Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

Fsa Mortgage Cap


shergar75
 Share

Recommended Posts

Besides, I have no idea why any of you thought this would make a difference in Scotland anyway.....

From the CML's Scotland factsheet for 2007 (peak) mortgage lending in Scotland.

2007 housing and mortgage market facts for Scotland

Average age of a first-time buyer 28

Average first-time buyer income £28,611

Average first-time buyer income multiple 2.96

Average first-time buyer advance £83,240

Average age of a home mover 37

Average mover income £41,829

Average mover income multiple 2.81

Average mover advance £112,989

% of first-time buyers as a total of all house purchase loans 35

Average house price £159,157

Of course if the average is 2.96 then a cap at 3* income would prevent maybe 40% plus of those FTBs who borrowed over 3 times income so it would have had a significant impact.

That said, as I said earlier, there's no way any legal cap will come in. Any government that imposed it would be voted out and financial institutions would find ways around it anyway. Never overestimate how forgetful people are and never underestimate how strong a motivation greed is.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 63
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Not at all, I just know they vastly outnumber the people who will buy in the next few years.

Check out the transaction number differentials in the last crash, now check out the transaction number differentials today. :lol:

10-1 is probably a conservative estimate!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I suspect the FSA got an almighty kicking over the last few days from those that know the political and economic reality, NO GOVERNMENT will survive without HPI, which is why the abrupt U-Turn on mortgage limits. :lol::lol::lol::lol:

Hamish, we have not had HPI for quite some time, or had you forgotten :lol::lol: The Government is still here because they control the election date. I thought you said a cap would mean so many couldn`t buy that you would pick up four BTL? now you are saying WITHOUT a cap so many still won`t be able to buy that they will somehow be outnumbered by existing "homeowners". Surely a point is reached where the renters vote down the Government? So you are accepting that either way there is not enough credit? and that lack of credit is going to destroy the housing market?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Don`t you get it yet? The global collpse in credit markets means there is a cap? If there wasn`t we would have the same housing casino as 2007? They have done the right thing today, they have floated the idea of caps to be further discussed in six months time, leaving it open, it may be kicked into touch , it may be enforced. That is Government speak for "you have a window of opportunity, start cutting your selling prices, or we may have to take further action to " bring stability" (i,e get it moving) to the market. Simple brutal logic. Much as it would have been cheered on here, they can`t really just come out and say "as of today, mortgages are capped, if you have not sold yet, tough, your equity is gone" they can`t just do that, they have to be slippery. This summer is the summer when millions of sheeple wake up to the smell of strong coffee.

Oh My, the bleating of the bears has begun. Frantic, desperate, excuse laden bleating at that.

Did you miss the part of the FSA document where they discussed the possibility of regulating the global credit markets through a central clearing house in order to minimise future risk? Why would they do that if there are no more global markets?

Or perhaps you missed the statement from the head of Barlays bank this week, stating that securitised debt has to and will return if the economy is to recover?

Or perhaps the news article this week that showed the recession is now easing off in Scotland?

Or the one where detached houses have started to rise?

Or the one where instead of capping the housing market, the government are due to make announcements in the next few days offering further support to prices?

Your dreams of a 35% or 50% or 75% average crash in Scotland are over.

:lol::lol::lol::lol:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Oh My, the bleating of the bears has begun. Frantic, desperate, excuse laden bleating at that.

Did you miss the part of the FSA document where they discussed the possibility of regulating the global credit markets through a central clearing house in order to minimise future risk? Why would they do that if there are no more global markets?

Or perhaps you missed the statement from the head of Barlays bank this week, stating that securitised debt has to and will return if the economy is to recover?

Or perhaps the news article this week that showed the recession is now easing off in Scotland?

Or the one where detached houses have started to rise?

Or the one where instead of capping the housing market, the government are due to make announcements in the next few days offering further support to prices?

Your dreams of a 35% or 50% or 75% average crash in Scotland are over.

:lol::lol::lol::lol:

Tut tut, spelling mistakes Hamish, very unlike you. Nervous? Fearful maybe? Did the farmer go into detail about how he is going to re-ignite the securitised debt markets :lol::lol::lol:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Turner report is akin to thinking about ordering a door for the stable after the horse has bolted, let along shutting one that was already in place. This meltdown (the horse) is already 150Km away and his report is so much waste paper.

Whether he recommended a mortgage cap or not is irrelevant. The prudent don't want to borrow and the only people who want to borrow, no-one wants to lend to. Property has another 45-50% to fall from here.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Fear, palpable fear.

You can almost taste it in Hamish's posts these days. :lol:

Yesterday, 3 times cap possible = Yes !! I will make a fortune on BTL !! Brilliant.

Today, 3 times cap less likely = Yes !! Smiley faces. See told you all along !!

It must be amzing to be Hamish. Whatever happens you are a winner.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I suspect the FSA got an almighty kicking over the last few days from those that know the political and economic reality, NO GOVERNMENT will survive without HPI, which is why the abrupt U-Turn on mortgage limits.

