How High Will Unemployment Go?

[billybong]

http://www.metro.co.uk/money/article.html?...mp;in_a_source=

June 2007.

Economicallyinactive.

"The figure increased by 77,000 in the latest quarter to 7.95m, the highest figure since comparable records began in 1971. "

+++++++++++++++++

Then add in about 2 million officially unemployed so far in 2009 so that would take the total upto about 10 million already.

By 2010/2011 it could easily total 12/13 million or more.

[Guest Mr Parry]

So how bad is it really in the UK?

How many unemployed since Jan the 1st?

What's the tally now?

[cells]

The question that needs to be answered is not just how high unemployment will go, but will it ever come back down again, and my fear is that it won't, at least not for a long time.

This is becuase the UK economy has been over reliant on oil and financial services, both of which are in decline, and I can see no alternative engine to pull us out of the mire. Add into that the approaching energy crisis, and I see a bleak future.

Have you forgotten socialism rule #1????

say its not so comrade!!

socialism rule #1

increase the minimum wage to £100ph and everyone is happy as Larry.

We will just create wealth by writing it into law!!1!

[cells]

It's good you brought up the energy crisis because this is where a lot of jobs could be created. Every housing development in the country should have it's own micro wind farm and the turbines could be built by Rolls Royce as they have the ability factory space and more factory space could be created in the west midlands in our dying car factories. Also the seven barrage would create tens of thousands of jobs, construction jobs could be created fast tracking the nuclear power stations and thousands more jobs could be created with a massive social housing program.

People say that wind is not worth the investment, it darn will be 5 or 6 years from now, also we would be learning skills that we could sell to other countries.

Also motor cycles, British motor cycles where the best in the world at one time, once the oil price rockets again due to peak oil, motor cycles will become very fashionable again.

There are ways to put millions back to work as long as the government forgets it's fixation with keeping an unsustainable housing bubble afloat.

None of those things would create a net increase in employment.

In fact it is more likely there would be a net decrease in employment.

Plus what is this obsession with employment. Is going to work with people you don't particularly like doing a job you don't particularly like something that makes you lot happy?

Have any of you seen that program of late, where a workaholic family is shipped out to some island to live for two or so weeks. They seem happy enough and none of them while there are “employed”.

Most of us need “employment” because the laws and tax system is such to force us to be employed.

[Pick It Down]

It's good you brought up the energy crisis because this is where a lot of jobs could be created. Every housing development in the country should have it's own micro wind farm and the turbines could be built by Rolls Royce as they have the ability factory space and more factory space could be created in the west midlands in our dying car factories. Also the seven barrage would create tens of thousands of jobs, construction jobs could be created fast tracking the nuclear power stations and thousands more jobs could be created with a massive social housing program.

People say that wind is not worth the investment, it darn will be 5 or 6 years from now, also we would be learning skills that we could sell to other countries.

Also motor cycles, British motor cycles where the best in the world at one time, once the oil price rockets again due to peak oil, motor cycles will become very fashionable again.

There are ways to put millions back to work as long as the government forgets it's fixation with keeping an unsustainable housing bubble afloat.

Oh ffs, I thought this forum would have more sense than this renewable energy claptrap. It has never been profitable, and does not survive without huge government subsidy. It is, as you would probably say, not sustainable.

[europbaron]

Oh ffs, I thought this forum would have more sense than this renewable energy claptrap. It has never been profitable, and does not survive without huge government subsidy. It is, as you would probably say, not sustainable.

Where does the term "renewable energy" come from anyway? As much energy is renewed by burning coal.

Whether it is economically viable (I see no reason why it needs to be profitable) or not depends on the cost of other energy sources too. There are other reasons to justify investment in it, the oft quoted and debated enviromental concerns, and, in my opinion more importantly, the independence of supply.

[Pick It Down]

(I see no reason why it needs to be profitable)

That explains everything. Thank you.

[grumpy-old-man-returns]

this fantastic link posted by p.p. should give you an idea of what the unemployment rate will be.

edited:

"Conclusion

To summarize: the world is currently undergoing an economic shock every bit as big as the Great Depression shock of 1929-30. Looking just at the US leads one to overlook how alarming the current situation is even in comparison with 1929-30."

Edited April 11, 2009 by grumpy-old-man-returns

[Injin]

Well, with a bit of luck employment will be about 100% in 2013

[grumpy-old-man-returns]

Well, with a bit of luck employment will be about 100% in 2013

people really have no idea just how many unproductive, bad-back benefit claiming lazy fat fookers we have in this glorious nation of ours.

[Injin]

people really have no idea just how many unproductive, bad-back benefit claiming lazy fat fookers we have in this glorious nation of ours.

They are mostly avoiding imposed costs, to be honest.

Minus the imposed cost and minus the benefit, they won't have to do much to get fed and watered.

[grumpy-old-man-returns]

They are mostly avoiding imposed costs, to be honest.

