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I've started this topic so data and info on the UK gilts market can be collated into a single thread for reference purposes. Obviously specific threads will be started when major events happen re UK Government debt, and this one is merely designed for the posting of occasional charts and data updates so that members can get a feel for how various debt issuance/purchase programs are progressing.

The UK gilts market didn't used to be an area of much interest to anyone on this board, but with the huge issuance of Government debt scheduled over the next few years, and with the Bank of England's Asset Purchase Facility in play (aka quantitative easing), all eyes are now on the gilts market as it represents an indicator for movements in future interest rates and also reflects on the perceived credibility of HM Treasury's fiscal policy and the monetary policy of the Bank of England (BoE).

We discussed the possibility of failed gilt auctions in the following thread back in November 2008:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=94690

We had the first uncovered conventional gilt auction since 1995 on 25 March. This created quite a stir in the press and focused everyone's attention on the importance of the role of the Debt Management Office (DMO) and the BoE's asset purchase program under quantitative easing. The main HPC thread on the uncovered auction started by Treasurydealer is here:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...howtopic=109202

Some further useful links:

The Debt Management Office

The Asset Purchase Facility section of the BoE website

A recent Daily Telegraph interview with Robert Stheeman, chief exec of the DMO

The DMO's Debt and Reserves Management Report 2009/10 (669K PDF)

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Some relevant charts:

The first shows the Cover Ratio for conventional gilt auctions since 1998 (i.e. it excludes index-linked gilts). This is the ratio of the total amount bid at the auction compared to the amount offered for sale. A ratio of roughly 1.75 and above shows healthy demand, 1.5 is okay, but anything much below this can be a cause for concern. A cover below 1.0 is of course an 'uncovered auction' where the amount bid is less than the total issuance on offer, and you'll often see this described as a 'failed auction'. The sole red bar on the chart is the uncovered auction of 25 March.

This chart doesn't show the maturity dates of the gilts auctioned, and this can have a large bearing on the cover. For example, last month's uncovered auction was for a long-dated gilt due to mature in 2049, and this lay outside the 5-25 year window for the BoE's quantitative easing purchases, so it was more understandable that demand was low.

GiltCover290409.gif

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The second chart shows the Yield Tail for conventional gilt auctions, again since 1998. The yield tail is measured in basis points and it's the difference between the yield at the lowest accepted price in the auction and the yield at the average accepted price, multiplied by 100.

For example, on 16 April the DMO auctioned £4,000 million nominal of 2.25% Treasury Gilt 2014. The yield at the average accepted price was 2.839%, and the yield at the lowest accepted price was 2.857%. Therefore the tail was (2.857 – 2.839) * 100 = 1.8.

The yield tail is another useful indicator of investor demand and should be looked at in combination with the cover. For the past few years a tail above 1.0 has been the exception, and anything above 2.0 was very rare. Recently though the tails have been considerably higher at times, as the chart shows. The big spike you can see is the uncovered March auction, and the prior auction to that was a harbinger of what was to come, with a tail of 9.8 even though the cover was a not-disastrous 1.45.

GiltTails290409.gif

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The final chart shows the yield on the 10-year gilt (red line/right scale) since the start of the year with the DMO auctions and BoE gilt purchases also plotted (left scale). In addition I've shaded the area since the BoE announced it would be buying gilts under its quantitative easing programme.

As you can see, the yield fell sharply (i.e. gilt prices rose) when the MPC voted on 5 March to buy £75 billion of assets financed by the issuance of central bank reserves. Since this programme started the Bank has purchased £41.5bn of gilts (not including today's purchases), but gradually the 10-year yield has crept back up again and currently it isn't far from where it was before QE began. This presents the MPC with something of a dilemma as they must soon decide whether to extend the facility to make more purchases.

The question they have to ask themselves is whether too much QE will have a negative effect – will gilt investors become fearful of too much 'money printing' and therefore demand ever higher gilt yields to compensate for inflationary risk? This would render QE somewhat self-defeating as far as holding yields down is concerned, and with no clearly defined exit strategy the BoE risks reaching a tipping point where gilt investors run for the hills. On the other hand if they don't extend the QE purchases, will there be enough demand for the £220bn of 2009/10 gilt issuance to prevent more uncovered auctions and to keep yields from moving sharply upwards?

