agmoldham Posted March 8, 2009 Share Posted March 8, 2009 I love speculating on what will happen to the stock market and like most people I'm invaraibly wrong. I was just wondering what effect the government insurance scheme will have on the Lloyds share price tomorrow. I really can't see any point in holding shares in the bank sector at the moment as dividends will be non existant for the next five years and there's a good chance you will lose your money altogether when they are fully nationalised. The banks that are run by the government are now effectively a political BOE. There's no future in them whatsoever as they will be run for political expediency rather than commercial reasons. It could be argued that this is a good thing for the economy, but certainly not for shareholders. So after saying all that my forecast for the closing price on Monday is 56 based on my original observation. Quite a clever trick though, because I've got both sides covered bearing in mind I really think it should go down! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
expatowner Posted March 8, 2009 Share Posted March 8, 2009 32p Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
injustice Posted March 8, 2009 Share Posted March 8, 2009 Playing with Excel. Took the price since 6th August 08, calculated average, created a graph, added a trendline, shares hit zero !st April 2009. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Executive Sadman Posted March 8, 2009 Share Posted March 8, 2009 Most of this was revealed thursday night though, and the price went...up...4%. Similarly when the scheme was done for RBS and govt control went from 70% to 84% their share price went up too. Then again 43% control to 65-77% is a much bigger change! I guess holding bank shares atm you have to treat a bit like fledgling companies ie a bit of a gamble, hence the +/1>10% daily moves in share price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
interestrateripoff Posted March 8, 2009 Share Posted March 8, 2009 http://www.londonsummit.gov.uk/en/ Perfect timing for this meeting then. I hope the charts are right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
agmoldham Posted March 8, 2009 Author Share Posted March 8, 2009 Playing with Excel. Took the price since 6th August 08, calculated average, created a graph, added a trendline, shares hit zero !st April 2009. April fools day. What a shame for the people that held shares in Lloyds and that probably includes me, since I'm sure some of my pensions/investments will hold Lloyds shares. :angry: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A.steve Posted March 8, 2009 Share Posted March 8, 2009 Erm - at a tangent... I'm less concerned by how the price moves - and more concerned by who will be doing the buying, and who is selling. If private investors are selling and institutional investors are buying (pretty much at any price) I'd be worried that this indicates a breech of fiduciary duty. If the buyers are private, I'd be very interested to establish if we're looking at a few large-scale investors... or if we're looking at gamblers taking small stakes 'just in case the news is completely misleading." Is this sort of information available to anyone other than exchange insiders? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
agmoldham Posted March 8, 2009 Author Share Posted March 8, 2009 Erm - at a tangent...I'm less concerned by how the price moves - and more concerned by who will be doing the buying, and who is selling. If private investors are selling and institutional investors are buying (pretty much at any price) I'd be worried that this indicates a breech of fiduciary duty. If the buyers are private, I'd be very interested to establish if we're looking at a few large-scale investors... or if we're looking at gamblers taking small stakes 'just in case the news is completely misleading." Is this sort of information available to anyone other than exchange insiders? I have three neighbours who have never traded before and who have all now bought Lloyds shares. All three have bought and sold Lloyds once at a moderate profit and then bought them again ... sometimes at a higher price than they sold at ... I kid you not! There respective prices are 70p, 57p and 47p. They have all put about a grand into them which isn't a massive amount, but it just seems very strange to me. I also know someone else who never dealt in shares who put 10 grand into Barclays shares at 190 and then took out a 10 grand loan to buy more Barclays shares at 97p. Is this sort of thing common or is it just the people I know have lost their common sense? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the end is a bit nigher Posted March 8, 2009 Share Posted March 8, 2009 Wednesday, big decision day in the U.S. regarding accounting practices. Financial stocks in particular could take off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Methinkshe Posted March 8, 2009 Share Posted March 8, 2009 I have three neighbours who have never traded before and who have all now bought Lloyds shares. All three have bought and sold Lloyds once at a moderate profit and then bought them again ... sometimes at a higher price than they sold at ... I kid you not! There respective prices are 70p, 57p and 47p. They have all put about a grand into them which isn't a massive amount, but it just seems very strange to me. I also know someone else who never dealt in shares who put 10 grand into Barclays shares at 190 and then took out a 10 grand loan to buy more Barclays shares at 97p. Is this sort of thing common or is it just the people I know have lost their common sense? I think it is indicative of a market that has become a gambling arena and where investment in profitable companies is very much a minor consideration. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Backbone Posted March 8, 2009 Share Posted March 8, 2009 Erm - at a tangent...I'm less concerned by how the price moves - and more concerned by who will be doing the buying, and who is selling. If private investors are selling and institutional investors are buying (pretty much at any price) I'd be worried that this indicates a breech of fiduciary duty. If the buyers are private, I'd be very interested to establish if we're looking at a few large-scale investors... or if we're looking at gamblers taking small stakes 'just in case the news is completely misleading." Is this sort of information available to anyone other than exchange insiders? Everyone is going on about this government guarantee scheme. What they should really be asking about are the implications of the S&P downgrade of the bank's credit ratings late Friday afternoon and how this will impact the bank's funding position. It does not look like the implications have been discussed yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grey shark Posted March 8, 2009 Share Posted March 8, 2009 I have three neighbours who have never traded before and who have all now bought Lloyds shares. All three have bought and sold Lloyds once at a moderate profit and then bought them again ... sometimes at a higher price than they sold at ... I kid you not! There respective prices are 70p, 57p and 47p. They have all put about a grand into them which isn't a massive amount, but it just seems very strange to me. I also know someone else who never dealt in shares who put 10 grand into Barclays shares at 190 and then took out a 10 grand loan to buy more Barclays shares at 97p. Is this sort of thing common or is it just the people I know have lost their common sense? Just a selection of amateur traders , gamblers and speculaters , 12 months ago Lloyds share price was around £4.50 they just can't believe that such a once great bank is now trading around 40p they have no inside info so there just taking a punt ........ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimjones Posted March 8, 2009 Share Posted March 8, 2009 I bought £5k of RBS at 11p and sold at 22p - which was all luck - but made me 5k! Unfortunately I'm about to lose the majority of the 1k I have in lloyds (which I "invested" out of the rbs money!).. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
agmoldham Posted March 9, 2009 Author Share Posted March 9, 2009 Well as predicted I got it wrong and Lloyds ended up on the day! I can't really see why that should happen bearing in mind it is being run by Gordon Brown and he's not got a particularly good record when it comes to running anything ... except the economy into the ground. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest DisposableHeroes Posted March 9, 2009 Share Posted March 9, 2009 (edited) Well as predicted I got it wrong and Lloyds ended up on the day! I can't really see why that should happen bearing in mind it is being run by Gordon Brown and he's not got a particularly good record when it comes to running anything ... except the economy into the ground. It personifies the markets for what they are. Edited March 9, 2009 by DisposableHeroes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonpo Posted March 9, 2009 Share Posted March 9, 2009 (edited) Ok well here is my TR-1 form Today I purchased 2579 LOLY Shares at an average price of 38.X p per share. they have made me a 'level 1' profit of 127GBP today my reasoning is Thus if zanuLIBOR wanted em they whould have had em.... HBOS-> LLOY are like the most widly held share amongs uk private investors the government have a lot of votes to loose by expropriating em the freshly printed money will be going straight into the pockets of gilt dealers LLOY will have a lot of gilts and corp bonds... APS is generous considering what cr@p these guys had on their balance sheet the terms of the deal are VERY generous to LLOY holders LLOY are going to have a monopoply on the UK market and all the government backing that HMgov can throw at them. BOE has bailed em out and wil continue to do so using the new secret banking laws... the government is going to keep em on life support so they can sell them on for a 'profit' once they make a profit.. of course it wont actually be a profit.... the amount of state aid these guys have got is unprecedented edited to say its a punt... I did it because i want to have some skin in the game so to speak.. Edited March 9, 2009 by jonpo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mick Dundee Posted March 9, 2009 Share Posted March 9, 2009 I think that banking shares at the moment are a very good investment as a retirement fund. You will never buy banking shares at this price again. The Government is committed to ensuring the banking sectors does not go bust. So what have you got to lose. If you invested £20,000 in RBS today at 19.00p. The you would have 105,253 shares in RBS. Nowe lets move forward say 20 or 30 years and maybe banking shares will once again reach £7.00 a share then sold your profit would be. £7.00 x 105,253 = £736,771 All for £20,000 invested. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Executive Sadman Posted March 9, 2009 Share Posted March 9, 2009 Most of this was revealed thursday night though, and the price went...up...4%. Similarly when the scheme was done for RBS and govt control went from 70% to 84% their share price went up too. Then again 43% control to 65-77% is a much bigger change! I guess holding bank shares atm you have to treat a bit like fledgling companies ie a bit of a gamble, hence the +/1>10% daily moves in share price. Well lloyds finished up 4% too. The taxpayer is done for. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonpo Posted March 9, 2009 Share Posted March 9, 2009 I think that banking shares at the moment are a very good investment as a retirement fund. You will never buy banking shares at this price again.The Government is committed to ensuring the banking sectors does not go bust. So what have you got to lose. If you invested £20,000 in RBS today at 19.00p. The you would have 105,253 shares in RBS. Nowe lets move forward say 20 or 30 years and maybe banking shares will once again reach £7.00 a share then sold your profit would be. £7.00 x 105,253 = £736,771 All for £20,000 invested. you forgot compound dividends .... but as you say could be a shrewd long term investment considering the gov is willing to dig itself further into debt and print money to protect the banks... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest DisposableHeroes Posted March 9, 2009 Share Posted March 9, 2009 Ok well here is my TR-1 formToday I purchased 2579 LOLY Shares at an average price of 38.X p per share. they have made me a 'level 1' profit of 127GBP today my reasoning is Thus if zanuLIBOR wanted em they whould have had em.... HBOS-> LLOY are like the most widly held share amongs uk private investors the government have a lot of votes to loose by expropriating em the freshly printed money will be going straight into the pockets of gilt dealers LLOY will have a lot of gilts and corp bonds... APS is generous considering what cr@p these guys had on their balance sheet the terms of the deal are VERY generous to LLOY holders LLOY are going to have a monopoply on the UK market and all the government backing that HMgov can throw at them. BOE has bailed em out and wil continue to do so using the new secret banking laws... the government is going to keep em on life support so they can sell them on for a 'profit' once they make a profit.. of course it wont actually be a profit.... the amount of state aid these guys have got is unprecedented edited to say its a punt... I did it because i want to have some skin in the game so to speak.. Good punt. In these markets though, it's always worth remembering that, otherwise geed kills. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonpo Posted March 9, 2009 Share Posted March 9, 2009 Good punt. In these markets though, it's always worth remembering that, otherwise geed kills. yep - the way I looked at it I have maybe a 50% chance of being wiped out. and a 50% of more than doubling my money, the other major shareholder has a lot of clout and access to a sterling denominated printing press.. an nice hedge against continued stupid bailouts i think... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daft Boy Posted March 9, 2009 Share Posted March 9, 2009 I recall the expert hedge fund manager who bought up millions of Northern Rock shares at a bargain price . I recall he lost every penny when they were nationalised . My, did he kick up a fuss. Will it happen to RBS and Lloyds ? The markets think so. That why the shares are basically penny shares. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonpo Posted March 9, 2009 Share Posted March 9, 2009 I recall the expert hedge fund manager who bought up millions of Northern Rock shares at a bargain price . I recall he lost every penny when they were nationalised . My, did he kick up a fuss.Will it happen to RBS and Lloyds ? The markets think so. That why the shares are basically penny shares. yeah there were two of them an Ex USB trader named John Wood and Philip Richards of RAB capital... while full nationalisation is certainly on the cards im somewhat willing to bet against it this time... for the reasons ive outlined above rock had undergone a full retail run. HBOS and RBS have not... the shemes introduced since the rock run are numerous and diverse and the tripartie authorities are now fully armed to shore up confidence by providing any stealth bailouts needed... government is likely to want to further burn 'spivs' short selling the banks... it does this by handing them large quantities of cash .... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daft Boy Posted March 9, 2009 Share Posted March 9, 2009 Not sure if it was Alistair Darling or Clint Eastwood who said " Do you feel lucky punk ? well do you ?" Fortune favours the brave but banktrupcy favours the barmy (daft boy 2009) its a hard call Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonpo Posted March 9, 2009 Share Posted March 9, 2009 Upon accession to the Scheme, the Group will pay a fee to HM Treasury of £15.6 billion. This fee will be amortised over an estimated 7 year period. The proceeds of this fee will be applied by HM Treasury in subscribing for an issue by Lloyds Banking Group plc of B Shares, carrying a dividend of the greater of 7 per cent per annum and 125 per cent of the dividend on ordinary shares. The B Shares will constitute core tier 1 capital. A summary of the expected terms of the B Shares is set out in Appendix 1. The overall cost to the Group of participating in the Scheme, as a percentage of the reduction in risk-weighted assets, totals 20.9 per cent. The B Shares, which are non-voting, are convertible at any time at the holder's option into ordinary shares in Lloyds Banking Group plc at a price of 115 pence per ordinary share, and are mandatorily convertible into ordinary shares at that price if the volume weighted average trading price of the ordinary shares for 20 trading days in any 30 trading day period equals or exceeds 150 pence. The Group has not entered into any agreement to restrict the utilisation of any existing or future UK tax losses or allowances so if the prefs ever convert thats 2K for me The significant increase in the Group's capital resources will come from an approximate £194 billion reduction in the Group's risk weighted assets and the issue of £15.6 billion of B Shares to HM Treasury and is stated after allowing for the deduction from tier 1 capital of 50 per cent of the unprovided first loss exposure in the Covered Assets, less relevant fair value adjustments. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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