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Nationwide March House Prices 2nd April 2009


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"The moderation inthe annual rate of fall is somewhat distorted by conditions last year and so it would be unwise to draw

strong conclusions from the significant slowdown in the annual rate of fall. Equally, while the rise in

prices in March is welcome, it is far too soon to see this as evidence that the trough of the market has

been reached."

Fionnuala Early.

these figues ARE seasonally adjusted.

cant see volumes in the chart though

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Mar_2009.pdf

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Doesn't mean a damn thing one way or the other - small increase,low volumes, one of the strongest times of the year normally for house sales, pent-up demand by people who HAVE to move for jobs, schools etc - just a blip. No consiracy theories needed. Another rise next month WOULD be surprising.

Edited by cartimandua51
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BBC very quick off the mark! - do you smell something?

The BBC will have had the story for a couple of hours but embargoed until 7am. Its the usual approach with any press release to allow journos to actually have time to digest the press release and write their stories. Sometimes you'll even see the embargo time printed on the pdf press release.

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That line showing the LongTerm House Price Trend on the Chart within Nationwides PDF Release does not seem to be showing the real trend.

Draw a line along the troughs in the chart and it shows long term prices trending further down towards £100,000 (but that was only using my TV remote Control so may be a few Grand out on that figure!!) :blink:

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Here's one for Jock McTavish

Scotland: Area with largest annual price fall: Aberdeen City

I have already started a thread in the Scottish section, couldnt help myself. :lol:

BTW you want to be looking at this report below. Q1 2009 rather than just March. Far more detail.

Nationwide Q1 2009

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I expect to see a lot of posters saying that this rise doesn't matter, etc..... Well, it does matter a little, and until next month it probably matters a lot in terms of sentiment. The numbers aren't controlled by some great conspiracy of shadow forces. A rise is a rise, so take it for what it is and lets not spend a lot of wasted intellectual energy trying to find reasons why it doesn't matter. If you accept that the numbers matter on the way down, then you have to accept that a rise also matters.

Of course, it is not a trend, just like a single day rise or fall in the FTSE does not establish a trend.

It will be interesting to see the Halifax numbers, though. Does this correspond with the small bounce they saw 2 months ago, or is it the start of a new spring bounce?

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I have already started a thread in the Scottish section, couldnt help myself. :lol:

BTW you want to be looking at this report below. Q1 2009 rather than just March. Far more detail.

Nationwide Q1 2009

so many words, so many possible conclusions.

All I know is that the builders are pushing the homebuy scheme for all its worth, lenders still have tight criteria and the Nationwide has no info on volumes....least of all...COMPLETIONS.

My own area is falling fast...east Anglia...we had apparently done well earlier, but its catching up now.

still over a million properties on rightmove.

and the trand graph shows we have reached normality.....course the trend reflects serious HPI and lending boom.

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I expect to see a lot of posters saying that this rise doesn't matter, etc..... Well, it does matter a little, and until next month it probably matters a lot in terms of sentiment.

Yes, maybe, except that you're ignoring the sentiment caused by widespread job losses and loss of easy credit.

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