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Is The Budget The Wake Up Call?


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Watching the news this evening and listening to the radio on the way into work I cannot help but see how the media are waking up to the financial mess we are in.

Badger has by coming clean on the debt mountain and gambling on fantasy land ideas that the economy is going to recover next year and then boom like it 1997 has caused at long last a shake up in the media from its sleep into the reality of what the country faces.

I expect to see the city baulk at todays mess and the fall out will come over the following days and weeks.

All not good for those green shoots of activity in the housing market

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Watching the news this evening and listening to the radio on the way into work I cannot help but see how the media are waking up to the financial mess we are in.

Badger has by coming clean on the debt mountain and gambling on fantasy land ideas that the economy is going to recover next year and then boom like it 1997 has caused at long last a shake up in the media from its sleep into the reality of what the country faces.

I expect to see the city baulk at todays mess and the fall out will come over the following days and weeks.

All not good for those green shoots of activity in the housing market

Yes

I felt that too

Seemed like a watershed moment

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People have no idea what 'billions' or even 'trillions' mean.

But 'doubling the National Debt in the next 3 years' and '£18,000 for every man woman and child in this country' and 'biggest deficit since WWII' etc etc etc have got to have some impact I suppose.

this is true. the numbers are not really registering with joe average, who hears these numbers all the time on the boring news before the footballs scores. so they are sort of ignorant to the tidal wave of shite on the way. they can sense the tide has gone out suddenly with their own jobs etc, but they have no idea that a tsunami is fast coming back in, or what that means to their daily lives.

also, that 18k debt label includes all children, oaps and non working people.

if you put that on the individual taxpayer its around £46k per worker.

and this is just the start. there are 4 more years of similar amounts to add on as there wont be any growth, so the final bill will be around 200k in todays money vs todays earnings per worker.

then theres the pensions hole......

a better way to explain is to view the video to see whats really going / gone on.

Edited by right_freds_dead
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It will provide a distraction to the masses until saturdays Britians got talent.

However I do think now that after saturdays holiday from reality it will be back in their minds pretty pronto, Things are getting heated in the states and it is only a matter of time till it comes here.

Bieng pissed off is becoming fashionable pub talk....................

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Watching the news this evening and listening to the radio on the way into work I cannot help but see how the media are waking up to the financial mess we are in.

Badger has by coming clean on the debt mountain and gambling on fantasy land ideas that the economy is going to recover next year and then boom like it 1997 has caused at long last a shake up in the media from its sleep into the reality of what the country faces.

I expect to see the city baulk at todays mess and the fall out will come over the following days and weeks.

All not good for those green shoots of activity in the housing market

It's a categorical and unmitigated mess. He's still claiming a GDP recovery of +1.5% in 18 months times !?!?! There was a good article in the FT this morning about the failure of financial journalists to wake up and do their job

Edited by itsnotme
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I just saw some figures from the budget report, the biggest amount of spending is on Social services in this Budget. £220 Billion. WTF?

Health 119 Billion

Education 88 Billion

Defence 38 Billion

They only spend £35 Billion on Law and order.

Housing 29 Billion

Debt Interest 28 Billion, jesus thats some bloody APR on the credit card.

Transport 23 Billion

Industry 20 Billion

Looks like the necessary stuff gets less and less and Labour troughing to its voters to the tune of 220 Billion for "social services" If we could cut that 220 Billion down, we wouldnt need to borrow £175 Billion. Ridiculous amount.

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I just saw some figures from the budget report, the biggest amount of spending is on Social services in this Budget. £220 Billion. WTF?

Health 119 Billion

Education 88 Billion

Defence 38 Billion

They only spend £35 Billion on Law and order.

Housing 29 Billion

Debt Interest 28 Billion, jesus thats some bloody APR on the credit card.

