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Salisbury Anyone?


babnye
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Yes it's a difficult balance, especially when under the Notice to Quit - very stressful for you. Bishopdown does have some really useful facilities and is very popular, it will be interesting to see what happens when the new homes are put in. Various housing plans seem to be on for the other suburbs around the city too, and though there will be more housing available I am not sure how this will filter down to house prices or desirability. Harnham, Fugglestone Red & Bishopdown seem to be earmarked for a lot of housing, but if like the new Alderbury housing mentioned earlier in this thread developments are priced at a premium over existing properties then what effect will that have? Not sure when the building work is due to start either, though I imagine developers won't be keen to start until the market picks up?

Salisbury definitely has its positives, like you say there are some good schools, it also has nice amenties, countryside is lovely, direct trains to London are a plus too. I also have friends and family around and am pretty settled. Just looking at it objectively I don't think the asking prices here are justified and am hoping to see some more sense in the market by autumn / winter. I'm not sure many vendors here are ready to accept a -30% off peak offer :blink:

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I've posted this on another post but just to add that I've just done a viewing on a property on at 285 out of interest. EA tells me in discussions that 250-300 is 'dead man's territory' and that if anyone seriously wants to move they will consider 250.

She also told me she thought prices here still had 8-10% to fall although then said that it was a good time to buy!

Hi Everyone,

I have read all your posts and I strongly believe that buying now would be a huge mistake. You have all said that nothing is moving and prices are not being reduced.

BE PATIENT SAVE MONEY AND STRESS

THE CRASH HAS NOT EVEN STARTED PROPERLY. THINK HIGHER INTEREST RATES AND INFLATION. THAT USUALLY DOES THE TRICK FOR ME.

The truth is that there is an immense amount of awful housing stock in and around salisbury which is terribly overpriced. Do not for one minute think that developers are going to start building in this climate. Even if you think you want to buy a house- don't!!

By the way, i speak as a sold to renter in salisbury with a sizeable deposit depreciating in banks- better that than investing it in a house which will fall in value even faster. I will eventually buy a house when the correction comes. That will be 18-24 months time.

Edited by richiep
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A collection of comments Salisbury:

(I'm not from Salisbury. I arrived in the early 90s - 1 bed flat 1.5 times local income, nice 3 bedder 3 times).

Salisbury gets hammered in economic slowdown.

Lots of reasons - low wages, very poor employment opportunities, lots of people arrive in the good time, fail in the bad times and sell up.

Salisbury employment is probably the worse it has ever been. Don't be fooled by the 0.0001 unemployment rate. Salisbury is becoming a bit of benefit town - pensioners, back-back syndrome, teen mums.

Private sector employment has been shrinking rapidly since the early 2000s - look at the census/lLA stats

One really weird thing about Salisbury is the number of self-employed builder/construction - If Im giving another 'Painter and Decorator' business card from a someone in the pub I'll scream. A high percentage men go and work for the public sector- hospital, army etc. These jobs have always paid crap. They do the job for 10-15 years and then come to the decision that they need to become more 'enterprising' to make money, so they setup as a painter decorator (most common), 'handy-man', general builder i.e. jack of no trade. Walk around a residential area and see how builders vans you see.

Commuting. 'Its near London' No its not - and with SW trains, London is getting further away. Yes, I know a lot of people commute. God knows why - 15 minutes to get to station (park???), 90 minutes to Waterloo, 30 minutes tubing to somewhere with paying jobs. Thats a good 4-5 hours of your workday and a good 10K of your post-tax pay!

Have you tried driving anywhere at rush hour - 1 hours driving only gets you about 20 miles.

Employment - never great, getting worse. Mahle gone - 500 direct jobs + 500+ indirect, FP teetering on going under, Hi-flex gone. Land command - relocated outside of commutable distance.

Local-ish employment opportunities gone - Andover has been gutted, Bstoke is all BTLs, S-ton is going the same way as the football team.

Housing demand - low. There really is not a lot of squaddy families renting in Salisbury. I'd guess less than 100.

Don;t believe the hype about Porton - UKGOV is consoladating all the nasty chemical agencies to Porton (safer) but the typical Porton employee is on 15K - rabbit eye dripper types. There is no such thing as a 'highly paid Scientist' in government research.

