Times Article

[BTLlondon]

Slegde I have answered your question twice now. I can only assume you homing in a pedantic matter of syntax means you don’t to debate wider issues or you hope this deflects from the frailty of your general housing market argument.

P.S. Verdict 2 min, go to radio 5 live..........

[Guest Time 2 raise Interest Rates]

BTLlondon    What part of today's figures from the ODPM didn't you understand?  The average property in the UK now costs £181,832, down from £183,346 in March.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

BTLlondon I wouldn't mind an answer sometime tonight, please.

[BTLlondon]

Jacko NOT guilty on any offences. Hmm........

[Sledgehead]

Slegde I have answered your question twice now. I can only assume you homing in a pedantic matter of syntax means you don’t to debate wider issues or you hope this deflects from the frailty of your general housing market argument.

P.S. Verdict 2 min, go to radio 5 live..........

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Rubbish: we need to know what you believe. You made an assertion that we missed the good time to buy. Now you say we have missed only "an especially good" time to buy and that now is still a good time to buy. What sort of a limp wristed taunt is that?

Let me tell you how this sounds: it sounds like you are trying to prey on people's weaknesses by making them believe it isn't too late to profit from a "boat" you maintain has already left. You are preying on natural emotions of envy to try and pull people into the market at a point which you believe represents a bad time to buy, although you claim, counter to previous assertions that now is a good time to buy. I've met your sort before. You clearly have property to shift and you hope your confused rabblings, even with freudian slips, will help you offload the stuff.

This is as much about wordplay as this:

"Saddam has WMD"

"Saddam will use WMD at the first opportunity"

Q: why hasn't he then? That was how people knew Bush/Blair were lying and this is how we know you have a hidden agenda:

Now is a good time to buy

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You have missed the HMS "good time to buy boat."

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You have a conflicting logic problem matey. Best just drop the "boat missed" stuff in future, yeah?

Edited June 13, 2005 by Sledgehead

[ʎqɐqɹǝʞɐɥs]

Jacko NOT guilty on any offences. Hmm........

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Whats the wacko trial got to do with this thread? Stop changing the subject and have the decency to answer the questions you are being asked about a thread YOU started.

Edited June 13, 2005 by shakerbaby

[A Fool & His Borrowed Money]

Its like trying to get a straight answer out of a politician

Were's Jonathan Dimbleby when you need him?

[BTLlondon]

Sledge: hidden agenda? Is this a government cover up now? Am I from MI5? You really are up the wrong tree.

And if you think by posting on this forum will stop people doing as they wish you give your arguments far too much gravity. You bring up the point of envy which leads me to believe you are envious of people who own a property because you are unable to do so, however I respect that it may simply be that you have decided not to for ill-informed economic theory.

And if you think I am trying to shift a property via this forum then again you are seriously deranged. Or am I trying to shift the market via the forum? Shift the property market via a little forum like this you really are way off the mark.

I have told you what I believe and I admit I was irritated at my syntax error and was amused how you pounced upon it. However your outburst about shifting property via this forum, and envy renders any sort of logic or reason to your argument utterly void.

And I have no idea whay "conlicting" is?

[Guest Time 2 raise Interest Rates]

BTLlondon    What part of today's figures from the ODPM didn't you understand?  The average property in the UK now costs £181,832, down from £183,346 in March.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Apologies to everyone else out there, by keep posting this article but I thought I'd try one more time, for a reply from BTLlondon.

[ʎqɐqɹǝʞɐɥs]

Apologies to everyone else out there, by keep posting this article but I thought I'd try one more time, for a reply from BTLlondon.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Can you also ask him whether or not he will now stop using the phrase 'missed the boater'. Afterall we now hear that there is a boat each month and they are apparantly relatively easy to board.

[Red Baron]

Because prices are only going to keep rising and become ever more unobtainable for potential FTB’s who take your advice and sit on the fence.

Prices are not rising they are FALLING.

How do I know? First hand experience; I have been trying to sell my elderly parents house for four months. This is a desirable detached house in one of the best locations in Cambridgeshire. Placed on the market at EAs valuation (based on what similar houses were selling for in 2004) I have dropped the price 18% and there are still no takers.

