1t at the wall in the hope it continues to stick even though it has started to fall off already and just how much poo can they get to stick before it all comes crashing down in one stinking mound of excrement? Do they think they can keep the poo stuck on the wall until the next election?

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So for us simples, the question is, will they continue to throw sh1t at the wall in the hope it continues to stick even though it has started to fall off already and just how much poo can they get to stick before it all comes crashing down in one stinking mound of excrement? Do they think they can keep the poo stuck on the wall until the next election?

Quoting Bloomberg again I see..

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I would think today's result is a slight concern for the DMO. There's a net drain of gilts at present because the BoE is buying them faster than the DMO is selling, but unless QE is extended the DMO will be on its own in around five weeks' time.

It's trying to sell debt on a huge scale when other governments (most notably the US) are doing the same. You get the feeling that the markets can absorb this new issuance for a while but in due course we'll see auction fatigue. Barring another systemic crisis that causes investors to rush for safety again, I can only see govt bond yields being driven higher. I'm sure this is what is prompting comments from Bernanke, King and Trichet regarding the sustainability of public spending.

I'm guessing the MPC will use the extra £25bn of QE authorised, but if they extend the programme beyond £150bn, I think they'll be showing their true hand. It will be apparent that this is essentially about monetising UK public debt because there aren't enough genuine buyers to take it up at a yield that won't prove crippling for the public finances.

Right.

SO they are going wreck more of the real economy to keep things going a little while longer.

And the only end for this is currency repudiation and state failure (as I have been saying for a while now) - but this gives us a time horizon on it.

12 months, tops.

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