TenYearGiltYield290409.gif

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Excellent. Cheers for this.

I, like many, have been trying to get my head around this. With some success.

So it looks like the demand for these is still falling, even including the false demand added by the QE purchases.

I find that interesting.

From my limited knowledge - it seems the market is insisting that yields must rise. Are the BoE pushing on a piece of string..

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Ha, ha, ha! I like the idea but I would wager that the next bit of news involving gilts will give rise to numerous threads on page 1.

As I said the first para, the idea is for this thread to be updated now and again with any relevant data (e.g. auction results, QE purchases) so that we can track the mood of the gilts market over time.

The intention isn't for it to become THE one and only thread discussing UK Government debt. I expect it to drop off the front page pretty rapidly whenever it's updated.

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You can bookmark any thread by going to options (in the top right) -> track this topic. You can then decide if you want to be emailed with updates etc. You can see your subscribed topics by going to my controls -> Subscriptions - subscribed topics.

This is how I track important informative threads from members who know what they are talking about. :)

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i've been expecting you Mr Bond

bookmarked too, cheers!

the BBC has a page where those with photographic memories can track UK Gilts

http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/fds/hi/...ilt/default.stm

Good thread Mr FreeTrader

I've been keeping track of these the past few days, by copying and pasting into a chart.

bbb.PNG

Yields appear to be decreasing at the moment, although I've only been keeping track a few days.

post-9696-1241018881_thumb.png

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Excellent. Cheers for this.

I, like many, have been trying to get my head around this. With some success.

So it looks like the demand for these is still falling, even including the false demand added by the QE purchases.

I find that interesting.

From my limited knowledge - it seems the market is insisting that yields must rise. Are the BoE pushing on a piece of string..

It's beginning to look that way, although some of the upward movement in yields might be attributed to investors beginning to feel that the worst of the recession is over and hence moving from the safe haven of government bonds to higher risk assets.

The same thing is happening in the U.S. too. Yesterday the yield on the 10-year note (U.S. Treasury equivalent of the 10-year gilt) crept above 3%, and this is considered somewhat of a line in the sand for Ben Bernanke. It's slipped back to just below 3% today, but one wonders whether the Fed is going to have to considerably increase its QE purchases of U.S. Treasuries if it wants to keep medium- and longer-term rates suppressed.

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Yields appear to be decreasing at the moment, although I've only been keeping track a few days.

Yep, yields have been falling a little over the last few days. I think some of this has been a pull back from the knee jerk reaction to the budget, and also there were no nasty surprises in yesterday's auction.

Nice chart BTW. Is that Excel? I'm too much of a skinflint and use OpenOffice.

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Yep, yields have been falling a little over the last few days. I think some of this has been a pull back from the knee jerk reaction to the budget, and also there were no nasty surprises in yesterday's auction.

Nice chart BTW. Is that Excel? I'm too much of a skinflint and use OpenOffice.

It was after the budget I started keeping track, I was half expecting them to do something interesting by now, I'll keep doing it, the chances are the DMO or someone else already does this though(or similar)?

It's excel 2007, we've not had it long at work, it looks good but everything's in a different place to older versions and no one seems to know how to use it!

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As we read in the financial press given massive deflationary pressures it makes sense to be in cash and gilts are interest bearing cash and they are tradeable for massive profits

So gilts are good good good at the moment.

Can anybody yet see income increasing inflation bursting into our lives to get house prices moving upwards in a hyperinflationary manner?? It is more or less unthinkable

The economies of the world are on life support. The idea that they will have a pulse without massive artificial aid seems currently fanciful surely?

On the other hand we can maybe guess that by 2010 some kind of bottom in US private housing will be in sight or in place but then how to do they do anything more than bump along the bottom? Their economy is suffering massive damage daily and it is still unravelling into for example commercial real estate.

