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I'm Losing Faith In The Crash.


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Deano,

Soft landing does not exist....VI's made it up to explain why prices werent rising.

What you're talking about there my friend is the dead cat bounce.It will happen - then it will crash. The sooner we get the bounce out of the way and proceed to crash the better it will be for the economy and for us as a nation. We can then move forward in a real economic enviroment where we are not being lied to and encouraged to spend money we havent got to prop up a bubble which should never have been allowed to get this big or so out of control.

The only argument is over how bad the crash will be.

The little piggies seem to think 10%.  HPC average seems to be 30%......I'm going for 50%.

You'll be waiting a long time then...

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I have never considered the purchase of a car as an alternative investment, in fact I was under the impression it lots 5K the moment you drove it off the forecourt.

Is it a vintage vehicle as I understand there are some good tax breaks?.

Its the new model Mini. I had one 3 yrs ago, and its held value quite well over 3 years and 50,000 miles! I just enjoy driving, its not an alternative investment, but I know for a fact I won't be buying a house over the next 2 years. So its probably the last chance I get before I DO buy a house! And like I say I hae budgeted so I can still save.

Apart from that I know and agree with what you are saying!

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Unfortunately, i think prices will rise for the next two months. reason? I reckon a cut at the next BOE meeting. It will be short lived. The forsee trouble on the horiZon and want to give all a breathing space before it happens... oil prices christmas etc... iNFLATION up MASSIVELY.... then rates rice to catch up.

I reckon falls will follow then till next april (buyer season) , then up slightly, then continue to fall at the sub 0.5% threshold. EAs would prefer to sell their grandma than utter the word crash...

Think next month will be a real clue as to whether things will be looking up for sellers, if things pick up substantially with talk of rate cuts, bad for FTB, if they continue to slide in June or level, could be bad for us. Just my opinion of course...

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but I'm starting to lose faith in the crash. Should I be? Most news lately, even on HPC.co.uk seems to be pointing towards a soft landing.

Yeah im beggining to see wot u mean ;)

Here's Gordon Clown's latest predictions for the housing market in the graph below;

see the plateau?,

followed by that [basil brush voice] Boom-Boom!!?[b/basil brush voice]

youarehere.gif

post-13-1118613348_thumb.jpg

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From the London Stock Exchange Website, sorry its looking like a slowdown not meltdown.

7th June 2005 16:52

House prices in the UK fell by 0.6 per cent in the month of May according to statistics released by Halifax today.

Although this represents a gradual slowdown in the market UK, house prices are broadly unchanged so far this year with a decline of 0.1 per cent in the first five months.

House price inflation also fell, continuing the downward trend from the peak of 22.1 per cent in July 2004 to the current 5.7 per cent, the lowest pace of growth in four years.

Halifax said the market is operating within a narrow band of price volatility and is flat overall.

Estate agents have reported broad stability in market activity, although sales remain around 30 per cent lower than last year.

Halifax group economist Tim Crawford said: "We continue to forecast a modest decline of two per cent in house prices this year across the UK.

"The market is underpinned by sound fundamentals including record employment levels, good affordability and rising real earnings," he said.

© DeHavilland Information Services plc...

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S-L-O-W-L-Y but surely!

Its like watching the Hour hand on a clock moving; you'll swear it isn't moving & give up watching, but come back later & its moved a long way

Such is the hindsight we have now with 1989-1995

Same can be said of now as were in 1989 stages.........

e.g., does the below sound familiar, eh???

The Times

TUE 03 JAN 1989

Agents optimistic about house prices

A leading national firm of estate agents believes a collapse in the property market in 1989 is highly unlikely. Strutt and Parker has completed a review of 1988 trends, dominated by panic buying in the summer, then a London-led slowdown in the last q...

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From the London Stock Exchange Website, sorry its looking like a slowdown not meltdown.

7th June 2005 16:52

House prices in the UK fell by 0.6 per cent in the month of May according to statistics released by Halifax today.

Although this represents a gradual slowdown in the market UK, house prices are broadly unchanged so far this year with a decline of 0.1 per cent in the first five months.

House price inflation also fell, continuing the downward trend from the peak of 22.1 per cent in July 2004 to the current 5.7 per cent, the lowest pace of growth in four years.

Halifax said the market is operating within a narrow band of price volatility and is flat overall.

Estate agents have reported broad stability in market activity, although sales remain around 30 per cent lower than last year.

Halifax group economist Tim Crawford said: "We continue to forecast a modest decline of two per cent in house prices this year across the UK.

"The market is underpinned by sound fundamentals including record employment levels, good affordability and rising real earnings," he said.

© DeHavilland Information Services plc...

why is it that despite numerous suggestions, you fail to refer to the only source that really records the actual price of all transactions, namely the Land registry, yet you keep referring to a VI that creates its own figures based upon people it will lend money too?

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Yeah im beggining to see wot u mean ;)

Here's Gordon Clown's latest predictions for the housing market in the graph below;

see the plateau?,

followed by that [basil brush voice] Boom-Boom!!?[b/basil brush voice]

Dear A fool & His Borrowed Money,

Please DO NOT POST anything like that in the future.

I was casually drinking a cup of coffee and clicked the picture to enlarge....I now have a nasty burn to my left thigh and coffee all over my keyboard.

If you intend to post anything that funny, may I humbly suggest you attach a Warning Label to inform readers that serious bouts of laughter may ensue..