Minus the imposed cost and minus the benefit, they won't have to do much to get fed and watered.

yes but when the benefits system collapses & all benefits are cut, their sky tv is cut off, there 2 year old car can't be paid for & their greedy fat bellies are empty of food & booze, what or who will they take it out on or steal it from.

It takes a few years to make the change to a bit of self sufficiency in all areas, these people are going to get a crash course. harfookenhar imo.

[Injin]

yes but when the benefits system collapses & all benefits are cut, their sky tv is cut off, there 2 year old car can't be paid for & their greedy fat bellies are empty of food & booze, what or who will they take it out on or steal it from.

It takes a few years to make the change to a bit of self sufficiency in all areas, these people are going to get a crash course. harfookenhar imo.

Maybe.

I dunno though, GoM.

I think that the level of economically inclined people on benefits is higher than in those in other areas of the population. They place value on their own time and leisure (for good or ill) and as my old maths professor said "lazy people made everything worthwhile."

What I mean is that yes they are lazy, but they are also unambitious and prone to shortcuts. If doing a bit is the easiest way to get some resources, they'll take it, no problem. All generalisations, of course.

[nohpc]

My father has an old car, his house is paid for and no debts. All the money he is paid is really his, except bills, which I mostly pay anyway. Mums happy being happy.

Who needs anything else?

Greedy people who sell these

do you still live at home saddo?

[DoctorJ]

yes but when the benefits system collapses & all benefits are cut, their sky tv is cut off, there 2 year old car can't be paid for & their greedy fat bellies are empty of food & booze, what or who will they take it out on or steal it from.

It takes a few years to make the change to a bit of self sufficiency in all areas, these people are going to get a crash course. harfookenhar imo.

But we should be grateful that we have jobs so that we are able to support the weak and feckless and lazy. We are all enriching society with our hard work

[lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!)]

this fantastic link posted by p.p. should give you an idea of what the unemployment rate will be.

edited:

"Conclusion

To summarize: the world is currently undergoing an economic shock every bit as big as the Great Depression shock of 1929-30. Looking just at the US leads one to overlook how alarming the current situation is even in comparison with 1929-30."

To summarize: the world is currently undergoing an economic shock every bit as big as the Great Depression shock of 1929-30. Looking just at the US leads one to overlook how alarming the current situation is even in comparison with 1929-30.

The good news, of course, is that the policy response is very different. The question now is whether that policy response will work. For the answer, stay tuned for our next column.

yep even more government intervention this time

should make it even worse

maybe they can trash the currencies and cause serious civil unrest also

Edited April 11, 2009 by lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!)

[juvenal]

I have a "gap" of around six months after I took voluntary redundancy as I knew I was going to start a university course later in the year. During that time I played poker part-time to generate some income and did some studying as I was entering a degree course in 2nd year. Any creative suggestions on how this unexplicable behaviour (in the eyes of HR) is best covered?

As a retired uni academic, and a business owner, I would be impressed by someone who used the 6 months to maximise their degree studies via preparation. Mentioning the the poker element would depend entirely on the firm's activities, the company 'culture', and to some extent, on the age of the interviewer.

[Y-QUERK]

27 feet.

[grumpy-old-man-returns]

yep even more government intervention this time

should make it even worse

maybe they can trash the currencies and cause serious civil unrest also

evening lowrentyieldmakessense(honest)

I bet there hasn't been 1 argument since I posted last over there.

I bet Ker is missing me though.

[lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!)]

evening lowrentyieldmakessense(honest)

I bet there hasn't been 1 argument since I posted last over there.

I bet Ker is missing me though.

dunno

dispassion keeps trying or is trying

[Sybil13]

This is the real tragedy of greed amongst bankers and estate agents - real people will suffer

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/cornwall/7994428.stm

I know that unemployment is a real blight on our society and its affects are so erosive

HOUSE PRICES RISING - OH NO IT ACTUALLY SAID THEY ARE FALLING -

According to the CEBR report , (that everyone is quoting on the news and press that actually said property prices were about to fall another 10% on top of the 25% falls already sustained giving a 35% drop from peak putting a £300000 property at £195000), :

The group said if approvals continued to rise to about 50,000 a month by the late summer, house prices were likely to fall by only a further 8 to 10 per cent.

Under this model, price falls would start to bottom out by the beginning of 2010, implying a much slower rate of decline this year than was seen during 2008.

The CEBR added that if mortgage approvals rose to 60,000 or 70,000 a month, this might be enough to offset rising unemployment and could lead to house prices bottoming out by the third quarter of this year.

However, the group said it was more likely that mortgage approvals would only "tick up slowly".

Oh so that isn't going to "offset unemployment" then, sorry I must have misunderstood!

[steve99]

There will be no limit to the unemployment in the types of jobs that can be cheaper and more efficiently elsewhere.