I am not saying i have any more insights than the next guy but i am getting more pessimistic now. This deflationary thing is upon us dispite my beliefs it was unlikely. It is touch and go now as to what happens from here onwards. We almost need miracles now. Obama has been shown to be more of the same VI nonesense. They are unlikely to quickly do the right thing to purge the badness and create something that will get things moving again. Things are just too rotten at the moment in the worlds biggest economy. :(

Brittish gilts could yet be a winner in all of this. I think we are heading into the great unknown now. :unsure:

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http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/8476300

* 2009/10 debt issuance to negate yield benefits of BoE QE

* BoE policy impact unclear, given official inflation focus

By David Milliken

LONDON, April 27 (Reuters) - Britain's need to sell a record 220 billion pounds ($320 billion) of government debt over the coming year risks proving a major thorn in the side for the Bank of England, as it tries to boost the economy by printing money to buy gilts.

The unexpectedly high gilt issuance could well negate one of the key side benefits of the BoE's 75 billion pound quantitative easing programme by putting upward pressure on gilt yields, potentially raising financing costs across the economy.

But analysts question whether this will make the BoE press ahead with more quantitative easing, or instead wait to take stock once its current programme of asset purchases finishes as early as the end of next month.

The declared aim of the BoE's quantitative easing policy is to boost the money supply, encouraging banks to lend by buying gilts -- and, to a lesser extent, corporate bonds and short-term company debt -- with newly created money.

But an important side effect of buying gilts is that it should push up their price, thereby lowering the yield, or interest rate, that investors receive and thus making riskier but higher-yielding shares and corporate bonds more attractive.

Up until the Budget, there were tentative signs this was starting to happen.

In the three weeks running up to the Budget investors had been steadily less willing to sell the sums of longer-dated gilts sought by the BoE, and for the two auctions just before the BoE had to pay above-market prices, pushing down yields.

"All else being equal you'd expect to see prices continuing to rise. The Bank would have to pay up as it tries to prise gilts from the hands of people who aren't natural sellers," said Jason Simpson, strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland.

"Now with the Budget, while there won't be a rush to the door, people will see how much supply there is and use the auction to sell bonds," he said.

At Monday's reverse auction for 3.5 billion pounds of longer-dated gilts the sum of gilts offered rose by two thirds, with investors wanting to sell 10.2 billion pounds worth compared with 6.4 billion pounds last week.

"People after the Budget are more willing to sell to the Bank," Simpson said.

British government 10-year borrowing costs shed most of their traditional premium versus German bond yields after the BoE announced its quantitative easing policy on March 5, but since the Budget spreads have widened.

BOE DILEMMA

The question for the Bank of England is how it should react, especially as it has stressed that its quantitative easing policy is independent of government borrowing plans, and focused on keeping inflation close to its 2 percent target.

Assuming it continues to buy assets at its current rate, the BoE will have spent its initial 75 billion pounds by June. It will then have to decide whether to start another 75 billion of purchases immediately, using up the full 150 billion pounds authorised in February by finance minister Alistair Darling.

Simpson expected the BoE to move ahead rapidly with further purchases, in part because the minutes of the BoE's April policy meeting noted the quantitative easing policy had lowered gilt yields, and showed concern that they could rise if it stopped.

"Even if they start on a second 75 billion, you're still on top of that going to have another 120 billion (of new issuance) for the market to absorb. It's very difficult to see how the BoE buying is going to keep yields down," said Simpson.

But Philip Shaw, an economist at Investec, said it was far from certain that the BoE would immediately continue gilt purchases.

"We think that is misplaced. The quantitative easing programme is specifically designed to support the economy in meeting its 2 percent inflation target," Shaw said.

Assessing the impact of QE on inflation is difficult, and the BoE was likely to be cautious unless there was clear evidence that higher gilt yields were outweighing the impact of greater money supply and past cuts in interest rates, Shaw said.

"The BoE has made its intentions crystal clear on quantitative easing, that it's not aimed at supporting issuance. It's not to get gilt yields lower. Having said that, it would do no harm for the BoE to repeat this message," he said. (Editing by Toby Chopra) ($1 = 0.6869 pounds)

I wonder if they will use up the 150bn by June ?