Rentals. I don't wander into BF - nothing to wander for - I cannot get into the One-stop as its the local night time meet up stop for every dole-y/chav in the area - why don;'y they walk an extra 15minutes and sit in McDs????

I would guess people (inadvisably) buying BTLs has propped up Salisbury from 2002->2006. There appears to be a huge over supply of rentals - rule of thumb if a rental sits empty for more than 1month than you are in trouble. MY favourite rental at the moment is the shop convervision opposite the Bedwin Street chippy. Empty since it wa finished, gone thru about 3 different agencies, all going to 'Let' despite no one ever moving in. Now empty with no sign.

Mortgage finance. If there was ever a town dependent on high multiples, no dposits, self-certs then Salisbury is it.

We are moving to 3 times single earner, 20% percent deposit mortgage finance. Do the sums.

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A collection of comments Salisbury:

(I'm not from Salisbury. I arrived in the early 90s - 1 bed flat 1.5 times local income, nice 3 bedder 3 times).

Salisbury gets hammered in economic slowdown.

Lots of reasons - low wages, very poor employment opportunities, lots of people arrive in the good time, fail in the bad times and sell up.

Salisbury employment is probably the worse it has ever been. Don't be fooled by the 0.0001 unemployment rate. Salisbury is becoming a bit of benefit town - pensioners, back-back syndrome, teen mums.

Private sector employment has been shrinking rapidly since the early 2000s - look at the census/lLA stats

One really weird thing about Salisbury is the number of self-employed builder/construction - If Im giving another 'Painter and Decorator' business card from a someone in the pub I'll scream. A high percentage men go and work for the public sector- hospital, army etc. These jobs have always paid crap. They do the job for 10-15 years and then come to the decision that they need to become more 'enterprising' to make money, so they setup as a painter decorator (most common), 'handy-man', general builder i.e. jack of no trade. Walk around a residential area and see how builders vans you see.

Commuting. 'Its near London' No its not - and with SW trains, London is getting further away. Yes, I know a lot of people commute. God knows why - 15 minutes to get to station (park???), 90 minutes to Waterloo, 30 minutes tubing to somewhere with paying jobs. Thats a good 4-5 hours of your workday and a good 10K of your post-tax pay!

Have you tried driving anywhere at rush hour - 1 hours driving only gets you about 20 miles.

Employment - never great, getting worse. Mahle gone - 500 direct jobs + 500+ indirect, FP teetering on going under, Hi-flex gone. Land command - relocated outside of commutable distance.

Local-ish employment opportunities gone - Andover has been gutted, Bstoke is all BTLs, S-ton is going the same way as the football team.

Housing demand - low. There really is not a lot of squaddy families renting in Salisbury. I'd guess less than 100.

Don;t believe the hype about Porton - UKGOV is consoladating all the nasty chemical agencies to Porton (safer) but the typical Porton employee is on 15K - rabbit eye dripper types. There is no such thing as a 'highly paid Scientist' in government research.

Rentals. I don't wander into BF - nothing to wander for - I cannot get into the One-stop as its the local night time meet up stop for every dole-y/chav in the area - why don;'y they walk an extra 15minutes and sit in McDs????

I would guess people (inadvisably) buying BTLs has propped up Salisbury from 2002->2006. There appears to be a huge over supply of rentals - rule of thumb if a rental sits empty for more than 1month than you are in trouble. MY favourite rental at the moment is the shop convervision opposite the Bedwin Street chippy. Empty since it wa finished, gone thru about 3 different agencies, all going to 'Let' despite no one ever moving in. Now empty with no sign.

Mortgage finance. If there was ever a town dependent on high multiples, no dposits, self-certs then Salisbury is it.

We are moving to 3 times single earner, 20% percent deposit mortgage finance. Do the sums.

spyguy,

couldn't agree more. Salisbury is soon to get a big wake up call.

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spyguy,

couldn't agree more. Salisbury is soon to get a big wake up call.

richiep,

Here's an typical conversation that from the mid-90s.

Local-in-pub: 'Oh xxx pays terrible. Silly money. I wish I couldeanr more'.

Me - 'Why don't you go to Andover, They pay x+8K more'

Local - 'Oh, thats a long way'

Me, banging head on table, - ' Its less than 30 minutes commute'

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A collection of comments Salisbury:

(I'm not from Salisbury. I arrived in the early 90s - 1 bed flat 1.5 times local income, nice 3 bedder 3 times).

