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Nationwide March House Prices 2nd April 2009


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Personaly I'm delighted.

I have the lifecycle of a bubble graph http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/graphs-bubble-lifecycle.php

on my wall and I'm charting the phases, I have been waiting for this.

I think I can safely say we have passed the bull trap and are almost at the 'return to normal' phase.

Just need to look forward to the big drops now.

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Housebuilders have strengthened this past few months.

Today many are up a further 10%.

Confirmation everywhere you look.

The two weeks at the end of the financial year and the two weeks at the beginning are always good for the markets. New cash from ISAs is being ploughed in by fund managers. They will buy any crap. They never care because its not their money and they get the commision.. The best fund manager lost only 28% last year and the industry thinks he is mr. wonderful. Its the same every year. The markets always take a drop in May. This year it will take a dive.

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Not at all, I've seen it time and time again.

I've no doubt you have and I've no doubt it happens and is probably one of the top reasons for divorce, but I cant believe every couple who go thorough financial difficulty end in divorce??

I hope I'm right :unsure:

Sorry veering off topic

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It's depressing isn't it

It's almost as though, you're only ever released from the mental torture of family and partners when you buy, so ingrained into the national psyche is home ownership

Of course, then you're shackled into a 25 year debt and the real torture just begins, but you're where everyone wants you

Mum and dad can say their boy is a homeowner, your partner has some reassurance your partying days and most of your freedom is over, your boss knows you'll be more reliable, the state have you in so many ways it's hard to know where to start

How did things get so backward that we ended up with this system; unaffordable housing and appalling rental contracts

Stuck between a rock and a hard place

Greedy housing market speculators, governments, boomers and their housing obsessions passed on to their kids; we really do have a lot to answer for

:(

But luckily there are people like you (a substantial minority) who see through it all. So things aren't so bad.

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Oh dear, you really are deep in a bull trap aren't you. Enjoy it while you can. I believe it will rise for 3-4 months and then fall even faster. It happend during the 90's.....
  • The market is crashing

  • The market is still crashing and any signs of interest is just spin from EA's

  • The signs of interest are just that. No one's actually buying.

  • There may be some cash buyers. But they only have limited funds.

  • BBA approvals are up, but only because the banks are doing all the lending.

  • OK BoE approvals are up too. But it's just a blip.

  • Higher approvals means lower prices on volume. Prices will continue to fall.

  • OK so prices have risen. But it's a bull trap.

:)

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The BBC ramping away has started again in earnest.

The lead story on BBC2 Working lunch right now, is house prices have gone up!

They have interviewed a couple of happy estate agents and a new buyer buying a btl. All saying such things as....stock is low, demand is great, best time to buy, lot of bargains, better investment than money in bank...blah de, blah...

But one of the guest estate agents, does say they are only selling properties if sellers have lowered prices 15-20% from peak.

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  • The market is crashing

  • The market is still crashing and any signs of interest is just spin from EA's

  • The signs of interest are just that. No one's actually buying.

  • There may be some cash buyers. But they only have limited funds.

  • BBA approvals are up, but only because the banks are doing all the lending.

  • OK BoE approvals are up too. But it's just a blip.

  • Higher approvals means lower prices on volume. Prices will continue to fall.

  • OK so prices have risen. But it's a bull trap.

:)

Lol - you're constantly looking for anything, even the most tenuous detail, to back up your views. OK, prices have risen for one month. Big deal. Come back when there are sustained rises based on something tangible.

As others have said though, the next few mths shd be a great time to get out of your portfolio of crappy little boxes in Thamesmead....

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FOA4 - I'm starting to think that I've overestimated you.

I actually thought you were capable of independent thought and a bit of analysis.

The link you have posted - have you ever heard of the saying "Big headline - little story"?

Read the last line of that link.

(Vicky Redwood, UK economist at Capital Economics) .....added that lending increases could be "pretty marginal".

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What I cannot understand is, where is this money coming from?

I do not doubt the NW figures, massaged or not. However, every day we are hearing news of thousands losing jobs and banks tightening their lending. Mr Brown has not started printing the money until last month. So how did people get money to buy the houses at inflated prices so as to increase the HP inflation? So we have so much spare cash?