THen what yields rise ?

Do you think QE is going to work ?

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http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/8476300

I wonder if they will use up the 150bn by June ?

THen what yields rise ?

Do you think QE is going to work ?

I think it's a very dangerous game to keep increasing the amount of gilt purchases under QE. In that article Philip Shaw said:

"The quantitative easing programme is specifically designed to support the economy in meeting its 2 percent inflation target.[...]The BoE has made its intentions crystal clear on quantitative easing, that it's not aimed at supporting issuance. It's not to get gilt yields lower. Having said that, it would do no harm for the BoE to repeat this message."

Certainly the BoE is peddling this line, but I'm afraid I don't buy it. Let's think this through for a moment. If we take the BoE at face value, then should CPI stay above target or even rise, the BoE will presumably unwind its QE program and sell its gilt holdings back into the market to mop up reserves.

So we'll have the DMO selling the remainder of its £220bn issuance while the BoE is unloading another £60bn or more. Nearly £280bn of gilts to be sold to investors who are seeing inflation rise and therefore want a higher yield to compensate for risk. What's that going to do to interest rates?

Nope, I don't accept the BoE's supposed rationale for QE. It's plain central bank funding of public debt, and the danger is that the market will call them out on it at some point, just as appears to be happening in the U.S. now.

I'm hoping the MPC will see the corner they're painting themselves into and not extend the programme, but I suspect they'll vote to go ahead with the second £75bn of QE.

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Can anybody yet see income increasing inflation bursting into our lives to get house prices moving upwards in a hyperinflationary manner?? It is more or less unthinkable

The stock market is rising and it must be because it regards deflation as temporary and that in the medium term real assets are going to hold up better than monetary ones such as gilts.

Houses are different because there is no credit with which to buy them.

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If we take the BoE at face value, then should CPI stay above target or even rise, the BoE will presumably unwind its QE program and sell its gilt holdings back into the market to mop up reserves.

Gilts aren't the only thing that the BOE can sell these days.

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publication...ws/2009/036.htm

At 26 March, purchases under the Asset Purchase Facility totalled £15,087mn, of which £14,103mn were financed by the issuance of central bank reserves. These purchases comprised £128mn of corporate bonds; £1,966mn of commercial paper and £12,993mn of gilts.

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publication...ws/2009/006.htm

As previously announced, the drawdown period for the SLS closed on 30 January. Use of the Scheme has been considerable, totalling £185 billion of Treasury Bills. The attached Market Notice provides further details.

... and lest we forget (although it's not necessarily BOE stock, the DMO's issuance is in large part due to)...

http://www.dofonline.co.uk/strategic-finan...res-040917.html

The Government entity UK Financial Investments Ltd (UKFI) owns 43% of Lloyds Banking Group and has told Bloomberg that does not intend to loan out its shares.

UKFI is also able to loan out shares in RBS - UKFI owns about 70% of RBS. As with Lloyds UKFI says it has not loaned any RBS shares and does not intend to do so in the future.

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I appreciate this is a gilts thread but US bonds may be relevant too..

Rising bond yields present fresh Fed challenge

By Aline van Duyn in New York

Published: April 29 2009 18:15 | Last updated: April 29 2009 18:15

After rising steadily in recent weeks, yields on US Treasuries have this week finally climbed back above the levels at which they were trading before the Federal Reserve started buying US debt a month ago.

The ability of the Fed to balance the records amounts of new debt the US government has to sell – supply pressure which tends to raise interest rates – with its desire to keep interest rates low enough to spur fresh lending and mortgage financing continues to drive the Treasury market.

Yields on 10-year US Treasury debt on Wednesday traded above 3.00 per cent, compared with a low of 2.54 per cent on March 18 just after the Fed had announced it was planning to buy long-term debt. The 30-year US Treasury bond yield hit 3.92 per cent, above the 3.8 per cent before “quantitative easing” was introduced.

