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2 hours ago, frederico said:

Bond yields are indication of future inflation expectations, so make of them what you will.

Nope.

They are what bonds are trading at on the day.

2003ish greek bonds yirlded very lityle over bunds.

Dont rely on financial markets for telling tne future beyond a couple of days.

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1 hour ago, Dyson Fury said:

Bump.

Anybody still watching this?  UK 10-year gilt yield now down to below 1%.   Even 20-year is 1.40%, which is below what the 10-year was last year.

https://markets.ft.com/data/bonds

(click on the "Table" tab for the full listing)

So the markets are not considering higher rates any time soon? The US yield curve is very saggy too.

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5 hours ago, Captain Kirk said:

That downward spike in 2018 Q4 is all equities which have since recovered.

 

Thanks to Drumpf's furious deficit spending.

Now he's demanding rate cuts and more QE, the very things he spent 8 years vilifing Obama for doing.

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/fixed-income/trump-heaps-pressure-on-fed-calls-for-quantitative-easing-interest-rate-cuts-14918330

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, zugzwang said:

Thanks to Drumpf's furious deficit spending.

Now he's demanding rate cuts and more QE, the very things he spent 8 years vilifing Obama for doing.

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/fixed-income/trump-heaps-pressure-on-fed-calls-for-quantitative-easing-interest-rate-cuts-14918330

 

 

 

I remember candidate Trump criticizing the Fed.

Quote

Now, look, we have the worst revival of an economy since the Great Depression. And believe me: We’re in a bubble right now. And the only thing that looks good is the stock market, but if you raise interest rates even a little bit, that’s going to come crashing down.

We are in a big, fat, ugly bubble. And we better be awfully careful. And we have a Fed that’s doing political things. This Janet Yellen of the Fed. The Fed is doing political — by keeping the interest rates at this level. And believe me: The day Obama goes off, and he leaves, and goes out to the golf course for the rest of his life to play golf, when they raise interest rates, you’re going to see some very bad things happen, because the Fed is not doing their job. The Fed is being more political than Secretary Clinton.

 

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On 26/03/2019 at 09:04, Dyson Fury said:

Bump.

Anybody still watching this?  UK 10-year gilt yield now down to below 1%.   Even 20-year is 1.40%, which is below what the 10-year was last year.

https://markets.ft.com/data/bonds

(click on the "Table" tab for the full listing)

I think the market is wrong.

UK has much higher borrowing requirements.

And a massive lump of debt.

Despite importing 10m+ migrants theres no sign on any productivity numbers - they are all hand washing cars and serving coffee and sat on tax credits.

 

 

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14 hours ago, zugzwang said:

Thanks to Drumpf's furious deficit spending.

Now he's demanding rate cuts and more QE, the very things he spent 8 years vilifing Obama for doing.

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/fixed-income/trump-heaps-pressure-on-fed-calls-for-quantitative-easing-interest-rate-cuts-14918330

 

 

 

Trump can smell the recession now and is in a panic. If he does not get IR cuts and QE now he has no chance in 2020 - he knows it. Shiff does a good analysis.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_BOIgKBB8WA

 

  

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1 hour ago, Giraffe said:

Trump can smell the recession now and is in a panic. If he does not get IR cuts and QE now he has no chance in 2020 - he knows it. Shiff does a good analysis.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_BOIgKBB8WA

 

  

The US is caught in a debt trap like the UK only somewhat less severe (150% vs 170% debt/GDP).

The private sector needs deleveraging. Until that happens economic growth will be fitful and interest rates will remain stuck at the Zero Lower Bound.

Screen-Shot-2017-04-21-at-13.52.41.png

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8 hours ago, zugzwang said:

The US is caught in a debt trap like the UK only somewhat less severe (150% vs 170% debt/GDP).

The private sector needs deleveraging. Until that happens economic growth will be fitful and interest rates will remain stuck at the Zero Lower Bound.

Screen-Shot-2017-04-21-at-13.52.41.png

I'm gratified to see someone is taking care of things while I've been away. Good job Zugzwang!

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On 06/04/2019 at 11:47, zugzwang said:

The private sector needs deleveraging. Until that happens economic growth will be fitful and interest rates will remain stuck at the Zero Lower Bound.

Causation or correlation? My view is debt is high because credit cheap. And credit is cheap because long term rates have trended toward zero based on increasing efficiency in meeting demand.

I posted about it here:

 

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