Salisbury gets hammered in economic slowdown.

Lots of reasons - low wages, very poor employment opportunities, lots of people arrive in the good time, fail in the bad times and sell up.

Salisbury employment is probably the worse it has ever been. Don't be fooled by the 0.0001 unemployment rate. Salisbury is becoming a bit of benefit town - pensioners, back-back syndrome, teen mums.

Private sector employment has been shrinking rapidly since the early 2000s - look at the census/lLA stats

One really weird thing about Salisbury is the number of self-employed builder/construction - If Im giving another 'Painter and Decorator' business card from a someone in the pub I'll scream. A high percentage men go and work for the public sector- hospital, army etc. These jobs have always paid crap. They do the job for 10-15 years and then come to the decision that they need to become more 'enterprising' to make money, so they setup as a painter decorator (most common), 'handy-man', general builder i.e. jack of no trade. Walk around a residential area and see how builders vans you see.

Commuting. 'Its near London' No its not - and with SW trains, London is getting further away. Yes, I know a lot of people commute. God knows why - 15 minutes to get to station (park???), 90 minutes to Waterloo, 30 minutes tubing to somewhere with paying jobs. Thats a good 4-5 hours of your workday and a good 10K of your post-tax pay!

Have you tried driving anywhere at rush hour - 1 hours driving only gets you about 20 miles.

Employment - never great, getting worse. Mahle gone - 500 direct jobs + 500+ indirect, FP teetering on going under, Hi-flex gone. Land command - relocated outside of commutable distance.

Local-ish employment opportunities gone - Andover has been gutted, Bstoke is all BTLs, S-ton is going the same way as the football team.

Housing demand - low. There really is not a lot of squaddy families renting in Salisbury. I'd guess less than 100.

Don;t believe the hype about Porton - UKGOV is consoladating all the nasty chemical agencies to Porton (safer) but the typical Porton employee is on 15K - rabbit eye dripper types. There is no such thing as a 'highly paid Scientist' in government research.

Rentals. I don't wander into BF - nothing to wander for - I cannot get into the One-stop as its the local night time meet up stop for every dole-y/chav in the area - why don;'y they walk an extra 15minutes and sit in McDs????

I would guess people (inadvisably) buying BTLs has propped up Salisbury from 2002->2006. There appears to be a huge over supply of rentals - rule of thumb if a rental sits empty for more than 1month than you are in trouble. MY favourite rental at the moment is the shop convervision opposite the Bedwin Street chippy. Empty since it wa finished, gone thru about 3 different agencies, all going to 'Let' despite no one ever moving in. Now empty with no sign.

Mortgage finance. If there was ever a town dependent on high multiples, no dposits, self-certs then Salisbury is it.

We are moving to 3 times single earner, 20% percent deposit mortgage finance. Do the sums.

Really interesting post.

I spoke to an EA regarding a house we'd viewed which is on for 299k. The woman is desperate to sell but EA rings this morning and says what about 280k?

I tell her we're going to try and rent. Market all over the place. Who knows what's going to happen over the summer and especially to the 250-300k zone.

Her response?

'I think you're being very wise'

What has happened to EAs? A truth serum or something?

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And as if by magic (I'd forgotten FP publish their results today)...

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/479075ce-33c6-11...144feabdc0.html

Really, really bad figures - new sales fall 40%

There's a bit of b*ll*x about a distribution deal with Tescos for protection products but the FSA is outlawing/regulating protection products away.

If you've ever talked to anyone with a payment protection policy - any one, not just FP - you'll understand why.

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Babyne, thanks for posting your latest response from an EA, despite the "bounce" going on around here they obviously know the score and I wouldn't be surprised if plenty of the houses currently showing as SSTC appear back on the market in a couple of months. Spyguy - thanks for the link. Its is definitely watch and wait for me, just like it has been for the last 4 years :rolleyes: I think this area is being extremely stubborn but the drops will come. Sooner or later people are going to have to accept facts about just how overvalued their properties have been! Things may look very different this time next year. In the meantime even though renting has its ups and downs there seems to be quite a bit of choice around at the moment, guessing that has a lot to do with people here who would rather rent than sell in the falling market.

