Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

I'm Losing Faith In The Crash.


Recommended Posts

:(

Hi Folks,

I have been coming on this site for a few months now, and I am starting to lose faith in the possibility of a crash. I have personally lost all hope of getting onto the ladder - even though I earn slightly over the average wage. Yes, I could probably buy a 2 bed, mid terraced house in the middle of a S***hole, but why should I?

I am 26, and living with my parents, so why should I put all of my money into property and struggle month on month?

I have just bought a new car, as there is no way I'm going to "invest" in a house for the next 2 years. I have budgeted so I can still save a good amount over the 2 years, but I'm starting to lose faith in the crash. Should I be? Most news lately, even on HPC.co.uk seems to be pointing towards a soft landing.

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 65
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Posted Images

Don't loose faith, it's happening now.

However prices will not go down overnight.

They took years to go up and will take years to go back down.

It's going to be a nasty and very painful ride for those who overstretched themselves recently or refinanced and spent the equity.

Be disciplined, keep saving and you'll be able to buy a nice house in a few years time.

Link to post
Share on other sites
:(

Hi Folks,

I have been coming on this site for a few months now, and I am starting to lose faith in the possibility of a crash. I have personally lost all hope of getting onto the ladder - even though I earn slightly over the average wage. Yes, I could probably buy a 2 bed, mid terraced house in the middle of a S***hole, but why should I?

I am 26, and living with my parents, so why should I put all of my money into property and struggle month on month?

I have just bought a new car, as there is no way I'm going to "invest" in a house for the next 2 years. I have budgeted so I can still save a good amount over the 2 years, but I'm starting to lose faith in the crash. Should I be? Most news lately, even on HPC.co.uk seems to be pointing towards a soft landing.

Could you tell us how,

Seriously low numbers of buyers but high numbers of properties.

Highest number of bankrucpy in 40 years.

Increase in reposession orders.

YOY HPI down to as low as 5% (and getting lower)

Evidence of no Sping bounce.

can be taked as pointing to a soft landing.

Link to post
Share on other sites

deano_54321 (what sort of name is that?)

I can’t accept a stagnant market scenario, imagine all those people waiting for

buyers to come to their senses, and buy their property at an artificially high price.

A lot of people stayed put in the last crash, (Negative Equity)

They couldn’t sell at a lose. So those that could, rented out their flats to pay

the mortgage on them while they moved to houses. It was risky

As Charlie the Tramp said in another post 250,000 had their homes reprocessed

Repossession during 1990-2001:

525,530 Properties in 11 years !!! (CML report)

(That’s nearly 1,000 per week, if you spread the amount)

I believe there won’t be stagnation for the following reasons :

1. People that can’t afford to sell (MEW’d too much) can’t also afford to stay. DEBTS

Even if the Government can keep IR low. Everything else is rising, cost of living etc..

There will be trouble ahead.

2. Our good friends the Estate Agents have a vested interest to shift property

when it comes down to it, they don’t give a shit how much you get, as long as they get something.

so in a short time they will talk the market down or go under.

3. Stagnation occurs with stability, Someone explain to me what’s stable in today’s market?

4. History repeats itself.

5. Analogy: This horse and cart has accelerated so fast now, out of control, crash inevitable.

6. If the Government says there won’t be a crash. (duck and cover)

7. I’m looking at 20% off on some properties in my area already

8. We’re getting price slides Land Registry each report.

9. Other things?

Don't lose faith you have to wait for the next set of reports to come out

that normally shuts the bulls up :D

Link to post
Share on other sites
:(

Hi Folks,

I have been coming on this site for a few months now, and I am starting to lose faith in the possibility of a crash. I have personally lost all hope of getting onto the ladder - even though I earn slightly over the average wage. Yes, I could probably buy a 2 bed, mid terraced house in the middle of a S***hole, but why should I?

I am 26, and living with my parents, so why should I put all of my money into property and struggle month on month?

I have just bought a new car, as there is no way I'm going to "invest" in a house for the next 2 years. I have budgeted so I can still save a good amount over the 2 years, but I'm starting to lose faith in the crash. Should I be? Most news lately, even on HPC.co.uk seems to be pointing towards a soft landing.

Deano,

My eldest son is 24 and living at home, so I can empathise with you a bit. I've advised him to hang on, even though he has enough to buy. The way I look at it is this: even if there's no crash, even the building societies are forecasting 2-5% annual falls. If they are right, and my son (and you) are getting 4% net on your savings, AND you're avoiding paying interest on a mortgage (or landlord's rent) you're still going to be quids in by waiting. And the bonus prize? There may well be a crash!

Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi All

Thanks for your comments - I'm obviously a newbie 4 a reason!

I have bought a car, so the chances of me buying a house in the next 2 years has gone. Like I say, i will still be saving. I would recommend anyone else do the same for the next couple of years and just abandon the market. We'll be the ones laughing in the end!

Link to post
Share on other sites

deano_54321,

I am also in my mid-twenties. I have been wanting to buy for a couple of years, but have simply not been able to afford anything. I was getting quite depressed about it (well, still am really).

But, the only reason I found this site is because I have been keeping my eye on the local papers and rightmove. I was definitely seeing prices come down (both buying and renting prices) so I thought 'is a crash coming?' - my google search revealed this site which has boosted my confidence a lot and made me definitely decide to keep waiting.

My point is that I was seeing prices drop for myself before I found this forum and despite friends buying flats in London and other friends thinking I'm being a pessimist when I tell them not to buy yet.

Just try to keep the faith and save a bomb whilst living at home. Unfortunately for me, paying rent means there is little left to save.

Link to post
Share on other sites

funny that.. ive just used faith and hope in a differnt post. If your supposition for a crash is built on faith and hope then its best to lose it and look at evidence objectivly while factoring in the unpredictability of human emotion.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Deano,

My eldest son is 24 and living at home, so I can empathise with you a bit. I've advised him to hang on, even though he has enough to buy. The way I look at it is this: even if there's no crash, even the building societies are forecasting 2-5% annual falls. If they are right, and my son (and you) are getting 4% net on your savings, AND you're avoiding paying interest on a mortgage (or landlord's rent) you're still going to be quids in by waiting. And the bonus prize? There may well be a crash!

Thanks, some nice points there from someone who sounds in a v similar position! I recommend he enjoy his well earned money on stuff he wants now (like a new car or nice holidays etc) as when he does buy a home these things will be much harder to come by. If he is in the same position as me, then he should be able to get some nice things out of life NOW and also budget to save for a couple of years too.

Even though my parents own their own home, they hope the prices will fall for my sake. It wont hurt them because they plan on staying in our house for years to come, and they haven't "spent" the equity they've gained over the past few years!

Good luck to him from a fellow FTB. And thanks for your advice and thoughts!

Dean

Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest belle
Don't loose faith, it's happening now. 

However prices will not go down overnight.

They took years to go up and will take years to go back down.

It's going to be a nasty and very painful ride for those who overstretched themselves recently or refinanced and spent the equity.

Be disciplined, keep saving and you'll be able to buy a nice house in a few years time.

Which planet are you on??? its happening now ??? - not where i live its on the up up up up up!

Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest prudence
:(

Hi Folks,

I have been coming on this site for a few months now, and I am starting to lose faith in the possibility of a crash. I have personally lost all hope of getting onto the ladder - even though I earn slightly over the average wage. Yes, I could probably buy a 2 bed, mid terraced house in the middle of a S***hole, but why should I?

I am 26, and living with my parents, so why should I put all of my money into property and struggle month on month?

I have just bought a new car, as there is no way I'm going to "invest" in a house for the next 2 years. I have budgeted so I can still save a good amount over the 2 years, but I'm starting to lose faith in the crash. Should I be? Most news lately, even on HPC.co.uk seems to be pointing towards a soft landing.

If you haven't got patience you're right to lose faith

Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm getting really sick of this "soft landing" phrase!!!!...it's driving me nuts!!!

LET'S DECYPHER THE WORD SOFT FROM CORPORATE SPEAK INTO PLAIN ENGLISH!!!

SOFT(corporate version of):undesireable or remarkably unsatisfactory level

of trading activity likely to unnerve investors or

employees and/or agents of the company.Executives

shall be advised to use this word rather than:

UNSATISFACTORY,WORRYING,DISAPPOINTING,BAD,POOR OR INADEQUATE.

other universally agreed "palletable" terms of reference may include:

CHALLENGING,LIGHT,QUIET(ER),

Executives should take care only to use approved terms and use a plausible(but untrue)excuse for the deficiency in the results reported.

Executives should also be aware that failure to maintain or improve profit margins is not taken kindly by the board or it's shareholders,and as such instructions to cut costs will be exercised as and when necessary.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Which planet are you on??? its happening now ??? - not where i live its on the up up up up up!

where DO you live? - everywhere else, from London to Birmingham to Edinburgh is falling according to the last LR stats - what isn't falling just isn't selling (that's why rightmove has 530,000 properties for sale)

either you are in a unique area or you are talking bo**ocks - which is it?

Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm in the same situation.

Think of these scenarios:

1. If house prices fall, you won't lose money on a house, and you are adding to your bank balance. House prices down & bank balance up = good.