You are deluding yourself.

[jpjh]

I suspect the reason most of them do not buy is because they can not buy, too busy buying beer, TT’s and plasma screens whilst bemoaning the fact they can’t buy a three bed house for their first time buy.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You couldn't be further from the truth. In general whilst a lot of the HPC'ers may be unable to afford there are quiet a few who could easily afford but have taken the view that housing is not good value for money and is due a correction.

I can quiet justifiable say the majority on this board are saving like mad to ensure a good deposit when the market has corrected enough.

As much as you may wish for a cut in rates and the aforementioned writer is predicting one, it's not going to make any difference. If the economy cannot stomach a measly 4.75% then we are in an awful mess.

What happens as the US continue to raise the rates...whoops there goes the sterling versus the dollar and oh dear there goes all our dollar denominated goods we need to buy. Up goes inflation and now we face another awkward situation.

I think rates are hold for a very long time...I also think the MPC have the brains to see through the screaming retailers and can quiet happily see that they are still making outrageous sums of money...just not as much as they used to.

[A Fool & His Borrowed Money]

Every month that idles past whilst you “wait to buy after a crash” is a boat missed.

Why? Because prices are [/b]only going to keep rising and become ever more unobtainable for potential FTB’s who take your advice and sit on the fence.

Every month there is a boat saying, “Please get on me you monkey or you’ll never buy a property and miss out on capital gains and security.”

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Of course dear,

I see it all now

Im going to buy a property as you have now convinced me prices rise indefinately;

Furthermore, to coign a new catchphrase) im going to become a buy-to-speculate (BTS) buyer as my 2 bed terrace can only go up! Its a get-rich-quick scheme that actually works!

No shit sherlock!!

(actualy sherlock, its ******** !)

Rule No1 when everyman & his dog jumps on the bandwagon, its time to get off

Swings & roundabouts as the saying goes..........

Hope this helps!

[BTLlondon]

Apologies to everyone else out there, by keep posting this article but I thought I'd try one more time, for a reply from BTLlondon.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

ODPM figures, whay are these important to you?

[A Fool & His Borrowed Money]

I like this thread, its becoming a good 'ol...........

Bullfight!!

[Guest Time 2 raise Interest Rates]

ODPM figures, whay are these important to you?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Well, no sh**. You mean I've waited nearly an hour and that's the best you can come up with?

[BTLlondon]

Why are they important to you?

[Sledgehead]

Sledge: hidden agenda? Is this a government cover up now? Am I from MI5? You really are up the wrong tree.

You bring up the point of envy which leads me to believe you are envious of people who own a property because you are unable to do so, however I respect that it may simply be that you have decided not to for ill-informed economic theory.

er, what gives you that idea? You clearly haven't been here very long. Which definition of "afford to buy" would you prefer: sell what I'm living in or cash buy. Tick whichever. I bring up envy because I know it is a powerful tool used by people trying to offload risk or sell a product.

And if you think by posting on this forum will stop people doing as they wish you give your arguments far too much gravity. ..

And if you think I am ....trying to shift the market via the forum? Shift the property market via a little forum like this you really are way off the mark.

I don't think it: I believe you do tho. Why else use such emotive clap trap as "missed the boat"? What do I think : I think this forum is a great place to thrash out opinions, get information and bait bulls who say stupid things they don't believe.

I have told you what I believe and I admit I was irritated at my syntax error and was amused how you pounced upon it. However your outburst about shifting property via this forum, and envy renders any sort of logic or reason to your argument utterly void. 

And I have no idea whay "conlicting" is?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I didn't pounce on anything. I gave you a chance to tell us exactly what it was you thought we had missed out on. You still have not been able to convincingly define what that is.

The only thing you say is that we have missed "an especially" good time to buy, yet also say now is still a good time to buy. All after saying people have missed the good time to buy. Do you really expect to be taken seriously?

Edited June 13, 2005 by Sledgehead

[Guest Time 2 raise Interest Rates]

Why are they important to you?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

What are you talking about? You don't answer a question with a question. I take it if the figures were in reverse you might find them a bit more relevant to your cause. Time for bed for me, I'll check for your reply in the morning. Thanks.