“It’s all about the market’s testing of the Fed’s resolve to keep yields low,” said Carl Lantz, interest rate strategist at Credit Suisse. “The markets are waiting to see whether the Fed will keep surprising them in ways that could push yields lower.” Such surprises could involve a bigger direct purchases, or buying larger chunks of debt at once, he said.

The $300bn Treasuries purchase plan announced at last month’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting marked the first time in decades that the Fed had committed to buy long-term US debt. The amount may be increased, especially if pressure on yields continues to rise. The large initial impact of the move has been wiped out, partly because of concerns over the scale of the debt issuance needed to fund massive US fiscal stimulus and bank bail-out programmes. However, given the sharp rally in equity markets since early March – the S&P 500 index is up more than 25 per cent – yields would probably have risen much more without the Fed’s intervention.

Fed analysts suggested the $300bn purchase would reduce the yield on 10-year Treasuries by 25-35 basis points. Officials think the rate today is much lower than it would have been if they had not started buying.

“For yields to reverse their natural course, not only does the Fed have to step up purchase of long-term Treasuries and agencies, but bond traders will have to be convinced that such actions are sufficient in capping bond yields,” said Ashraf Laidi, chief market strategist at CMC Markets. He said the rise of the 10-year yield above 3 per cent “signals bond traders’ constant challenging of the Fed”.

The importance of supply issues was clear in the 30-year yield’s moves this week. The yield rose partly in anticipation of increased sales of 30-year bonds. On Wednesday, the Fed said it would increase the frequency of its 30-year bond sales to monthly, part of a plan to meet an estimated $1,600bn to $2,700bn of new borrowing needs.

Minutes of the meeting of the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee showed that members discussed adding new maturities to the Treasury market. “Several members stated that Treasury may need to consider this alternative, but should begin with a second reopening of the 30-year bond and monitor developments in the long end of the curve,” the minutes said.

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I appreciate this is a gilts thread but US bonds may be relevant too..

What's happening in the U.S. is definitely relevant LP. The yield on the ten-year Treasury is still rising, up to 3.163% today.

Also the ECB will be meeting on 7 May and they may announce their own 'unconventional' measures.

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Gilt-holders urged to ride out the storm

By Ellen Kelleher

Published: May 1 2009 17:50 | Last updated: May 1 2009 17:50

The news from chancellor Alistair Darling that government debt is set to balloon to levels not seen in half a century suggests that investors should re-examine their long-dated gilt holdings. Technically, if the supply of government bonds increases, their prices should fall.

But some contrarian fund managers and advisers now beg to differ and warn against selling gilts, at least in the short-term. They shrug off fears that the issuance of £220bn in government debt will flood the market, claiming that conditions are better than they appear.

In spite of a recent sell-off, 10-year gilt yields are, at 3.5 per cent, still 2 percentage points lower than they were in 2007 when the yield on a benchmark 10-year UK government bond reached a seven-year peak of 5.48 per cent. And yields are likely to fall further, while prices – with which they have an inverse relationship – rise over the next six to 12 months, advisers predict.

As Phyllis Reed, head of fixed-income research at Kleinwort Benson, puts it: “The basic laws of supply and demand don’t always work in the bond markets.”

Proof in support of the bulls’ argument came the gilt auctions on Tuesday and Thursday, run by the UK Debt Management Office. The auction for £3bn of gilts due in 2022 was oversubscribed 2.25 times, while the auction for £1.1bn in index-linked gilts due in 2022 was more than two times oversubscribed.

“Looking at the cover, the tail [how closely grouped bids are] and the pricing, these two auctions were very solid,” says Stuart Cheek, head of UK government bonds at BGC Partners, the firm of brokers.

The strong demand at this week’s auctions has been seen by many as a good omen. But the record level of debt issuance that the country requires puts pressure on the Bank of England to continue buying back gilts as part of its programme of quantitative easing.

The aim of the quantitative easing is to stimulate the economy and avoid further downward revisions to economic growth.

“But the immediate impact of the Budget is to make life harder for the Bank of England,” points out Mike Amey, a sterling portfolio manager with Pimco, the bond house.