Transport 23 Billion

Industry 20 Billion

Looks like the necessary stuff gets less and less and Labour troughing to its voters to the tune of 220 Billion for "social services" If we could cut that 220 Billion down, we wouldnt need to borrow £175 Billion. Ridiculous amount.

yes but they are going to save £15 Billion with efficiency measures so it will be ok :lol:

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the numbers of irrelevent, they will keep going up, doubling every few years. it wont stop until tthe investors say they wont buy the bonds and then everything goes to pot

The investors shunned government bonds just a few weeks back. Quantative easing comes next, then maybe a period of massive inflation, huge job losses, entire industries collapsing (we've seen the banks and car industry go). The country is right on the edge.

Most of the occupants of HMS Britain will go down with the ship, watching that ugly bird Susan Boyle singing away blissfully unaware of that "boring economic stuff". This latest round of bank bailouts was a torpedo to the bow of an already over-laden vessel.

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Possibly.

The 10pm BBC news was apocalyptic in a way I've never seen BBC news before. I have to be careful - since I scared the crap out of friends of mine by being more apocalyptic (entirely out of the blue) at a BBQ around Easter 2007. Their reaction (entirely sensibly) was to assume I was bonkers - a look I saw in their eyes, but that is now universally denied. For me, what's happening now has been expected... all be it occurring on a time-scale that is slower than that I initially considered.

Having scared my friends almost 2 years ago, there have been lots of conversations. About 3 months ago, I exclaimed that I considered that a bond crisis was plausible (though not assured) based upon the fundamentals as I see them. The price of gilts is preposterously high - and, if it weren't for the fact that they define my currency, I'd want to find a way to short them (at least for my fantasy portfolio...)

I think we've just had a historic budget... historic not because it was bold, but because it wasn't - and being bold was the only credible possibility for a good outcome. I think the 50% tax rate is probably the most relevant issue - not in terms of sums of money involved, of course, but twofold: First, while I've never earned £150K/anm, there have been opportunities I've considered that would need to pay more than that to break even against a far more modest gross figure elsewhere. If my earnings as a consultant (under IR35) are capped at 50% income tax + 10% employees NI + 10% employers NI, then either rates have to be preposterous, or I can't afford to do business in some sectors/areas. I think it very helpful to receive an additional signal that I'll be exploited if I pull out all the stops to earn money. It is definitely going to influence my future strategy - essentially because it caps credible pay-off possibilities irrespective of my performance. To put things into context, I established for some opportunities in 2003 that I'd need to be paid £70K more to meet a £30K gross standard of living elsewhere to work in the city. Today, the budget suggests that the overhead of London is far higher... in fact, so high I expect businesses to leave for lower cost centres. Second, and this was highlighted by that Dragon's Den prat - the higher rate of top-tax will prompt greater avoidance... This amused me greatly... since those with the greatest increase in wealth avoid most tax already. What a 50% top-rate income tax will do is rather more subtle... it will make it ever more profitable to pursue tax avoiders... and there's a 6 year statute of limitations. That takes us back to 2003. So, I've got something to say to the banker folks: Have you paid your taxes? Have you paid 40% + 10% Employees + 10% Employers NI? Did you do this on ALL your earnings? Well, tell me son, do you feel lucky? Well, do you, punk?

I think we're seeing the reality of our situation slowly influence things we see everyday. I think this evening was a turning point in the news... I think it is the beginning of a widespread understanding of where the current crisis might lead. We're seeing repeated claims of "since WW2" - and that has to say something significant to anyone who has studied anything, even as little as I have, about history.

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Possibly.

The 10pm BBC news was apocalyptic in a way I've never seen BBC news before. I have to be careful - since I scared the crap out of friends of mine by being more apocalyptic (entirely out of the blue) at a BBQ around Easter 2007. Their reaction (entirely sensibly) was to assume I was bonkers - a look I saw in their eyes, but that is now universally denied. For me, what's happening now has been expected... all be it occurring on a time-scale that is slower than that I initially considered.

That struck me as well.

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