[A Fool & His Borrowed Money]

Its because of.....,

denial

• noun 1 the action of denying. 2 Psychology refusal to acknowledge an unacceptable truth or emotion.

[BTLlondon]

What are you talking about?  You don't answer a question with a question.  I take it if the figures were in reverse you might find them a bit more relevant to your cause.  Time for bed for me, I'll check for your reply in the morning.  Thanks.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You seem to have no explanation...........

The ODPM figures are based on property sales at the point of completion, so tend to show a picture of the housing market up to two or three months behind figures from mortgage lenders like Nationwide and Halifax. Nopr is it seasonally adjusted.

Therefore if I say a good window to buy was from Nov 04 until May 05 (less than 2 months ago) I am proved right. Discounts were achieveable. I suspect the ODPM will show a slight rise in July Aug Oct etc, especially if rates drop.

Indeed the Halifax and Nationwide have recently suggested prices are rising slightly, and both are more up to date taking note of mortgage offers not completions.

[gone west]

You seem to have no explanation...........

The ODPM figures are based on property sales at the point of completion, so tend to show a picture of the housing market up to two or three months behind figures from mortgage lenders like Nationwide and Halifax. Nopr is it seasonally adjusted.

Therefore if I say a good window to buy was from Nov 04 until May 05 (less than 2 months ago) I am proved right. Discounts were achieveable. I suspect the ODPM will show a slight rise in July Aug Oct etc, especially if rates drop.

Indeed the Halifax and Nationwide have recently suggested prices are rising slightly, and both are more up to date taking note of mortgage offers not completions.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

And they have nothing but a purely academic interest in the housing market.....

[Sledgehead]

You seem to have no explanation...........

The ODPM figures are based on property sales at the point of completion, so tend to show a picture of the housing market up to two or three months behind figures from mortgage lenders like Nationwide and Halifax. Nopr is it seasonally adjusted.

Therefore if I say a good window to buy was from Nov 04 until May 05 (less than 2 months ago) I am proved right. Discounts were achieveable. I suspect the ODPM will show a slight rise in July Aug Oct etc, especially if rates drop.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I refer to the data in the latest ODPM April 05 Survey, which I include as a thumbnail attachment below. You say (see red above) that this data proves you right. Right in what respect? The data shows a maximum variation in prices from Nov 2004 to April 2005 of some 2%. Furthermore (from blue) you only "suspect" slight rises ahead, which, let's face it, are not yet "missed".

Given the margin of error in such figures and the extreme skill needed to pick th exact nadir within this 2% range, I should like to know how you can possibly describe this scenario as "an especially good" buying opportunity, the like of which classes us all as "boat missers"?

Edited June 13, 2005 by Sledgehead

[Rapid Descent]

The ODPM figures are based on property sales at the point of completion, so tend to show a picture of the housing market up to two or three months behind figures from mortgage lenders like Nationwide and Halifax. Nopr is it seasonally adjusted.

It is a shame the ODPM figures aren't seasonally adjusted. April 03 and April 04 both showed jumps, so it is fair to assume that the seasonal adjustment of April figures would be downward. So if there was a seasonal adjustment, the reported drop in April 05 would be even bigger.

[BTLlondon]

Oh sledge how desperate you are!

1. TTRIR says the figures overall show a downward trend and that he believes in them totally. I am blowing that argument out of the water.

2. The up down up down stats show a period of market instability or flux hence uncertainty. Therefore July Aug Sept Oct should all be up showing a more confident market, especially if rates are cut.

Is this so hard to understand? I feel your enjoyment of making weak points by twisting proves you have nothing of substance to add. Try BTL investing you can argue with yourself all day and maybe make some money.

Dare I say missing cautious markets is especially stupid, missing the whole upward trend of the property market will prove to be even more especially stupid in the long run.

Try adding something of value rather than quoting me in bold. Something original.

[Smurf1976]

Assuming the next move is down, this will continue a sequence in which each successive interest-rate peak is lower than the one before. The Bank’s first post-independence rate peak in 1998 was 7.5%, followed by 6%, and now 4.75%.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

In orther words, we are slowly heading towards a debt deflation.