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Great debate guys,

just a thought.. why on earth would anyone buy a house in the 250-300k bracket? Just for fun 18 months ago i offered 249.999k on a new build in alderbury on the market at a hilarious 325k. It eventually sold 6 months ago at 255k. The builder held out for 12 months for 6k... and the purchaser paid the extra stamp duty!! These new build houses are such poor quality cr*p!

I believe there is very little worth buying at the mo.. just keep renting and the crash (the real crash) will come

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Just added today's points to the graph. Rightmove is showing 237 properties for sale and 139 to rent in Salisbury. That's the lowest number of 'for sale' and the highest number 'to rent' since I've been collecting figures last November. Drawing lines forward through both data sets suggests that by the beginning of July there will be more houses to rent than to buy in Salisbury.

I'm not saying that will be the case but it is looking like there is a real overhang of places to rent. If it carries on like this there will be real drops in rent as landlords try to avoid 'voids'. If rents drop too far then they'll be making losses and off-loading back onto the for sale market. All those btls coming home to roost should start to dent the sales market and give us some more choice and value. It will take time to feed through.

If you can wait to buy, it should be worthwhile.

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I've found a house to rent on BFarm - bigger, nicer garden and only £70 a month more expensive than this one (our rent hasn't really changed for 6 years!).

Just told the landlords!

Thank God for that. Feel much better just waiting it out and seeing what happens over the summer.

Thanks all

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More comments - not specific to SPx.

'ish' means 1 year either side.

All my own humble opinion. DYOR people!

The private sector rental (PSR) market is unusual.

One - rentals tracks local wages. No one brags about how much their place costs to rent. When I rent, I choose to significantly underconsume (economics speak) housing resources relative to my income. When I had no dependents my criteria was basically bed, small kitchen (oh if only Remoskas were available then...) access to shower. Sr*w the garden - I'm not paying to cut someones grass. Scr*w reception rooms - I was a lot younger, I went out for enternainment or laid on bed reading. You do need a minimalistic mind-set - think Japanese - but it works; my GF was shocked that I kept my belongings in a stack of cardboard boxes - Muji boxes I might add - esp. considering my earnings.

The comment about rents 'not going up much' is due to the fact local wages have not gone up much - Slaisbury, UK, the West.

Two, PSR is occupied by a small demographic - relatively young people moving to an new area and corporate leases. Squaddies living outside of barracks are statistically insignificant - even in SPx.

PSR demand is driven by economic activity being ahead local employment supply. The classic case of this, which applied to me, was the Thames valley in the late 80s - a large number of high tech companies set-up along the M4 corridor (close to Heathrow) needed to recruit a lot of engineering/tech bodies in an area which was populated by (putting it nicely) the descendents of a Victorian industrial town (Reading) and 60s slum clearance - Bracknell, Bstoke i.e. the local people available lacked the 'skills'. Come the 90s recession, the layoffs started, the relatively young workforce (excluding the unfortunates who bought) fled - back to parents (some), abroad (a lot - most of the people I worked with emigrated), or dossed in Spain (a few). My job lasted better than most. When my flatmates left (93ish) I was going to go to but the LL let me stay on a pro-rate rent of 1/4. I left a few months later because the bills - mainly standing charge - were to high (for me) - so moved into another shared house and cut my spending in half.

Again, all easy when you are young and foot free. I know its different when you have dependents/family.

PSR supply is normal a result of 'working abroad a few years' or inherited property. It was very rare to buy an 'investment' property - you would have needed cash or, at best, 50% deposit to get a mortgage.

The cyclical demand of the PSR is the reason why the PSR is relatively small - come an economic slowdown a PSR property yield is negative - 0% yield minus Ctax, rates, maintenance etc.

How is this relavent to now/SPx?

Up to 2002ish, in SPx, and everwhere else, hosuing followed the tradiional FTB->FamilyHome->Retirement sequence. However, in 2003ish BTL started. People in the 'FamilyHome' stage started remortaging ant buying the FTB satge. People who would have been in the FTB stage could not afford/compete with the former.

This act of financial suicide continued until early 2007ish. Then it all went wrong on the funding side. Guess what? BTL is not 'a license to print money' (as was expressed to my by a EA-based financial advisor). It does not take a genius to work out that letting on a 2.5% yield will end in tears - tradionally, PSR yields have been 15%+

We are slowly working our way out of the funding stage - you want a BTL mortgage then you pay 9%+ and need a 40% deposit.

