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Salisbury Anyone?


babnye
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It will be interesting to see if the continued bad news about house prices has an effect. Someone I know has just had an offer accepted on a property at about 40k less than its 2007 peak.

However, I know others, so desperate to get on the 'ladder' that they are talking of interest only, government subsidised loans and mortgages and borrowing money from anyone who will give it to them.

The idea of home ownership still seems to have a strong emotional pull...put Salisbury is starting to wake up to reality and vey little is selling!

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  • 1 month later...

OK, I'm getting really fed up with Salisbury now!

We decided to rent after being chucked out of our last place. The market seemed dead at the time too.

Now, only this week, I have seen one property sold within days of coming on to the market (at full asking price) and another which a friend saw yesterday which has similarly been sold at top whack. The friend was asked how much above asking price she was prepared to go!

Why is Salisbury so bloody expensive when there's no money here and why does it always seem to withstand the normal adjustments seen in other areas. I really despair of ever getting a house here. :angry:

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"OK, I'm getting really fed up with Salisbury now!"

I thought the same when I first moved to the area 20 years ago. Don't be taken in by local income statistics - Salisbury district is a very affluent area, local jobs might not pay that well but plenty of people commute to Southampton, Bath, London etc. etc. If you want to see local examples of non-affluence take a trip to Trowbridge, Devizes, Warminster or, God forbid, Westbury.

Don't be disheartened, when I first moved here my salary couldn't get me a one bed flat at the Friary but 3 years later on the same salary got me a 3 bed character cottage in one of the pretty villages "requiring some modernisation".

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The houses are well ahead of wages - Salisbury is just one those places.

Don't bother, chec kthe census/LA stats about wages/jobs - Salisbury is a low wage economy centred around low paying public sector jobs - Salisbury Plain, Porton - and low skilled jobs connected to houses - all thouse Painters + decorators.

But it does very, very, very badly in slowdowns due to its low wages.

If you bought in Salisbury in 1988 you would not have got your money (i.e. nominal prices) until 2001ish.

As far as travelling to Bath or Southampton for better paying jobs - there really are not that many good paying jobs there.

On the subject of jobs, the following is surfacing in various places and forms:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business...es-1704573.html

Best case - the Castle Road sites remains open. I dont think you will see many people relocating there.

Worse case - it shuts.

I'd go for at least one of the buildings shutting. FP have outsourced their IT to IBM recently.

The buildings do not have parking which is non-bo for trying to get people to commute (from where?) to Salisbury.

Parking is very expensive, even if you use the park+ride.

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It's just so frustrating to see houses 'SSTC' within days of being on the market and it has already had an effect of the asking prices of places coming on to the market.

I saw a house in town - Albany rd - on for 295k for several months. A couple have sold at 299 in Belle Vue. Enter MacKillops with a new house in Albany rd (no different to the first) for 345! These are terraces were talking about.

Madness!

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This might get a bit wierd/obsessive/trainspottery but ...

Was the Albany Rd one no. 55 (I think), on that small stretch before you turn off to Wyndham Rd.

It has some sort of Beuticiany business etched to the front window?

If so, I noticed a few weeks ago that the house is bare bolloxs empty (and still is).

I remember it being up for sale ages ago.

I gooogled it and found an entry along the lines of 'Must by Oct (2008 i guess) or will be rented out'

I'd assumed it sold but as its now empty the explanations are:

1) Was sold. Now repo'd

2) Was rented out. June09-6 months = Dec08. Tenant now gone.

This does not add much to the conversation. The house just stood out because its empty - a wierd state for house - let out or OO.

There's no sign on it either. If it was let I assume it must have been private.

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I think I know the one - about 10 houses up on the left (as you drive)? Yellowy/creamy windows?

I think that's been up for sale, down and back on for well over a year. I almost blind to it!

Those stretch of houses are not in a good location. They all back onto the bus garage.

5AM every morning they rev up the busesand start banging in the garage.

I once crashed at one of those houses after a party. It was summer, windows open. 5Am revs started then diesel fuels drifted in the house.

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But it does very, very, very badly in slowdowns due to its low wages.

If you bought in Salisbury in 1988 you would not have got your money (i.e. nominal prices) until 2001ish.

