nohpc Posted April 9, 2009 Share Posted April 9, 2009 I thought it was a bear market bounce but I think we may be at the start of a long bull market now. Struggling with what to do with my stocks and shares ISA allowance which is currently in cash. Invest now or wait a few months hoping for a further drop? I'm torn between knowing what I want. Further drop would mean my current investments which have boomed over the last few weeks would go back into the red but then I could invest more money at cheap stock prices. Any opinions? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Britney's Piers Posted April 9, 2009 Share Posted April 9, 2009 (edited) I will tell you the answer in a couple of months time. Edited April 9, 2009 by Britney's Piers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nohpc Posted April 9, 2009 Author Share Posted April 9, 2009 I will tell you the answer in a couple of months time. But by then the stock market may have left us all in it's bull stampede dust. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the primitive Posted April 9, 2009 Share Posted April 9, 2009 But by then the stock market may have left us all in it's bull stampede dust. It must fall. where are the profits? The BIG question is will there be a sustained rally at all. We could very well do a Japan. Nikkei now, what, 9000? All time high is 40,000 Dow now back over 8000. Up from 6500 - no idea how this is justified. Keep the faith (and the cash!) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Te Mata Posted April 9, 2009 Share Posted April 9, 2009 It seems that bank profitability has been contrived with some success (courtesy of our children and grandchildren's labour). This coming earnings season will be very interesting for the non-bank sectors IMO. I'm sceptical to be frank. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Number79 Posted April 9, 2009 Share Posted April 9, 2009 drop a line to fp. He knows what to do. closed your shorts yet? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Number79 Posted April 9, 2009 Share Posted April 9, 2009 I thought it was a bear market bounce but I think we may be at the start of a long bull market now. Struggling with what to do with my stocks and shares ISA allowance which is currently in cash. Invest now or wait a few months hoping for a further drop? I'm torn between knowing what I want. Further drop would mean my current investments which have boomed over the last few weeks would go back into the red but then I could invest more money at cheap stock prices. Any opinions? Bear rally, still got some legs then down we go hard and fast. My uneducated opinion only. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
durhamborn Posted April 9, 2009 Share Posted April 9, 2009 I thought it was a bear market bounce but I think we may be at the start of a long bull market now. Struggling with what to do with my stocks and shares ISA allowance which is currently in cash. Invest now or wait a few months hoping for a further drop? I'm torn between knowing what I want. Further drop would mean my current investments which have boomed over the last few weeks would go back into the red but then I could invest more money at cheap stock prices. Any opinions? I moved all my cash ISAs in Asia Pacific ex Japan 4 weeks ago +27% so far.Could be pull backs but IMO we are at the start of a decade long bull market.I expect Asia Pacific ex Japan in sterling terms to rise 200%+ over the next decade. Im investing the full ISA allowance every month and will continue to do so for at least 5 years.The last decade saw malinvestment in property.The markets have been in a bear market for over 10 years.Asia is best placed,even better if sterling gets trashed, Take a look at Taiwan on this chart.High increasing volume and sharp rise. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ETWII Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearfacts Posted April 9, 2009 Share Posted April 9, 2009 It seems that bank profitability has been contrived with some success (courtesy of our children and grandchildren's labour).This coming earnings season will be very interesting for the non-bank sectors IMO. I'm sceptical to be frank. +1 . Didnt BOA and Citi pull a similar stunt to start the latest rally off a month or so ago ? Seems that the profits were actually something to do with tax payer cash being pumped into banks via AIG and nothing to do with any pick up in the economy. I doubt its coincidence that Well Fargo release a statement regarding projected profits after the market has started to slip back again. Haven't they just changed the accounting rules too so they can value assets as they please rather than mark to market ? I have always found that scepticism serves you well in life - sadly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pete.hpc Posted April 9, 2009 Share Posted April 9, 2009 nohpc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the end is a bit nigher Posted April 9, 2009 Share Posted April 9, 2009 Depends if the QE is inflationary or not. The gamble at the moment is that it will be. If things that were once £20 now sell for £30, then a company's profit will increase accordingly. This means that the share price will follow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
contractor Posted April 9, 2009 Share Posted April 9, 2009 Take a look at Taiwan on this chart.High increasing volume and sharp rise. Isn't that similar to their earthquake risk profile? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
durhamborn Posted April 9, 2009 Share Posted April 9, 2009 Isn't that similar to their earthquake risk profile? Yes 15% Taiwan,20% Hong Kong,35% Australia,20% South Korea,10% Singapore. Go where capital will be created going forward. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted April 9, 2009 Share Posted April 9, 2009 IMPO, the tide will go out one last time this year and then that will be the time to get in. When the tide goes out it go a long way. What would have happened to the FTSE next Tuesday if the apparent Manchester terrorist attacks had succeeded this weekend Obama is riding a wave, he has invested a trillion and he has Hope... but by the Summer even he will lose some shine and the reporting season will report low profits I imagine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