2. If house prices stay the same, you be saving much more than the capital you will pay off through a mortgage. House prices same & bank balance up = good.

3. Even if house prices rose slightly, as a Homer, it's likely that your savings will be more than the capital appreciation of a house. Houses up a bit & bank balance up a lot = pretty good.

In all of the above you will also not have the liability of a house (i.e. bills, decorating, council tax etc etc.) A nice opportunity saving.

The only scenario where you will lose out is if house prices surge upwards, which isn't realistically going to happen. And if it does will almost certainly trigger a bigger crash.

Also bear in mind if you could save for example 20 grand over a few years and the type of house you're after fell by 20 grand you'd be 40 grand closer to owning your own house. You would save almost as much again, due to not paying interest on that £40k over 25 years. Saving over 25 years of more like 80 grand, in this case.

Keep the faith.

Link to post
Share on other sites
:(

Hi Folks,

I have been coming on this site for a few months now, and I am starting to lose faith in the possibility of a crash. I have personally lost all hope of getting onto the ladder - even though I earn slightly over the average wage. Yes, I could probably buy a 2 bed, mid terraced house in the middle of a S***hole, but why should I?

I am 26, and living with my parents, so why should I put all of my money into property and struggle month on month?

I have just bought a new car, as there is no way I'm going to "invest" in a house for the next 2 years. I have budgeted so I can still save a good amount over the 2 years, but I'm starting to lose faith in the crash. Should I be? Most news lately, even on HPC.co.uk seems to be pointing towards a soft landing.

If you can't comfortably afford the mortgage payments, todays market is NOT the one to buy in.

Link to post
Share on other sites
2. Our good friends the Estate Agents have a vested interest to shift property

when it comes down to it, they don’t give a shit how much you get, as long as they get something.

so in a short time they will talk the market down or go under.

This is a really interesting point, perhaps worthy of a new thread:

"Estate agents -- our new allies"?

On the way up property shifts quickly so it is in the EA's interests for prices and therefore comissions to go up.

At the current stage of the cycle. the longer sentiment remains at summer 2004 levels, the longer properties will be on the market. This means EAs must conduct many many viewings to get a sale and they make less money.

At some point it must become in their interests to convince sellers to slash prices. Unfortunately they don't want to look more downbeat than their competitors, a bit like penguins on the edge of an iceberg, in a game theoretic "Nash equilibrium".

But perhaps those small time EAs who don't read the market properly will be forced out, allowing the bigger players to talk things down. Will we then have Foxtons etc. putting out panicking crash headline PR?

La frugalista

Link to post
Share on other sites
where DO you live? - everywhere else, from London to Birmingham to Edinburgh is falling according to the last LR stats - what isn't falling just isn't selling (that's why rightmove has 530,000 properties for sale)

either you are in a unique area or you are talking bo**ocks - which is it?

hi mate, even though i'm a bear, i haven't seen huge falls around here, although a lot more properties are coming onto the market. I live in shipley, west yorkshire and prices here haven't gone down, but the opposite...look here and please state your opinion on these streets for example:

http://www.nethouseprices.com/index.php?op...rch_id=14412491

http://www.nethouseprices.com/index.php?op...rch_id=14412736

http://www.nethouseprices.com/index.php?op...rch_id=14412820 (this ones in bradford)

Please note that these are just examples, but the general trend here is still a rise, although i'd like to hear everyone's opinions on this.

Link to post
Share on other sites
:(

Hi Folks,

I have been coming on this site for a few months now, and I am starting to lose faith in the possibility of a crash. I have personally lost all hope of getting onto the ladder - even though I earn slightly over the average wage. Yes, I could probably buy a 2 bed, mid terraced house in the middle of a S***hole, but why should I?

I am 26, and living with my parents, so why should I put all of my money into property and struggle month on month?

I have just bought a new car, as there is no way I'm going to "invest" in a house for the next 2 years. I have budgeted so I can still save a good amount over the 2 years, but I'm starting to lose faith in the crash. Should I be? Most news lately, even on HPC.co.uk seems to be pointing towards a soft landing.

Deano,

Soft landing does not exist....VI's made it up to explain why prices werent rising.

What you're talking about there my friend is the dead cat bounce.It will happen - then it will crash. The sooner we get the bounce out of the way and proceed to crash the better it will be for the economy and for us as a nation. We can then move forward in a real economic enviroment where we are not being lied to and encouraged to spend money we havent got to prop up a bubble which should never have been allowed to get this big or so out of control.

The only argument is over how bad the crash will be.

The little piggies seem to think 10%. HPC average seems to be 30%......I'm going for 50%.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.