Driven to the extreme, every job that can be transferred, outsourced, offshored where it makes financial sense to do so will be lost. Moreover, as the local economy becomes more mired in debt/cost burdens there will be little home demand for goods. Companies that work on a global basis will find that the markets they wish to service are abroad anyway, so their business may as well be too. Also the government doesn't give a shit about this country or its people, in fact it despises its past, under these circumstances it is hardly unpatriotic to abandon the UK and not give a stuff yourself either as an individual or as a company.

The damage done over the last decade has been papered over with debt. more debt is being ordered to continue the damage and do more papering.

I agree, but what is depressing is that when the Tories get back in, they will also cheer on this process, they in fact fully encouraged the outsourcing of manufacturing back in the 80's in order to punish lower paid workers who in their view shouldnt have a say in anything.

There were already large numbers of people without work in the so-called boom years (not always counted, could be on IB or be unpaid carer or housewife etc). The real problem is that if the economy recovers these people go to the back of the jobs queue. The idiots you often find in recruitment agencies or HR departments will write off people who are deemed to have "gaps" in their employment history. The cry goes up "We need migrant workers to do the jobs local people don't want to do".

For a long time I've not regarded myself as being patriotic in any way. Too many of the people in the establishment have waged war on their fellow Brits.

At one interview I had a few years ago, the potential manager made such a fuss over a 3 month gap that I reaslised that I had blown the inteview so I decided to argue the toss with this tw*t and asked him why it was a problem, his response was that they dont employ people with gaps and quite rightly! once again I asked him why? and his reply was that for the same reason that they dont employ criminals, because they cant be trusted, I told him this made no sense whatsoever which of course got him extremelly wound up and who the hell was I to come into his office to start asking him questions, with my reply being 'you asked me in here' 'you already read my CV', 'you obviously only got me in here to tell me off about this gap obsession of yours' Needless to say, I didnt get the job, nor would I have wanted to work for this ****.

[wonderpup]

At one interview I had a few years ago, the potential manager made such a fuss over a 3 month gap that I reaslised that I had blown the inteview so I decided to argue the toss with this tw*t and asked him why it was a problem, his response was that they dont employ people with gaps and quite rightly! once again I asked him why? and his reply was that for the same reason that they dont employ criminals, because they cant be trusted, I told him this made no sense whatsoever which of course got him extremelly wound up and who the hell was I to come into his office to start asking him questions, with my reply being 'you asked me in here' 'you already read my CV', 'you obviously only got me in here to tell me off about this gap obsession of yours' Needless to say, I didnt get the job, nor would I have wanted to work for this ****.

What's kind of funny about this is the fact that he only knew about the gap because you told him about it- you could just as easily lied, or invented some cover story. So his basic position was that you could not be trusted because you were honest enought to tell him about it.

There used to be a word for people like this; 'jobsworths', as in 'it's more than my jobs worth' 9to excercise a single iota of intelligent thought.0

I once knew a project manager who was so ******** retentive than when a regional manager turned up unexpectedly one day he discovered the entire department was sitting in the pub across the road, having walked out that morning en masse in protest

[aa3]

Based on a lot of thinking and reading I believe automation will be capable of replacing every job by 2060. So in the year 2060 we would have close to 100% unemployment based on the current definition.

In the next ten years I only see unemployment going to 40-50%. Spain is already at 15.5% unemployment and one estimate I agree with estimated their unemployment rate could go to 27-30% by the end of 2010. If the rate of job loss keeps accelerating it could go even higher in Spain.

It is across the western world too the massive job losses. I don't see any reason why it would turn around. There is no new industry on the horizon likely to create jobs in the millions. The last gasp was to run to construction and housing which the automation hasn't gotten too yet.

[Greg Bowman]

We're mortgage free - we have a great time - new boiler being put in, solar panel and remodelling the bathroom. Admittedly this is all paid up front by the savings on the usury.

THe great thing is the lack of worry about bills. We don't do holidays etc as we're both in our 40's and if we get the chop then we'll never regain the earning power so monies is going into savings etc. Pointless changing careers at the moment due to Browns dreamland economy! So still the work drudge but can tell management to f.o. as necessary (and have done but more politely)...

So you are 'free' but still do the work drudge but can still mangement to FFO?' we don't do holidays sounds like you died at 40 and are going to get buried at 80. You sound like a shop steward from the 70's.

You aren't free you are someone elses wage slave - which is why PAYE's will never understand people who take risks and borrow yes borrow to create your job. You will find my friend that many real entrepreneurs are lookng forward to the ensuing chaos to generate real money, and we also have a life on the way through. So when you are smelling of cabbage and pissing your pants in your old age you can look back on all those memories like that great view of the solar panel install from 2007

And remember a career is just another word for a job without overtime, you can't eat your solar panel.

Bet you and you missus are a joy socially Money isn't love, courage or happiness it is just a token and you have made it your God.

Edited April 12, 2009 by Greg Bowman