And I was right again......

Turner said in a briefing this morning that by putting a cap on mortgages the regulator may disadvantage those first-time buyers without family support.

and

It also says that by limiting income multiples the "democratisiation of home ownership" will be adversely affected.

http://www.moneymarketing.co.uk/cgi-bin/it...h=341&f=342
Link to comment
Share on other sites

:blink:

I must have missed exactly how. Maybe you can explain.

You said there was an 'abrupt U-turn'. These were only rumours in the first place. How can there be an 'abrupt u-turn' on something that does not even exist ?

Fear. I do love it. ;)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Fear, palpable fear.

You can almost taste it in Hamish's posts these days. :lol:

:lol:

Nice try.

Thats not the taste of fear, it's the sweet smell of victory. :lol:

Yesterday, 3 times cap possible = Yes !! I will make a fortune on BTL !! Brilliant.

Actually what I said was if it happens I'll load up on BTL, but it's not going to happen.

Sure enough, it's not going to happen.

It must be amzing to be Hamish. Whatever happens you are a winner.

Thats the beauty of owning property and having savings.

Whatever happens, you are a winner.

Hedged bets, you see.

It comes from planning properly and acting early.

You could have been in a similarly good position, had you not frittered away a decade and just bought a flat for 40K like your brother did. :P

Link to comment
Share on other sites

:lol:

Nice try.

Thats not the taste of fear, it's the sweet smell of victory. :lol:

Hamish. We can all see through it. Please don't make it any worse for yourself.

Victory ? Victory in what sense ? Honestly - you need help. I am being serious. You have some clear sort of mental issue. I am no psychologist so I am not sure what it is. Maybe someone else can explain ?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You could have been in a similarly good position, had you not frittered away a decade and just bought a flat for 40K like your brother did. :P

What like ? A huge amount of savings. Zero debts. Zero hassles. The last 10 years of my life spent having fun rather than worrying about interest rates. Contract going to end soon and all I am thinking about is what I plan to do with maybe 6-12 months off. Just booked a holiday in the Alps. Then plenty fo time to relax before I decide when I go back to work.

Yes - you are spot on - what a poor position to be in. I am sure 99% of this country would be devastated to be dropped into my position. ;)

I would actually feel sympathy for you Hamish. But your recent rants have just shown through your true colours. A truly selfish person who simply wants and expects everything to go exactly your way. I can guarantee you it will not. Such a blinkered view on life is certainly not a good thing to have.

As I said - the fear is showing through loud and clear. Try and tone it down a little. Cheers.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

B0LL0X.

Let's examine that idiocy.

Pension plan-poor returns, most have been decimated by the recession, taxed heavily. Good way to defer retirement for a decade at the moment.

Stocks- I'm sorry, have you been living on Mars? Stock market down 50% from peak, yields laughable, lot's of people utterly wiped out..... you'd quite literally have been better off in BTL, with far less risk.

Precious metals. Gold up but risky and volatile, Silver volatile and not doing much in terms of real gains, Platinum down, physical possession and secure storage difficult and carries expensive premiums for all of the above bar silver, and if TSHTF they'll be useless anyway. You can't eat or live in a small lump of metal. I own some Gold and it's done well, but it's not a viable option for most.

Indeed, speculation in markets of all kinds is fraught with risk. There are but few routes to financial independence. As you are finding out, a pay-packet and mortgage debt is not one of them.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

FSA chairman Lord Turner’s more salient recommendations from section two are as follows:

A cap on gross leverage (p. 67).

Creating counter-cyclical capital buffers (p. 61) and the inclusion of “economic cycle reserves” in banks’ accounts.

Regulating credit rating agencies (p. 76).

Figure out a way to structure pay so that it doesn’t encourage excessive risk taking (p. 79).

Regulation of SIVs and other offshore entities (p.70).

A tougher approach from the FSA, including possible oversight of banks’ accounts (p. 88).

Don't worry about it guys. Banks are heading into a new era of regulation.

More transparency, less gambling in hedge funds and dodgy backdoor investments.

Increased fees, tighter entry requirements, reduced leverage, and a lot less money to lend in general.

Combine that with increased state taxation, rising BOE IR's, rising unemployment, and boomers retiring, and....

...property will continue to do a Ewan and Charlie (long way down).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not at all, I just know they vastly outnumber the people who will buy in the next few years.

Check out the transaction number differentials in the last crash, now check out the transaction number differentials today. :lol:

10-1 is probably a conservative estimate!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I suspect the FSA got an almighty kicking over the last few days from those that know the political and economic reality, NO GOVERNMENT will survive without HPI, which is why the abrupt U-Turn on mortgage limits. :lol::lol::lol::lol:

I suspect they want the market moving again so they can get there hands on Stamp duty money again, that must have been a huge earner in the boom times, they must be missing all that tax money now.

Also as you point out an election in just over a year, without HPI, They have not got a cats chance of winning, it will be interesting to see what other measures they put in place to promote a recovery.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.





×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.