Now we are hitting the 'fall in demand' stage otherwise known as 'Where did all the tennants go?'

PSR demand is very flexible. If you earning a lot then a nice Penthouse will impress the girls. If you are brassic then sleeping on your mums/mate's sofa is pretty good option.

SPx never had much in the way of PSR demand - the local companies do not pay enough to attract people from outside.

SPx is not that attractive to the younger non-locals - it manages to be too old and blue rinse and too chavvy (Bemmy).

BHx is a better bet - it has better jobs and better bars and the beach.

So what next?

Well most (70%+) of BTL will be sold - either by the owner or the official receiver. SPx prices back to 2004ish.

Ask around, you'll be shocked at how underwater some peoples BTLs are - even if they managed to get tennants.

I know one couple (FOAF) who have a £1M mortagge on a number of flats in Soton. I would guess, at themo, they are down at least 300K. It really is only at matter of time until they are bust - losing their BTL 'portfolio' and main home.

Financial rule #1 - Leverage works both ways!

I would expect SPx prices to be back to 2002ish by the end of the year. Then higher IRs (UK IR are going to go thru the roof - mortgage rates 10%+), public sector spending/employment to be slashed, private sector employment slahsed - how long FP?

And while this pain is going on, 5 years of house pruchaes to be dumped back on the market just as even more owner-occs are trying to sell.

The UK as a whole will be in recession til 2011ish. Tne you well have 10-15 years of pretty stagnant growth.

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Interesting. Our current landlords are clearly going to sell (although they pretend they are moving back in - could this be a CGT avoidance ploy??) and we found out from an EA who came to value the other day that they have another property in Amesbury which they are also selling up.

Getting out of the market quickly.

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Interesting. Our current landlords are clearly going to sell (although they pretend they are moving back in - could this be a CGT avoidance ploy??) and we found out from an EA who came to value the other day that they have another property in Amesbury which they are also selling up.

Getting out of the market quickly.

Assuming they have 2 rentals and are living elsewhere then they would have to live in one for 12 months (I think) then sell it, move into the next for 12 months then sell.

Not sure about the length of time, but you do have to live in a house for a number of months before it is classed as your main residence.

If they are using a slocitor for the sales then (I think) he would be obliged to tell the IR that they are trying to avoid CGT. I'd expect the solictor to 'advise' against hte plan - its pretty easy for the IR to find out if people are trying to dodge CGT on a rental property.

Of course, they could avoid CGT by sellign the house for less than they bought it for ....

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They bought it for 190k in 2001! Not there yet.

I wouldn't put it passed them to lie about living there. They've got a bogstandard home owner mortgage (we used to get calls/letters here about it) rather than a BTL and have offered to sell the property to us behind the letting agents back.

Both senior officers in the army too which is nice and honorable!

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I really cannot understand try and fiddle their mortgage and insurance company when letting out a home.

Consider the following scenarios:

1) House burns down (rare) or suffers some major damage - car crashes into it, subsidence, boiler leaks and ceiling falls in (some a lot less rare).

You'll have to pretend to live their i.e. get rid of the tenant or pay them off. What if the tenant wants paying off?

What happens if the tenants belongings are damaged or the tenant is injured?

Likelyhood is the the home insurer finds out and your claim is invalidated.

Basically, if you are going to try save money on not declaring you have a tenant you might as well save more by not bothering with insurance as the likelyhood is that you will not be able to claim on it.

2) This is my untrained legal mind at work.

Tenant stops paying rent.

How do you serve an eviction notice on someone who, legally, does not live there?

The case goes to court and the tenant's solictor knows or finds out you have not declared the tenant.

The case will probably be bounced out.

As far as morals goes, well that up to the individual.

As far as money and law goes - well that's a different matter.

As far as 'top' milatary goes ... well, the remember the brains trust that was the Major bloke who tried cheating the 'Who wants to be a millionaire?' Jeez, how can you have much faith in an operation who promotes someone that dumb.

Incidently, claim to fame(??), i did see Major WWTBAM walking round Salisbury when he did Wife swap with the now late Jade Goody.

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Mmmm, I've thought about the point 2 bit.Have to admit I am a solicitor but this is far from my field!