It still looked very affluent to me during the last recession - compared with the places in the midlands and Wales where I'd previously been working and living.

Don't forget those who are not in the salary demographic - the area is stuffed with senior ex-military and civil service retirees on stunning pensions. A couple of the villages bordering the plain have 24 hour armed police presence because of the density of retired senior gov and military bods who live there (all paid for by us ofcourse).

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Yes, Salisbury is more affluent than Wales and the Midlands. But it has more leverages/carrying more debt than those two places too. End of the day, its what left over after tax and debt expenditure that matters.

I'd guess the average family is Salisbury is probably in a worse cash position than the average family in the above.

As far as public sector pensions goes, I am undecided. Its a big subject, much bigger than the Salisbury thang.

Yes they are bullet proof but they'll be at 60% of final money.

Army major pull down 40Kish (I think) - ~22K pension (taxed).

BUT what happens when, not if, UKGOV starts to default - either by whoevers in charge or the IMF, which looks likely.

Public sector pensions are not funded and supporting them is a problem now - witness the tax take for police going up but the number of actual coppers going down.

Basically, its a choice between a controlled slash by a UKGOV - existing pension payouts reduced, retirement age raised, more taxes.

Or uncontrolled - IMG comes in, pays out according to what has been funded i.e. nothing, apart from a bit in the LAs.

The timescale for all this is now only a few years - 5.

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BUT what happens when, not if, UKGOV starts to default - either by whoevers in charge or the IMF, which looks likely.

Public sector pensions are not funded and supporting them is a problem now - witness the tax take for police going up but the number of actual coppers going down.

Basically, its a choice between a controlled slash by a UKGOV - existing pension payouts reduced, retirement age raised, more taxes.

Or uncontrolled - IMG comes in, pays out according to what has been funded i.e. nothing, apart from a bit in the LAs.

The timescale for all this is now only a few years - 5.

Indeed. As someone who has built up a good number of years service in public sector pension schemes (contributary and non-contrib in different jobs) I do not realistically expect to ever get that pension "entitlement" paid in full, if at all. :(

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  • 3 weeks later...

Went to see this property yesterday (http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-26289665.html).

Quite a good size, but lacking central heating and in need of work throughout. Might consider buying if could get it for under £200k, so started sounding out the agent about the local property market.

He said he couldn't believe what's been going on. He's sold 8 properties recently, 5 at asking price. He even said that he's had gazumping return.

I said, "But surely this is just an issue of lack of supply and that the fundamentals aren't there for the market to rise."

He replied, "The markets crazy at the moment and it's difficult to predict what's going to happen. But if you ask me prices are going to shoot up. You'd better buy now as by next year prices will be above peak".

This is from a guy who told me in 2008 that 15% had come off prices. He said the same thing yesterday. Yawn. Still seems the agents need a reality check. I'd hoped that he might be able to confirm the dead-cat-bounce is starting to fizzle out, instead I get the usual property ramping rubbish they always spout. Will go back in to hibernation and wait til after the summer as now is clearly not a good time to buy.

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Is that the house at the top, on the left (as you go up) that has the Perma 'To Let' sign on it?

As far as 'prices shooting back up'.

In this quarter of Salibsburt, a few of For Sales' have gone to 'SSTC' but very, very, very few have gone 'Sold'.

FP do look like closing the Salisbury site.

And this:

"Warning of 10-15% reduction in defence budget"

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b03c0d98-669f-11...144feabdc0.html

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I've been watching Salisbury through Firefox / Property Bee and quite a few properties have certainly had their sales fall through over the past few months, unbelievable thing is recently a few have pushed their price up again when they become re-available! In addition to hearing about the gazumping and apparent market activity in the post above this is all rather depressing. Are there really that many cash buyers around here who are piling in? Any opinions on what the run up to Christmas holds would be interesting. Dead cat still appears to have bounce left in it in these parts.

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Went to see this property yesterday (http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-26289665.html).

Quite a good size, but lacking central heating and in need of work throughout. Might consider buying if could get it for under £200k, so started sounding out the agent about the local property market.

He said he couldn't believe what's been going on. He's sold 8 properties recently, 5 at asking price. He even said that he's had gazumping return.