Lenders are lending, they just want a deposit. That deposit is coming from:

1. Savings. Some investors, some parents, but both fleeing low returns.

2. Your pocket. It's your future taxation that is funding much of this. The Govt "Homebuy" schemes will loan buyers up to 50% of the purchase price, which they are allowed to use as a deposit. The lender does not mind as the poor old taxpayer only gets a second charge on the property. This years tranch of funds came on line yesterday. Oh, and it's an utter scandle and people really should start screaming about it.

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  • The market is crashing

  • The market is still crashing and any signs of interest is just spin from EA's

  • The signs of interest are just that. No one's actually buying.

  • There may be some cash buyers. But they only have limited funds.

  • BBA approvals are up, but only because the banks are doing all the lending.

  • OK BoE approvals are up too. But it's just a blip.

  • Higher approvals means lower prices on volume. Prices will continue to fall.

  • OK so prices have risen. But it's a bull trap.

:)

BoE approvals are about half the level required for prices to stabilise - you do realise that don't you?

The whole point about a bulltrap is that it catches people like you. The thing is that there still aren't many people who have the actual ability to enter the market unless prices fall considerably. That's why all the media spin in the world cannot stop this market from continuing to crash.

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I kinda expect a bounce this time of year so I'm not worried about where we are heading generally fo rthe next year or so.

But I put this months figures in to my excell sheet and noticed how much the previous monthly figures change

The NSA figures are the same but the SA figures move up and down all the time

eg

Mar 09 report says Mar 08 -1.3

Feb 09 report says Mar 08 -0.9

Jan 09 report says Mar 08 -1.2

:blink:

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Ditto for Scotland, and Edinburgh. Oh and Aberdeen. :lol:

The consumer survey for Scotland is interesting though. According to this only 33% of Scots questioned thought prices would fall in Scotland in the next 6 months !!! :o

Honestly we must be a nation of Hamish's. Just going to drag it out longer. I can wait.

Makes you wonder what Scots were thinking 6 months ago. :lol:

Its just a delayed response.

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BoE approvals are about half the level required for prices to stabilise - you do realise that don't you?

The whole point about a bulltrap is that it catches people like you. The thing is that there still aren't many people who have the actual ability to enter the market unless prices fall considerably. That's why all the media spin in the world cannot stop this market from continuing to crash.

It's like the seventies. Gold and housing have moved up at the same time. The correction was like the correction in the mid seventies, at that point cash had lost around 2/3 of it's value. It's the same now. It's not housing that went up, it was that real wages, and the value of paper money that went down. It's clearest in the US, where the dollar went down as much against gold, as emerging market's went up relative to the dow, or even less than house prices rose. The house price bubble was just a symptom of high inflation. It had to correct, but not down to where it came from, as the money is out there in circulation.

Edited by carseller
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Here are my thoughts for what they're worth.

1) We knew this was coming.

2) HonestEA commented on how their business had unexpectedly picked up in the anecdotal forum several weeks ago

3) The number of SSTC properties on rightmove shot up in Feb/March

4) The government is pritning money and has control over the banking system

5) The amount of spin from the media/VIs is ridiculous

6) Interest rates are at an all time low

7) There is historically always a spring bounce, this is.

8) There's not much available to buy at the moment so sellers are in a relatively strong position

9) The government has delayed the number of houses actually being repossesed.

10) People are greedy and stupid

So, it's no shock that prices have gone up, the only shock from my point of view is that it was only 0.9%

Regarding my points above...

1 - This was totally predictable, look at the "bubble graph" and it predicts a dead cat bounce, this is it !!! I am a STR'er and I've been tempted to buy, but havent found the right place and I still think prices have a long way to go.

2 - Maybe HonestEA can comment on how things are looking now ????

3 - the number of places going SSTC to have dried up. The fools and their money have been parted.

4 - The Queen has told them to stop...and stop they shall.

5 - Not much we can do about this, it should be banned but it wont.