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:(

Hi Folks,

I have been coming on this site for a few months now, and I am starting to lose faith in the possibility of a crash. I have personally lost all hope of getting onto the ladder - even though I earn slightly over the average wage. Yes, I could probably buy a 2 bed, mid terraced house in the middle of a S***hole, but why should I?

I am 26, and living with my parents, so why should I put all of my money into property and struggle month on month?

I have just bought a new car, as there is no way I'm going to "invest" in a house for the next 2 years. I have budgeted so I can still save a good amount over the 2 years, but I'm starting to lose faith in the crash. Should I be? Most news lately, even on HPC.co.uk seems to be pointing towards a soft landing.

Oz seems to be a bit ahead of the UK in this crash, here's what we're seeing in Oz now (you should see something similar soon). In short, the crash is on track to happen but has not actually happened yet. Nothing to worry about so far.

In sydney:

1. Prices and activity peaked late 2003

2. Prices declined slowly until a few months ago. At the bottom, prices were down in the order of 10%.

3. Transaction volume seems to have picked up lately, so has the price.

Now, someone on another thread posted a chart showing transaction volume and average price during the early 90's crash in the UK. If you compare Sydney now with the UK then you find that it's following almost exactly the same path. Once this "bounce" is completed, which should be sometime later this year (best guess is around October but any time from August until the end of the year) the declines should resume. Slowly at first but then picking up speed. The bulk of the falls ought to be over after about two years (so, late 2007) with modest falls over the next 3 or so years to the bottom.

Everything is on track for a crash in Sydney according to charts of previous crashes. London also is following the same course as previous crashes but so far is a little behind Sydney, hence my focus on Oz.

Nothing to worry about so far. :)

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This is a really interesting point, perhaps worthy of a new thread:

"Estate agents -- our new allies"?

On the way up property shifts quickly so it is in the EA's interests for prices and therefore comissions to go up.

At the current stage of the cycle. the longer sentiment remains at summer 2004 levels, the longer properties will be on the market. This means EAs must conduct many many viewings to get a sale and they make less money.

At some point it must become in their interests to convince sellers to slash prices. Unfortunately they don't want to look more downbeat than their competitors, a bit like penguins on the edge of an iceberg, in a game theoretic "Nash equilibrium".

But perhaps those small time EAs who don't read the market properly will be forced out, allowing the bigger players to talk things down. Will we then have Foxtons etc. putting out panicking crash headline PR?

La frugalista

The enemy of my enemy is my friend - and all that? Or as the Japanese called the Germans "friendly enemies" :P

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I was gaining confidence in steady declines in prices in my area (N16 Norf Landon) until 4 houses near me which have for sale boards up for before 2 days and 1 month all sold (STC) last week. I went into one EA and asked about them and 1 which had sold before but the buyers buyer had fallen through was the 2 dayer. I asked about the current state and he said ' even though everywhere around here is steadying(!), around here prices are even rising'.

But then these places are in prime location and I swear they put something in the water round here as people are bonkers and don't look beyond having a trendy house. They are buying a pokey 2 bed terraced for 310k and I don't think they are regotiating. It amazes me how much status and material possessions can affect someones rational thinking.

Is this the dead cat bounce?

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Everything is on track for a crash in Sydney according to charts of previous crashes. London also is following the same course as previous crashes but so far is a little behind Sydney, hence my focus on Oz.

Nothing to worry about so far.  :)

I dunno Smurf, a lot of people (even bears) are talking long-term stagnation in Australia now...

House prices: overvalued, over-owned & set for stagnation

http://www.propertyreview.com.au/archives/...9062005010.html

Historically we haven't experienced the big 30-40% crashes like the Poms have, just 10-15% falls followed by a long period of stagnation.

Short of some major shock to the economy I can't see a crash happening in Oz ... and I remember what happened after 9/11, the property market didn't even pause for breath.

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and I am starting to lose faith in the possibility of a crash. I have personally lost all hope of getting onto the ladder - even though I earn slightly over the average wage

Thats what we like to hear - the ones that have given up on a crash can't afford to buy anyway. All these people that can't afford to buy are surely going to push the market back up :) . Look why worry you can't afford to buy presently!

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Assuming you're single and childfree, 26 is pretty young to be getting upset house prices. If life with your parents is getting you down, rent. Or travel or something. Enjoy your car.

House prices *will* fall, but where's the rush for you? You can afford to wait.

Edited by vicster
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I was gaining confidence in steady declines in prices in my area (N16 Norf Landon) until 4 houses near me which have for sale boards up for before 2 days and 1 month all sold (STC) last week. I went into one EA and asked about them and 1 which had sold before but the buyers buyer had fallen through was the 2 dayer. I asked about the current state and he said ' even though everywhere around here is steadying(!), around here prices are even rising'.

Well located property will always shift. But these are houses you are talking about and therefore will involve people someway up the property ladder.

Remember there are a lot of people who have made a lot of money through the inflation of their own houses' prices. These are the people who can afford to buy, although if they are really interested in making money they'd be better advised to sell up and rent for 2 years.1

The people who can't afford to buy or where it makes no economic sense whatsoever are FTBs. And in places like North London (where houses are dwarfed by the number of flats) FTBS make up a sizeable chunk of the local market.

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I think it's likely that desirable London property had it's "crash" last year. Very few, if any, of the houses we looked at sold. Completely different this year.

High employment, low interest rates (and little likiehood of rises) - why should prices fall?

Note that I'm only saying this for desirable property in London NOT for all London property.

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  • 440 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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