With interest rates nearing zero, economic activity weak and deflation on the horizon, the UK’s credit markets have been compared to those of Japan during the financial crisis of the mid-1990s. In this period, long-dated Japanese government bond yields fell.

A jump in savings rates could help the market, as banks would be forced to bolster their debt holdings, says Paul Brain, head of fixed- income at Newton. “We’re still fairly confident about gilt yields,” he says. “And we think new demand will offset new supply and our back-of-envelope calculations indicate that there will be £200bn worth of demand this year.”

Reed, at Kleinwort Benson, urges investors to hold on to longer-dated gilts in the near-term as deflation comes, but then exchange them for index-linked bonds for protection if inflation returns. “I think private investors should stick with deflationary investments in the next six months or so, with a view to increasing their inflation-linked products later on,” she advises.

Financial advisers agree – with many encouraging clients to hold on to long-dated gilts on the basis that interest rates will remain close to zero for some time. Tim Cockerill, head of research at Rowan, says there is little to suggest that the level of gilt issuance has much correlation to gilt performance.

Quantitative easing is also intended, in part, to narrow the spread between corporate bond yields and gilt yields. But it has yet to prove effective: with yields of 9 per cent or more still offered by investment-grade bonds. As a result, investors seeking income have been piling into corporate bond funds for months as an alternative to falling equity markets.

M&G’s Strategic Corporate bond fund, which invests mostly in higher-quality investment-grade bonds from blue-chips such as Roche, Anheuser Busch and Wal-Mart, and offers a variable yield of 4.77 per cent, is up 11 per cent in the past six months.

Meanwhile, Rensburg’s corporate bond fund, which last reported a quarterly distribution yield of 5.84 per cent, has returned 9 per cent in the period, according to Morningstar.

“The excess yield they offer more than compensates you in the medium term for the extra risk,” says Pimco’s Amey. “For a private investor, the corporate bond market looks a better place to be than the gilt market. The only risk is that we go through a further deterioration in the economic background.”

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/d863f174-366f-11...144feabdc0.html

Is that correct about the corporate bond spread ?

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http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/d863f174-366f-11...144feabdc0.html

Is that correct about the corporate bond spread ?

Yes, some of the yields on corporate bond funds are very high (over 9%, although the high yield ones tend to contain a large proportion of bonds from the banking sector).

One strategy used by a number of hedge funds this year (I've also done it) is to buy both IL gilts and corporate bonds as a hedge against both inflation and deflation. The idea is that if inflation takes off then the linkers will give a good return, but if we get deflation then the corporates will do well (corporate bonds easily outperformed equities during the Great Depression).

Re the article you posted...so much to object to with some of the comments. For example:

"Financial advisers agree – with many encouraging clients to hold on to long-dated gilts on the basis that interest rates will remain close to zero for some time."

Short-term interest rates will remain close to zero maybe, but that doesn't necessarily mean that the long end will remain low. We're seeing curve steepening in the U.S. right now, and there are signs of the same in the gilts market.

"Tim Cockerill, head of research at Rowan, says there is little to suggest that the level of gilt issuance has much correlation to gilt performance."

Er, how can you say that? When was the last time the government proposed to issue roughly £800bn of gilts in just 5 years?

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World Bank/ IMF/ IADB getting cored out by lending to developing nations...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=au0tygvChAcM

Average yields relative to midswap rates on dollar- denominated supranational debt rose to 164.4 basis points, as of yesterday, from 46.8 basis points at the start of October, according to the Credit Suisse Liquid U.S. Corporate Sovereign Spread Over Swap index.

The midswap index, which contains bonds sold by the World Bank and the IADB, reached a record-high of 217.4 basis points on Jan. 2, Credit Suisse data show.

:

Colombia, which received a four-year, $4 billion credit line from the World Bank last month, sold $1 billion of 10-year notes at 458.5 basis points above Treasuries April 14. That compares with 10-year notes Colombia sold in July 2006 at 229 basis points over Treasuries, Bloomberg data show.

... curtailed demand, spiralling funding costs, what's a modern despot to do?

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