I said, "But surely this is just an issue of lack of supply and that the fundamentals aren't there for the market to rise."

He replied, "The markets crazy at the moment and it's difficult to predict what's going to happen. But if you ask me prices are going to shoot up. You'd better buy now as by next year prices will be above peak".

This is from a guy who told me in 2008 that 15% had come off prices. He said the same thing yesterday. Yawn. Still seems the agents need a reality check. I'd hoped that he might be able to confirm the dead-cat-bounce is starting to fizzle out, instead I get the usual property ramping rubbish they always spout. Will go back in to hibernation and wait til after the summer as now is clearly not a good time to buy.

[/quote

my god.. the current situation makes me incandescant with rage.. the country is ruined.. property is ridiculous, the fact that we are all obsessed with getting into huge debt is ridiculous..the fact that in salisbury we are blessed with a selection of totally sh*t housing stock makes me sick. RENT RENT RENT and f**K them all.

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do we really think that now is a good time to buy? now is the time to realise that we are on the brink of financial meltdown in the property market.. house prices can never return to peak levels when people are losing their jobs and the economy is in freefall.. that is a simple, basic economic principle. IT would be a very stupid person that buys a house at the moment in salisbury unless they pay cash and get a very large reduction. there soon will be no major employers in salisbury.. the only people buying a decent house around here will be the few cash rich older folk downsizing or just splurging out cos they cant take the money with them when they die

i am sorry to repeat myself but i do not simply understand why we all chain ourselves to a mortgage for our lives when they is a better way..

Edited by richiep
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I've been watching Salisbury through Firefox / Property Bee and quite a few properties have certainly had their sales fall through over the past few months, unbelievable thing is recently a few have pushed their price up again when they become re-available! In addition to hearing about the gazumping and apparent market activity in the post above this is all rather depressing. Are there really that many cash buyers around here who are piling in? Any opinions on what the run up to Christmas holds would be interesting. Dead cat still appears to have bounce left in it in these parts.

I told him that it can't be FTBs coming on to the market and he smiled at me and told me that 'Mum and Dad' were paying the deposits. Considering we've been saving for 5/6 years to get a decent deposit together this sort of thing makes me sick. Can people not yet see that it's all a big pyramid scheme and that in a strange way these handout deposits don't help anyone in the long term.

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> 'Mum and Dad' were paying the deposits.

Bull. 90% mortgages are very rare.

The current deposit for a FTB at the moment (and the forseeable future) is 40%

The mean wage in Salisbury is ~22K.

Incidently, we went to the Fire station car boot - the kids like looking for toys.

Tow observations:

1) Look of middle classy looking people there.

2) When we left (started to rain), I had a quick look up Ashley road (towards Devices Rd) - My, what a forest of 'For Sale' signs in what was one of the hot spot corners of SPx BTL.

By the way, anyone else noticing the number of empty and I mean empty - no curtains/ no furniture - at the moment?

I think there are a large number of repos going on but the banks are holding back selling them.

Expect a huge flood whenIRs go up and the Cons get in.

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> He's sold 8 properties recently, 5 at asking price

Not obesseving over this, but how about trying to put some numbers into his claim.

WARNING - These are rought figures/back of envelopes/I have cold so wolly headed sh*t brains!

but do think about the model!

The UK has 60M residents, at an average of 3 people/household there are ~ 20M households.

Salsibury district has 70K people, giving 23K households.

Salisbury district has 0.11% of the UK's housing stock.

There are currently 40K mortgages/month available.

I think will be stuck at these figures, or less, for the foreseeable future.

The UK needs 90K mortgages for stable house prices.

IF (big IF!) the percentage of housing stock translates thru to the number of mortgages for SPx then there are ~46 morgages/month in SPx

You could make a good case that as the P/E in SPx is amongst the worse in the UK then the figure will be a lot less - 60% max LTV and all that.

So thats ~ 11 mortages a week available in SPx.

How many EA offices, agents, admin, rents rates does that support?

Oh, can we have a sweep stake on the 1st EA office to close?

I put my money on Bassetts - they are new, they have 3 offices (3 * rates+rents), and I got their blurb with the boss guy saying 95% mortgages are essential to the housing market.