durhamborn Posted April 9, 2009 Share Posted April 9, 2009 IMPO, the tide will go out one last time this year and then that will be the time to get in. When the tide goes out it go a long way.What would have happened to the FTSE next Tuesday if the apparent Manchester terrorist attacks had succeeded this weekend Obama is riding a wave, he has invested a trillion and he has Hope... but by the Summer even he will lose some shine and the reporting season will report low profits I imagine. Could very well do.The markets are moving away from being news driven now.The fundamentals are still terrible but whats driving the markets is fear of inflation.Id like to see some big takeover activity soon to cement it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted April 9, 2009 Share Posted April 9, 2009 Could very well do.The markets are moving away from being news driven now.The fundamentals are still terrible but whats driving the markets is fear of inflation.Id like to see some big takeover activity soon to cement it. You won't see any take-overs because there is no money to borrow. OK, some cash rich companies might speculate but thse CEOs would be very brave. In the past 12 months loads of 'clever' people have lost billions investing well before they should. I have a a gut feeling that we will see a major terror outrage this Summer - I hope I am wrong. I just have a gut feeling about it. I think that the evil sods will feel a need to put 'their stamp' on Obama's Presidency. Even if that does not happen - let's hope I am wrong - we could easily have a week of sudden panic that drives the prices down considerably. Or the hedge fund boys could begin playing games again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the end is a bit nigher Posted April 9, 2009 Share Posted April 9, 2009 What would have happened to the FTSE next Tuesday if the apparent Manchester terrorist attacks had succeeded this weekend Well at the last attack the ftse fell 200 then recovered it again in the same day Could very well do.The markets are moving away from being news driven now.The fundamentals are still terrible but whats driving the markets is fear of inflation.Id like to see some big takeover activity soon to cement it. Some of the fundamentals arent that bad. There are some pretty low P/E ratios out there at the moment e.g. 7 / 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Errol Posted April 9, 2009 Share Posted April 9, 2009 It could go back above 10000 and it would still be a bear market rally. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted April 9, 2009 Share Posted April 9, 2009 Some of the fundamentals arent that bad. There are some pretty low P/E ratios out there at the moment e.g. 7 / 8 There was an article in Moneyweek last week and I think they said that the average P/E was still above average and that it was not a good indicator - they suggested something else to monitor. http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/stock...aper-42905.aspx Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yoss Posted April 9, 2009 Share Posted April 9, 2009 drop a line to fp. He knows what to do. I always love FP's responses, but he is habitual at calling it early (PURELY by applying too much common sense!). I think all of FP's predictions will come true! He's right on the money with is DOW/FTSE/Gold/Oil/House Price etc etc,... but fails to acknowledge, the market it full of hedge funds and pension funds... And now Totally overwhelmed governments. That really don't have a clue what is going on. No human can not compute figures like 100,000,000,000,000,000.00 * 3.1489..... Resources!!!! are finite, Without a major break though on physics or a flu pandemic...we can not keep expanding and buying fridges/cars etc. The physics has been stuck in a rut, the chemical warfare (sadly)... has not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted April 9, 2009 Share Posted April 9, 2009 George Soros, the billionaire financier, helped unsettle markets by voicing fears that share prices had further to fall. In an interview, he said: "It's a bear-market rally because we have not yet turned the economy around. This is not a financial crisis like all the other financial crises that we have experienced in our lifetime." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/finance...ll-further.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rover Posted April 9, 2009 Share Posted April 9, 2009 I always love FP's responses, but he is habitual at calling it early (PURELY by applying too much common sense!).I think all of FP's predictions will come true! He's right on the money with is DOW/FTSE/Gold/Oil/House Price etc etc,... but fails to acknowledge, the market it full of hedge funds and pension funds... And now Totally overwhelmed governments. That really don't have a clue what is going on. No human can not compute figures like 100,000,000,000,000,000.00 * 3.1489..... Resources!!!! are finite, Without a major break though on physics or a flu pandemic...we can not keep expanding and buying fridges/cars etc. The physics has been stuck in a rut, the chemical warfare (sadly)... has not. I concur, FP is consistently ahead of the curve. Agree with his fundamentals, but he acts/calls too early IMHO Sir. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rover Posted April 9, 2009 Share Posted April 9, 2009 I'm in it for the long run on Barclays, what's everyone's thoughts on the builders? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rover Posted April 9, 2009 Share Posted April 9, 2009 (edited) Repeat post, sorry. Edited April 9, 2009 by Rover Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rover Posted April 9, 2009 Share Posted April 9, 2009 (edited) Repeat post, sorry. Edited April 9, 2009 by Rover Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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