I think the question of the charge over the property and any deception to get the mortgage does not vitiate title, otherwise it wipes out the lease and the subsequent notice to quit.

I think the lease stands and can be enforced but that this could be a case of mortgage fraud if they get a residential mortgage at a better rate than a BTL mortgage. But what can you do about it?

I am thinking of writing, once we've moved out, to HMRC and building society just to ensure they know.

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Just had another EA round to value landlord's house.

Had a good chat with her. Why is it that EA's almost seem straightforward and frank these days?

She said that the proposed development at the back of the house would put off buyers and she could see the house falling in value compared to others bedded in deeper in the estate away from the fields where the devlopment was going to take place.

She also confirmed that 250 offers were 'nothing to be ashamed of' in this market for houses in the 250-300 bracket. Although her view was that the local market has picked up since January and has been quite buoyant!

There is no way I am buying this house now! Interestingly, from our perspective, she mentioned that she thought it would be silly of the landlords to try and sell an empty house as it might take a long time and they were better off keeping us here. She said she would tell them that.

Really interesting post.

I spoke to an EA regarding a house we'd viewed which is on for 299k. The woman is desperate to sell but EA rings this morning and says what about 280k?

I tell her we're going to try and rent. Market all over the place. Who knows what's going to happen over the summer and especially to the 250-300k zone.

Her response?

'I think you're being very wise'

What has happened to EAs? A truth serum or something?

Truth serum? It's reality. Agents need potential buyers as friends. Both know you have your head screwed on and are looking to gain your trust. They are both telling you that they will be on your side if you put in a low offer is how I read it. 1st agent primed you with the empty house argument and the new development argument. I would say she would really welcome an offer of £240, which you might then take to £249. You would have to go in at £240 to leave a margin for owners to have the satisfaction of squeezing you for more.

Now you have found somewhere to rent, if you have not yet committed, you are in a strong position to make a cheeky offer and carry it through - if you judge it to be a sound thing to do.

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Truth serum? It's reality. Agents need potential buyers as friends. Both know you have your head screwed on and are looking to gain your trust. They are both telling you that they will be on your side if you put in a low offer is how I read it. 1st agent primed you with the empty house argument and the new development argument. I would say she would really welcome an offer of £240, which you might then take to £249. You would have to go in at £240 to leave a margin for owners to have the satisfaction of squeezing you for more.

Now you have found somewhere to rent, if you have not yet committed, you are in a strong position to make a cheeky offer and carry it through - if you judge it to be a sound thing to do.

We are talking about two different properties here. First property is the current rented property which the landlords offered to sell privately for 280. The landlords are moving back in if we don't buy - that's their story anyway.

The second is a property on for 285.

At present, offers at 250 with a desperate seller might work but I don't think the psychology of the market has changed here sufficiently for lower offers to be considered unless seller is completely desperate.

I think a dead summer and a few low prices on rightmove sold section might start to change things. Sellers are still too cocky although EAs talk a different story.

To be honest, I wouldn't see either house as being what I'd chose for myself in a perfect world so why bother with the debt? It's not like prices will be shooting up any time soon

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SORRY- AM I MISSING SOMETHING?

WHY WOULD ANYONE BUY AT THE MOMENT?

I CAN THINK OF NO REASON AT ALL

That's the conclusion I've come to as well but for a moment I did consider.......having kids and having to move is hard. But it does them no good if we lumber ourselves with tons of debt in a falling market

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We are talking about two different properties here. First property is the current rented property which the landlords offered to sell privately for 280. The landlords are moving back in if we don't buy - that's their story anyway.

The second is a property on for 285.

2 properties is what I understood.

At present, offers at 250 with a desperate seller might work but I don't think the psychology of the market has changed here sufficiently for lower offers to be considered unless seller is completely desperate.

I think a dead summer and a few low prices on rightmove sold section might start to change things. Sellers are still too cocky although EAs talk a different story.

Agree on EAs and sellers. I am only commenting, because to me EA is inviting an offer at £250 - and for a deal to be struck at £250, you would have to start at £240, both of which seem to be below what you would consider putting as a realistic offer.

To be honest, I wouldn't see either house as being what I'd chose for myself in a perfect world so why bother with the debt? It's not like prices will be shooting up any time soon

Fair enough, I would not either.

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