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Very interesting posts about mortgaging / bank of Mum & Dad etc! If Mum & Dad are stumping up 40% of an average FTB property here (say a 2 bed house on average = 160K) then they are producing £64,000! Even if they manage to find an 80% LTV that still means a deposit of £32,000.

I dropped into a couple of agents this weekend to look at rental properties. Ended up talking to the sales agents whilst I was there (sheer curiosity rather than anything else, no intention of buying at present myself). Interestingly the EAs said was that as there is so little stock for sale at present vendors are generally holding out for asking price or very near to, and would not accept a lower but proceedable cash offer over one which is higher but with a mortgage - so little hope for any STRs looking to pick up a bargain with a cheeky offer from their fund. I realise that it is in the EA interest to get higher prices etc but I do get the feeling that most Salisbury vendors are not in the least desperate to sell at the moment, and will bide their time for what they feel is the best price. If something remotely reasonably priced comes up it certainly goes SSTC very fast, and I was told that though there aren't loads of buyers, there aren't loads of choices in housing stock here either. If people see something they want, and there is so little on the market, they will often pay near asking price for it apparently. What happens when the mortgage valuations come in though? Can't believe these match the asking prices. Perhaps come Autumn a lot of these SSTC properties will be back on the market. Or perhaps not. I give up, lol.

Edited by ella-at-home
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Ahh, summer.

The sound of grass being cut and ... the traditional rumour of an FP bid:

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle6689497.ece

'It is thought to place a small premium on Friends Provident’s shares, which closed on Friday at 60p per share.'

And the FP. turned down an offer last year for 150p! Apparently, it was too low ...

Assuming this is real, its a pure book play i.e. no new sales, run off the books.

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  • 2 weeks later...

I am disappointed to report that the market seems to have really picked up in my neck of the woods (think A30 twixt Wilton and Shaftesbury). Loads of stuff has gone under offer/ sstc/ and really completely sold around here in the last 2-3 months. Inventory has dropped to the lowest level I have seen since I began regularly monitoring the market 2 years ago. Stuff is selling within 2 weeks of coming on the market (albeit at much more competitive prices than a year ago). Almost everything with land is selling fast.

My own experience of monitoring the viewings of a small house up for sale near us recently was that all the viewers were middle aged cash rich - no first time buyers, nobody needing a mortgage? Clearly not people who were considering the house as a home for themselves.

And speaking to friends in other villages in the area, it seems that almost every character property is being hoovered up by cash buyers at the moment.

Is the same thing happening the other side of Salisbury or am I witnessing a couple of multimillionaires on a shopping spree?

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I've been reading recent posts with interest. I noticed that the market certainly seems to have picked up. Here on B Farm houses are still going for money more appropriate for towns closer to London.

Why??? Where does the money come from?

I do think there are a certain amount of people who move here from elsewhere or indeed returns to Salisbury when they have kids, to try and get their sprogs into the grammar school. Now, I've got kids, I can see how these schools draw people. Not me I hasten to add. But others seem to think they live or die by the 11+. Lots of middle class stay at home mummies with husbands working miles away to earn a decent wage.

I am starting to really hate this crummy little town with no soul!

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  • 3 weeks later...
I am starting to really hate this crummy little town with no soul!

I think you are confusing SPx with Andover, or others down the M4 corridor ;-)

Salisbury big problem is the wages/house prices.

Local economy-wise, I'm seeing the effect of Mahle going - Salisbury largest blue collar employer.

Look's like the largest white collar employee is going to be a lot smaller (down to a couple of 100?):

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c5ae5372-8574-11...144feabdc0.html

FP and Mahle suport about 2 extra jobs per employee:

Mahle = 500 (employed) + 1000 (supported)

FP = ~1000 (employed) + ~2000 (supported)

totalling ~ 4500 jobs

Leaving only retail as private sector employment.

Not good.

I'll post again with FP's interim, due Tues.

They might be good - unlikely.

They mgiht be really, really bad - more likely.

On an aerlier comment, you might want to take a stroll Albany Rd.

I count 3 empty houses - stripped, nothing in. No sign or anything.

Look like repo's

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