6 - Rates are low, but for how long, anyone buying now because of the low rates and affordability are in for a shock. One girl at work is buying and said they are looking forward to getting onto the SVR in 2

years time as they will save a fortune !!!

7 - Spring has come and gone.

8 - Maybe is all the idiots trying to rent their houses out see the "bounce" and try and jump back in will help the drops. Also, all the people that have rented and decided they dont want to be "unplanned" lords must come back on the market soon.

9 - This will eventually go pop !!!

10 - Let the greedy and stupid buy now, the clever ones will wait.

If anyone can give me 10 compelling arguments as to why this is the bottom of the market then I'll buy next week.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere
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Lenders are lending, they just want a deposit. That deposit is coming from:

1. Savings. Some investors, some parents, but both fleeing low returns.

2. Your pocket. It's your future taxation that is funding much of this. The Govt "Homebuy" schemes will loan buyers up to 50% of the purchase price, which they are allowed to use as a deposit. The lender does not mind as the poor old taxpayer only gets a second charge on the property. This years tranch of funds came on line yesterday. Oh, and it's an utter scandle and people really should start screaming about it.

Yes this disgust me:

Key features of Open Market HomeBuy

You can choose between two distinct products, MyChoiceHomeBuy and Ownhome;

You can borrow between 15% and 50% of the value of the property at a low, or no, interest rate;

If you qualify for a mortgage of £110,000, for example, you could potentially purchase a property worth up to the current national house price average of £220,000;

If you took up MyChoiceHomeBuy, you could get your conventional mortgage from a range of lenders; and

If you opted for the Ownhome product, you would have a five-year interest-free period on your equity loan.

can only get 3x joint with Homebuy its 6x joint its win win for everyone bar the taxpayer.

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Doesn't mean a damn thing one way or the other - small increase,low volumes, one of the strongest times of the year normally for house sales, pent-up demand by people who HAVE to move for jobs, schools etc - just a blip. No consiracy theories needed. Another rise next month WOULD be surprising.

so you don't think they fudged the figures then but remember they justgot 1.6 billion from the govt was this an incentive to play down what is really going on you can't trust any of them the govt , banks, building societies none of them can be TRUSTED

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Like I said a couple of days ago here, I expect a couple of months of rises and then some stable +/- prices before continuing the decline. You've only got to look here to see that house prices always jump during the Spring. Prices went up in Spring even during the '90s crash with the high interest rates, and prices jumped by their largest amount during Spring in boom years.

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Like I said a couple of days ago here, I expect a couple of months of rises and then some stable +/- prices before continuing the decline. You've only got to look here to see that house prices always jump during the Spring. Prices went up in Spring even during the '90s crash with the high interest rates, and prices jumped by their largest amount during Spring in boom years.

Thats just what I said, two posts up. :)

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This happened for years during the early 90's. The odd month of rises here and there, but looking at the bigger picture, year after year prices continued to fall.

Nothing to see here, move along. ;)

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/wiki/1991...paper_Headlines

thanks for this.

two further points, really:

(i) many people, myself included, had hoped that it would be 'different this time', given the unprecedented size of the bubble, that, for the first time, we'd see prices plummet vertically rather than gently bump their way down. i never really believed it, but still...

(ii) it's beyond obvious that the VIs who'll ignore a 20% fall sustained over a year and a bit as a blip/small sample error/whatever but seize on a single 0.9% increase as Good Evidence are behaving idiotically. but still useful to know.

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All i need to see is how we've had 2 little surprise bounces on that blue line, before being wiped out the following month. _45625779_house_prices_apr09_226.gif

All this will do is make the very stupidest of mums and dads feel that now's the time to MEW up a deposit for little Johnny's newbuild starter home. Meaning two repos further down the line, where before there would be none, ultimately meaning a bigger HPC.

Is there something wierd / unusual about the Nationwide's methods and stats as they have had three little upward blips where the annual rate has risen in the last 18 months. Halifax seems to have a smoother curve.

Edited to say...not much of a curve: more of a plummet! :lol:

Edited by Hip to be bear
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